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NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 18:25
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Don't think NOL Mgmt will read this forum. You can write in to them. I emailed them the last time when I noticed their web site is not updated with the latest financial results. To be fair, they responded but I couldn't remember if they also followed up finally as I didn't see the updates the few days thereafter.
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MetalTrader3
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02-Nov-2014 17:49
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Tips for NOL Management:
- Your freight pricing department should be sacked: Your freight rate priced few hundred above HPL, OOCL, Maersk Line for many of regions. That is why customers used other carrier instead, resulting in slots not filled in NOL. - Your previous director ordered too many new vessels amounting to 2 billions that results in subsequent years losses. Above resulted in undercapacity. Solution: - Pls work to make your freight rate as competitive as Hapad Lloyd. - Pls lease more new vessels to Maersk & sell more old vessels away as you don't need so much vessels.
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 14:51
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Write in to [email protected] to seek our rights to timely disclosure. NOL mgmt can't claim ignorance of the congestion which reportedly surface as early as May which was still in Q2 and well into Q3 when NOL has not been able to anticipate the significance of the disruption to mention it in statement 13 of Q2 report and should not continue to be missed out in Q3 report if they do not see it being resolved anytime soon. If NOL is not able to tackle these problems that emerged and only fixated on unwavering cost cutting measures as the only course of action, then a new team should be put in place who can be more responsive and passionate about the shipping business and to take into account the competitive nature and balancing customers' needs plus investors expectation.
NOL should shed more light on their strategic intent for the sale of APL Logistic - to raise capital, to restore financial balance, to reduce debt ratio and hence return to profitability, to focus on liners business if the synergy of one-stop service is no longer strategic, to give the liners more leeway to op for most competitive logistical support from any party, etc ? How about their plan for APL Terminal ? Do they forecast returning to profitability if they can significantly pare down debt and hence financial expenses esp given a strengthening US$ trend as their loans are likely to be denominated ? It has incurred in Q3 US$42m for exchange when paying off a loan. This is on top of the US$30m for cost of congestion. If these 2 items were not incurred, NOL would have reports about US$50m profit instead for Q3 ! All the results of their cost savings measures will not be sufficient to help them turn around if they are incompetent to tackle such emerging problems effectively and in a times manner. These are ongoing business and operational issues that are bread and butter. The sale of APL Logistic is the most material development for NOL now as I believe the investors have largely factored in the loss of FY14. The amount of what NOL can gain from disposing APL Logistic given it may even exceed US$1b will go a long way to revitalize NOL. It will not only provide cash but will lower debt, reduce interest expense and finance cost due to exchange for future settlement, very likely turn profitable again and increase net asset value and hence shareholders value ! Trade with caution as the market may swing either way as long as NOL remains so secretive on their plan. |
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pseudo
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02-Nov-2014 11:31
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Not saying there is inppropriety involved. just plain incompetent.
Just pointing out my views. All things considered, NOL seems to be on the side of customers and not investors. There is almost no GRI announcement and it looking at rates, it does not seem to be imposed. If the strategy is to attract more customers at more competitive rates, volume should be up. Since general took over, have u seen volume, top or bottom line iimprovement? No. Claims of over a billion savings. Got benefit investors? No. Fleet renewal directly helps bottom line? No only higher finance and depreciation costs... so back to square one. If one cannot retain a single dollar out of 2bil revenue a quarter... it just smells of incompetence. Plain and simple. They should not be getting away with telling investors generic PR scripted BS year in year out. "Tough business conditions" simply dont cut it.
