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Latest Forum Topics / AusGroup    Last:0.009 --  Post Reply
Ausgroup - the train is moving soon
josephyeo
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01-Dec-2017 17:28     
 
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 Alert Admin
NT Port and Marine (NTPM):

The commercialisation of the fuel services business is well underway with the
first volume of fuel to the Port Melville fuel farm ordered for delivery at the end of
November 2017.
This represents a significant milestone which will under pin the success of the
NTPM business.

Hi FrancisLim, above is a quote taken from Ausgroup in it' s latest press release
on 1Q result. Prior to approval for operation bcoz of environment issues, this area
(NTPM) had been a drag on the company' s profit/(loss) and borrowing. With this
issue being resolved, it shld be better days ahead for Ausgroup.
Just my point of view. I could be wrong.


FrancisLim      ( Date: 01-Dec-2017 10:01) Posted:

Hi Joseph

There is another issue which I ommitted which is its port operations.  It wrote off subtantial amount of its investment in its Port Meville operations.  The commission was delayed due to environment issues, where the environmentists managed to get court to stop it, but was subsequently overturned.  This environment issue will continue to haunt the operations.  Also, as I googled, the co agreed to reduce the no of shipmens per year to accomodate the environment concern.  As you can see from the last quarter report, this sector continues to bleed operationally and the financing costs.  In fact, the bond issue, was for financing the port, and investment that did not turn up well.  Your view would be appreciated as always.

FrancisLim      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 16:03) Posted:

Hi Joseph

Thank you.  Agree with your views.  Just hope that the last impairment exercise which they did in prior year, was conservative.  No further impairments on their receivables. 
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happyharvest
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01-Dec-2017 11:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		long term $1  laugh

TraderBen      ( Date: 01-Dec-2017 11:19) Posted:

i have been holding this for 1 yr plus alrdy.. since those 8 cents days.. avg 300 lots at 0.055
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TraderBen
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01-Dec-2017 11:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i have been holding this for 1 yr plus alrdy.. since those 8 cents days.. avg 300 lots at 0.055
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FrancisLim
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01-Dec-2017 10:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Joseph

There is another issue which I ommitted which is its port operations.  It wrote off subtantial amount of its investment in its Port Meville operations.  The commission was delayed due to environment issues, where the environmentists managed to get court to stop it, but was subsequently overturned.  This environment issue will continue to haunt the operations.  Also, as I googled, the co agreed to reduce the no of shipmens per year to accomodate the environment concern.  As you can see from the last quarter report, this sector continues to bleed operationally and the financing costs.  In fact, the bond issue, was for financing the port, and investment that did not turn up well.  Your view would be appreciated as always.

FrancisLim      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 16:03) Posted:

Hi Joseph

Thank you.  Agree with your views.  Just hope that the last impairment exercise which they did in prior year, was conservative.  No further impairments on their receivables. 

josephyeo      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 15:53) Posted:



Hi FrancisLim, regarding your questions, i am of the view that the company will be able to resolve the issues.
They have listed quite a number of ways to resolve the issues. You may want to go back and reread their
comments in the latest quarter report.

Hi kangaroo ... i respect your views but personally am not too concerned about it. Those companies which
could not make it are already gone. What remain are likely to be the survivals. Banks/lenders and creditors are
quite enlightened and had been very supportive on all the restructuring that have been going on. Its to everybody
interest that company survive. In relative terms, Ausgroup seems to be much better .. far ahead of all those
having financial issues.

Personally, i think Ausgroup could be a potential " multi baggers" once they are through this difficult period. Its
a growing company with impairments n write offs being done. Except for the " lingering" debt issue as highlighted
by FrancisLim, the company is on a " clean sheet" and has 4 quarters of continuous profits.

Above is just my views and I could be wrong with my " feelings" or " assessments" . Pls draw your own conclusion.
On my side, i am going for long hold and will be waiting for the next few quarters of report so long as story line
remain unchange.

