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Victorious Spirit Eagle
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
06-Nov-2022 15:42
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Mark Hulbert 
Here&rsquo s strong new evidence that a U.S. stock-market rally is coming soonLast Updated: Nov. 5, 2022 at 8:10 a.m. ETFirst Published: Nov. 4, 2022 at 7:18 a.m. ETBy 
Mark HulbertFollow 
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Robert Shiller' s ' Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index' looks bullish now
 
 
Listen to article
Length3 minutes
 
 
 
Yet another piece of the investor-sentiment puzzle is falling into place to support a sizeable U.S. stock-market rally. I&rsquo m referring to an index that measures investors&rsquo confidence that any market dip will be soon followed by a recovery. The index, called the &ldquo U.S. Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index,&rdquo was created two decades ago by Yale University&rsquo s Robert Shiller. It is based on a monthly survey in which investors are asked to guess the market&rsquo s direction the day after a 3% market decline. My analysis of the data indicates that the index has contrarian significance. That is, high readings &mdash high confidence that any market drop will be followed by a quick recovery &mdash is a bad sign. Low readings, in contrast, are bullish. This past summer the index got lower than 7% of all other monthly readings since Shiller began this survey in the 1990s. While that in itself is low enough to impress contrarians, it&rsquo s also encouraging that the index hasn&rsquo t jumped more since then. The normal pattern is for bullishness to jump whenever the market begins to rally. But the index currently stands at just the 20th  percentile of the historical distribution. In fact, the latest reading is even lower than the one registered in March 2020, at the bottom of the waterfall decline that accompanied the initial lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic. But as for the summer of 2022, you have to go back to late 2018 and early 2019 to find another time when the Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index was lower than where it stands now. Those months coincided with the bottom of the 19%+ correction (bear market) caused by the Fed&rsquo s late 2018 rate-hike cycle. This index&rsquo s highest reading in recent years came in August 2021, when it rose to the 91st  percentile of the historical distribution. As if we need any reminding, that came just two months before the top of the secondary market and four months before the broad market hit its top. These two are just data points. A more comprehensive analysis is reflected in the table below, based on monthly data for the U.S. Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index over the last two decades.
Though these differences in average returns are statistically significant, it&rsquo s important to emphasize that there are no guarantees. Sentiment is not the only factor that moves the market, after all. Furthermore, even if a strong rally materializes, we can&rsquo t know if it will be the beginning of a new bull market or just a bear-market rally. The answer will depend at least partly on how slowly or quickly investors regain their confidence that market dips will be quickly followed by a recovery. For the moment, contrarian analysis suggests that a strong rally is likely in coming weeks. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at  [email protected] |
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Goldendog
Master |
06-Nov-2022 08:55
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I lost 30k in LUNA but not yet earn back from other shit coins as others also dropped 
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
05-Nov-2022 16:13
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I think gg forward crytpo may not relate to stock.. hearsay smart money are positioning their money into crypto, i loss 120k in luna but i hv make back buying other, so the losses is not so painful,, initiately it was with pain. recently i buy ADA  AVAX n SOL.  |
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
05-Nov-2022 16:08
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Keep Calm & Carry On: What To Do When The Market Dips
October 7, 2021
Following a rocky September, Wall Street&rsquo s main indices have so far see-sawed between gains and losses as inflation concerns tempered optimism over the pace of the US economic recovery. How the rest of October will play out remains to be seen. With the Chicago Board Options Exchange&rsquo s CBOE Volatility Index  (VIX)  rising above 20, the road ahead could remain rocky. The VIX is commonly referred to as investors&rsquo &ldquo fear gauge&rdquo . For the past three months, it has hovered around the mid-teens level. It can be unnerving when markets whip back and forth, and you may be tempted to hit the panic button and sell your investments. That&rsquo s a  costly mistake. Instead, the better option is to keep calm and carry on with your investment plan. Selloffs are a natural part of investing Stock markets do not keep going up, forever. From time to time, it is normal that stock prices will experience pullbacks due to negative economic developments, political shocks, disappointing corporate earnings reports, or other factors that affect investor sentiment. You can think of a pullback as a sort of a reset for the stock market before it recovers and rises to its former highs. Think back to last September (2020) when the S& P 500 experienced a nearly 10% drop. If you had panic-sold your assets and never re-entered the stock market, you would have missed out on the S& P 500&rsquo s seven-month winning streak this year. During market corrections, your emotions can often be your own worst enemy. Going to cash may feel comforting when markets are down, but selling during a downturn essentially turns your paper losses into real losses. Stick to your investment planIf you&rsquo re investing for the future &ndash say,  making regular contributions to your retirement savings  account &ndash a short-term downturn is not a reason to radically change your investment strategy and / or sell off huge chunks of your portfolio. Your best option is simply to hang on tight. During the 2008 global financial crisis, those who stayed invested in the S& P 500 recorded twice the returns of those who fled to cash for as little as three months. ![]() Source: Syfe, CBOE Making drastic changes to your portfolio now is counterproductive. But by holding on, you&rsquo re already in position to capture the gains when the market inevitably bounces back.  