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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
Sunbrighten
Senior
30-Aug-2021 23:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hi wiseinvestor, if shortist buy rights issue on the market tomorrow, do they eligible to apply for any excess rights shares? if not, they can actually buy back the mother shares to recover the short and make a big profit already if they sold it at 16 cents as mentioned. thanks

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 20:35) Posted:

For example, Rights issue' s opening trading price is likely 1 cent tomorrow. In any case, shortist buy it back at 1 cent on the market plus 8 cents subscription price, totaling 9 cents.

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 18:36) Posted:

I am not sure of your last question. Anyway, yes for example, shortist having 100 short position (shares) is to be allocated 150 shorted rights by today, Then have the following options as mentioned earlier, depending on the market performance. 

1) Buy the 150 rights back on the market at possibly higher than 8 cents by the expiry date of rights trading.
2) Leave the new positions to expire, in which case, the rights will automatically be taken up, the new 150 shares will be shorted at the subscription price (8 cents).

Shortists can do math as a basis of short-covering decision, using formula. For example, (100 x [let' s say]16 cents) + (150 x 8 cents)/250 = 11.2 cents to break even. if less than 11.2 cents, the shortist make profit. If Shortist buy 150 rights back at 9 cents tomorrow, then the effective one is 11.8 cents. 

It is likely that shortists might have an early inside information about the coming rights issue plan together with SMM' s fundamentals weakened by Covid-19 pandemic so they want to short more. That is similar to SIA' s previous right issue experience, but SIA' s huge losses were already strongly defied by Mr Market
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better
Elite
30-Aug-2021 21:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Theoritically, it is possible to buy about 250 to 300 mother shares to cover the 100 shares short.

In practice, I think that would be very complicated as they might have borrowed scripts from multiple parties and the actual amount of allocated shares will differ from one party to the next depending on how many excess rights shares the lending counter parties choose to subscribe.

beng1102      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:35) Posted:

The can either buy rights or mother shares.  Either way price will go up.  However if many shareholders are selling rights or mother share then shortist will be too happy.

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:26) Posted:

For every 100 shares short after ex rights date, shortist have to buy back 150 rights (to subscribe at 8 cents) from the open market by 8th Sept to pay back the investors they borrowed the scripts to short.

The plan, I believe, is to keep the right price slightly higher than ' mother share price minus 8 cents' . This would convince many retail investors to sell some/most of their rights and try to subscribe for excess right shares at 8 cents. Whether the shortist can accomplish that depends on how many retail investors fall for their ploy.

The original 100 shares short can be bought back after the rights issue at a later date.

The 2nd rights exercise is quite different from the 1st in 2 aspects:

1) Temasek MO at 8 cents almost guaranteed that price will not drop below the exercise price of 8 cents in the ensuing few months.
2) Shareholders who subscribe for their right shares at 8 cents are not going to sell their shares below 8 cents (just like SIA at $3). During the 1st rights issue, SCI shareholders are given free SCM shares, therefore selling at whatever price can still be deemed a profit depending on their perception of SCM' s value
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beng1102
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30-Aug-2021 21:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The can either buy rights or mother shares.  Either way price will go up.  However if many shareholders are selling rights or mother share then shortist will be too happy.

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:26) Posted:

For every 100 shares short after ex rights date, shortist have to buy back 150 rights (to subscribe at 8 cents) from the open market by 8th Sept to pay back the investors they borrowed the scripts to short.

The plan, I believe, is to keep the right price slightly higher than ' mother share price minus 8 cents' . This would convince many retail investors to sell some/most of their rights and try to subscribe for excess right shares at 8 cents. Whether the shortist can accomplish that depends on how many retail investors fall for their ploy.

The original 100 shares short can be bought back after the rights issue at a later date.

The 2nd rights exercise is quite different from the 1st in 2 aspects:

1) Temasek MO at 8 cents almost guaranteed that price will not drop below the exercise price of 8 cents in the ensuing few months.
2) Shareholders who subscribe for their right shares at 8 cents are not going to sell their shares below 8 cents (just like SIA at $3). During the 1st rights issue, SCI shareholders are given free SCM shares, therefore selling at whatever price can still be deemed a profit depending on their perception of SCM' s value.

