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Latest Forum Topics / Alita Resources    Last:0.078 --  Post Reply
alliance mineral resources move up
risktaker
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21-Apr-2017 14:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Its a private placement.....i think

RedEye1811      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:32) Posted:



Perhaps I am giving AMAL/TAW more credit than worth it...but as they are not rushing out to make off-take announcement even though Burwill seems to have let information out then I am thinking AMAL/TAW may be trying to get the FS finalized along with other key pieces of information so they can make announcements all at once...if make off-take announcement now then FS later then this could cause people to jump on number just like before when TAW did that clarification...so to avoid confusion perhaps they being conservative and want to let it all out at once so all information can be digested without people making assumptions (or relying on estimates)...perhaps that an indication they learnt from before and trying do right thing by investors...just a thought..surprise

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:22) Posted:



Totally agree with you. When I bought AMAL I had already been prepared to hold until 1Q2018 when the first shipment goes out. By that point, quite confident $1 won' t be a problem. But from now until then, expect the price to climb and plateau at each major milestone along the way. Still a number of key risks accompanying each milestone, but it looks like TAW/AMAL management know what they are doing and so far they have been transparent and lived up to their words. No need to be greedy, we will be rewarded in due time!


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pool100
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21-Apr-2017 14:43     
 
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Thanks Jack

jack2906      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 13:07) Posted:



dbs vickers, Lim & Tan...

pool100      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:59) Posted:



Guys, any idea which brokerage doesn' t have any trading curbs on AM?


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Speedy
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21-Apr-2017 14:39     
 
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I see,   Thanks.

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:35) Posted:



Think they are waiting for information on other key items. Canaccord Genuity' s analyst report did not have a TP either, a lot of their information was based on estimates, forecasts, and benchmarks.

Speedy      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:29) Posted:



No TP yet from analysts yet after the annoucement has been made? - 


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EmmGru
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21-Apr-2017 14:38     
 
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Actually their NPV calc already incorporates a valuation i.e. an inherent TP. Just not stated as such and the PE ratio is left open to interpretation. Also too initial stage so as u say, full of assumptions.

I am anticipating them to update their report and issue asap. They were the first to initiate coverage and given their close relationship with the Co, will want to maintain their go-to leadership position in terms of analysis.

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:35) Posted:



Think they are waiting for information on other key items. Canaccord Genuity' s analyst report did not have a TP either, a lot of their information was based on estimates, forecasts, and benchmarks.

Speedy      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:29) Posted:



No TP yet from analysts yet after the annoucement has been made? - 


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EmmGru
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21-Apr-2017 14:35     
 
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hahaha gd strategy...

Any px hit up to 0.425 is not actually an increase, it is just recovering lost ground for the poor longist who loaded at that price and should be considered cheap becos haven' t incorporate latest development.

The latest development + all other news that may be announced i.e feasibility study etc will support upwards to 50...60...$1. 

RedEye1811      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:25) Posted:



Prefer BT does not report on it till after TH lifted....give little time for those been watching the counter intently to load up cheap...then BT can report and give it publicity so then the opportunities who were not aware of the counter can come in fearing they missed the boat so share price skips up..allow us first grab of pie....wink

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:19) Posted:



If The Edge has picked this up, don' t think it' ll be long before BT follows suit.


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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 14:35     
 
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Think they are waiting for information on other key items. Canaccord Genuity' s analyst report did not have a TP either, a lot of their information was based on estimates, forecasts, and benchmarks.

Speedy      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:29) Posted:



No TP yet from analysts yet after the annoucement has been made? - 

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 14:34     
 
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There are a number of critical unknowns yet to be disclosed - estimate amount of reserves, how long mine can last etc etc - so analysts would be wise to hold fire till FS and other key data disclosed which hopefully be sooner than later...

Speedy      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:29) Posted:



No TP yet from analysts yet after the annoucement has been made? - 

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 14:32     
 
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Perhaps I am giving AMAL/TAW more credit than worth it...but as they are not rushing out to make off-take announcement even though Burwill seems to have let information out then I am thinking AMAL/TAW may be trying to get the FS finalized along with other key pieces of information so they can make announcements all at once...if make off-take announcement now then FS later then this could cause people to jump on number just like before when TAW did that clarification...so to avoid confusion perhaps they being conservative and want to let it all out at once so all information can be digested without people making assumptions (or relying on estimates)...perhaps that an indication they learnt from before and trying do right thing by investors...just a thought..surprise

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:22) Posted:



Totally agree with you. When I bought AMAL I had already been prepared to hold until 1Q2018 when the first shipment goes out. By that point, quite confident $1 won' t be a problem. But from now until then, expect the price to climb and plateau at each major milestone along the way. Still a number of key risks accompanying each milestone, but it looks like TAW/AMAL management know what they are doing and so far they have been transparent and lived up to their words. No need to be greedy, we will be rewarded in due time!

