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SMRT
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Tangowhisky
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24-Jul-2016 22:40
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I bought a few lots last week just to vote No! Ask Temasek go and f spider. Only dare to bully people within Singapore. Go out of Singapore maciam mouse.  |
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mrwise
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24-Jul-2016 21:18
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Agree! Good analysis... We should vote against!
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famouspinky
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24-Jul-2016 20:47
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10% premium very good liao. Cos this guy assets only choo choo trains
Lol .but fares gonna go up after being privatised. Why suck own people like that?
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happyharvest
Elite |
24-Jul-2016 20:25
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hope all those old folks, uncles and aunties could come here and read your analysis.  there are too many fear mongering articles spreading around by those anal sent by TH. mostly likelty those anal is buying a huge amount of stocks betting that the deal will be through. And is the stock price purposely pushed down for them to collect?
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JTWKSG
Member |
24-Jul-2016 18:07
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Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company. What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.   Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:  1. Why accept a losing deal? If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?  2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects? With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come? 3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare? SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP! Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line? http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/changis-t5-to-be-bigger-than-3-current-terminals-combined http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/thomson-east-coast-mrt-line-may-be-extended-to-airport As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?  4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9. https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53 Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1. 5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers? One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/singapore-subway-shares-lag-hong-kong-mtr-amid-breakdowns-chart As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?  In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management?  For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.  6.  $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value? They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:  Tigerair SIA offered a final  45%  premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed. https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X NOL France' s CMA CGM offered a  49%  premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m It had not been paying dividends since 2011. https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03 OSIM Osim CEO offered a premium of about  38.8% and 40.6%  to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/ron-sim-raises-offer-to-take-osim-private-to-s139-a-share OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/osim-profit-slumps-66-with-spore-its-worst-performing-market OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9 https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23 SMRT After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of  8.7%  over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.  Make your own call. 
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sun233
Elite |
24-Jul-2016 17:07
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I' m not sure. It' s very interesting isn' t it SIAS has been very quiet and not much said. Only Citi has a contararian view. They said offer too low. Will have to wait for details. I should think this offer would have to be debated in parliament or something!! Wonder which company they will take private next. singtel, keppel...........! Lelong, lelong. Oh and of course " scheme of arrangement" and not general offer so absolutely no chance of an increase!!!
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
24-Jul-2016 10:53
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I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad.
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JTWKSG
Member |
24-Jul-2016 10:16
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Yes, I remember clearly he said that we might not see each other again next year. One shareholder even expressed her fear if they are going to do a NOL since he said that? But never in our minority shareholders' mind would expect them to offer a lowball deal, nothing even close to NOL 49% above premium of the last unaffected traded price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol The C, Koh also said during the recent AGM that the NRFF should be announced very soon by next year.  One prominent shareholder tried to press Koh for more details of the NRFF, but Koh repeatedly answered as if he is a broken tape recorder " wait for govt announcement" .  Therefore I also don' t believe that TH only know about this deal after the announcement.  If you noticed, every time someone talk unfavourably about the offer, there will be comments if we don' t accept the offer, we shall face a worst fate of share price drop to $1 or even worse $0.80 now. Fear mongering to the max? Now, if the offer failed and resulted to share price plunge, wouldn' t TH as a majority shareholder be at a disadvantage too? So why should TH accept the NRFF deal if this is a losing deal like what all analysts claim?  Do you notice they are trying to shift the focus of voting for the NRFF to TH offer? Which voting comes first now?  NRFF or TH buyback offer come first? If NRFF voting come first since it was announced earlier, wouldn' t it make sense for shareholders to reject the deal? But since TH as the majority SH accept the NRFF deal, so does that means the rest of shareholders no need to vote for NRFF anymore? 
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
24-Jul-2016 09:15
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Can they exercise compulsory delisting even if they don't hit 90% - no one seems to know this answer since this SA is a rare occurrence
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Demostation
Supreme |
24-Jul-2016 08:09
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Just accept it, as I said this is not a David against Golliath and David wins.   No, Golliath wins here.   Furthermore as somone said, if you don' t want it (the offer), there are other ways to make you want it.   How? By pressing down the price to 80 cents, how do you like it this way? |
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qwertyuiop00
Veteran |
24-Jul-2016 01:47
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This is a scheme arrangement, and not a voluntary cash offer. Hence there will not be any revision to offer prices nor will they be able to buy cheaply from the open market even though the market price is cheaper than what they have offered. 75% shareholder's approval from shareholders present and voting "for" will be required at the scheme meeting for the scheme arrangement to go through. The meeting will most likely be in October. There will be an EGM before that though, probably in August/early September , from what I heard. Insiders already knew about what's going on in the company but they refused to disclose when asked about what's the resolutions of the EGM about. So it's all bullshit when T said they only knew about what happened last minute lol. Furthermore, D also said at the July AGM to a shareholder during the Q&A that "we might not see each other next year again". Lol | ||||
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
23-Jul-2016 19:52
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Actually I am happy to hold on for the Long term. I am not happy about being forced to sell.
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happyharvest
Elite |
23-Jul-2016 18:31
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seems like TH has sent many of her people one way or another to psycho the shareholders to accept the offer with scaremongering  tactics. |
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sengsk
Elite |
23-Jul-2016 17:58
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As I say, we small investors are nothing, just accept it. What if this offer fail, they surely got other plan and it might cause the price keep falling like falling knife that will get you cry with no tears. Don' t be hero, as hero always die first. Don' t hope for re-encounter offer, Don' t make day dream....
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JesseTyler
Veteran |
23-Jul-2016 13:53
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I will vote to accept the offer. In consideration to the debts, government subsidy and market share ownership, 1.68 is already a very good offer. I expect initially only about 1.50-1.55. Don' t be complacent, wait till Temasek lower the offer price, then complain also no use. If SMRT rejects the offer by then, gone case for SMRT lohh  ~ |
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
23-Jul-2016 12:13
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I think a lot of details still omitted. Will wait till the scheme documents are issued. if they still need 90% acceptance to delist then this entire
debate is moot as I won't be accepting at this price. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
23-Jul-2016 10:44
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Temasek gone public in straits time offer would not be offered, it a take it or leave it approach so typical. |
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
23-Jul-2016 09:56
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Do they still need 90% acceptance to acquire compulsorily and delist from SGX? If so I don't care about the generous offer price..
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sun233
Elite |
23-Jul-2016 07:45
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Wow seems like there is a possibility. Fingers crossed. Press has been rather quiet. Notice no ministers saying anything!! I' m vested at 1.47. will wait till last minute to submit but am waiting to see if SIAS will say anything like they did for Tiger.
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GoldNugget
Elite |
22-Jul-2016 21:26
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I mean NOL
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