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Lucky03
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02-Nov-2014 09:32
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Be careful when trading in NOL. It will not be the P&L that matters in the short term as investor has shrugged that off but the progress of the sale of APL Logistic. That's why we must put pressure on NOL through SGX to release timely disclosure of the status and not for retail investors like us to have to learn from newswire all the time. | ||||
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Lucky03
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02-Nov-2014 09:26
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http://theloadstar.co.uk/nol-apl-third-quarter-results-scfi-port-congestion/
Besides taking a hit of US$30m for congestion woe , NOL is also hit with an increased finance cost of US$42m due to exchange rate when making a repayment of loan. The total impact is US$72m which NOL was ill prepared for as their strategy seemed to focus primarily in cost cutting :(. NOL loans are likely mostly denominated in US$ and given US$ will likely to continue to appreciate, either NOL should quickly settle repayment or they have to aggressively hedge their exchange loss. The irony is that its revenue and asset are denominated in US$ and rise in US$ should translate positively to S$ but their loan exposure is killer in the opposite sense with a rising US$. Crucial for NOL CFO to have contingency plan to effectively address that. The success and timing of APL Logistic is much more crucial than just corporate realignment, staying focus but very critical for NOL turnaround. It is a lot more crucial than a mere sale and NOL has not been forthcoming with clarity and updates ! The investing industry is apparently pinning hope on NOL getting a better than expected sales of APL Logistic which can significantly change the landscape of NOL fortune and giving it a much needed twist of fate. NOL adds $23m to its losses this year as US west coast port congestion hits Q3 By Mike Wackett 10.31.2014 · Posted in Loadstar posts, Sea Add to favorites Posting a $23m net loss for third-quarter trading to add to the $152m of red ink in the first half of the year, Singapore-headquartered NOL said its APL container line had been adversely impacted by ?severe port congestion in Southern California?. Its ships have been held with many others at anchor off San Pedro Bay during the strong peak season as the two biggest US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach struggle to cope with larger ships, increased volumes and chassis and truck driver shortages, while employers and stevedores remain locked in negotiations over expired master labour contract. APL?s revenue for the period declined 2% year-on-year to $1.69bn, while average revenue per feu declined 1% to $2,343 earned on the 646,000 feu carried, which itself was down 3%. According to NOL, the bottom line damage was a result of a 1% increase in the cost of APL sales which, it said, was ?mainly due to a spike in North American operating costs?. However, according to the accounts, NOL also took a $42m hit from increased finance costs attributed to exchange rate losses incurred from the repayment of a Singapore dollar loan. Nevertheless, without the ?cost management and efficiency drive? savings of $290m achieved in the first nine months of the year, NOL?s position would have been much worse.?Our focus on increasing operation efficiencies remains on track,? said group chief executive Ng Yat Chung. ?Our unwavering focus on reducing fixed costs continues to show results,? said APL president Kenneth Glenn, adding that port congestion at LA/LB had ?adversely impacted our performance?. APL?s Los Angeles terminal has also been affected by the port-wide congestion He said: ?Given APL?s significant business presence in Southern California, we are working simultaneously on several fronts to urgently address these issues. This includes realigning our network to facilitate smooth cargo flow through the US west coast, and working with our partners on equipment and productivity challenges.? As well as the transpacific problems NOL also suffered from a ?persistent oversupply of shipping capacity?, which it said ?continues to negatively impact liner freight rates?. According to NOL?s operational report, APL?s vessels achieved respectable 90% utilisation levels in the first nine months of the year, and against this healthy load factor it should be possible to maintain freight rate discipline. But until now there has been little evidence of freight rate discipline, and discounting remains common. Indeed, Asia-Europe spot rates on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell to a new yearly low last week, tumbling, for the 12th consecutive week, to below $700 per teu. However, the SCFI?s Shanghai-North Europe leg jumped $615 per teu this week to $1,312, as carriers introduce 1 November general rate increases of almost $1,000 per teu, Freight broker FIS predicted a familiar pattern: the GRIs will not stick and rates will fall to around $1,000-1,100 per teu by the second week of November. Ominously, it said the jump in rates was ?too early for celebrations, with reports in the market that G6 carriers, including APL, NYK and OOCL, have begun to aggressively cut rates?. Meanwhile, the bright spot for NOL was APL Logistics, which achieved 8% revenue growth in Q3 on the same period of 2013, which augurs well for a proposed sale that could earn NOL a welcome $1bn in cash. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 01:09
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Even TODAY reported that NOL sent sale document and for bidders to submit by end Nov. The sale is expected to fetch minimum US1b.NOL remained silent with no disclosure to SGX........ 
Sunday 2 November 2014BusinessNOL said to invite bids for APL Logistics unitPublished: 11:17 PM, October 29, 2014
SINGAPORE &mdash Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), Southeast Asia&rsquo s biggest container line, has asked for offers for its APL Logistics unit in a sale that could fetch at least US$1 billion (S$1.27 billion), the Bloomberg news agency cited unidentified sources as saying. The company has sent sale documents to potential buyers and asked for first-round bids by the end of November, the sources said. NOL is forecast to post a fourth straight annual loss this year as slowing economic growth and excess capacity depress shipping rates. In the past two years, it has sold some vessels and its Singapore headquarters building to cut costs. NOL announced in August it is considering options for APL Logistics, including a sale or initial public offering. The unit accounted for 18 per cent of sales last year. There has not been any material development on the review and there is no assurance any deal will be concluded, NOL said in a response to Bloomberg today (Oct 29). CJ Korea Express, the country&rsquo s biggest courier delivery company, said this month it is considering an acquisition of APL Logistics. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 00:58
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SCFI rebounded strongly. 