RedEye1811      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:19) Posted:



Though neither AMAL or TAW have made an announcement yet, it is reasonable to conclude the off-take announcement by Burwill is very much in the works. If not, then both AMAL and TAW would be putting its reputation in serious question if it they did not deny it given newspaper reports are floating about.

As for a valuation for AMAL I think it is reasonable to state that at this point it difficult to put forward a truly precise estimate. The Burwill announcement definitely adds a key piece to the puzzle but as timothylim890 Bro mentioned (and others) there are key unknowns still to be disclosed. For example what is the lifespan of the mine. If 13 years or more then likely put a great premium on price than if just 7 years. And whilst Burwill going to loan AUD25 mill we cannot be certain if that the total amount of capex required to get operations going, or if it more like AUD 45 million like the estimate from Canaccord. If only AUD$25 million then that a saving that help price a little. But if they have to get a bundle of funding from other sources then more parties involved can be more complicated.

And though the Burwill announcement is great news one caution worth considering is that we should not expect it to hit $1 the day after TH lifted. To be frank think IMHO need to be realistic that whilst in 12 months it could hit a high TP (say $1) it may require several step-ups before getting there. For example, price may plateau after initial rise until get confirmation that mine commissioned (or some other deadline outlined by AMAL/TAW) when it jump again and then jump again when first delivery. To get full value of AMAL' s potential need to be realistic that have to ride the horse for full journey to delivery so may need to be patient. Just a thought to keep in back of mind so as not to think tomorrow it hit $1 (though great if did). 


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Speedy
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21-Apr-2017 14:29     
 
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No TP yet from analysts yet after the annoucement has been made? - 
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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 14:25     
 
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Prefer BT does not report on it till after TH lifted....give little time for those been watching the counter intently to load up cheap...then BT can report and give it publicity so then the opportunities who were not aware of the counter can come in fearing they missed the boat so share price skips up..allow us first grab of pie....wink

timothylim890      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:19) Posted:



If The Edge has picked this up, don' t think it' ll be long before BT follows suit.

EmmGru      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:18) Posted:



Gem also need publicity before it will shine brighter :)

Hope business times will report this news.... and if the trading curb gets lifted.... wa price really fly and really huat


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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 14:22     
 
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Totally agree with you. When I bought AMAL I had already been prepared to hold until 1Q2018 when the first shipment goes out. By that point, quite confident $1 won' t be a problem. But from now until then, expect the price to climb and plateau at each major milestone along the way. Still a number of key risks accompanying each milestone, but it looks like TAW/AMAL management know what they are doing and so far they have been transparent and lived up to their words. No need to be greedy, we will be rewarded in due time!

RedEye1811      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:19) Posted:



Though neither AMAL or TAW have made an announcement yet, it is reasonable to conclude the off-take announcement by Burwill is very much in the works. If not, then both AMAL and TAW would be putting its reputation in serious question if it they did not deny it given newspaper reports are floating about.

As for a valuation for AMAL I think it is reasonable to state that at this point it difficult to put forward a truly precise estimate. The Burwill announcement definitely adds a key piece to the puzzle but as timothylim890 Bro mentioned (and others) there are key unknowns still to be disclosed. For example what is the lifespan of the mine. If 13 years or more then likely put a great premium on price than if just 7 years. And whilst Burwill going to loan AUD25 mill we cannot be certain if that the total amount of capex required to get operations going, or if it more like AUD 45 million like the estimate from Canaccord. If only AUD$25 million then that a saving that help price a little. But if they have to get a bundle of funding from other sources then more parties involved can be more complicated.

And though the Burwill announcement is great news one caution worth considering is that we should not expect it to hit $1 the day after TH lifted. To be frank think IMHO need to be realistic that whilst in 12 months it could hit a high TP (say $1) it may require several step-ups before getting there. For example, price may plateau after initial rise until get confirmation that mine commissioned (or some other deadline outlined by AMAL/TAW) when it jump again and then jump again when first delivery. To get full value of AMAL' s potential need to be realistic that have to ride the horse for full journey to delivery so may need to be patient. Just a thought to keep in back of mind so as not to think tomorrow it hit $1 (though great if did). 

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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 14:19     
 
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If The Edge has picked this up, don' t think it' ll be long before BT follows suit.