As an ending note ... invest in what you are comfortable with. Avoid those you are not comfortable with.

 


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TigTig
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01-Dec-2017 01:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yeah, impressed with their topline growth, don' t see much of this in O& G, most are barely surviving burning cash quarter to quarter. 

 

kangaroo11      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 16:15) Posted:

yesyesyes

josephyeo      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 15:53) Posted:



Hi FrancisLim, regarding your questions, i am of the view that the company will be able to resolve the issues.
They have listed quite a number of ways to resolve the issues. You may want to go back and reread their
comments in the latest quarter report.

Hi kangaroo ... i respect your views but personally am not too concerned about it. Those companies which
could not make it are already gone. What remain are likely to be the survivals. Banks/lenders and creditors are
quite enlightened and had been very supportive on all the restructuring that have been going on. Its to everybody
interest that company survive. In relative terms, Ausgroup seems to be much better .. far ahead of all those
having financial issues.

Personally, i think Ausgroup could be a potential " multi baggers" once they are through this difficult period. Its
a growing company with impairments n write offs being done. Except for the " lingering" debt issue as highlighted
by FrancisLim, the company is on a " clean sheet" and has 4 quarters of continuous profits.

Above is just my views and I could be wrong with my " feelings" or " assessments" . Pls draw your own conclusion.
On my side, i am going for long hold and will be waiting for the next few quarters of report so long as story line
remain unchange.

As an ending note ... invest in what you are comfortable with. Avoid those you are not comfortable with.

 


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kangaroo11
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30-Nov-2017 16:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yesyesyes

josephyeo      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 15:53) Posted:



Hi FrancisLim, regarding your questions, i am of the view that the company will be able to resolve the issues.
They have listed quite a number of ways to resolve the issues. You may want to go back and reread their
comments in the latest quarter report.

Hi kangaroo ... i respect your views but personally am not too concerned about it. Those companies which
could not make it are already gone. What remain are likely to be the survivals. Banks/lenders and creditors are
quite enlightened and had been very supportive on all the restructuring that have been going on. Its to everybody
interest that company survive. In relative terms, Ausgroup seems to be much better .. far ahead of all those
having financial issues.

Personally, i think Ausgroup could be a potential " multi baggers" once they are through this difficult period. Its
a growing company with impairments n write offs being done. Except for the " lingering" debt issue as highlighted
by FrancisLim, the company is on a " clean sheet" and has 4 quarters of continuous profits.

Above is just my views and I could be wrong with my " feelings" or " assessments" . Pls draw your own conclusion.
On my side, i am going for long hold and will be waiting for the next few quarters of report so long as story line
remain unchange.

As an ending note ... invest in what you are comfortable with. Avoid those you are not comfortable with.

 

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FrancisLim
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30-Nov-2017 16:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Joseph

Thank you.  Agree with your views.  Just hope that the last impairment exercise which they did in prior year, was conservative.  No further impairments on their receivables. 

josephyeo      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 15:53) Posted:



Hi FrancisLim, regarding your questions, i am of the view that the company will be able to resolve the issues.
They have listed quite a number of ways to resolve the issues. You may want to go back and reread their
comments in the latest quarter report.

Hi kangaroo ... i respect your views but personally am not too concerned about it. Those companies which
could not make it are already gone. What remain are likely to be the survivals. Banks/lenders and creditors are
quite enlightened and had been very supportive on all the restructuring that have been going on. Its to everybody
interest that company survive. In relative terms, Ausgroup seems to be much better .. far ahead of all those
having financial issues.

Personally, i think Ausgroup could be a potential " multi baggers" once they are through this difficult period. Its
a growing company with impairments n write offs being done. Except for the " lingering" debt issue as highlighted
by FrancisLim, the company is on a " clean sheet" and has 4 quarters of continuous profits.

Above is just my views and I could be wrong with my " feelings" or " assessments" . Pls draw your own conclusion.
On my side, i am going for long hold and will be waiting for the next few quarters of report so long as story line
remain unchange.