An opportunity to buy quality investments at a discountWarren Buffett famously said that investors need to be &ldquo greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy&rdquo . As other investors flee, his mantra suggests that a market decline could be a good time to  cash in on lower equity prices. The goal is to buy and hold these investments for the long term, giving them time to recover their value. An effective strategy for long-term investors to put their excess cash to work at discounted prices is by  dollar cost averaging (DCA). Simply put, you invest a certain amount into the market at regular intervals. This way, you can capitalise on lower prices now while avoiding the risk of buying all at once ahead of another market drop. This method also helps to take emotions out of your investing. By investing a consistent sum regularly &ndash regardless of current market conditions &ndash you eliminate the temptation to second-guess your investment strategy, or time the market. Think long termMarket volatility can be unsettling, but it is part and parcel of investing. It&rsquo s worth remembering that over any 20-year period, the  US stock market has never lost money. The average annual return over a 20-year period stands at about 6.7%.  As a long-term investor, your best strategy to navigate choppy markets is to stay invested and not panic. With the right mindset, you&rsquo ll be able to overcome any market ups and downs and emerge more resilient than you were before. 
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
05-Nov-2022 16:06
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&ldquo It is easy to be pleasant when life flows by like a song, but the man worth while is the one who will smile when everything goes dead wrong. For the test of the heart is trouble, and it always comes with years, and the smile that is worth the praises of earth is the smile that shines through the tears.&rdquo―   Ella Wheeler Wilcox  
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
05-Nov-2022 16:01
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I bought NET last nite, it drop after earning reopt, i found only growth is lesser, but it is still a solid growth regardless, | ||||||||||||
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Goldendog
Master |
04-Nov-2022 14:04
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Market drop again after FED announced another round of interest hike..drop like never ending | ||||||||||||
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Goldendog
Master |
02-Nov-2022 09:01
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Yes..got to hang on to what i have currently..but am thinking of getting more if got spare funds..i think got potential..now buy in at 60 if just go back to the ATH of 290+ would be 4x already..
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
01-Nov-2022 00:03
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SQ is fine, no worry, but got to hv holding power. Growing like crazy... can buy.
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Goldendog
Master |
31-Oct-2022 17:02
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I did nothing since the big drop..also no spare funds to buy on dip.. I was thinking of buying some SQ if got spare funds, what you think?
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
31-Oct-2022 15:34
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Last week i buy more of PINS and TWLO. today i bgt Sol and a bit of ADA.. may u all achieve real peace, no worry, nothing is permanent ,good time will come again. |
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Goldendog
Master |
30-Oct-2022 07:54
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Yes,i also come by to read daily but seldom post..mood super low seeing my bloody portfolio..enjoy your holidays Mr Vic..now is good time to travel as many opening up and their currencies dropped..like Japan..good time to go now
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
29-Oct-2022 17:30
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selling is bad ideas, buying the dip aka cost averaging is fine provided u can bare to see it go lower,  and doing nothing is the best, come back 3 yrs time and u will know why....especailly crypto,,,
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
29-Oct-2022 17:27
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I went to Thailand and later saleng in Johore for meditation retreat, i do read but no post as the mood of everyone is very bad.LOL Hope we soar intoi 2023.
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cheongweevictor
Supreme |
29-Oct-2022 17:25
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Hopefully it is repeat of the last rate increase, henceforth as rate go up so go up the mkt,, There are truely no ohter place to hide yr money from inflation, except in the stock mkt and crypto Stock and crypto all set to soar pass previous high into 2023, and my buddy and school mentor still said no recession, only technically.  
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tth1311
Member |
24-Oct-2022 18:55
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Chinese is in attack from all directions, properties, chips, manufacturing and etc  | ||||||||||||
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Goldendog
Master |
24-Oct-2022 08:18
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Yes, i think now can DCA some counters if wants to..even if not bottom it should be near bottom already now buy will not rugi much..
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Goldendog
Master |
22-Oct-2022 09:32
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Since market crashing down when war started everyone here like fleeing..very quiet no one post chats anymore. I think everyone is very sad seeing their portfolio dropping over 50-60%..including myself  ![]() Now only can diamond hands and hold..hope things slowly recovering back soon..but i think things will only be better when the war stopped or Putin is dead whichever comes first..
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skneok
Senior |
21-Oct-2022 10:56
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Long time no see everyone.. hope all are well..
Been busy with my new venture.. I m still holding strong?. Doing nothing yet.. |
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ilovesarah
Member |
21-Oct-2022 08:44
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I like ur view. I appreciate you don' t anyhow buta buta like cowboy.  thansk keep posting more 
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