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Latest Forum Topics / Accordia Golf Tr  Post Reply
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pkli899
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 15:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I think offeror will response to Hibiki soon.
They know their offer will not go thru if no revision of price.
If they see great value in the golf courses, they will revise.
Hope to hear positive news within this few days.
Meanwhile, just wait patiently.
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laksaman57
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 14:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If Accordia Golf relist the golf course as J-Reits, at avg reit yield of 4.5% and 5.75ct dividend, the fair price in sgp dollars would easily be 0.0575/0.045 = $1.28

https://en.japan-reit.com/list/rimawari/
" Average Dividend  Yield  of All  J-REITs  (Day-on-Day),  4.37%.."

prophetjul      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 13:40) Posted:

Actually not affected.


According to Hibiki' s estimates, AGT actually has the natural capability to pay an annual distribution per unit (DPU) of between 5.5 Singapore cents and 6.0 Singapore cents, under normal weather conditions and at a healthy loan-to-value level.

AGT' s actual DPU for FY19/20 was 4.30 Singapore cents, not including the additional 1.2 billion yen it has promised to pay at a later date.

If the 1.2 billion yen as well as project payment reserves are added back to distributable income and adjusted for tax, AGT' s pro-forma DPU comes to about 5.75 Singapore cents, according to Hibiki' s estimates. Using a DPU of 5.75 Singapore cents and assuming a 7 per cent dividend yield, the per unit value for AGT can be around S$0.821, it said.


JerryMaple      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 12:22) Posted:

TBH,i am not tempted with a 80cent offer either.I am holding with a 100k shares on this counter with an average price of 69cent.This counter are better than most counters,some reits probably cant pay dividend during covid but this counter is only slightly affected..At least i am assured of dividend next half year
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prophetjul
Master
06-Jul-2020 13:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Actually not affected.


According to Hibiki' s estimates, AGT actually has the natural capability to pay an annual distribution per unit (DPU) of between 5.5 Singapore cents and 6.0 Singapore cents, under normal weather conditions and at a healthy loan-to-value level.

AGT' s actual DPU for FY19/20 was 4.30 Singapore cents, not including the additional 1.2 billion yen it has promised to pay at a later date.

If the 1.2 billion yen as well as project payment reserves are added back to distributable income and adjusted for tax, AGT' s pro-forma DPU comes to about 5.75 Singapore cents, according to Hibiki' s estimates. Using a DPU of 5.75 Singapore cents and assuming a 7 per cent dividend yield, the per unit value for AGT can be around S$0.821, it said.


JerryMaple      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 12:22) Posted:

TBH,i am not tempted with a 80cent offer either.I am holding with a 100k shares on this counter with an average price of 69cent.This counter are better than most counters,some reits probably cant pay dividend during covid but this counter is only slightly affected..At least i am assured of dividend next half year.

Starship      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 12:10) Posted:

Selling now translats to just a meagre 5c returns, which is just 1 year' s worth of dividends.

Long-term dividend investors of this counter (which most are) will not be tempted by such low returns.
Those who are quick to sell are probably traders who bought only after the deal was announced, hoping for quick big profits.

For this AGT deal, all long-term dividend investors must come together to thwart this evil scheme to short-change us.
 
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JerryMaple
Veteran
06-Jul-2020 12:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		TBH,i am not tempted with a 80cent offer either.I am holding with a 100k shares on this counter with an average price of 69cent.This counter are better than most counters,some reits probably cant pay dividend during covid but this counter is only slightly affected..At least i am assured of dividend next half year.

Starship      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 12:10) Posted:

Selling now translats to just a meagre 5c returns, which is just 1 year' s worth of dividends.

Long-term dividend investors of this counter (which most are) will not be tempted by such low returns.
Those who are quick to sell are probably traders who bought only after the deal was announced, hoping for quick big profits.

For this AGT deal, all long-term dividend investors must come together to thwart this evil scheme to short-change us.
 

nott1965      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:50) Posted:

I am in dilemma whether to hope the takeover will go through. If don' t go through, share price may drop to 0.6? accumulated when it was 0.63. Go through, lost of future earnings. Maybe I sell half first.
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Starship
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 12:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Selling now translats to just a meagre 5c returns, which is just 1 year' s worth of dividends.

Long-term dividend investors of this counter (which most are) will not be tempted by such low returns.
Those who are quick to sell are probably traders who bought only after the deal was announced, hoping for quick big profits.

For this AGT deal, all long-term dividend investors must come together to thwart this evil scheme to short-change us.
 

nott1965      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:50) Posted:

I am in dilemma whether to hope the takeover will go through. If don' t go through, share price may drop to 0.6? accumulated when it was 0.63. Go through, lost of future earnings. Maybe I sell half first.
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Starship
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 12:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What' s ridiculous is the Buy queue is much greater than the Sell queue everyday.
Yet the share price remains unchanged and even drops.

Right now, 6.9m Buy vs 3.1m Sell --- yet it' s in the Red.

Surely there' s someone manipulating behind the scene?

JerryMaple      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:28) Posted:

Most of them are afraid the deal might be withdraw resulting in a drop of unit price. That's why there is no movement. This is my guess.

Starship      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:00) Posted:

Stock price not going up despite the news.
Some unseen hands at work?
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Calmroom
Master
06-Jul-2020 11:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sellers might also be worried that angry investors
have written to the authorities to ask them
to investigate the contents
of Hibiki' s two letters.

Things could get very complicated if SGX
starts to query. 

