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alliance mineral resources move up
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huatahrr
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27-Apr-2017 11:42
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look ok...minor up and down 
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risktaker
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27-Apr-2017 11:32
Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise " |
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Looks like gone case T.T why big boy throw......like that how to buy alliance zzz | ||||
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tankookoo
Master |
27-Apr-2017 11:28
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TAWANA RESOURCES in Australia dropped around to 24.5 cents from 27 cents hmm...news is postive but something reatilers dun know??
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RedEye1811
Master |
27-Apr-2017 11:27
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I have tried to view this objectively working through some numbers and just a few thoughts: 1. Canaccord analyst estimated they would require approximately AU$45 million pre-production capex. With AU$25 million from Burwill and AU$15 million from TAW capital raising this gives AU$40 million. This more or less covers the pre-production capex. On this basis AMAL can perhaps feel confident AMAL is NOT going to do a capital raising that will dilute our holdings (if vested). 2. If AMAL gets a confirmed contract with Mitsubishi that will get production going in August then this will more than likely cover the cash flow requirement prior to the first delivery. My take on this is it will reduce the need for debt financing for W/C purposes, thus keeping cost finance cost downs thus improving bottomline. Also, if a reliable cash flow is in place before lithium output comes online then reduces risk TAW and AMAL will need to do further capital raising so again current shareholders of AMAL may face less risk of share dilution. 3. As pointed out by furnaces, if we assume what the CEO of AMAL says is accurate an revenue from tantalum output would offset the lithium production costs, then it can be see the revenue from lithium sales would more or less be straight profit. If that the case then the basic EPS will be far higher than without the offset. (Naturally should be other costs so not escaping that but EPS will be better). 4. As investors we need to be mindful of the various milestones before the first delivery. Thus, we should be realistic that share price may not jump straight to top of the queue immediately but will be a series of steps such as JORC, commissioning of mine, finishing of infrastructure build and first delivery. But as may be a series of steps than a single rocket, this can provide current and interested retail investors better chance to grab holdings at better value that likely produce the big return when first delivery made. Rather than go in all at once can grab gradually. A key step for examine would be the JORC report. As noted in ST article they cannot say how much is in the mine till independently verified. But while they not saying how much one can perhaps read between the lines and form the assumption it must be something meaningful. Without giving the AMAL and TAW directors too much credit it should be reasonable not to presume they trying to run some fraud. And if they did not think they had a decent bundle of resources would they put their heads on the chopping block to start capital raising, putting themselves legally liable taking advance and so forth if they did not feel something meaningful there. And one can say that the JORC could come out with something different, it is only reasonable to think it would be quite ' bad luck' if the first place they drilled was the only place on entire area with lithium (yes, could be true but being practical can probably lean to feeling something exists). |
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EmmGru
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 10:49
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With the publicity in Straits times today and the trading break, the enterprising singaporean will have time to deposit money with broker 
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furnaces
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 10:37
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Another note from today's strategies article. CEO says Tantalum credit is more than enough to cover for the production cost. So assuming no flow over. 100% Tantalum revenue to cover 100% of the production cost, which makes lithium concentrate free.
So I did a recalculation again. Target average about 140k ton per annum of lithium concentrate. (120k to 160k) Us$880 per ton. Assuming 6.3% li20 is about us$925 per ton. Total lithium concentrate revenue will be us$925 x 140000 = S$180mil 50% to Alliance will be gross profit of S$90mil per year. Put a conservative 8x PE = S$720mil market cap. An increase from my previous estimation. |
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c3_jail
Senior |
27-Apr-2017 10:35
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anyhow say ah :P
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huatahrr
Member |
27-Apr-2017 10:34
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curbs will not be lifted until bb finished with their buying..lol
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risktaker
Supreme |
27-Apr-2017 10:30
Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise " |
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tmr will lift trading halt lol |
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c3_jail
Senior |
27-Apr-2017 10:29
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Yeah guess still suspend :D
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risktaker
Supreme |
27-Apr-2017 10:27
Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise " |
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go arrange meeting with the credit head or risk management head of the broker house...
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EmmGru
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 10:26
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Should be no way for AMAL to start trading today rite? I want to go jalan jalan..... haha
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ben_kieran
Member |
27-Apr-2017 10:17
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with all these news and offtakes, is it enough motivation for those bbs remove the curbs to encourage more buyers?
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papayaface
Supreme |
27-Apr-2017 10:13
Yells: "This is the best time to enter....when everythings uncertain" |
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Biggest problem is the trading curbs imposed by the broking houses. Without removing it, 40 cts wiii be the level for shortists. Good luck
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amlithiumpower
Senior |
27-Apr-2017 10:04
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Not sure how ASX able to allow 1 day reinstatement after suspension. Could just extend trading halt. So far SGX listing should not have such cowboy play ba. Slim chance but so funny, trading halt 3 days, suspension 1 day? Ha... Hope AM has a decent suspension period to conclude its potential Mitsubishi agreement.
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EmmGru
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 09:51
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Hahaha ya we have been through a lot as shareholders, lun through all the price volatility and naysayers. Very proud of us 
Now we got better than news, we got cashflow!! Burwill paid the initial advance already and Tawana raised funds. Money in the bag and more to come!
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EmmGru
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 09:48
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Becos AMAL is owner mah. Tawana is operator only, have to keep earning their money by ensuring the mine is up and running efficiently, and have to do all things necessary to make sure operations can run i.e. raise funds, spend money on capex, provide technical expertise etc etc If Tawana don' t do job well, AMAL still hold the valuable asset and can work with another operator. The risk and reward profile of owner and operator is different. Tawana don' t hold the asset risk i.e. the risk of owning bald hill, which is only valuable if valuable minerals can be found inside the ground.
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timothylim890
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 09:46
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TAW is gradually being bid up after falling to 24c. At 26c now. I am suddenly reminded of just how much speculation has been swimming around this thread ever since the TH came into effect. We need some news!
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EmmGru
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 09:43
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Rehashing an old article with feature on AMAL CEO' s background in case some haven' t read before: https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11413-alliance-mineral-assets-strikes-while-lithium-is-hot
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furnaces
Veteran |
27-Apr-2017 09:43
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Based on the current situation, seems like AMAL had a great deal compared to TAW.
1) the liability of Burwill offtake is entirely on TAW and lithco 2) TAW had to do capital raising in order to earn the farm-in. 3) Tantalum credits to AMAL first? As TAW hasn't earn it yet? Can expect AMAL to continue trading at a premium compared TAW. But how much?
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