As an ending note ... invest in what you are comfortable with. Avoid those you are not comfortable with.

 

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josephyeo
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30-Nov-2017 15:53     
 
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Hi FrancisLim, regarding your questions, i am of the view that the company will be able to resolve the issues.
They have listed quite a number of ways to resolve the issues. You may want to go back and reread their
comments in the latest quarter report.

Hi kangaroo ... i respect your views but personally am not too concerned about it. Those companies which
could not make it are already gone. What remain are likely to be the survivals. Banks/lenders and creditors are
quite enlightened and had been very supportive on all the restructuring that have been going on. Its to everybody
interest that company survive. In relative terms, Ausgroup seems to be much better .. far ahead of all those
having financial issues.

Personally, i think Ausgroup could be a potential " multi baggers" once they are through this difficult period. Its
a growing company with impairments n write offs being done. Except for the " lingering" debt issue as highlighted
by FrancisLim, the company is on a " clean sheet" and has 4 quarters of continuous profits.

Above is just my views and I could be wrong with my " feelings" or " assessments" . Pls draw your own conclusion.
On my side, i am going for long hold and will be waiting for the next few quarters of report so long as story line
remain unchange.

As an ending note ... invest in what you are comfortable with. Avoid those you are not comfortable with.

 
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kangaroo11
Veteran
30-Nov-2017 15:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes second that! Since they cant use the trade lines for bonds repayments, they are conserving the cash to try and clear the bonds that is due pretty soon in Q3 2018, so nett nett after bond repayment, cash balance could drop very significantly...

FrancisLim      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 14:56) Posted:

Take the net cash or net debt in this case.  The bulk is in Notes which is maturing 2018.  So less liquidity stress, and they may extend the maturity date.

kangaroo11      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 14:10) Posted:

Just sharing!
While they have $50+ mil of cash which is commendable, also noted they are drawing down funds on their trade lines.
So if you truely have spare cash, would you just parked the money in your bank acccount and draw your OD lines and pay interest?
 


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FrancisLim
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30-Nov-2017 14:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Take the net cash or net debt in this case.  The bulk is in Notes which is maturing 2018.  So less liquidity stress, and they may extend the maturity date.

kangaroo11      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 14:10) Posted:

Just sharing!
While they have $50+ mil of cash which is commendable, also noted they are drawing down funds on their trade lines.
So if you truely have spare cash, would you just parked the money in your bank acccount and draw your OD lines and pay interest?
 

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kangaroo11
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30-Nov-2017 14:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Just sharing!
While they have $50+ mil of cash which is commendable, also noted they are drawing down funds on their trade lines.
So if you truely have spare cash, would you just parked the money in your bank acccount and draw your OD lines and pay interest?
 
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FrancisLim
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30-Nov-2017 13:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Joseph

There are 2 issues of concerns: (1) when you computed net assets, you may consider taking tangible assets.  (2) In its report, it mentioned about an ongoing court case to decide on the receivables and that will only be known in June 2018.  Please share your views.  Thanks

josephyeo      ( Date: 30-Nov-2017 13:34) Posted:



Hi papayaface, i respect and appreciate your views. Personally i am very comfortable w Ausgroup though it doesnt mean that i am right. I am very much comforted by these figures:

Profitability in millions ... latest quarterly:

Ausgroup ..... profit A$3.1 (3mth ending 30 sept)

Federal ... ..... profit S$3.1 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Mermaid ...... profit US$2.3 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Samudera ..... profit US$1.6 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Falcon .......... loss US$3.6 (3mth ending 30 sept)

Kim Heng .... loss S$6.4 (9mth ending 30 sept)

KrisEnergy .. loss US$51.7 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Ausgroup is clearly leading in terms of profitability

Revenue in millions ... latest financial year (full year)

Ausgroup ........ A$434.9

Samudera ........ S$260.4

Mermaid ......... US$185.3

Kris Energy ..... US$142.8

Falcon ............ US$106.8

Federal ... ........ S$107.5

Kim Heng ..... S$31.3

Ausgroup is clearly leading in terms of revenue

 

just sharing ...