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 00:23
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I had dropped a note to SGX asking them to seek clarity from NOL on the sales of APL Logistic. We can' t be getting updates from newswire like Reuters and Bloomberg when NOL Mgmt kept silent ! Sending sales document to interested paties is certainly material development which they stated that they will disclcose in response to the report by Reuters on Aug 20. That will at least indicate their decision to sell than to IPO which they stated then as yet to be concluded. As retail investors, we only learnt of this after Bloomberg reported. The only disclosue by NOL is the shares alloted to their CEO ! I' ll like to know what other plan that they may have or if they were approached by any bidder not only for APL Logistic, how about APL Terminal and even APL liner itself. NOL mgmt obviously has not been responsible enough to make any early disclosure. I can' t believe that we always have to learn of the latest development only from newswires and we have witnessed price movement with significant volume traded prior to the news. We should put more pressure on NOL to be more transparent with retail investors or privatise and run your own show !
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famouspinky
Supreme |
01-Nov-2014 22:03
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Dont tell me they pocket the money themselves??:)
They r just incumbant. Hopefully they wont let the share price drop to 50c then say close shop for good
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pseudo
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01-Nov-2014 21:48
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Thats not all...
Last year they commented that they want more spot market exposure and thereafter whip out the scfi chart on every q report to justify low rates.... where is the chart now? 3rd q spot rates were good. US east coast was even booming.... now still. BS. Look at oocl interim rpt. Transpacific up 6% in line with trade growth. If oocl or hapag lloyd - g6 members, coming reports do not cite congestion costs then this report is complete rubbish. Is APL taking one for the team? BS LALB ports has 13 operators all hit with 50mil costs? 500mil+ for the whole port? U can buy a whole new port already with that kind of money. 50m can also get u hundreds if not a thousand workers and equipment. BS. Next year the low sulphur rule kick in will be worst. This endless excuses have no ending!
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
01-Nov-2014 21:40
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Dear NOL Mgmt,
My advise (Alternative Superior Strategy): - Sell entire APL (Shipping) to different buyers. - Retain APL (Terminal & Logistics) This strategy will generate positive profits in hundred of millions b4 tax per quarter instantly. As only most profitable business are retained.
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Nov-2014 17:00
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What I'm upset and disappointed is that the mgmt do not even seem to take an interest to deep dive into trends and condition to look for creative way to break out or even identify growth and market positioning strategy anymore looking at what garbage they wrote for statement 13 of the financial report Q to Q ! Other than Q2 FY13, thereafter, they simply repeat and just made some minor adjustment to the wordings without any substance ! Seriously, Tamesek should sell away NOL soonest unless they can replace the current management team with a much more street smart, business savvy and passionate team. The market is not dead. Container volume is growing and ports are packed and resulting in congestion which apparent caught NOL totally off guard that they incur higher operating expenses to the tune of US$30m eating away a big chunk of the cost savings of US$90m derived in Q3FY14.
The weakness in Europe will be overcome once they carried out QE likely by year end as what Japan has just done while US ended theirs. Once Europe kicked off QE, there will be major infrastructure works that will require imports of raw materials and equipment and kick off consumption once job market improves. There is future but as long as NOL mgmt failed to plan for it to be ready to ride on the wave, their only strategy to cut cost will fail them then. Their failure to give regular updates of corporate developments including the divestment plan is unacceptable. Statement 13 in financial report for last 5 Qs. I'm very disappointed reading them .... :( 13. A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the industry in which the Group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the Group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months. Q2 FY13 - General market conditions and freight rates continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2013, with few signs of a quick recovery. Along with poor market demand, the container shipping industry remains burdened with over-capacity and weak freight rates. NOL?s cost base will continue to improve through operating efficiencies, aided by lower vessel slot costs with the delivery of its larger and more fuel-efficient ships. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group remains on track to deliver a better performance than in 2012. Q3 FY13 - General market conditions have not improved in the third quarter, resulting in a muted peak season. Volatile freight rates and over-capacity will continue. In spite of difficult conditions, NOL has delivered better year- to-date performance through its focus on operating efficiencies. The Group remains on track to deliver a better performance than in 2012. Q4 FY13 - Global economic growth prospects are uncertain. Conditions in the liner industry are expected to remain challenging due to continued over-supply of capacity. Liner freight rates will remain under pressure. The Group will continue its focus on managing costs and operational efficiencies with the aim to improve its financial performance in 2014. Q1 FY14 - Global economic prospects and trading conditions remain uncertain. Oversupply of shipping capacity will continue to exert pressure on liner freight rates.The Group aims to improve its financial performance in 2014, through its continued focus on cost discipline and drive for operational efficiency. Q2 FY14 - Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping capacity is expected to limit the pace of liner freight rate recovery. The Group aims to improve its financial performance in 2014, through its continued focus on cost management and operational efficiency. Q3 FY14 - Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the Group's cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track. The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Nov-2014 10:59
