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SIA
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SIA revived
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brchkho1
Master |
26-Nov-2020 13:28
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It takes time for the vaccines to be given to all. Besides, there are still people don' t believe the effectiveness of these vaccines as well as those hardcore fellows who are now stil refusing putting on the masks too. It' s a hard, long way of battle ahead to fight. 
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Ligaya
Master |
26-Nov-2020 11:28
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Am not an financial engineer in this bond algorithm but I do understand Temasek has the strategic interest to buy time and 40% of the unsubscribed issue was taken by Temasek. The way this bond is restructured to retailers seems a novel way of  national JV-bond  between government and retail subscribers, with the full backing of government picking up remaining tabs so should have no doubt on SIA defaulting.  Isn' t the bond issue collateralized with the outstanding shares at the whims of SIA to redeem with no interest payable for the first 4 years and subsequent 4% from year 4, compounded to 6% end of 10-yr term?  The mechanism of this bond seems to buy time so the question is will SIA redeem before maturity and if so, still impact on dilution?
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Joelton
Supreme |
26-Nov-2020 11:24
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Singapore Airlines gains nearly 17% on the week
 
SINGAPORE Airlines' (SIA) share price has been making steady gains for two days on heavy volumes.
 
The stock jumped 8.2 per cent or S$0.36 on the day to S$4.77 at around 9.15am on Wednesday. That' s about 15.7 per cent higher than Monday' s close, before the rally began, and 16.6 per cent above Friday' s close.
 
It eased slightly to trade at S$4.64 as at 11.12am on Wednesday, up S$0.23 or 5.2 per cent, with 25.2 million shares changing hands.
 
By value, SIA was the most actively traded counter on the Singapore bourse on Wednesday morning.
 
The bulk of its volume came from large trades - each valued at more than S$150,000. Almost a hundred such large trades were done as at 10.59am on Wednesday, according to ShareInvestor data.
 
The counter started climbing on Tuesday amid active trading, surging 8.4 per cent or S$0.34 to close at S$4.07 on 34.1 million shares.
 
That' s nearly seven times its average daily turnover of about five million shares, based on the monthly average of SIA' s cumulative trading volume during the last three months, according to the Singapore Exchange' s website.
 
The last time it closed above such levels was on May 5, the last day of cum-rights trading before SIA' s S$8.8 billion cash call which included a rights issue of shares and a 10-year mandatory convertible bond (MCB).
 
The dip in SIA' s share price on Monday, following the last-minute postponement of the Singapore-Hong Kong air travel bubble, was less severe than the drop seen in the stock of its Hong Kong peer, Cathay Pacific Airways.
 
SIA finished Monday 0.5 per cent or S$0.02 lower, while Cathay Pacific fell 4.2 per cent or HK$0.30 to end at HK$6.83, according to ShareInvestor data.
 
Cathay Pacific likewise recovered on Tuesday, advancing 7.8 per cent to HK$7.36 at the close, before moving up further by about 1 per cent to trade at HK$7.43 as at 10.48am on Wednesday.
 
The air travel bubble was put on hold at the eleventh hour, less than 24 hours before the scheduled launch on Sunday. A flight each from SIA and Cathay Pacific were originally planned to take off at 10am.
 
The Singapore and Hong Kong governments will announce in early December as to when the flights will restart.
 
CGS-CIMB wrote in a research note on Monday that while the suspension of the bubble was disappointing, it will likely be part of " a series of stops and starts on the arduous road to recovery" .
 
Investors have also been optimistic about the impending arrival of Covid-19 vaccines, pushing SIA' s stock to outperform the Straits Times Index by 5.3 per cent in the past month, CGS-CIMB analyst Raymond Yap noted on Monday.
 
He reiterated its " add" call on SIA and target price of S$4.57 then, and said that " patient investors with a one-year horizon should be able to reap the rewards of upcoming Covid-19 vaccinations" . CGS-CIMB recommended investors to buy on any dips.
 
Separately, SIA on Tuesday night announced S$500 million worth of 3.5 per cent, 10-year notes, to be issued on Dec 2. The offer, launched with an initial size of S$300 million, was upsized after " strong appetite was apparent from a select group of private investors" .
 
Net proceeds from the issuance will be used for general purposes, including to refinance existing borrowings.
 
With the S$500 million notes, SIA has raised about S$12.7 billion since the start of FY21. That includes S$8.8 billion from the rights issue and MCBs, S$2 billion from secured financing, S$850 million via a five-year convertible bond announced two weeks ago, and more than S$500 million through new committed lines of credit and a short-term unsecured loan.
 
