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Lucky03 Elite	09-Nov-2014 15:06        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lower bunker fuel price is a big starting step towards profitability. NOL must be seen to be able to take advantage of it. Liners as a whole should not offer any savings to the shippers by lowering freight rate to gain market share. Maersk must lead by example and not the first to pass saving back by being even more competitor. That's why alliances are important to address this spiral down effect.
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Kyoto2008 Elite	09-Nov-2014 15:02        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Had the same thought too, cheap why not? After I re visited the financials I decided no go.    I  went through the financial statements a  couple of mths back and already had a lot of misgivings about this co, posted some comments that got a lot of feathers ruffled right here in this forum.  My post here is just to share my thoughts on this, mainly for those who are thinking the same thing as I did, and that is why not since it' s so cheap.      Someone must take a close look at the debt, the financing is at a low rate in the past no doubt, and interest rates are climbing up, hence is there a ballooning effect?  We can' t use what they are paying now, but what they would need to borrow in order to service the loans.      They can reduce 4bln to 3bln, but what about the annual cash they burn?  After selling off APL, what' s the amount of the  income to be shrunk?    And if they lose that income, it means more cash to burn to pay the ang mors.       I never touch this stock at all, neither long nor short so don think I have a vested interest.      Just sharing, so ppl don buy up and end shortchanged.    Look up Tigerair and StatsChip to see all those ppl with heart pain kenna shortchanged.   Kyoto2008      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 14:46) Posted: Stats Chip also has TH, bought at 1.75 sold at 42 cents.    earlybird14      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 14:33) Posted: U r right on debt and NOL try to sell their 1 billion for debt. Tiger got Sia. NOL got temasek holding. Temasek was willing to save India company olam. No reason not to save singapore NOL. Just what price is worth for them to step in. 80 below? Why not. 70 60 50, slowly buy level by level. At least I see fuel oil is going to lower than 60 which is time to buy some and see ho
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Kyoto2008 Elite	09-Nov-2014 14:46        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Stats Chip also has TH, bought at 1.75 sold at 42 cents.    earlybird14      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 14:33) Posted: U r right on debt and NOL try to sell their 1 billion for debt. Tiger got Sia. NOL got temasek holding. Temasek was willing to save India company olam. No reason not to save singapore NOL. Just what price is worth for them to step in. 80 below? Why not. 70 60 50, slowly buy level by level. At least I see fuel oil is going to lower than 60 which is time to buy some and see how Kyoto2008      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 07:59) Posted: Better not touch.    This co has a $4bln debt, and interest rates are going up next year.    You already see FD rates climbing in SG,  3 mths  FD gone up to 1.55 based on yesterday' s ST. Second, the debts increasing due to losses.      If you see the past five years, losses run about 400mln a year.    It may have slowed this year, but far from turning around.      Third, mkt share is paltry and cannot compare with the rest of the mkt. This is going the way of Tigerair, but has no SIA to come save it.
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earlybird14 Supreme	09-Nov-2014 14:33        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U r right on debt and NOL try to sell their 1 billion for debt. Tiger got Sia. NOL got temasek holding. Temasek was willing to save India company olam. No reason not to save singapore NOL. Just what price is worth for them to step in. 80 below? Why not. 70 60 50, slowly buy level by level. At least I see fuel oil is going to lower than 60 which is time to buy some and see how Kyoto2008      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 07:59) Posted: Better not touch.    This co has a $4bln debt, and interest rates are going up next year.    You already see FD rates climbing in SG,  3 mths  FD gone up to 1.55 based on yesterday' s ST. Second, the debts increasing due to losses.      If you see the past five years, losses run about 400mln a year.    It may have slowed this year, but far from turning around.      Third, mkt share is paltry and cannot compare with the rest of the mkt. This is going the way of Tigerair, but has no SIA to come save it. gavinl      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 05:14) Posted: Agreed. But the recovery will not be so fast. Maybe have to wait at least a yr. May collect if below $0.70. Possible? Lol
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Nov-2014 10:46        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The fate of NOL has much to do with the success of the sale of APL Logistic. Netting close to US$1b will have much impact of reducing its debt by a quarter and significant savings on interest expense and finance cost which contributed to US$42m in Q3 FY14 and in turn will have direct impact on its P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Position. Going long term, NOL must also turn more aggressive to enlarge market share and overcome cost issues including flexibility and ability to be more responsive to situation such as the ongoing congestion at Southern California which contributed to US$30m in Q3 FY14. When NOL announced its intent to sell its HQ in Jul 2012, they managed to complete the sale by Oct 2012 within 3 mths. Reuters reported NOL intent to sell APL Logistic on 28 Aug. This is an international exercise and may take more than 3 mths so we will have to see if it will be able to complete by end Dec to impact FY14, given that it may have issued sales document and expecting first round of bid submission by end Nov.