Abe2021      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:00) Posted:

Wiseinvestor, you are saying short position is eg 100 shares
They have to cover 150 rights plus the 100 shares. essentially 2.5 times 
Why would they want to short ?
Is there no other way to cover back.
They are also holding quite a substantial amount of shares. Anyway at this kind of price now, how many will want to subscribe ??
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better
Elite
30-Aug-2021 21:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For every 100 shares short after ex rights date, shortist have to buy back 150 rights (to subscribe at 8 cents) from the open market by 8th Sept to pay back the investors they borrowed the scripts to short.

The plan, I believe, is to keep the right price slightly higher than ' mother share price minus 8 cents' . This would convince many retail investors to sell some/most of their rights and try to subscribe for excess right shares at 8 cents. Whether the shortist can accomplish that depends on how many retail investors fall for their ploy.

The original 100 shares short can be bought back after the rights issue at a later date.

The 2nd rights exercise is quite different from the 1st in 2 aspects:

1) Temasek MO at 8 cents almost guaranteed that price will not drop below the exercise price of 8 cents in the ensuing few months.
2) Shareholders who subscribe for their right shares at 8 cents are not going to sell their shares below 8 cents (just like SIA at $3). During the 1st rights issue, SCI shareholders are given free SCM shares, therefore selling at whatever price can still be deemed a profit depending on their perception of SCM' s value.

Abe2021      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:00) Posted:

Wiseinvestor, you are saying short position is eg 100 shares
They have to cover 150 rights plus the 100 shares. essentially 2.5 times 
Why would they want to short ?
Is there no other way to cover back.
They are also holding quite a substantial amount of shares. Anyway at this kind of price now, how many will want to subscribe ???

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 10:58) Posted:

Don' t try to sell your rights entitlement or shares for the sake of buying excess rights issue at 8 cents. Excess rights is rights who are not taken up by other shareholders or are sold on the market. The reason is that hedge funds (shortists) have a professional strategy of making huge profit, i.e by buying the rights back at lower price on the market, leaving not much excess rights for other shareholders (who sell rights on the market from tomorrow) to obtain.

If the hedge funds buying the below said 373M rights back at lower price, then they still have 248M short position (shares) on 22 Sept 2021 when the new right shares will begin trading. 

Foolish traders who bought at price ranging from about 14.7 cents at the highest to 10.3 at lowest during the announced rights issue plan period, because their money will be lost if they currently dump more shares, and even sell rights for just loss.  Do your own math to make proper decision
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josemmm123
Master
30-Aug-2021 21:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		lowest not $0.001? 

sweet639      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:19) Posted:

SMM right is out tomorrow morning, the lower can go is $0.01, how many will buy this right?adding 0.08, the mother share 
is only 0.09, how to trade

central      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:10) Posted:

When How to check my rights entitlement in CDP?
Thanks.
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ahboy8
Member
30-Aug-2021 21:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Log in to your CDP account and check.. should be credited in already

central      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:10) Posted:

When How to check my rights entitlement in CDP?
Thanks.
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sweet639
Veteran
30-Aug-2021 21:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SMM right is out tomorrow morning, the lower can go is $0.01, how many will buy this right?adding 0.08, the mother share 
is only 0.09, how to trade

central      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 21:10) Posted:

When How to check my rights entitlement in CDP?
Thanks.
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central
Senior
30-Aug-2021 21:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		When How to check my rights entitlement in CDP?
Thanks.
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WiseInvestor
Elite
30-Aug-2021 20:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For example, Rights issue' s opening trading price is likely 1 cent tomorrow. In any case, shortist buy it back at 1 cent on the market plus 8 cents subscription price, totaling 9 cents.

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 18:36) Posted:

I am not sure of your last question. Anyway, yes for example, shortist having 100 short position (shares) is to be allocated 150 shorted rights by today, Then have the following options as mentioned earlier, depending on the market performance. 

1) Buy the 150 rights back on the market at possibly higher than 8 cents by the expiry date of rights trading.
2) Leave the new positions to expire, in which case, the rights will automatically be taken up, the new 150 shares will be shorted at the subscription price (8 cents).

Shortists can do math as a basis of short-covering decision, using formula. For example, (100 x [let' s say]16 cents) + (150 x 8 cents)/250 = 11.2 cents to break even. if less than 11.2 cents, the shortist make profit. If Shortist buy 150 rights back at 9 cents tomorrow, then the effective one is 11.8 cents. 