EmmGru      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 14:18) Posted:



Gem also need publicity before it will shine brighter :)

Hope business times will report this news.... and if the trading curb gets lifted.... wa price really fly and really huat

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RedEye1811
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21-Apr-2017 14:19     
 
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Though neither AMAL or TAW have made an announcement yet, it is reasonable to conclude the off-take announcement by Burwill is very much in the works. If not, then both AMAL and TAW would be putting its reputation in serious question if it they did not deny it given newspaper reports are floating about.

As for a valuation for AMAL I think it is reasonable to state that at this point it difficult to put forward a truly precise estimate. The Burwill announcement definitely adds a key piece to the puzzle but as timothylim890 Bro mentioned (and others) there are key unknowns still to be disclosed. For example what is the lifespan of the mine. If 13 years or more then likely put a great premium on price than if just 7 years. And whilst Burwill going to loan AUD25 mill we cannot be certain if that the total amount of capex required to get operations going, or if it more like AUD 45 million like the estimate from Canaccord. If only AUD$25 million then that a saving that help price a little. But if they have to get a bundle of funding from other sources then more parties involved can be more complicated.

And though the Burwill announcement is great news one caution worth considering is that we should not expect it to hit $1 the day after TH lifted. To be frank think IMHO need to be realistic that whilst in 12 months it could hit a high TP (say $1) it may require several step-ups before getting there. For example, price may plateau after initial rise until get confirmation that mine commissioned (or some other deadline outlined by AMAL/TAW) when it jump again and then jump again when first delivery. To get full value of AMAL' s potential need to be realistic that have to ride the horse for full journey to delivery so may need to be patient. Just a thought to keep in back of mind so as not to think tomorrow it hit $1 (though great if did). 
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EmmGru
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21-Apr-2017 14:18     
 
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Gem also need publicity before it will shine brighter :)

Hope business times will report this news.... and if the trading curb gets lifted.... wa price really fly and really huat
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timothylim890
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21-Apr-2017 13:57     
 
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Gentlemen, we are in business. Looking forward to more favorable announcements by TAW/AMAL and the FS.

ihuazai      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 13:55) Posted:



http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/burwill-pay-a25-mil-exclusive-selling-rights-alliance-mineral-assets%E2%80%99-bald-hill-lithium

 

Burwill to pay A$25 mil for exclusive selling rights to Alliance Mineral Assets&rsquo Bald Hill lithium

By: 
Jude Chan


21/04/17, 11:49 am


SINGAPORE (April 21): Hong Kong-listed Burwill Commodity announced in a regulatory filing on Thursday that it has entered into offtake agreements with Alliance Mineral Assets, Lithco No. 2, and Tawana Resources.

Burwill will advance by instalments A$25 million ($26.3 million) for exclusive selling rights to the lithium concentrate flowing from the Bald Hill Project in Western Australia for a five-year term, and pre-emptive rights for subsequent five years.

 

Burwill has made an initial advance payment of A$7.5 million upon signing of the agreement, and will make two further advance payments of A$8.75 million each in July and Sept 2017.

The advance payment is a non-interest bearing advance from Burwill to the sellers, which will be repaid in full within the first two years of the five year term, by way of set-off against the purchase price for each delivery of the lithium concentrate.

In the first two years starting Feb 2018, Burwill will purchase at least 200,000 dry metric tonnes of high-grade lithium concentrate at a fixed price, worth approximately US$200 million ($279.5 million).

Lithium concentrate is raw material for lithium carbonate processing. Lithium carbonate is widely used in mobile phones, digital products, military, as well as industrial and large capacity domestic energy storage systems.

Alliance Mineral Assets is the registered holder and beneficial owner of the Bald Hill Lithium Mine Project, and has formed a joint venture with Lithco.

(See:  Alliance Mineral Assets hits lithium jackpot)

Separately, the SGX-listed Alliance Mineral Assets requested for a trading halt after market close on Thursday &ldquo pending for release of an announcement&rdquo .

Shares of Alliance Mineral Assets last closed at 31.5 cents.

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ihuazai
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21-Apr-2017 13:55     
 
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http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/burwill-pay-a25-mil-exclusive-selling-rights-alliance-mineral-assets%E2%80%99-bald-hill-lithium

 

Burwill to pay A$25 mil for exclusive selling rights to Alliance Mineral Assets&rsquo Bald Hill lithium

By: 
Jude Chan


21/04/17, 11:49 am


SINGAPORE (April 21): Hong Kong-listed Burwill Commodity announced in a regulatory filing on Thursday that it has entered into offtake agreements with Alliance Mineral Assets, Lithco No. 2, and Tawana Resources.