 

JerryMaple      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:28) Posted:

Most of them are afraid the deal might be withdraw resulting in a drop of unit price. That's why there is no movement. This is my guess.

Starship      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:00) Posted:

Stock price not going up despite the news.
Some unseen hands at work?
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nott1965
Veteran
06-Jul-2020 10:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am in dilemma whether to hope the takeover will go through. If don' t go through, share price may drop to 0.6? accumulated when it was 0.63. Go through, lost of future earnings. Maybe I sell half first.
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laksaman57
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 10:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hibiki throwing out an indicative fair price would signal to potential bidder to do their sum and may announce their interest.
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JerryMaple
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06-Jul-2020 10:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Most of them are afraid the deal might be withdraw resulting in a drop of unit price. That's why there is no movement. This is my guess.

Starship      ( Date: 06-Jul-2020 10:00) Posted:

Stock price not going up despite the news.
Some unseen hands at work?
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Starship
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 10:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Stock price not going up despite the news.
Some unseen hands at work?
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laksaman57
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 09:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Japan avg dividend yield 4.37%
https://en.japan-reit.com/list/rimawari/

laksaman57      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 23:49) Posted:

Fair value = DPU (from golf mgt fee + reserve + net income) ÷ Japan reit yield
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laksaman57
Supreme
06-Jul-2020 09:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200703005012/en/CORRECTING-REPLACING-Hibiki-Path-Advisors-Proposed-Divestment
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laksaman57
Supreme
05-Jul-2020 23:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Fair value = DPU (from golf mgt fee + reserve + net income) ÷ Japan reit yield
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mrwise
Supreme
05-Jul-2020 23:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		$0.82 is a fair value now. Cannot sell at low price for sure!

More room to go up! Buy and hold! Dividend alone is good!

 
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pkli899
Supreme
05-Jul-2020 21:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Now that most knew, without a much higher offer, the deal is likely to be rejected.
Hopefully this sentiment will help push share above the offer price.
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pkli899
Supreme
05-Jul-2020 21:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SGX useless, must wait till others sound out then realised, then take action.
Weak in checking, very passive.

Starship      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 12:05) Posted:

They' re probably working overtime and huddled together burning midnight oil to hatch their next evil plot targetting Hibiki.
We must alert SGX Legco.

Also, Prof Mak Yuen Teen has just published an expose on Biolidics (view at Biolidics thread).
Hopefully he' ll also publish one on AGT as well........ soon!!!!!!



Calmroom      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 11:03) Posted:

After what Hibiki exposed,
no question in my mind that
the ' NO' vote will likely win
and deserves to win BIG.

The real question is how
this sly buyer might react.

If it ' obediently' raises
the offer, it knows this is
like saying Hibiki is 100% right
about everything in the
2nd letter.
 
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JoeJordan
Member
05-Jul-2020 12:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Fellow Unit Holders, Just Remember To Vote NO. Dosen't matter whether you are holding 1000 or 1 million shares, JUST VOTE "NO". Don?t let them take us for granted.
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Starship
Supreme
05-Jul-2020 12:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		They' re probably working overtime and huddled together burning midnight oil to hatch their next evil plot targetting Hibiki.
We must alert SGX Legco.

Also, Prof Mak Yuen Teen has just published an expose on Biolidics (view at Biolidics thread).
Hopefully he' ll also publish one on AGT as well........ soon!!!!!!



Calmroom      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 11:03) Posted:

After what Hibiki exposed,
no question in my mind that
the ' NO' vote will likely win
and deserves to win BIG.

The real question is how
this sly buyer might react.

If it ' obediently' raises
the offer, it knows this is
like saying Hibiki is 100% right
about everything in the
2nd letter.
 

prophetjul      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 08:34) Posted:

" Based on the golf course management agreement, AGT has been paying a substantial amount of fees to the parent company, around 5.7-6.0 billion yen each year, amounting to 11 per cent of total revenue. While it is difficult to judge the fair level of such fees, this fee seems to be positioned as a royalty and system usage fee for the business trust to be part of Accordia Golf Group. We are aware of similar types of management contracts with hospitality businesses and a generally perceived ' fair' range is around 15-30 per cent of gross operating profit (GOP). Our estimate shows AGT is paying approximately 33 per cent of GOP to the parent company. Internalising this fee stream would immediately create synergies between the two entities," Hibiki wrote.

The trust is paying so high fees yearly to this bunch of monkeys to screw us!   


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Calmroom
Master
05-Jul-2020 11:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		After what Hibiki exposed,
no question in my mind that
the ' NO' vote will likely win
and deserves to win BIG.

The real question is how
this sly buyer might react.

If it ' obediently' raises
the offer, it knows this is
like saying Hibiki is 100% right
about everything in the
2nd letter.
 

prophetjul      ( Date: 05-Jul-2020 08:34) Posted:

" Based on the golf course management agreement, AGT has been paying a substantial amount of fees to the parent company, around 5.7-6.0 billion yen each year, amounting to 11 per cent of total revenue. While it is difficult to judge the fair level of such fees, this fee seems to be positioned as a royalty and system usage fee for the business trust to be part of Accordia Golf Group. We are aware of similar types of management contracts with hospitality businesses and a generally perceived ' fair' range is around 15-30 per cent of gross operating profit (GOP). Our estimate shows AGT is paying approximately 33 per cent of GOP to the parent company. Internalising this fee stream would immediately create synergies between the two entities," Hibiki wrote.

The trust is paying so high fees yearly to this bunch of monkeys to screw us!   

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