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alliance mineral resources move up

pool100
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21-Apr-2017 12:59

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Guys, any idea which brokerage doesn' t have any trading curbs on AM?

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c3_jail
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21-Apr-2017 12:45

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If counter being halted , are the broker can do force selling?

tankookoo ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:26) Posted:

should congrat those T+3 because price will be higher if unhalt. Broking firm will force sell when market open and price will be better than closing.

SGPatience ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:17) Posted:

i also curious abt T+3...those caught very sian. Imagine if still hoping to sell today -_-

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 12:38

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Thanks Bro...do not fear...fully in your court..

risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:30) Posted:

anyway i am just show the base case Net profit... it could have more upside... Remember TAW has another land next to bald hill and that could in play with alliance too... Which alliance could own 50% of that land with some deals.... then they could sell more lithiums

The base case of 50m net profit brings Alliances forwarding looking of 3X P/E ........ So at 63 cents it is still below 6x P/E... base case ...

I believe we will see a surge to 50+c region

RedEye1811 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:23) Posted:

In addition, the Canaccord report estimates about 269,000 pounds of tantalum will be extracted with estimated sale price of US$60 per pound...that about another US$15 million to the top line which is roughly AUD19.5 mill or SG$21 mill...naturally some of this be offset against some G& A costs somewhere along the line but it will also add to the bottomline...or am I missing something?

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 12:30

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RedEye1811 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:23) Posted:

risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:12) Posted:

Taken from Cannacord report:

TAW and AMAL have significantly advanced feasibility work for the development of a 120-160ktpa spodumene concentrate operation, and significant tantalum by products of up to 300,000lbs/annum. The study is being conducted by lithium plant engineering group Primero Group, who were the project manager for the final stages of construction, commissioning and ramp up for the +160ktpa Mt Cattlin operation.

Average mining costs of A$2.50/t, total processing and site G& A costs of A$25/t, product transport and handling costs of A$40/t concentrate, WA State royalties of 5%. Estimated total production costs of A$484/t concentrate over the LOM (including tantalum by product credits).

159

----------------------------------- My Calculation ---------------------------

From BCL 將以固定價格購買合計不少於 200,000乾噸，價值約二億美元的高等級鋰輝石精礦 . Which means they will buy at least 200Kton within the first 2 years for a fixed price of USD 1000 per ton.

So Case 1 assume 120Kt:

120,000 Ton x ( Selling price AUD 1328/Ton - Mining cost Aud 484) = Net PRofit AUD 101.28 million

50% AMAL/TAW = estimated 50M

So case 2 assume 160Kt

160,000 Ton x ( Selling price AUD 1328/Ton - Mining cost Aud 484) =Net Profit AUD 135.04 million

50% AMAL/TAW = estimated 67M

This is all the facts from presentation so do your maths now whats the valuation of the company

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 12:23

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risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:12) Posted:

soundblaster ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:51) Posted:

Revenue and profit not the same.

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 12:12

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soundblaster ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:51) Posted:

Revenue and profit not the same.

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 12:03

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The underlying definitions are different...but revenue and profit can technically be same thing...if have only revenue and no costs then revenue = profit....but then again depends on what profit talking about...gross profit, net profit...but revenue and profit can technically (though in practice very unlikely to occur) be the same...

soundblaster ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:51) Posted:

Revenue and profit not the same.

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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 12:00

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Thanks captain obvious, we have already taken into account all-in production costs to arrive at net profit.

soundblaster ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:51) Posted:

Revenue and profit not the same.

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soundblaster
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21-Apr-2017 11:51

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Revenue and profit not the same.

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:49

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But i think wait for actual annc from them cos they are going 120k to 160k per year... could really be 200kt per year... as they could step up...

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:44

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Now go sgx check which coy make 40m profit and whats their price and market cap

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:42

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But as stated the min for the first 2 years they gonna purchase is 200kt... so i expect higher... so at least we know 40m profit is min...

risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:41) Posted:

So min got 40m ah lol pai seh read wrongly

timothylim890 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:33) Posted:

Bro do you need to divide AUD80m by 2 again to get 40m? AUD80m is for 2017 AND 2018.

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:41

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So min got 40m ah lol pai seh read wrongly

timothylim890 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:33) Posted:

Bro do you need to divide AUD80m by 2 again to get 40m? AUD80m is for 2017 AND 2018.

risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:20) Posted:

simple USD 1000 convert into AUD = 1328 lets say AUD 1300

All in cost Cannacord state AUD $484 let say AUD $500

So net profit = AUD $800/ ton

200k ton x $800 = AUD 160million

50% share from TAW/AMAL = AUD $80Million

So we roughly can say that 1 year they can make $AUD 80 million

Whos selling at 40c is stupid

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soundblaster
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21-Apr-2017 11:36

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Divide by 2 again for management to earn good salary?

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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 11:33

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Bro do you need to divide AUD80m by 2 again to get 40m? AUD80m is for 2017 AND 2018.

risktaker ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:20) Posted:

timothylim890 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:15) Posted:

I' d like to point out that in regard to Canaccord Genuity' s analyst report on AMAL/TAW, the offtake price per tonne secured with BCL is above the ' high case' price of US950/tonne indicated in their NPV10% table. Now we need to see the resource estimate to determine the mine life and thus which part of the ' high case' column we' d be sitting in.

By the way, if anyone has used Canaccord' s AUD484/tonne production cost in their fair value estimates, do note that tantalite by-product credits are already included, so lithium concentrate price of US1000/tonne - AUD484/tonne should give us AMAL/TAW' s net profit.

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tankookoo
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21-Apr-2017 11:26

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should congrat those T+3 because price will be higher if unhalt. Broking firm will force sell when market open and price will be better than closing.

SGPatience ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:17) Posted:

i also curious abt T+3...those caught very sian. Imagine if still hoping to sell today -_-

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:20

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timothylim890 ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 11:15) Posted:

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SGPatience
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21-Apr-2017 11:17

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i also curious abt T+3...those caught very sian. Imagine if still hoping to sell today -_-

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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 11:15

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risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 11:12

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i am guessing monday

tankookoo ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 10:41) Posted:

It can be halted until until Tuesday..On wednesday, it can request for also ask for extension of halt , subject to SGX approval,. dun need halt and unhalt and halt...

(1) The Exchange may at any time grant a trading halt to enable the issuer to disclose material information or suspend trading of the listed securities of an issuer at the request of the issuer. The Exchange is not required to act on the request.

(2) The trading halt cannot exceed 3 market days or such short extension as the Exchange agrees.

amlithiumpower ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 09:30) Posted:

Wonder they can do triple halt to trap all the shortists, lift halt on Monday then tues halt, release feasibility studies and lift halt on thurs and trap shortists on Friday but halting again on 2 May (1 May public holiday) with resources report since all 3 announcements targeting end April.

Hohoho...

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