It is likely that shortists might have an early inside information about the coming rights issue plan together with SMM' s fundamentals weakened by Covid-19 pandemic so they want to short more. That is similar to SIA' s previous right issue experience, but SIA' s huge losses were already strongly defied by Mr Market!

Abe2021      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:00) Posted:

Wiseinvestor, you are saying short position is eg 100 shares
They have to cover 150 rights plus the 100 shares. essentially 2.5 times 
Why would they want to short ?
Is there no other way to cover back.
They are also holding quite a substantial amount of shares. Anyway at this kind of price now, how many will want to subscribe ??
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better
Elite
30-Aug-2021 20:34     
 
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 Alert Admin

New Tyra Topsides, Bridges Reach Danish North Sea

August 30, 2021

Credit: Sembcorp Marine (file photo)
Credit: Sembcorp Marine (file photo)
 


Big Roll Beaufort heavy transportation vessel, loaded with topsides destined for TotalEnergies' Tyra Phase 2 development off Denmark, reached the Danish North Sea on Sunday morning after a long journey from Singapore.

Singapore' s offshore platform constructor Sembcorp Marine in July completed the fabrication of two wellhead topsides, one riser topside, and two bridges for deployment at TotalEnergies&rsquo Tyra field redevelopment in the Danish North Sea.

The topsides and bridges sailed away from Sembcorp Marine Admiralty Yard Sunday, July 25. They will replace Tyra&rsquo s aging facilities to support further production.

Norwegian Energy Company (Noreco) TotalEnergies' partner in the project, confirmed Monday that the three Tyra East wellhead and riser platforms had arrived at the Tyra field.

" At the Tyra field, the world' s largest crane vessel, Sleipnir, is now in position to lift the three topsides off the vessel and onto the jackets. The lifting of the topsides will be followed by an installation period scheduled to take place during September. Progress on the five remaining platforms continues per schedule to meet the first gas date in Q2 2023," Noreco said.

Noreco, TotalEnergie' s partner in the project, said in November 2020, that the start-up of the Tyra Redevelopment was expected in the second quarter of 2023, and not in 2022 as previously planned, citing COVID-19 impact and restriction imposed at the fabrication yards.

Once online, the redeveloped Tyra will produce enough gas to power 1.5 million homes in Denmark, with production at peak expected at 60000 boepd.
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boyboy61
Supreme
30-Aug-2021 20:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Rights already in cdp account

beng1102      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 20:22) Posted:

Not yet received. 
SMM and keppel O& M must merge so SMM must have the money to buy keppel O& M.    The combined order book will allow the SMM to become profitable otherwise both could be unprofitable.

naoshingo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 19:27) Posted:

Lol..I see your point.
BTW, I still haven' t received the documents yet..has anyone received already?
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beng1102
Elite
30-Aug-2021 20:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Not yet received. 
SMM and keppel O& M must merge so SMM must have the money to buy keppel O& M.    The combined order book will allow the SMM to become profitable otherwise both could be unprofitable.

naoshingo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 19:27) Posted:

Lol..I see your point.
BTW, I still haven' t received the documents yet..has anyone received already??

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 18:15) Posted:

I am of the opinion that Sembmarine need not call for the 2nd rights issue so soon. They still have close to S$800 mil cash on hand which could last them for another year, even after factoring in the S$600 mil yard financing provided to Transocean.

They can call for a rights issue to boost working capital after they confirm/ secure the couple of mega projects that are coming in. That will minimise the impact on minority shareholders. As none of their projects are cancelled, it would have be much better for him to play the waiting game until the cashflow situation improves with mega projects completion in the coming months...

Instead, CEO Wong buckled under a bit of financial and operational duress. Succumb to the threats of a few bankers who say they may not rollover the maturing short term debt.

Totally hopeless in playing the game of chicken. Which banker would dare to anyhow foreclose a Temasek owned company?
 
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vivacious
Supreme
30-Aug-2021 20:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		will be good for everyone if the price stays above 0.09 
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naoshingo
Elite
30-Aug-2021 19:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lol..I see your point.
BTW, I still haven' t received the documents yet..has anyone received already??

