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Riverstone
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RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LIMITED
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investor999
Elite |
02-Dec-2020 07:28
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The price of gloves may be lower but the demand more than compensate and earnings will be higher
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investor999
Elite |
02-Dec-2020 07:24
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Should be making the first wave up slowly now
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Sgvale
Supreme |
02-Dec-2020 07:14
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More buyers lurking.
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TA_Expert
Supreme |
02-Dec-2020 01:52
Yells: "The World has changed" |
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Unfortunately many people do not realise it like you. They still keep thinking that demand will be super strong which implies that Covid will stay with us for years, 3-5 years or even longer.
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SGPhantom
Master |
02-Dec-2020 00:30
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Now THAT is what I call observant.
Man on the street feels the pulse.
Just like when C19 started, everyone flocks to SMarket, and a passerby walked by me and said to his friends, " we should by Sheng Shiong share!" (True story BTW)
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n3wbie
Elite |
02-Dec-2020 00:28
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With or without Covid-19, there is always a demand for gloves just that the tailwind had helped to maximise utilisation and of course operating leverage kicks in allowing for profit margin expansion. What really fuels this is the spike in ASPs for gloves due to a global shortage which enhances the profit margin. Of course the market is expecting FY20/21 to be years of supernormal profits aided by the macro tailwinds and the occurrence of more vaccines will eventually normalise the situation, with ASPs coming off and global demand / supply situation reaches an equilibrium. The sudden ramp-up in global demand also outpaced the growth rate that glove manufacturers can add production lines due to labour shortage, lockdowns etc. I guess RS and the broader glove sector are all trying to consolidate after the massive rally through this year and find a new higher base matched by historical valuation multiples. My amateur thinking is that the market is probably pricing equtities at FY22 (or beyond - think SATS, SIA, etc) earnings multiple. As such, the glove sector is going to come off peak earnings and find stability at historical multiples. The rotation in fund flow has been extremely obvious into cyclicals, some probably way outperforming what they deserve even in FY21.    Continuing to monitor this - just slightly baffled with piecemeal' s 50k purchases to demonstrate ' support' for the stock. Would probably make investors who are staying on the sidelines sit up more if it was a more sizeable buyback quantum.   |
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SGPhantom
Master |
02-Dec-2020 00:26
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I am glad we are both invested, so at least we have a common ground.
Maybe I'm more diversified as I'm in both pharma, Moderna esp and med supply, well now just RS actually after exiting MT N TG a month ago.
I also believe that PPEs are much needed post Vaccine, at least for a short term.
But I'm also very disappointed on how RS has deteriorated. Not just post split / bonus, but since a couple of months back.
I try to understand why it doesn't move like its peers, esp when it has additional segment in cleanroom.
Pointing to vaccine news alone is already passe.
Just like rise in C19 cases and require more gloves kind if news is already passe.
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Peter88
Senior |
02-Dec-2020 00:23
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More capacities are coming to the market , this will drive the profit margins down for sure . With vaccine around , demand will be less also . Just look at the selling prices of face masks,  now S$3.90 /50pieces vs S$29.50 /50pieces in April/May .
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cucina
Master |
01-Dec-2020 23:54
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From reading about the general efficacy of vaccines through the years, only the measles vaccine is effective abv 90%.   I' m sure the R& D surrounding COVID vaccines are real, but the short runway from discovery to launch is truly short n side effects may only be evident months or years later even if it doesn' t show up right away.   There is huge amount of dollars rolling into big pharma n little surprise on the rush to proclaim superiority n that happy days are here again.   If the anti vaccers hv their way, the roll out may not be widespread n widely accepted n may compromise the effectiveness of vaccination. Among people I know, so far no one wants a vaccine, me included.   Can the authorities force it on us?   Would anybody in this thread rush for one when it' s available.   I wonder.   |
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Bongbong
Master |
01-Dec-2020 23:49
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im just as invested and i also want it to go up (im sitting on significant paper losses as well). im purely saying a 100% vaccine news will be something out of expectations which will further add to negative sentiments (20% is arbitrary if u want to be particular) right now, only out of expectations vaccine news will probably further weigh it down. on the 100%, im just stating facts per public news (nothing to do with real R& D or not, dont recall i dispute its not r& D). dont know why u are so work up. for your benefit to slp better: moderna has 2 grp of testers: placebo vs vaccine receivers. placebo receivers has say 53 developing covid, vaccine receivers has say 5 developing covid. that gives u (1 - 5/53) = 94% efficacy. now among those 53 and 5, lets say 20 and 0 are severe respectively. that gives u (1 - 0/20) = 100% efficacy when measuring on serious covid. it does not change the fact that folks who received vaccine still developed covid. im purely asking u to understand the facts and this has nothing against u.  
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SGPhantom
Master |
01-Dec-2020 23:39
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Why do you think its just a headline and not real hardwork R&D and experimental results?
The Gloves & PPEs don't "tank another 20%" is because it could probably have been written off, though some headwinds may still come.
Mind you, RS had come down from the peak of 240s to current level, thats already almost 50%.
To drop another 20% from here, you are looking at almost $1.
To many investors, this is probably a level unfathom, unless there is a supernormal news that gloves are no longer required with vaccine!
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Bongbong
Master |
01-Dec-2020 23:29
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yes at this stage, its just vaccine makers competing to have the highest headline number. if it was really 100% effective, all covid related stocks would have tank another 20%. first BioNtech started with 90+% then Moderna up it with a 94% BioNtech not wanting to be outdone, declared 94.5% after further analysis Oxford cannot lose out, mentioned 70% but up to 90% if u look at specific group and now we have Moderna with the 100% if u look at specific scenario
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sting93
Member |
01-Dec-2020 23:12
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Honestly, I think the 100% is just a marketing gimmick/distraction to show they are the forerunners or having some imaginary edge over their competitors. If the vaccine is 100% effective in preventing ppl from contracting COVID, why need worry about severe cases of COVID happening.    ![]()
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Bongbong
Master |
01-Dec-2020 23:06
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I guess u didn' t bother to read the details. Like I said pls read properly. even the first few paragraph summarized for u: New findings from the Phase 3 clinical trial, which involved over 30,000 participants, showed the vaccine to be 100% effective at preventing severe Covid-19 and 94% at preventing the disease more broadly. 
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sting93
Member |
01-Dec-2020 23:05
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The focus should be 100% relative to what?
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SGPhantom
Master |
01-Dec-2020 22:45
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/11/30/moderna-submits-covid-19-vaccine-for-emergency-approval-says-it-is-100-effective-at-preventing-severe-forms-of-disease/amp/
Pls get updated. This was 24 hours ago.
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Bongbong
Master |
01-Dec-2020 21:53
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hmmm then why dont u explain the other side of the story then? and how it dilutes. would love to hear your views
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Bongbong
Master |
01-Dec-2020 21:51
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pls read the full article properly, the overall efficacy is 94+%. similar to previously announced.![]()
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iluvgambling
Master |
01-Dec-2020 21:35
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is this another covid related play ? look at the chart and you can probably tell where the share price will be heading. if you notice, when the index cheong up....covid related play will kena sell down..... so where to do you think the index is heading ? up or down for the next few months ? | ||||
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sting93
Member |
01-Dec-2020 20:58
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I' ve watched the video and think it' s a good video for the following reason
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