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Kyoto2008 Elite	09-Nov-2014 08:13        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Call for a rights, and they can spend all the money within a yr like drinking beer. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 07:59) Posted: Better not touch.    This co has a $4bln debt, and interest rates are going up next year.    You already see FD rates climbing in SG,  3 mths  FD gone up to 1.55 based on yesterday' s ST. Second, the debts increasing due to losses.      If you see the past five years, losses run about 400mln a year.    It may have slowed this year, but far from turning around.      Third, mkt share is paltry and cannot compare with the rest of the mkt. This is going the way of Tigerair, but has no SIA to come save it. gavinl      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 05:14) Posted: Agreed. But the recovery will not be so fast. Maybe have to wait at least a yr. May collect if below $0.70. Possible? Lol
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Kyoto2008 Elite	09-Nov-2014 07:59        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Better not touch.    This co has a $4bln debt, and interest rates are going up next year.    You already see FD rates climbing in SG,  3 mths  FD gone up to 1.55 based on yesterday' s ST. Second, the debts increasing due to losses.      If you see the past five years, losses run about 400mln a year.    It may have slowed this year, but far from turning around.      Third, mkt share is paltry and cannot compare with the rest of the mkt. This is going the way of Tigerair, but has no SIA to come save it. gavinl      ( Date: 09-Nov-2014 05:14) Posted: Agreed. But the recovery will not be so fast. Maybe have to wait at least a yr. May collect if below $0.70. Possible? Lol
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gavinl Supreme	09-Nov-2014 05:14        gavinl About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed. But the recovery will not be so fast. Maybe have to wait at least a yr. May collect if below $0.70. Possible? Lol
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Nov-2014 23:12        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I hope i am right time earlybird. You chase it for too long. Fuel oil price give light to shipping liner in a long dark tunnel. This may trigger short to cover. The best way to cover is to push it down heavily when the dark tunnel is not totally light up. Now is the situation. I don't know how depth they will push down but it is time to collect at different level when they are doing so. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 22:55) Posted: Well, we may finally on the same page, earlybird. But I'm the early one ! You are right, you are right then. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 22:22) Posted: 76.5 never say never. Supporting till now, you may get right in one day. The day is today. This most probably is last push down after long bear move. Let see how depth the hand behind will push. after that is a big buy. What drive shipping line to today bad situation. High Fuel oil price and new container shipping volume. Fuel oil price is first shipping vol is 2nd. Now the first go lower and lower, good for the shipping line. Once fuel oil price go lower, vessel chartered rate will go even lower which will lower the operation cost of shipping line. THe freight rate is destined to go lower with new delivered giant vessels. But we see light here from 1 side.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Nov-2014 23:07        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Haha. Again you totally misjudge the situation. Th hold 65.5% of nol share, th need another 24.5% to achieve 90% and delist nol from sgx. If nol offer 1.5, majority will sell and leave. Nobody want to be the 10% which cannot trade openly in open market. You hold loh. I am happy with 1.50 MetalTrader3      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 22:39) Posted: Though many have diverse view on price acquisition, TH vs NOL. My view do not change. 1) NOL will not accept TH if offer $1.50. 2) TH is a majority shareholder but is not NOL. TH is an investment company.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Nov-2014 22:55        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well, we may finally on the same page, earlybird. But I'm the early one ! You are right, you are right then. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 22:22) Posted: 76.5 never say never. Supporting till now, you may get right in one day. The day is today. This most probably is last push down after long bear move. Let see how depth the hand behind will push. after that is a big buy. What drive shipping line to today bad situation. High Fuel oil price and new container shipping volume. Fuel oil price is first shipping vol is 2nd. Now the first go lower and lower, good for the shipping line. Once fuel oil price go lower, vessel chartered rate will go even lower which will lower the operation cost of shipping line. THe freight rate is destined to go lower with new delivered giant vessels. But we see light here from 1 side. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 19:39) Posted: Imagine what they are doing when the traders short it down heavily and then double up to push it up when they have pushed to extreme fear that many can't wait to throw or queue to sell out and give up. Any recovery will prompt more sellers as they put in high volume in q to manipulate the price that they want to cover back and buy up. They will repeat it a few rounds until their greed is satisfied. I suppose this has gone on for last 2+ mths. When they release the sell q and then push up hard, we can all imagine the power. Until then, one has to be able to stomach the wild ride and possibly extreme anxiety. The only possible saving grace here is that NOL will not collapse and disappear. It is still a an enterprise with good governance under the 'care' of an Army General who can in fact be faulted for being too conservative and news averse and TH owing 67% will eventually come in as white knight. Inaction of the target company management will only means music to the ear of traders. Only timely update will help to provide certainty and transparency that will cause these traders to be wary not to go too far and even back off. Many of us don't believe NOL is worth only 76.5c. I believe come December, it will be a different picture. Watch for any easing of the congestion problem at Southern California. It may be a first sign of any reversal besides update of progress with the sale of APL Logistic nearing end Nov.
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	08-Nov-2014 22:39        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Though many have diverse view on price acquisition, TH vs NOL. My view do not change. 1) NOL will not accept TH if offer $1.50. 2) TH is a majority shareholder but is not NOL. TH is an investment company.
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halleluyah Supreme	08-Nov-2014 22:37        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tks sis falcon. May u huat big big everyday. Falcon      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 22:29) Posted: Good luck Sis Halleluyah ) halleluyah      ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 12:04) Posted: REVERSE LIAO....jeep some
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Falcon Master	08-Nov-2014 22:29        Falcon About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good luck Sis Halleluyah ) halleluyah      ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 12:04) Posted: REVERSE LIAO....jeep some
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Nov-2014 22:22        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	76.5 never say never. Supporting till now, you may get right in one day. The day is today. This most probably is last push down after long bear move. Let see how depth the hand behind will push. after that is a big buy. What drive shipping line to today bad situation. High Fuel oil price and new container shipping volume. Fuel oil price is first shipping vol is 2nd. Now the first go lower and lower, good for the shipping line. Once fuel oil price go lower, vessel chartered rate will go even lower which will lower the operation cost of shipping line. THe freight rate is destined to go lower with new delivered giant vessels. But we see light here from 1 side. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 19:39) Posted: Imagine what they are doing when the traders short it down heavily and then double up to push it up when they have pushed to extreme fear that many can't wait to throw or queue to sell out and give up. Any recovery will prompt more sellers as they put in high volume in q to manipulate the price that they want to cover back and buy up. They will repeat it a few rounds until their greed is satisfied. I suppose this has gone on for last 2+ mths. When they release the sell q and then push up hard, we can all imagine the power. Until then, one has to be able to stomach the wild ride and possibly extreme anxiety. The only possible saving grace here is that NOL will not collapse and disappear. It is still a an enterprise with good governance under the 'care' of an Army General who can in fact be faulted for being too conservative and news averse and TH owing 67% will eventually come in as white knight. Inaction of the target company management will only means music to the ear of traders. Only timely update will help to provide certainty and transparency that will cause these traders to be wary not to go too far and even back off. Many of us don't believe NOL is worth only 76.5c. I believe come December, it will be a different picture. Watch for any easing of the congestion problem at Southern California. It may be a first sign of any reversal besides update of progress with the sale of APL Logistic nearing end Nov. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 19:22) Posted: These traders who short 3400 lots NOL last thurs ought to receive karma.