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NOL has been paying tax for 'profit' derived from its APL Logistic and Terminal when its liner is making loss. Normally, one may not squeeze as hard a bargain when using sister companies' services. In another words, APL Liners may not be getting the best bargain from APL Logistics and APL Terminal and ended up making them 'too profitable'. In fact , APL Logistic and APL Terminal should give best discount or even cross subsidies APL Liners. At least they can then save on taxes if 'nil profit' ! | ||||
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Lucky03
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01-Nov-2014 08:59
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NOL has more values in part than in whole. Like the Wall Street movie, we need a new breed of mgmt not so much to steer the company to profitability but rather to create shareholder values and derive maximum return for shareholders by divesting non core assets and finally selling away NOL to the highest bidder. There are many more people out there who are more passionate and domain savvy than the general and his team in steering a shipping company. When you listen to their analyst briefing, it lacked passion to turn the company around. It is like that lor kind of tone.
NOL has a history of failed attempt to acquire Hapag and to privatize itself. They are now better off to let Hapag or someone to acquire them instead. I'm not sure the last few days of price stability and high volume is because of any hope to see if Q3 will turn around or due to some corporate activities that shareholders are again kept in the dark ? Given that many are still expecting NOL to report a loss, it is probably due to the latter including sales of APL Logistics. It has been quite a few mths since Hapag merged with CSV and they have expressed interest in NOL so may be round the corner, soon after disposing of APL Logistic ? The last report on the Korean logistic firm interest indicated that the sale may be targetted for completion by end Nov. Just wish we can hear updates directly from NOL reporting to SGX rather than leaks from newswire or sudden interest and movements in the stock. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Nov-2014 02:34
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Wise words ! Thanks :)
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Kyoto2008
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01-Nov-2014 02:27
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Bro, with your persevering nature, many other counters you can look at and make a great deal of money from. You are very detailed, and indeed one of those who look in depth. If you use these talents on analysing other companies, it' s going to pay off very well in my humble opinion. And help many fellow investors too! Mgt if lousy will never make up for the attractiveness of the biz. I don know why SG like to own big names but always end up losing control.... in my opinion, they should sack the NOL mgt and put tough KPIs on new hires plus attractive bonus plans if they turnaround. Allowing those finance costs to repeat is really unforgiveable!
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Lucky03
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01-Nov-2014 02:15
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Thanks, Kyoto2008. I valued your advice. Actually, I started taking an interest in NOL because of the potential M&A opportunity including privatization. Along the way, as I monitor the market development, it is possible for NOL to turn around but the mgmt is indeed not aggressive enough in taking concrete steps to make that happen sooner than later. In the meantime, they are at mercy to circumstances beyond their control including over supply, high fuel prices (previously) and now port congestion.
Call me die hard but it may be a blessing in disguise as it is now forced to take action such as selling APL Logistic to pare down debts and staying more focus. It may also hasten interest for M&A including privatization. These will unlock value for shareholders.
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Kyoto2008
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01-Nov-2014 02:00
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Bro, referring to the first sentence, that NOL mgt is not going to make it. That' s what I said some months back, remember? I never imagined you would say this now. I find NOL mgt incompetent after looking through the financials some months back. The price could hv received a lift from asset sales, but if the mgt continues to mismanage, results will bring the price down eventually. Many counters to look at, why suffer at long last in a failing company. Frankly, I find many of the newsflash from you quite good and relevant. I don know if you would listen, but I still have to say that don waste your time on a sinking ship.
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Lucky03
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01-Nov-2014 01:46
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Although the over supply situation remained and freight rate is depressed, overall container volume is still rising but NOL reported lower volume. I'm vested with NOL and investing is not just about looking at P&L but also potential M&A activities. The Q3 result may hasten the timeline. What's best for shareholders is for NOL to divest key assets and take it private or sell away to realise the maximum potential based on valuation and market interest for consolidation and market share. Starting quickly with APL Logistic.
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