 

papayaface      ( Date: 27-Nov-2017 07:55) Posted:

Hi joseph. Your comparison b/w o& g players is fair but those in the industry are burdened by their massive debt and interest servicing. Following your reasoning, the cash comonent is their only visible safety net and therefore can' t be ' freely used' cos once it ' dissappears' , investor' s confidence would surely be affected. Good luck        
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josephyeo
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30-Nov-2017 13:34     
 
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Hi papayaface, i respect and appreciate your views. Personally i am very comfortable w Ausgroup though it doesnt mean that i am right. I am very much comforted by these figures:

Profitability in millions ... latest quarterly:

Ausgroup ..... profit A$3.1 (3mth ending 30 sept)

Federal ... ..... profit S$3.1 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Mermaid ...... profit US$2.3 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Samudera ..... profit US$1.6 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Falcon .......... loss US$3.6 (3mth ending 30 sept)

Kim Heng .... loss S$6.4 (9mth ending 30 sept)

KrisEnergy .. loss US$51.7 (9mth ending 30 sept)

Ausgroup is clearly leading in terms of profitability

Revenue in millions ... latest financial year (full year)

Ausgroup ........ A$434.9

Samudera ........ S$260.4

Mermaid ......... US$185.3

Kris Energy ..... US$142.8

Falcon ............ US$106.8

Federal ... ........ S$107.5

Kim Heng ..... S$31.3

Ausgroup is clearly leading in terms of revenue

 

just sharing ...

 

papayaface      ( Date: 27-Nov-2017 07:55) Posted:

Hi joseph. Your comparison b/w o& g players is fair but those in the industry are burdened by their massive debt and interest servicing. Following your reasoning, the cash comonent is their only visible safety net and therefore can' t be ' freely used' cos once it ' dissappears' , investor' s confidence would surely be affected. Good luck        

josephyeo      ( Date: 26-Nov-2017 10:21) Posted:

Hi papayaface, thank you for your view and opinion. Personally, I am comfortable with Ausgroup
after doing some comparisions with other O& G companies. I like to share some figures:
Cash against debt      
Company Cash Debt Cash as % of debt
Mermaid (US$) 86.6 172.0 50.3
Samudera 30.6 68.9 44.4
Ausgroup (A$) 50.8 133.5 38.1
Kim Heng (S$) 7.0 22.0 31.8
Kris Energy (US$) 58.5 388.0 15.1
Federal 6.5 48.6 13.4
Falcon (US$) 10.7 172.9 6.2
       
As seen from above, Ausgroup' s debt is backed by 38% cash. This compares favorably      
with Falcon, Federal and Kris Energy which are backed by 6.2%, 13.4% and 15.1%. cash.      
Mermaid and Samudera debt are backed by 50.3% and 44.4% cash respectively.      
       
       
Debt against revenue (based on latest financial year) in millions      
Company Debt Latest full year Revenue Debt as % of revenue
Kris Energy (US$) 419.4 142.8 293.70
Falcon (US$) 172.7 106.8 161.70
Kim Heng (S$) 25.0 31.3 79.87
Mermaid (US$) 89.5 185.3 48.30
Ausgroup (A$) 150.7 434.9 34.65
Samudera 84.7 260.4 32.53
Federal 27.2 89.5 30.39
       
From the above you can see that for every 100 dollars sales (revenue) Federal has 30.39 dollars      
of debt, Samudera has 32.5 dollar and Ausgroup 34.6 dollar whereas Mermaid, Falcon etc are      
much higher. On relative terms .. Ausgroup looks quite good.      
       