On July 30, SIA' s stock sank to its lowest in more than two decades, after the flag carrier posted its biggest quarterly loss as travel demand evaporated due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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alleyboy
Veteran |
26-Nov-2020 11:20
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True. But vaccine available leow
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Isolator
Supreme |
26-Nov-2020 11:08
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Long to enjoy... | ||||
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ffff152100ffff
Master |
26-Nov-2020 10:30
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Keep on increasing, not easy to control...only left 1 wk...maybe will POP
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WiseInvestor
Elite |
26-Nov-2020 10:14
Yells: "Forex Biz Opportunity for traders!" |
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Hi Cherry,  There is no point claiming ' deflated BVPS" against SIA as SIA likely complied with IFRS - in other words, accounting principles. SGX has not queried SIA' s financial statement so far. It is subject to internal and external audit. Do let it be whether BVPS can call the auditors' attention seriously? I believe SIA has not been reporting false or misleading investors. What is your strong basis for claiming ' deflated' BVPS against SIA? I said that ' deflated BVPS' you claimed is only technical. In case of SIA liquidation, do you think $3.57 or $5.14 BVPS will be real? Of course, you will recieve $5.14 per share less necessary expenses in the form of ' liquidation' dividend since you paid for MCB and SIA right issue, that is, Dr Cash (in asset) and Cr MCB (in equity). No worry too much about BVPS since the market can surely give higher value over BVPS due to its faster recovery from Covid-19 due to vaccines and then stronger growth in the years ahead. Do investors care much about BVPS over the market value? If any, you can write to SGX regulatory or SIA' s management or auditor. Accountants do anit-dilution testing for diluted earning based on the convertible bonds, etc to see if this is not dilutive. If not, this is not computed in the diluted earning. E.g conditions attached to call options SIA issued and then collected proceeds to retire shares. If call option is not in money, then it is anti-dilutive. Anit-dilution provision protect any convertible debts or securities like bonds as provided by IFRS and regulation, Hope you will understand clearly. If you claim SIA' s BVPS is misleading investors, you can write to SGX regulatory or SIA' s auditor.  
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brchkho1
Master |
26-Nov-2020 10:13
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Need to watch HK' s infection number, if it' s failed to be control, the bubble may " pop" .
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Bic_cherry
Member |
26-Nov-2020 10:09
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It's a bond, not share dear, SIA liquidation, shareholders lose their pants first. Bond holders get paid proceeds before everyone else.
(Other forum mere, can pls fill in the blanks about which other creditors (besides this holding aeroplanes as collateral), can retrieve their funds first, SIA customers with air tickets reserved?).
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sia-raises-500-million-via-private-placement-of-10-year-bonds
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brchkho1
Master |
26-Nov-2020 10:08
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Yesterday was a shooting star and today' s candle is important. Need to see if trend will reverse.
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alleyboy
Veteran |
26-Nov-2020 10:06
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Recovering leow. Wont be surprised today end with green. | ||||
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alleyboy
Veteran |
26-Nov-2020 09:59
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I had the same thinking as u too. But do not wish to miss the flight. So i loaded at 417. Vested.
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vivacious
Supreme |
26-Nov-2020 09:55
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im struggling to invest in SIA because of this... perhaps safer entry point is below 4
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alleyboy
Veteran |
26-Nov-2020 09:47
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Yet 500 million placement shares fully subscribed.![]()
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SAVIORFOREVER
Supreme |
26-Nov-2020 09:42
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Their full year result is still billion dollars loss.
Trade with caution and DYODD
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vivacious
Supreme |
26-Nov-2020 09:38
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is it time to start nibbling SIA or more room to fall? | ||||
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Bic_cherry
Member |
26-Nov-2020 02:32
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Hi Wherel,
I have no quarrel with accounting standards, just with SIA deviating from fair and reasonable accounting principles to publish misleading BVPS information.
 
Its sad that the regulators have not stepped in to regulate SIA and news reports in publishing correct BVPS information, even after the soc gen saga where the TERP was determined to be $3.70 when it was otherwise commonly discussed to be $4.16 then.
 
The failure to ascertain true BVPS is simply a harbinger of bigger scandals to come.
 
The reticence of SGX or other regulators will only embolden companies like SIA and Hyflux to dress up their accounts with misleading information to dress up their share price, much to the detriment and loss of the average retail investor.
 
Hopefully, this forum is not just frequented with rowdy punters/ gamblers who do not care about value investing or the true BVPS of stocks discussed here.
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Bic_cherry
Member |
26-Nov-2020 02:20
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Hi WiseInvestor,
I have actually made the effort to learn balance sheets, especially double entry accounting (and other accounting methods) and the SIA method of deriving BVPS defies this simple accounting principals indeed.
 
 
 
I apologize for being unable to answer categorically, every one of your queries because there seems some problem with my formatting and I cannot display my writing in paragraph form.
 
 
 
The fact that MCB holders are entitled to any dividend payouts in the situation where the MCB are converted to shares after 10 years if cash redemption didn' t occur is enshrined in the non dilution clause in the MCB prospectus (any dividend payouts to normal shareholders is considered dilution to the SIA share price and thus the equivalent value is accrued to MCB holders in the context of MCB conversion to SIA shares).
 
 
 
The purpose of accounting financial reports is to present the financial and capital structure etc status of the business to investors, analyst and regulators.
 
 
 
Whilst SIA has indeed accounted for the $3.5B from MCB sales as equity, SIA has not recognised the future conversion of MCB into SIA shares, which is the preset default situation, which ought to be the default way of presenting the BVPS figure, until the day when the MCB are fully redeemed.
 
 
 
I believe that SIA has thus gone against basic accounting principles to switch classification of the MCB , as and were it is convenient to dress up their accounts, i.e. as equity to decrease their debt and then subsequently as debt to increase the BVPS, which is very deceptive to investors since two wrongs don' t make a right and by my calculation based on consistently applying MCB as equity, the BVPS is actually $3.57 as opposed to the wrongfully declared BVPS of $5.14 that SIA claims.
 
 
 
 
False/ misleading reporting of financial figures is a very serious offence and I believe that the BVPS calculation that SIA provided is based on false or wrongly applied accounting principles/ methods.
 
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ffff152100ffff
Master |
26-Nov-2020 02:20
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Big gap? Long John Silver to enjoy...
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Isolator
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 23:35
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Another gap up Tmr? Long to enjoy... | ||||
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