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NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
04-Nov-2014 18:13
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I' m still awaiting SGX reply to my weekend email to them if NOL failed to disclose the sending of the sale document for APL Logistic if it constituted material development, assuming Blomberg report was accurate. Besides, given that NOL reported that the congestion at Southern California resulted in signifiacntly higher operating expenses for Q3 to the tune of US$30m, shouldn' t it be reflected in statement 13 of the financial report which will highlight trend and development that will have signficant impact to next 12 mths operation. This is especially so that congestion could have been evident at the start if summer which is around end May. If the congestion is not going to ease off, it should be forecasted and not left as surprise for Q4. The sale of APL Logistic is a very very signficant development given that UOBKH stated its book value is only US$124m and hence a sale of above US1B will mean NOL will be able to book in potentially huge profit of near US$1B ! This is besides the positive financial impact to its debt ratio, interest expense and finance cost due to exhange rate of escalating US$ when making repayment. It incurred US$40m finance cost for Q3 ! So, while lower bunker cost as a result of lower crude prices and cost savings derived from efficiency of larger ships are important for NOL to return to profitability, the sale of APL Logistic will have immediate short term positive impact that outweight profitability concern. That' s why we must put pressure on NOL to make timely disclosure. It is absurd that we have to hear from newswires such as Reuters and Bloomberg which also means that the BIG BOYS would have taken advantage of early intelligence. UOBKH latest report suggested TP of $1.01 and recommended a BUY even before factoring in the potentially significant positive impact of the sale of APL Logistic while OCBC upgraded to HOLD when NOL was trading at $0.86. Yet to see recommendations from the other analysts. |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
04-Nov-2014 17:31
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But supply of vessels continue to outpace demand (see extract below from Cosco' s result announcement yesterday), any profitability will still be capped, cheap oil price notwithstanding. In dry bulk shipping, the Group expects the positive impact from any rebound in BDI to be subdued as expansion in the global bulk carrier fleet continues to outpace demand.
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ruanlai
Elite |
04-Nov-2014 16:44
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Shortists got burnt liao. Oil below US75 will benefit NOL to move up. |
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ruanlai
Elite |
04-Nov-2014 16:34
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Oil below US77 a barrel |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
04-Nov-2014 16:27
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I will be more supportive on Samudera Shipping which is also container shipping company but manage to cut cost and remove the non-profitable shipping route and turn profitable 2 continual quarters. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
04-Nov-2014 16:25
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About time to change my view on this stock. Oil price has dropped to 78 dollars and seem like oil price is going to stay or below this level for minimum 6months time till next year summer. If the oil price dropping doesn' t create an oil crisis at begin of next year to affect the shipping volume, highly likely NOL will turn profitable in next quarter and has sustantial good profit in 1st quarter next year. KIV on this stock and put into watchlist. Selling the APL logistic may give NOL a lift back to 1 dollar. Based on present oil price level and freight rate, all players in the market surely can be profitable.
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danger
Supreme |
04-Nov-2014 14:07
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standby to load back at 80.5c Made a couple profitable trades on NOL just by buying/selling at spot on price ... THose who held from around $1.20 until now...super big loss and no profit |
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Nov-2014 22:31
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SPOT rates for shipping containers from Asia to northern Europe jumped 88.2 per cent to US$1,312 per TEU in the week ended on Friday, according to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), Reuters reports.
Sunday, 02.Nov.2014, 22:31 (GMT) Asia-Europe rates up 88pc to US$1,312/TEU, but tranpac falls 5.7pc SPOT rates for shipping containers from Asia to northern Europe jumped 88.2 per cent to US$1,312 per TEU in the week ended on Friday, according to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), Reuters reports. The increase reversed the weekly declines that have lasted the past 12 weeks and saw rates drop to a yearly low of $697 per TEU, well below the widely accepted $1,000 per TEU break even point. Maersk Line, the global market leader with nearly 600 container vessels and part of Danish oil and shipping group AP Moller-Maersk, has already announced a $900 rate hike effective November 1. In the week to Friday, rates increased 51.3 per cent from Asia to ports in the Mediterranean, but fell 5.7 per cent to ports on the US west coast and were down by 1.7 per cent to ports on the US east coast. |
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famouspinky
Supreme |
03-Nov-2014 16:46
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Technically is not an uptrend now
News has to be timely
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danger
Supreme |
03-Nov-2014 14:16
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Lucky03 you think too much , too much loss until cannot think straight ?
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Nov-2014 14:11
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I'm letting my imagination runs wild. No idea who are the prospective buyers NOL send the sale document to since they are so secretive. If the list includes Hapag, they may even take this opportunity to offer to buy out the whole NOL group !? | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Nov-2014 10:16
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Maybe looking beyond QoQ P&L and looking forward to sale of assets and privatization. It is certainly smelling strongly now.
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Belteshazzar
Master |
03-Nov-2014 10:09
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why didnt hit all time low today? still losing $ last q |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
03-Nov-2014 10:00
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and integrate into PSA
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danger
Supreme |
03-Nov-2014 09:57
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that' s why i said NOL is finished last friday Worth another small purchase when at 80.5c again |
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hem2998
Veteran |
03-Nov-2014 09:56
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My guess is privatisation after the sale.
market will.not be kind if NOL remains listed. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Nov-2014 09:56
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Extract of UOBKH report just released.
The potential sale of logistics business will enhance short-term earnings contribution but hurt profitability in the long term. NOL announced its intention to sell its logistics business, and a Korea-listed company, CJ Korean Express, has shown interest in buying it. The book value of its logistics business was US$124m as at end-13. By assuming it is sold at 10x core EBIT and that its core EBIT in 2014 is US$72m (+4% yoy), the consideration will be US$720m. The large disposal gain will ensure NOL turn in a profit in the year that the transaction is finished. However, as the logistics business is NOL?s only profitable business in recent years, selling this business will hurt its profitability in the long term. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK Revise down our earnings forecasts to reflect the weaker container shipping business. We cut our earnings forecast for 2014 from a US$24m loss to a US$122m loss to reflect the severe congestion problem in the US, the lower freight rate as well as the lower cargo volume. We have not factored in the disposal of the logistics business as large uncertainties remain on when and how the deal will be transacted as well as on how much NOL will receive. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION Cut target price to S$1.01 maintain BUY. After reducing our earnings forecasts and valuation multiple from 1.1x to 1.0x P/B (considering the weak industry condition), we cut our target price to S$1.01. Maintain BUY as we think the current 0.8x 2015F P/B has reflected NOL?s intention to sell the logistic business, but the earnings forecast has not reflected the possible huge gain from the sale of the business. SHARE PRICE CATALYST Freight rate increase and a recovery in the global economy. |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
03-Nov-2014 09:54
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why sell something that is profitable? doesnt it make the whole worst in term of profit more losses |
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josephsim
Member |
03-Nov-2014 09:04
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After Friday lastest financial result, it seems that NOL will go ahead to sell APL. That the only choice what the CEO will able to do now. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Nov-2014 23:23
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If NOL is able to conclude a fire sale of APL Logistic before end Dec after the closure of the first round bids end Nov, they may just be able to avoid a 4th yr of loss as the profit that they may be able to book in may be sufficient to offset the total loss for the year. Given that the first indication that NOL is able to obtain at least US$750m for APL Logistic when it was revealed by Reuters report on 20 Aug and subsequently estimated no less than US1b when CJ Korea Express filed their interest to acquire APL Logistic that the profit on the sale of APL Logistic should exceed US$300m if not more.
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