       
Profit/(Loss) in millions      
Company Full year ' 16 Year to date ' 17  
Ausgroup (A$) 4.7 3.1 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Federal 7.2 3.1 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Mermaid (US$) 17.1 2.3 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Samudera (US$) -5.4 1.6 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Falcon (US$) -121.2 -3.6 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kim Heng (S$) -17.8 -6.4 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kris Energy (US$) -235.3 -51.7 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
       
In the full year earnings result, Mermaid leads w US$17.1, followed by Federal w      
S$7.2 and Ausgroup w A$4.7      
In the year to date ' 17 .. Ausgroup lead with a A$3.1 mil profit in the 1st quarter, followed      
by Federal.      
Note : Falcon' s and Ausgroup' s financial year is from 1st june ' 16 to 30 june ' 17,      
All others end in Dec ' 16.      

As seen from above, Ausgroup looks very good in relative terms, be it cash against debt, debt against
revenue and profitability
Above are my reasons for being vested recently. All the figures are taken from their financial result as
posted in the SGX.

Just sharing .. not an invitation to buy or sell.
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SgYuan
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30-Nov-2017 11:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Px 37
Now on dntrend EW
EW 42-w1 36-w2 39-w3?30-w4?33-w5?27 abc near w4
w1 6
w2 3
w3 9, tgt 30
w4 3, tgt 33
w5 6, tgt 27
Take this as a guide. No 100%
 
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TigTig
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29-Nov-2017 21:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good data.   

josephyeo      ( Date: 29-Nov-2017 13:22) Posted:

Ausgroup &ndash repost for clarity      
       
Cash against debt      
Company Cash Debt Cash as % of debt
Mermaid (US$) 86.6 172.0 50.3
Samudera 30.6 68.9 44.4
Ausgroup (A$) 50.8 133.5 38.1
Kim Heng (S$) 7.0 22.0 31.8
Kris Energy (US$) 58.5 388.0 15.1
Federal 6.5 48.6 13.4
Falcon (US$) 10.7 172.9 6.2
       
As seen from above, Ausgroup' s debt is backed by 38% cash. This compares favorably      
with Falcon, Federal and Kris Energy which are backed by 6.2%, 13.4% and 15.1%. cash.      
Mermaid and Samudera debt are backed by 50.3% and 44.4% cash respectively.      
       
       
Debt against revenue (based on latest financial year) in millions      
Company Debt Latest full yr rev Debt as % of revenue
Kris Energy (US$) 419.4 142.8 293.70
Falcon (US$) 172.7 106.8 161.70
Kim Heng (S$) 25.0 31.3 79.87
Mermaid (US$) 89.5 185.3 48.30
Ausgroup (A$) 150.7 434.9 34.65
Samudera 84.7 260.4 32.53
Federal 27.2 89.5 30.39
       
From the above you can see that for every 100 dollars sales (revenue) Federal has 30.39 dollars      
of debt, Samudera has 32.5 dollar and Ausgroup 34.6 dollar whereas Mermaid, Falcon etc are      
much higher. On relative terms .. Ausgroup looks quite good.      
       
       
Profit/(Loss) in millions      
Company Full year ' 16 Year to date ' 17  
Ausgroup (A$) 4.7 3.1 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Federal 7.2 3.1 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Mermaid (US$) 17.1 2.3 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Samudera (US$) -5.4 1.6 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Falcon (US$) -121.2 -3.6 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kim Heng (S$) -17.8 -6.4 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kris Energy (US$) -235.3 -51.7 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
       
In the full year earnings result, Mermaid leads w US$17.1, followed by Federal w      
S$7.2 and Ausgroup w A$4.7      
In the year to date ' 17 .. Ausgroup lead with a A$3.1 mil profit in the 1st quarter, followed      
by Federal.      
Note : Falcon' s and Ausgroup' s financial year is from 1st june ' 16 to 30 june ' 17,      
All others end in Dec ' 16.      

