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SIA
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Octavia
Supreme |
17-Sep-2013 09:49
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CIMB maintains Neutral with $10.50 TP. House notes that SIA?s mainline load factors were helped by strong leisure travel and a shift in the Hari Raya period. On the other hand, SilkAir?s constant capacity addition is forcing loads lower, while cargo traffic also continues to see little improvement. SIA notes that passenger yields are likely to remain under pressure due to promotional efforts to boost loads. Apart from discounting, house believe that the persistent strength of the S$ against other operating currencies is also contributing to weak pricing and believe cargo weakness will continue to be a drag on SIA. | ||||
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Octavia
Supreme |
13-Sep-2013 13:47
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DBS upgrade to Buy from Hold with $11.40 TP. HOuse note that although outlook is muted, valuation is now attractive at -1.3SD at 0.88x P/BV. Note that there are several possibilities to unlock its net cash of over S$4.9bn, representing > 40% of market cap Potential to return excess net cash to shareholders, which has reach $4.20 per share. Add that SIA?s share price has recently broken below -1SD (0.92x P/BV) in August to its current level of 0.87x P/BV, or -1.3SD. This is a level seen previously only in crises such as 9/11, SARS, and the GFC. Also, at this current price, the rest of SIA is valued at less than $3 per share if we were to strip to out its net cash and stake in SIA Engineering. | ||||
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AAwang
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31-Aug-2013 21:54
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this one is sinking ship. there are other boats that we can jump to | ||||
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dippyboy
Member |
31-Aug-2013 19:42
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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Jet fuel is already at 125 and might even shoot up 50% more in a full scale middle east war. That will wipe out 50m of thin profits and add another few hundred m of losses considering the corresponding revenue drop and cost increases. On hindsight, the decision not to confront LCC 5+ years ago is a strategic error during the leadership transition.It allows airasia to grow its roots and explode from the large domestic demand in malaysia .The worst is yet to come, airasia will soon realise its full potential and become a force to be reckon with once they get their hands around loss making MAS which will then allow them to challenge Singapore hub status which the middle eastern airlines with oil subsidies advantage is already chewing at hard. Now with Sia and airasia both booking so many planes before 2018 , it will also possibly lead to a oversupply situation of planes and a price war much like current shipping industry is suffering at . This will be a tough dog fight and the only sure victors in such situation seems to be passengers and not shareholders . Just like in Usa , history is repeating in asia. |
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ascend88
Master |
31-Aug-2013 11:26
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Almost at lehamn time low ... cannot be right | ||||
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lovehandle
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20-Aug-2013 23:12
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my capital is melting, see the new low to day |
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Rosesyrup
Master |
31-Jul-2013 23:45
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Cornered With Its Wings Clipped Pros SIA announced that out of 8 of its new jets, 3 of them will have larger personal space. This is deemed to be a right strategy, as it turn wasted space (low load) into customer value (bigger space). It is expected to enhance the competitiveness of SIA against its rival. Cons -However, SIA is too conservative for its own good. Testing out the new strategy on a small scale (3 jets), though limit the cost of failure, gives competitors ample time to study the effect of the new strategy and to mimic if it turns out to be successful. As a result, SIA not only failed to achieve sustained strategic competitiveness, it will also becomes a free laboratory for its competitors. Thus, we can expect the latest strategy, which is supposedly a good one, to be a fail attempt for SIA to regain competitiveness in the industry. - Although some analysts claimed that load and revenue would improve as economy recovers, the accompanying hike in oil price would jeopardise the company recovery. - The fundamental of SIA business continues to get eroded by competitors who are offering services that are pretty close to SIA yet charges much lower fare e.g. Thai Airway. SIA's new strategy that focus on improving in-flight entertainment shows that its management is running out of ideas to improve the business. Reason being physical attributes of a " product" can be easily copied and provide little sustainted competitive advantage, thus it is normally the last thing that management wants to depend on for differentiation. The fact that SIA has been focusing on the physical atttribute prove how desperate it is. -As time and option is running out for SIA management, I expect that the only viable strategy left for the company to survive would be to retreat to top end market where its higher fare can be justified. However to achieve that, SIA would have to shed off it current scale of operation, causing its revenue to fall- though proftiablility might improve should SIA survived the transformation. Given such bleak prospect, I have SIA a TP of $9.60, this price has already taken into consideration of the strong brand name that the company possessed. Just sharing my view here, email me [email protected] if you have something to share with me. Thanks.