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 18:15) Posted:

I am of the opinion that Sembmarine need not call for the 2nd rights issue so soon. They still have close to S$800 mil cash on hand which could last them for another year, even after factoring in the S$600 mil yard financing provided to Transocean.

They can call for a rights issue to boost working capital after they confirm/ secure the couple of mega projects that are coming in. That will minimise the impact on minority shareholders. As none of their projects are cancelled, it would have be much better for him to play the waiting game until the cashflow situation improves with mega projects completion in the coming months...

Instead, CEO Wong buckled under a bit of financial and operational duress. Succumb to the threats of a few bankers who say they may not rollover the maturing short term debt.

Totally hopeless in playing the game of chicken. Which banker would dare to anyhow foreclose a Temasek owned company?
 

naoshingo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:47) Posted:

Why did u call the CEO kan jeonh? Is he? 😷
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WiseInvestor
Elite
30-Aug-2021 18:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am not sure of your last question. Anyway, yes for example, shortist having 100 short position (shares) is to be allocated 150 shorted rights by today, Then have the following options as mentioned earlier, depending on the market performance. 

1) Buy the 150 rights back on the market at possibly higher than 8 cents by the expiry date of rights trading.
2) Leave the new positions to expire, in which case, the rights will automatically be taken up, the new 150 shares will be shorted at the subscription price (8 cents).

Shortists can do math as a basis of short-covering decision, using formula. For example, (100 x [let' s say]16 cents) + (150 x 8 cents)/250 = 11.2 cents to break even. if less than 11.2 cents, the shortist make profit. If Shortist buy 150 rights back at 9 cents tomorrow, then the effective one is 11.8 cents. 

It is likely that shortists might have an early inside information about the coming rights issue plan together with SMM' s fundamentals weakened by Covid-19 pandemic so they want to short more. That is similar to SIA' s previous right issue experience, but SIA' s huge losses were already strongly defied by Mr Market!

Abe2021      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:00) Posted:

Wiseinvestor, you are saying short position is eg 100 shares
They have to cover 150 rights plus the 100 shares. essentially 2.5 times 
Why would they want to short ?
Is there no other way to cover back.
They are also holding quite a substantial amount of shares. Anyway at this kind of price now, how many will want to subscribe ???

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 10:58) Posted:

Don' t try to sell your rights entitlement or shares for the sake of buying excess rights issue at 8 cents. Excess rights is rights who are not taken up by other shareholders or are sold on the market. The reason is that hedge funds (shortists) have a professional strategy of making huge profit, i.e by buying the rights back at lower price on the market, leaving not much excess rights for other shareholders (who sell rights on the market from tomorrow) to obtain.

If the hedge funds buying the below said 373M rights back at lower price, then they still have 248M short position (shares) on 22 Sept 2021 when the new right shares will begin trading. 

Foolish traders who bought at price ranging from about 14.7 cents at the highest to 10.3 at lowest during the announced rights issue plan period, because their money will be lost if they currently dump more shares, and even sell rights for just loss.  Do your own math to make proper decision
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vivacious
Supreme
30-Aug-2021 18:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		not sure how many shareholders hv thrown in the towel all these years (i did throw in the towel some years back) but now got in recently about 0.092.

Am fairly confident it' s a safe entry point.

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 18:15) Posted:

I am of the opinion that Sembmarine need not call for the 2nd rights issue so soon. They still have close to S$800 mil cash on hand which could last them for another year, even after factoring in the S$600 mil yard financing provided to Transocean.

They can call for a rights issue to boost working capital after they confirm/ secure the couple of mega projects that are coming in. That will minimise the impact on minority shareholders. As none of their projects are cancelled, it would have be much better for him to play the waiting game until the cashflow situation improves with mega projects completion in the coming months...

Instead, CEO Wong buckled under a bit of financial and operational duress. Succumb to the threats of a few bankers who say they may not rollover the maturing short term debt.

Totally hopeless in playing the game of chicken. Which banker would dare to anyhow foreclose a Temasek owned company?
 

naoshingo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:47) Posted:

Why did u call the CEO kan jeonh? Is he? 😷
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better
Elite
30-Aug-2021 18:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am of the opinion that Sembmarine need not call for the 2nd rights issue so soon. They still have close to S$800 mil cash on hand which could last them for another year, even after factoring in the S$600 mil yard financing provided to Transocean.

