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RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LIMITED
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fatpanda
Supreme |
21-Dec-2020 08:40
Yells: "Another wonderful day!" |
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Today' s news on ST.
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Sgvale
Supreme |
21-Dec-2020 08:25
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When vaccines is coming out. The clever virus mutated.
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tertm141
Member |
21-Dec-2020 07:23
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RS is now in a downtrend.. follow the trend until the trend ends. Never get too emotional with any stocks be it US markets or SG markets, strictly business. Can get back in when the trend turn again.... | ||||
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SmallSmall
Supreme |
21-Dec-2020 07:04
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You are truly a master in stock trading. You have summarised in a short but powerful narrative of how the rags-to-riches-and-back again games are played in the global stock market ! Thumbs up !
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wavehunter
Supreme |
21-Dec-2020 00:27
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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I would have readily agreed with you that there is no need to cut and any price weakness is an opportunity to add more positions if we are talkng about the banks or the better REITs like Ascendas, Mapletree Logistic Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust or Keppel DC REIT or other STI component stocks like ST Engrg or Capitaland or CityDev. But we are not talking about these. And since you have been in this business for more than 20 years, you immediately know what I mean and where I am coming from. These stocks which I mentioned, they are the darlings of funds, institutions and high net worth retail investors whom I collectively for short refer to in this thread as Tua Phows. Any stock you can find in our STI, so long as it is an idol of Tua Phows, any price weakness which comes about usually only during a crisis or a market correction, is a buying opportunity. Personally, I cant say the same for Riverstone Holdings. This stock is not in the same league as the darlings of Tua Phows. Let' s take a little walk back in time on Memory Lane to the period from Jan 2020 to Apr 2020 and ask ourselves where were COVID stocks (of which Riverstone is one) ? What were COVID stocks to the investing world then ? They were nothing. Virtually unheard of !!! COVID-19 brought these stocks to life and into the limelight. Just look at the chart below of Riverstone and read it from left to right like a story book to find out what she was before the monkey brought her into the limelight, what she did when she was in the limelight, and what happened to her after that when the monkey left the party. .  . That this pandemic has caused demand for medical gloves to pierce thru the roof and hence profits for COVID companies have blasted to the Moon to reach super-growth levels... that one the whole world already knows. As market is forward-looking, COVID companies seeing super-growth profit levels for this year and next year or even the next 2 years was being priced into the stock prices of COVID stocks during that spectacular rally from May to August 2020. And having already taken into account those super-growth profits for this year and the next 2 years, the price of Riverstone reached its peak in August. After that the monkey ran road. He already made his money. He came for only one purpose - to use expectations of those super-growth profits to drive the stock price up knowing that retail players will chase the price driven by greed and buy the stock from him at those astronomical prices which ran way ahead of the company' s fundamentals. And his trick worked. People did chase the stock to buy from him. The monkey made his hundreds of millions. Possibly a billion too. Then still hang around for what ? When it was time to go, he quietly left leaving retail players to fight it out amongst themselves. Without a monkey doing the buying and when the only people doing the buying were retail players, what happened to the price ? Just have to look at the chart for the answer. The stock fell from $2.00 to its Last Low at $1.06. And if the monkey dont come back...if the only ones doing the buying continues to be only retail buyers for the rest of this month and Jan 2021, what good can that do for the price ? I dunno about the rest of you but I am not optimistic any good can come out of this if the monkey still doesn' t come back. So everything, it seems, hinges on whether the monkey comes back. For that, all we need to do is to credit the monkey with at least the same amount of wisdom we ourselves have. Let' s say you are a monkey with lots of money to play this game of Pump & Dump and you are looking for a stock to play, will you choose Riverstone ? When you look at the chart, you will immediately know that only recently a monkey came to do his Pump & Dump and has since left leaving a huge trail of retail players stuck at various levels and all reeling in pain and waiting and hoping for a lifeline to get out. So as a monkey looking for a stock to do a Pump & Dump, you know very well that if you do it at Riverstone, you are going to run into layers after layers of stiff resistance becoz tons of people are still trapped and hoping for a monkey to save them. It is going to be very difficult for you to push the price up when there are so many layers of resistance compared to a stock which has not been Pumped & Dumped yet and does not have that heavy overhang of stuckists. Besides, when you, as a monkey push the price up, for your plan to work, you need retail players driven by greed to chase the price to buy from you. But if you do this Pump & Dump at Riverstone now, you wont be getting retail players to buy from you. Instead, when you do the Pump, tons of stuckists will be selling to you, not buying from you. So just ask yourself if you are a monkey looking for a stock to do the Pump & Dump, will you choose Riverstone to do it ? Surely the monkey cannot be more stupid than us, right ? And if no monkey wants to come back to play, how can this stock rise ? Just like you all can see from the chart that before the monkey came in May 2020, this stock wasnt doing anything and wasnt going anywhere. Which is why my message for those who are stuck is dont pin your hope on the monkey to come back. If by some miracle he does come back, then good for you guys. Those of you stuck lower may get a lifeline. Those stuck higher, I dont think so. But what if he doesnt come back. Then what ? Then continue to hold whilst the price continues to slide ? Which is why I suggested having a stop loss. If you have one, when the price is reached, your time is up and your agony comes to an end. Just cut and salvage what' s left of your capital. If you dont have a stop loss, then your stop loss will be when you LOON until you Beh LOON leow...when you cant take the pain and heartache anymore and then you cut. This type of " stop loss" tends to, by nature, be very much larger than if you fix a price yourself. All the best, guys.