Author: Rosesyrup
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Octavia
Supreme |
30-Jul-2013 09:44
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SIA conducted an informal analyst briefing following the recent release of its 1QFY14 numbers. Conversation centred on three areas: SQ's yield composition, the outlook for the freight business and specific market performance, in particular, Australia. While SIA tends to be economical with guidance, it would appear that the greatest contributions to passenger yield (and its 1QFY14 decline was currency—especially JPY and AUD, with the mix actually quite stable. While discounting to fill additional seats to Australia remains a reality, CS see the impact of better business class load and a less aggressive YoY currency track taking some pressure off yields in future periods. CS retain its OUTPERFORM rating and $12.50 TP. House view is that airlines continue their gradual firming in both earnings and stock price, absent any sharp movement in jet fuel and/or currency. | ||||
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john_ric
Supreme |
29-May-2013 12:16
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.. yes. not recommending to buy. but may just hold for those who are vested in sia..............................already
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Octavia
Supreme |
29-May-2013 11:25
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Woah!! Saw this on instagram
Supposedly happened somewhere here 
Check out the photos. Pretty siong man 
LOOK AT THE FOOD!! 
According to news reports got 11 passengers and 1 crew with minor injuries. I am surprised. Looks pretty bad leh. According to the guy who posted alan_crossx, he said they all go chocolates |
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Octavia
Supreme |
29-May-2013 11:19
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17c dividend might as well buy SPH which is paying slightly more than this amt and your capital outay is abt 58% lower.
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Octavia
Supreme |
29-May-2013 11:13
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Hehe.If you said like that then you must be good looking bah. Ya support local airline. My company's policy on airline choice for our overseas business trip is SIA.Not bad considering my company is an American MNC.
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gavinl
Supreme |
29-May-2013 10:58
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I hope so john. I still got some shares in it. | ||||
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john_ric
Supreme |
29-May-2013 10:47
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..Another not so pessimistic report. Core earnings for Singapore Airlines were below expectations due to an operating loss of S$44m in 4Q. Net profit of S$379m was 13% higher than last year. Passenger yields are likely to remain fairly tepid with a bias towards modest improvements. However, jet fuel has been trending lower and should help a modest recovery for earnings. A S17cts final dividend was declared maintain HOLD, TP S$11.50 (Prev S$ 11.20). |
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john_ric
Supreme |
29-May-2013 10:45
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....Share with you this report (not all that negative. SIA cheer up): Singapore Airlines- 4QFY13: Market has not factored in key positives. (SIA SP/BUY/S$10.93/Target: S$13.30) FY14F PE(x): 22.1 FY15F PE(x): 14.2 The 4.3% yield decline was mainly due to forex impact. Some 79% of the 4.3% decline in the yields was due to lower S$-yields, ie SIA was impacted by the yen and the euro which had declined 7% during the period. About 10-12% of the parent airline's revenue came from Japan and 22% from Europe. This suggests that competitive pressures were less of an issue. Despite the adverse forex moves in 1Q13, pax yields actually improved mom in March. If the forex impact was excluded, yields would have improved qoq. No reason to be pessimistic on results. We are surprised by the market’s reaction to the results. The decline in yields was mainly due to unprecedented currency volatility, especially in the yen. The market should be focusing on the impact of inbound travels to Japan and that SIA would now have hedged its yen exposure at better rates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of S$13.30 (from S$13.50), mainly factoring in a 7.3% change in SIAEC’s target price. At current level, SIA is being valued at 70% ex-SIAEC after adjusting for a 10% discount to fair value. We continue to value SIA on an SOTP basis and value the airline business at 0.9x FY14F book value. | ||||
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gavinl
Supreme |
28-May-2013 23:44
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Btw, i wish i m wrong about the below $10 thingy. As singaporean, i ll be very sad to see a great airline fall. Like it or not, sq still a better choice to take. Other airlines treat singaporean like shit whereas sq still can tolerate us ( at least me lah, not so good looking singaporean) . Lol
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Octavia
Supreme |
28-May-2013 23:34
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True.Their ranking and market shares have been badly eroded over the years by middle east airlines.Over the past few quarters can see them selling spare parts to register a gain in their finanical result.
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gavinl
Supreme |
28-May-2013 23:24
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Yup, face value is 1 thing but reality is real. Last time sia fly high is bcos of no budget airline but now? From number 1 to now number what? I used to be a great sia fan and had owned xx lots before but now only left with 5 lots. Those 5 lots are considered free after all the dividends and sats shares given by them. If i m not wrong, no more assets for them to sell anymore.
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Octavia
Supreme |
28-May-2013 23:14
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They have to give face to national carrier mah.Good thing is that the company is cash rich,
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gavinl
Supreme |
28-May-2013 23:10
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$10??? Lol, i m looking below that.
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