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Nov-2014 22:11        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You misjudge today nol situation with that time temasek offered 2 dollar on nol. Th has increased their shareholding since that time offering. That time nol financial status was much stronger than now, the shipping market was full of potential. Since th can arrange a 'gong kia' retired general as nol md, we can know how is th influencing in nol management board. So long as th is willing to offer 1.5 dollar, they can easily get nol privatise. MetalTrader3      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 11:15) Posted: Even if Tamasek want buy, I doubt NOL will sell to him. NOL previously rejected Tamasek $2 offer. Because the management think it can fetch more. Hope NOL success in issuing APL Logistics (my suggestion: 40% as ipo) instead of selling fully. APL Shipping also need to target sell/lease more ships.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Nov-2014 19:39        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Imagine what they are doing when the traders short it down heavily and then double up to push it up when they have pushed to extreme fear that many can't wait to throw or queue to sell out and give up. Any recovery will prompt more sellers as they put in high volume in q to manipulate the price that they want to cover back and buy up. They will repeat it a few rounds until their greed is satisfied. I suppose this has gone on for last 2+ mths. When they release the sell q and then push up hard, we can all imagine the power. Until then, one has to be able to stomach the wild ride and possibly extreme anxiety. The only possible saving grace here is that NOL will not collapse and disappear. It is still a an enterprise with good governance under the 'care' of an Army General who can in fact be faulted for being too conservative and news averse and TH owing 67% will eventually come in as white knight. Inaction of the target company management will only means music to the ear of traders. Only timely update will help to provide certainty and transparency that will cause these traders to be wary not to go too far and even back off. Many of us don't believe NOL is worth only 76.5c. I believe come December, it will be a different picture. Watch for any easing of the congestion problem at Southern California. It may be a first sign of any reversal besides update of progress with the sale of APL Logistic nearing end Nov. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 19:22) Posted: These traders who short 3400 lots NOL last thurs ought to receive karma.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Nov-2014 19:22        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	These traders who short 3400 lots NOL last thurs ought to receive karma.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Nov-2014 18:53        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree with you that privatization of divestment of NOL is near. Could be anytime after sale of APL Logistic to dress it up with a large windfall and cash position of about US$1b. Difficult to tell the offer price. If TH wants to take it private itself and then sell off to 3rd party, it may offer near NAV of 92 which means a 'premium' over current price of 76.5 and then it will put up to industry for anything much higher after dressing it up. Likewise, any 3rd party such as Hapag will make similar offer but TH holding 67% may not let go. hem2998      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 16:44) Posted: What else can you deduce if 65% of a company is held by one party. It calls the shots. If it wants to sell its stake at ,say 40c also no choice. If it votes NO sale to APL also no choice. I was vested at $1 and cut at 90c . Looking at how TH has sold off its building and now possibly APL..it only signals one thing...it wants to take NOL private...but at what px? My guess is NAV or slight premium. It will not pay a cent more. Market is pricing all of this in. I hope I'm wrong for aake of all shareholders...but looking at how they sold Stats is a sign of desparation to unwind some of their investments...regardless of what others think. MetalTrader3      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 12:14) Posted: I think you can call TH & ask what you stated. All traders will probably laugh at you
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hem2998 Veteran	08-Nov-2014 16:44        hem2998 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What else can you deduce if 65% of a company is held by one party. It calls the shots. If it wants to sell its stake at ,say 40c also no choice. If it votes NO sale to APL also no choice. I was vested at $1 and cut at 90c . Looking at how TH has sold off its building and now possibly APL..it only signals one thing...it wants to take NOL private...but at what px? My guess is NAV or slight premium. It will not pay a cent more. Market is pricing all of this in. I hope I'm wrong for aake of all shareholders...but looking at how they sold Stats is a sign of desparation to unwind some of their investments...regardless of what others think. MetalTrader3      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 12:14) Posted: I think you can call TH & ask what you stated. All traders will probably laugh at you. hem2998      ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 11:54) Posted: i thot TH IS NOL :P
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