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josephyeo
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29-Nov-2017 13:22     
 
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Ausgroup &ndash repost for clarity      
       
Cash against debt      
Company Cash Debt Cash as % of debt
Mermaid (US$) 86.6 172.0 50.3
Samudera 30.6 68.9 44.4
Ausgroup (A$) 50.8 133.5 38.1
Kim Heng (S$) 7.0 22.0 31.8
Kris Energy (US$) 58.5 388.0 15.1
Federal 6.5 48.6 13.4
Falcon (US$) 10.7 172.9 6.2
       
As seen from above, Ausgroup' s debt is backed by 38% cash. This compares favorably      
with Falcon, Federal and Kris Energy which are backed by 6.2%, 13.4% and 15.1%. cash.      
Mermaid and Samudera debt are backed by 50.3% and 44.4% cash respectively.      
       
       
Debt against revenue (based on latest financial year) in millions      
Company Debt Latest full yr rev Debt as % of revenue
Kris Energy (US$) 419.4 142.8 293.70
Falcon (US$) 172.7 106.8 161.70
Kim Heng (S$) 25.0 31.3 79.87
Mermaid (US$) 89.5 185.3 48.30
Ausgroup (A$) 150.7 434.9 34.65
Samudera 84.7 260.4 32.53
Federal 27.2 89.5 30.39
       
From the above you can see that for every 100 dollars sales (revenue) Federal has 30.39 dollars      
of debt, Samudera has 32.5 dollar and Ausgroup 34.6 dollar whereas Mermaid, Falcon etc are      
much higher. On relative terms .. Ausgroup looks quite good.      
       
       
Profit/(Loss) in millions      
Company Full year ' 16 Year to date ' 17  
Ausgroup (A$) 4.7 3.1 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Federal 7.2 3.1 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Mermaid (US$) 17.1 2.3 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Samudera (US$) -5.4 1.6 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Falcon (US$) -121.2 -3.6 3 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kim Heng (S$) -17.8 -6.4 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
Kris Energy (US$) -235.3 -51.7 9 mths ending 30 sept ' 17
       
In the full year earnings result, Mermaid leads w US$17.1, followed by Federal w      
S$7.2 and Ausgroup w A$4.7      
In the year to date ' 17 .. Ausgroup lead with a A$3.1 mil profit in the 1st quarter, followed      
by Federal.      
Note : Falcon' s and Ausgroup' s financial year is from 1st june ' 16 to 30 june ' 17,      
All others end in Dec ' 16.      
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josephyeo
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28-Nov-2017 00:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am on long hold and am looking forward to Q2 results in feb' 18.

josephyeo      ( Date: 27-Nov-2017 23:18) Posted:

At 38cts company is capitalised at 57.2 mil.  Based on current earnings and assuming that it can
maintain it' s profit at current level the forward p/e would be around 4 ... this makes it the cheapest
company among the O & G companies or the cheapest.
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TigTig
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27-Nov-2017 23:58     
 
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Looking good.    LNG prospect: 

BT 12 Sep 2017
Following a restructuring, AusGroup returned to the black in the fourth quarter thanks to the performance of core projects in the Northern Territory and Western Australia liquid natural gas (LNG) processing sector.

It posted a net profit of A$2.4 million (S$2.6 million) for the three months to June 30, from a loss of A$165.1 million a year earlier.

The restructuring involved moving from supporting capital expenditure expansion in the mining sector to catering to operational expenditure and maintenance services in the energy (LNG processing), industrial and mining sectors.

Also been active in tackling it' s huge debt pile.    This co could be one of the survivors turning around earlier. 
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botakzaiisme
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27-Nov-2017 23:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Assuming profit doubles, even based on pe of 4, the sp will double to 8 cents

josephyeo      ( Date: 27-Nov-2017 23:18) Posted:

At 38cts company is capitalised at 57.2 mil.  Based on current earnings and assuming that it can
maintain it' s profit at current level the forward p/e would be around 4 ... this makes it the cheapest
company among the O & G companies or the cheapest.
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TigTig
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27-Nov-2017 23:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		  Quite surprised to see topline growth in this O& G company.   
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