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NT1825
Master |
20-Dec-2020 23:17
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First reported in UK. Now spread to EU ......6th wave ?? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/20/scientists-race-ensure-vaccine-works-against-new-variant-confirmed/ Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia all have the new strain, says World Health OrganizationSo right now it' s UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Australia and probably more countries to come when it further mutates.... Things not looking good for 2021. Hopefully, the vaccine is found to still be effective on the virus otherwise all the world economy recovery will be prolonged even more. |
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highlander
Senior |
20-Dec-2020 17:21
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An interesting read on the glove sector in Malaysia : ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tradeview Commentaries - A Time of Reckoning & The Battle of TitansAuthor: tradeview  | Publish date: Mon, 14 Dec 2020, 6:38 PM
Malaysia is a blessed country with abundant of resources, human capital and potential. Before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 / 1998, Malaysia was regarded as a " Tiger Economy" and even Bursa (then known as KLSE) was the third largest stock exchange by value after Tokyo and Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Today, countries which were once behind us have surpassed our country in terms of economic strength, competitiveness and stability. Countries such as China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore are far ahead with Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia catching up. Thankfully, Malaysia still have strong economics fundamentals laid down from our forefathers with SME forming the backbone of the economy. However, with the Covid-19 pandemic onslaught, SME segment was badly impacted with SME association forecasting close to 100,000 to shutter or on the brink of closing down by end 2020. Official figures from SSM shows 30,000. The huge discrepancy is likely due to the delay in official reporting. The stock market has however performed extremely well comparing to regional peers throughout the year. At today' s closing of 1662 points, Bursa is up 4.66% YTD. This is unbelievable considering what is actually being felt in the real economy. I think regulators like BNM, SC, Bursa has done well to support the stock market. Another major reason is because Malaysia is blessed with a competitive Technology and Glove Sector which sustained our stock exchange during the triple whammy of oil price crash, government change and Covid-19 pandemic.
In fact, thanks to glove makers, Bursa, hit record high retail participation and attracted some foreign investments. Of late, due to the announcement of vaccines such as Pfizer, Moderna and its ongoing rollout, the healthcare index took a beating especially the glove and tech sector. The rotation of funds from growth to value stocks and beat down laggards was swift. Banks, Steel, Construction, Telco, Plantation, Tourism, Oil & Gas rebounded strongly while technology and glove stocks was hit The market rally has drawn continuous retail participation, comparable to local funds and more so than foreign funds. This has kept the stock market lively and vibrant with average daily value above RM 4 billion.
This spectacular stock market rally can be seen all over the world, not only Malaysia. However, it is impressive considering our country went through an unprecedented regime change midterm. I believe this would not be possible if not for the strong retail participation and remarkable earnings performance which led to share price ascend of glove makers. If we were to look at the entire stock market of Bursa today, the only sector with strong earnings visibility and sustainability is the glove sector. Nevertheless, the sector has been thrown into the limelight for good and for bad. Praise were given for their contribution to the world supply of gloves in the battle against Covid-19 (65% of market share globally), resolving PPE shortage. Criticism being zoomed in on labour issue, Covid-19 outbreak in workers hostel, welfare and extraordinary windfall in income. I have covered various angles of glove sector in the past 9 months and do not want to repeat further. I have however, a friendly advice to fellow readers who are either in the investment banking research fraternity, media or authorities / politicians, in everything we do in life, be fair, reasonable and objective. Do not make judgments, comments or opinions with a coloured lens. The glove sector of Malaysia is one which should be proud of. I know these days any articles or news on glove sector attracts huge number of views. I know it because I can see the statistics in my blog & channel. Do not for the sake of attention and populist agenda destroy an entire sector that was organically grown through entrepreneurial spirit, hard work and grit. This sector is a golden goose of our country. We must preserve, protect and help improve it.
Today, Tun Dr M and Tengku Razaleigh join hands during a press conference to share their advice input on the state on the nation including potential hint on tomorrow' s Budget 3rd & final reading where a vote will be required of all 222 MP. This has led to last minute selldown of the market close to 1.3%. I believe the stock market will continue to be impacted and profit taking will continue across the board until a political resolution is in place or the budget 2021 is passed without hiccups. For investors, be prudent, hold sufficient cash and do not chase blindly. Avoid loss making stocks, whatever recovery theme it may be & focus on earnings or yield as your north star in these foggy times ahead. If you do that, I believe the worst will pass and eventually, you will see the light again.
