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Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued Post Reply Rate topic
JohnTan625 Member	24-Feb-2021 08:20        JohnTan625 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There were some years where payout is 40-120% for FY2017 and 2018. It depends on which period it is at. The dividend is 1 cent, which is 20-25% of EPS, when the company is staging for a ?next growth phase? period. That is evident given Yishun Ave 9. The management also mentioned they will be ?vigilant and selective as it continues to explore property development and investment opportunities.? This, is an extra catalyst for projects beyond Yishun Ave 9, and is certainly welcomed as a additional boost to its RNAV target.
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stockinvestor Master	24-Feb-2021 06:37        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	no choice.  some other companies even cut dividends to zero. investshare      ( Date: 24-Feb-2021 06:22) Posted: Dividend cut so much.. lose a few hundred dollar in my income this year.
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investshare Supreme	24-Feb-2021 06:22        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dividend cut so much.. lose a few hundred dollar in my income this year.
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JohnTan625 Member	24-Feb-2021 00:06        JohnTan625 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, results and dividend within expectations. Good to note also: 1. the impact of the impairment of Melbourne hotel on the balance sheet was reduced due to the appreciation of the aud against Sgd - nearly more than Sgd 5m in 2H2020, leading to Fy2020 gain of Sgd 7.0m. Assuming all remains constant and hotel activity increased, there might be a chance for valuation gain for the hotel this year. But I would not put this scenario in an estimate. 2. Along with the The aud appreciation for Australian asset, led to book value to nearly 78 cents now. 3. Adding balance of Parc Botannia revenue, 160.4m - adding EPS to 6-8 cents (conservatively) we could be looking at 84 to 86 cents , assuming no change in value to property values. This leaves a fair value of 5X-60 cents possible, excluding Yishun Ave 9 project. Dyodd stockinvestor      ( Date: 23-Feb-2021 21:24) Posted: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SHL_FY2020.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=649214 Results are within expectations due to covid delay and dividend cut to 1c is also expected. By my estimates, Sing Holdings recognized $172.35m revenue and $36.326m (their 70% share is $25.193m) net profit from Parc Botannia in FY2020.  The company announced " only" $16.6m net profit due to an $8.9m write down of the Melbourne hotel.  There is a further $164m revenue from Parc Botannia to be recognized in FY2021 (assuming it obtains TOP by the end of the year).  There is therefore a good chance of higher net profit in FY2021 than FY2020.
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stockinvestor Master	23-Feb-2021 21:24        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SHL_FY2020.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=649214 Results are within expectations due to covid delay and dividend cut to 1c is also expected. By my estimates, Sing Holdings recognized $172.35m revenue and $36.326m (their 70% share is $25.193m) net profit from Parc Botannia in FY2020.  The company announced " only" $16.6m net profit due to an $8.9m write down of the Melbourne hotel.  There is a further $164m revenue from Parc Botannia to be recognized in FY2021 (assuming it obtains TOP by the end of the year).  There is therefore a good chance of higher net profit in FY2021 than FY2020.
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stockinvestor Master	22-Feb-2021 13:44        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0.405 cleared for now. JohnTan625      ( Date: 17-Feb-2021 22:04) Posted: A rather decent closing as it revisits pre Covid price range of 0.41. At that point of 0.41 back in Feb 2020, the price did not take into account: 1. nearer than before TOP of Parc Botannia (new NAV of 0.8X cents), which would have drawn it towards 0.5X range in a few months? time then (and then Covid took place) or even if market allows, 0.6X like what KGIE earlier estimated in 2018, sans the hotel impairment, which took 0.024 off and is insignificant. 2. the new project Yishun Ave 9, which provides the much desired land bank visibility and boost to next-term prospects (0.30 EPS worth before discount to RNAV). Hence good factors now provide a good basis for move towards the TP 0.5X now: 1. Nearer to TOP of Parc Botannia 2. FY FS announcement in 1-2 weeks? time, with a likely dividend. However, in an upward price movement, price gains will be more important, and dividends are another reason for more gains. 3. Melbourne eases from lockdown. Also, significant upside for Melbourne future plans, given Melbourne Docklands doorstep Marvel Stadium in upgrade works to make it an all year entertainment arena. SG real-estate stocks seldom hit 1 x P/B. However, 30% discount from BV (TP 0.5X) is not demanding. Once 0.5X range is attained, we would then look into the next growth stage to bring up its RNAV to 1.1-1.2 (TP 0.7-0.80), via an EC project which is targeted at a more sustainable clientele. There is a Sgd 100-120m profit there possible from this project, hence approx. 0.30 EPS there. This is based on a 11XX-1200 psf estimate. To hit 0.7-0.80 is not impossible as it nears Yishun Ave 9 launch. Dyodd