They can call for a rights issue to boost working capital after they confirm/ secure the couple of mega projects that are coming in. That will minimise the impact on minority shareholders. As none of their projects are cancelled, it would have be much better for him to play the waiting game until the cashflow situation improves with mega projects completion in the coming months...

Instead, CEO Wong buckled under a bit of financial and operational duress. Succumb to the threats of a few bankers who say they may not rollover the maturing short term debt.

Totally hopeless in playing the game of chicken. Which banker would dare to anyhow foreclose a Temasek owned company?
 

naoshingo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 17:47) Posted:

Why did u call the CEO kan jeonh? Is he? 😷

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 16:28) Posted:

That' s accurate.

My average buy price used to be much lower than Temaseks.

With the 2nd rights issue, it is going to be about on par. What I did not factor in was the kan jong spider CEO....
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naoshingo
Elite
30-Aug-2021 17:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Why did u call the CEO kan jeonh? Is he? 😷

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 16:28) Posted:

That' s accurate.

My average buy price used to be much lower than Temaseks.

With the 2nd rights issue, it is going to be about on par. What I did not factor in was the kan jong spider CEO.....

pkli899      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 16:09) Posted:

He was buying non stop (almost daily).....trying to accumulate to be a SSH.
Price plunged When 2nd rights issue was announced.
Resulted in heavy losses for him.
 
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Abe2021
Veteran
30-Aug-2021 17:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wiseinvestor, you are saying short position is eg 100 shares
They have to cover 150 rights plus the 100 shares. essentially 2.5 times 
Why would they want to short ?
Is there no other way to cover back.
They are also holding quite a substantial amount of shares. Anyway at this kind of price now, how many will want to subscribe ???

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 10:58) Posted:

Don' t try to sell your rights entitlement or shares for the sake of buying excess rights issue at 8 cents. Excess rights is rights who are not taken up by other shareholders or are sold on the market. The reason is that hedge funds (shortists) have a professional strategy of making huge profit, i.e by buying the rights back at lower price on the market, leaving not much excess rights for other shareholders (who sell rights on the market from tomorrow) to obtain.

If the hedge funds buying the below said 373M rights back at lower price, then they still have 248M short position (shares) on 22 Sept 2021 when the new right shares will begin trading. 

Foolish traders who bought at price ranging from about 14.7 cents at the highest to 10.3 at lowest during the announced rights issue plan period, because their money will be lost if they currently dump more shares, and even sell rights for just loss.  Do your own math to make proper decision.

WiseInvestor      ( Date: 26-Aug-2021 20:36) Posted:

As of opening 23 August 2021
 
S51 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD 248,742,076  Short Position (Shares)
 

If your original position was short, you can either buy the rights back, or leave the new position to expire. If you leave the position, though, you' ll be at risk of being ' taken up against' - meaning the rights will automatically be taken up, and you will short the shares at the subscription price. In case of letting the rights for short position expire by 14 Sep 2021, this short position will be increased to      621,855,190. 

Don' t sell your shares for the sake of buying excess rights to let the shortists win big. As well, don' t contra-trade. Do keep shares for a long term as global green/renewable energy sector' s market with 10 years of high CAGR will likely be worth mega-trillion dollars from 2021 to 2030. Shortists have taken advantage since many investors sold shares on the path sloping downward from about 19 cents to 10.3 cents during the announced rights issue plan period. As you know, Temasek' s MO will be 8 cents even if shares continue being shorted to less than 8 cents. 

SMM is well-posied to benefit much from the coming US' s 1 trillion US dollars infrastructure plan in area of green and renewable energy areas. Singapore will be a natural partner for the US including this area based on recent US VP' s visit to Singapore!


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eugesun
Elite
30-Aug-2021 16:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro, you will be rich,,, it will go up soon...TH has tons of money to make it grow....

better      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 16:28) Posted:

That' s accurate.

My average buy price used to be much lower than Temaseks.

With the 2nd rights issue, it is going to be about on par. What I did not factor in was the kan jong spider CEO.....

pkli899      ( Date: 30-Aug-2021 16:09) Posted:

He was buying non stop (almost daily).....trying to accumulate to be a SSH.
Price plunged When 2nd rights issue was announced.
Resulted in heavy losses for him.
 
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