Burwill will advance by instalments A$25 million ($26.3 million) for exclusive selling rights to the lithium concentrate flowing from the Bald Hill Project in Western Australia for a five-year term, and pre-emptive rights for subsequent five years.

 

Burwill has made an initial advance payment of A$7.5 million upon signing of the agreement, and will make two further advance payments of A$8.75 million each in July and Sept 2017.

The advance payment is a non-interest bearing advance from Burwill to the sellers, which will be repaid in full within the first two years of the five year term, by way of set-off against the purchase price for each delivery of the lithium concentrate.

In the first two years starting Feb 2018, Burwill will purchase at least 200,000 dry metric tonnes of high-grade lithium concentrate at a fixed price, worth approximately US$200 million ($279.5 million).

Lithium concentrate is raw material for lithium carbonate processing. Lithium carbonate is widely used in mobile phones, digital products, military, as well as industrial and large capacity domestic energy storage systems.

Alliance Mineral Assets is the registered holder and beneficial owner of the Bald Hill Lithium Mine Project, and has formed a joint venture with Lithco.

(See:  Alliance Mineral Assets hits lithium jackpot)

Separately, the SGX-listed Alliance Mineral Assets requested for a trading halt after market close on Thursday &ldquo pending for release of an announcement&rdquo .

Shares of Alliance Mineral Assets last closed at 31.5 cents.
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furnaces
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21-Apr-2017 13:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The edge cover the burwill announcement.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/burwill-pay-a25-mil-exclusive-selling-rights-alliance-mineral-assets%E2%80%99-bald-hill-lithium

If over the weekend sure spread until everyone knows about it.
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EmmGru
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21-Apr-2017 13:14     
 
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OCBC

jack2906      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 13:07) Posted:



dbs vickers, Lim & Tan...

pool100      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:59) Posted:



Guys, any idea which brokerage doesn' t have any trading curbs on AM?


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EmmGru
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21-Apr-2017 13:13     
 
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Repost again. The US$1000/t price exceeds the high case used by  Canaccord. Wait for their updated report lah

EmmGru      ( Date: 13-Apr-2017 15:01) Posted:



Repost for convenience.

Risktaker posted for Tawana (price in A$). Below is for Alliance (in S$). The 40-50 cents is around the median estimate. But take with big pinch of salt, feasiblity study not out yet.

EmmGru      ( Date: 13-Apr-2017 11:54) Posted:



NPV 10%

Base Case

CG Forecast

&rsquo 17 benchmark&rsquo

US$850/t

High Case

US$950/t


Mine life &ndash 13 years

0.40

0.51

0.61


Mine life &ndash 10 years

0.34

0.39

0.52


Mine life &ndash 7 years

0.26

0.33

0.40


Calculation based on NPV table on pg 11 of the Canaccord report. Pls refer back to the report for their assumptions.

Eg. In the report, Canaccord' s base case + 7 years NPV is A$234.1m. Taking this figure, divide by 2 (ie. Alliance has 50% share), convert to S$ @ 1.0639, divide by no. of Alliance shares 480,763,760 (from 2016 AR), and present results in cents.

See link for brief write-up on valn of mining co using DCF:

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/022315/what-value-metrics-are-best-analyzing-companies-metals-and-mining-sector.asp

Quote

Discounted cash flow (DCF)  analysis is often applied to companies in the mining business because accurate evaluation of a company' s worth depends heavily on projected future earnings. In the mining industry, profit is determined more by revenues than by costs. The operational costs of a producing mine tend to remain relatively fixed, while revenues from sales vary greatly depending on the market price for the mined ore. The most important figures for accurate DCF analysis of mining companies are the  discount rate, operating costs (including capital expenditures) and projected future earnings. Projection of future earnings is further dependent on projections of commodity prices over the long term and on the grade of ore the company' s mines produce.

To arrive at a more accurate discount rate, mining company evaluation factors into the discount rate risks associated with specific mining projects and country-associated risks dependent on mine location. Either of these risk factors can increase the discount rate by 10% or more. An important element of cost projections is the price of replacing equipment over time.

Because of substantial variations that exist in cost and revenue projections for different mining projects a company has, a proper DCF analysis of the company as a whole is only arrived at by first doing a separate DCF analysis for each of the company' s mine projects.

Unquote

Please do your own due diligence! Tis is just sharing not a recommendation to buy or sell. 

 


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jack2906
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21-Apr-2017 13:07     
 
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dbs vickers, Lim & Tan...

pool100      ( Date: 21-Apr-2017 12:59) Posted:



Guys, any idea which brokerage doesn' t have any trading curbs on AM?

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