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JohnTan625 Member	17-Feb-2021 22:04        JohnTan625 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	A rather decent closing as it revisits pre Covid price range of 0.41. At that point of 0.41 back in Feb 2020, the price did not take into account: 1. nearer than before TOP of Parc Botannia (new NAV of 0.8X cents), which would have drawn it towards 0.5X range in a few months? time then (and then Covid took place) or even if market allows, 0.6X like what KGIE earlier estimated in 2018, sans the hotel impairment, which took 0.024 off and is insignificant. 2. the new project Yishun Ave 9, which provides the much desired land bank visibility and boost to next-term prospects (0.30 EPS worth before discount to RNAV). Hence good factors now provide a good basis for move towards the TP 0.5X now: 1. Nearer to TOP of Parc Botannia 2. FY FS announcement in 1-2 weeks? time, with a likely dividend. However, in an upward price movement, price gains will be more important, and dividends are another reason for more gains. 3. Melbourne eases from lockdown. Also, significant upside for Melbourne future plans, given Melbourne Docklands doorstep Marvel Stadium in upgrade works to make it an all year entertainment arena. SG real-estate stocks seldom hit 1 x P/B. However, 30% discount from BV (TP 0.5X) is not demanding. Once 0.5X range is attained, we would then look into the next growth stage to bring up its RNAV to 1.1-1.2 (TP 0.7-0.80), via an EC project which is targeted at a more sustainable clientele. There is a Sgd 100-120m profit there possible from this project, hence approx. 0.30 EPS there. This is based on a 11XX-1200 psf estimate. To hit 0.7-0.80 is not impossible as it nears Yishun Ave 9 launch. Dyodd
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stockinvestor Master	17-Feb-2021 15:57        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0.40 cleared!
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stockinvestor Master	17-Feb-2021 15:32        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0.39 and $0.395 cleared!
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stockinvestor Master	17-Feb-2021 10:37        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	151,300 done at $0.385 and 106,400 done at $0.39 so far.
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JohnTan625 Member	16-Feb-2021 20:55        JohnTan625 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Awaiting the spike for it to move to a new range. I believe a decent price should be 0.5X as we near TOP of Parc Botannia. 0.5X is approx. 30-40% discount to the NAV of post-Parc Botannia. This price also does not take into account the upcoming launch of Yishun Ave 9. The new RNAV could be 1.10-1.20, leading to a to-be price range of 0.70-0.80. Dyodd. Caveat emptor
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 16:06        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	67,300 shares done at $0.39 so far.
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 14:00        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0.385 convincingly cleared.
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 13:02        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ok volume done at $0.385 has exceeded that of $0.38 today. stockinvestor      ( Date: 16-Feb-2021 12:09) Posted: Lunchtime volume 337,800 shares.  the bulk of it:  168,800 at $0.38 and 159,900 at $0.385.
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 12:11        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/article/view/rcms223540/quick-take-how-will-another-round-of-property-cooling-measures-affect-property-developer-stocks In the other FSMone article, they also mentioned their initiation on Sing Holdings coverage.
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 12:09        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lunchtime volume 337,800 shares.  the bulk of it:  168,800 at $0.38 and 159,900 at $0.385.
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stockinvestor Master	16-Feb-2021 09:56        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$0.38 cleared on higher volume JohnTan625      ( Date: 16-Feb-2021 07:52) Posted: Yes agreed
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JohnTan625 Member	16-Feb-2021 07:52        JohnTan625 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes agreed
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stockinvestor Master	15-Feb-2021 17:11        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Volume low but more lots done at $0.38 than $0.375.
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stockinvestor Master	15-Feb-2021 10:22        stockinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	decent buyers at $0.375 for the first time in awhile. JohnTan625      ( Date: 11-Feb-2021 15:43) Posted: Agree - it?s rather conservative and can only serve as a floor RNAV and the TP can only serve as a minimum target price. (Saw wrongly on the report that 2021TP 0.48, it is mentioned as 2022TP 0.48, which i suppose refers to 12-month target price). I refer to 2018 Report from KGI - stating for TP 0.68. https://www.kgieworld.sg/securities/resources/ck/files/sg-report/Sing%20Holdings_Company%20Update_Maintain%20BUY_KGI%20Securities%20180405.pdf Given the absence of covid related impairments to hotels and project completion delay, the above TP 0.68 from KGI also did not also account for the upcoming Yishun EC 9 project, which means a TP of 0.7-0.80 is probable. Will still be looking for movement, in the meantime, towards the TP 0.5X as Parc Botannia moves towards TOP, with 0.41-0.43 being the next short term price target. The recent Melbourne improvement, Australia Open, and vaccine deployments should bring strength to this. Dyodd
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