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Alson18
Senior |
20-Dec-2020 15:27
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Thank you for this comment...I cant agree more
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alpine
Senior |
20-Dec-2020 15:00
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Through my more than 20 years in the Stock Mkt, I have always viewed trading and investing are two different matters. Trading contra or short term from the long side, it is imperative to trade with stop lossess and the direction of the short term is being dictated by short term technicals or unsuspecting news occurrence. For medium to long term, these seasoned investors look at the fundamentals of the company moving forward and thier portfolios are open for review every quarter to assess whether there is possibility of fundamental shift on companies' earnings or what ever reason that warrant the investor to adjust his portfolio accordingly. A winning company can always withstand short term drawdowns for whatever negative news that surface from time to time as no mkt is linear. After the short term drawdown and consolidation is over, the long term strong earnings of the company will reassert itself. Lately we have seen all gloves counters affected by vaccine roll out. But medium to longtermers are not perturbed by such drawdowns as they believe in the strong earnings of the company rooted on solid grounds moving forward from shortage of gloves resulting in increased gloves ASP for the next few quarters. Therefore to date, I have observed many of these medium to long termers accumulating into each Riverstone drop as they are invested for full year 2020 dividend yield payout and potential price appreciation moving foward for at least a 12 months time frame into 2021. | ||||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 14:07
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9067979/amp/Tennessee-nurse-faints-live-air-minutes-getting-Pfizers-COVID-19-vaccine.html
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alpine
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20-Dec-2020 13:32
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It?s evident that the market is constantly changing ? especially with the COVID vaccine being approved. Still, there is so much market uncertainty and many unknowns surrounding the pandemic and potential vaccines. Instead of getting caught up in the short-term volatility, I suggest focusing on the medium to long-term outlook. This means focusing on hard data to help guide your investments for what?s ahead. | ||||
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zandlery
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 13:20
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It make sense but there are no way to please everyone. If the reverse enter suddenly, some might even make sarcastic remark to u in making people"miss the boat"...... 😅
Stock market can be unpredictable becos I strongly believe they are control by the BB especially SGX because overall share price are cheap. Very short term might predictable but everything beyond if u not one of the BB basically anything can surprise u. Just like when pandemic 1st hit, I believe many season investor gives warning but who expect end up Dow hit record high with Nasdaq.... 😅
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 12:51
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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I suppose what Bro Skyhann and I have in common is when we see danger, we want to warn...alert...draw attention to the danger. And leave it at that. Let those who have ears and want to listen, listen. And act. Let those who want to criticise, say their piece. We learn to agree to disagree. And move on. And if my posting can help even just one person to avoid a bigger loss or to improve his or her game, it is worth.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 12:23
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Dont buy when the stock has reached a certain price. Buy when the stock has turned whatever that price is. Those who bought on the way down at 1.50... 1.40...1.30...1.20 can relate to what I said and tell you its true dont buy when the stock has reached a certain price but when it has turned. Becoz if the price is still falling, why buy it ? I received a PM after my posting here yesterday. This bro or sis shared with me he or she went thru exactly what I said in my posting yesterday. I believe this bro or sis now sees the merit of having a stop loss and will incorporate it into his or her investment strategy. More so if you are investing in a stock which is clearly on a downtrend.
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fatpanda
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 12:16
Yells: "Another wonderful day!" |
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Panda saw this video in YouTube.... Not sure is it a fake " news" or not? So, DYODD. (2) Nurse receives covid vaccine and collapses moments later - YouTube |
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Alson18
Senior |
20-Dec-2020 12:02
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Hope to get some @1.00 n more below $1 | ||||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
20-Dec-2020 11:43
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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There are many ways to invest for long term. In this discussion, both investors are long term. But their methods are different. We go into what each long term investor does and how their results differ using the same amount of capital which is 200k. The first long term investor (LT1) incorporates a stop loss as part of his investment strategy. Let' s say after the usual study and analysis of Riverstone, he thought 1.90 was a good price to buy and so he bought 10 lots. He felt good when the price rose to 2.00. Ofcoz he didnt take profits becoz his assessment was this stock could go higher just like many of you here feel. But the stock reversed and came back down. When the stock went past his 1.90 entry price and reached 1.80, he did what many would have done - hold on first and see how. But when the price continued to drop to 1.70, it triggered his 20 cts stop loss and so he cut and took that loss. Since then, he has stayed sidelined. This stock is still falling. So no reason to jump back in as yet. Let' s for discussion sake assume that this stock found its bottom at 70 cts and then U-Turned. Ofcoz when she turned at 70 cts, this investor wouldnt know the stock has bottomed out. So he waited and observed and watched the price action more closely. When he saw repeated buying in big lots, that, to him was the cue to jump in and so he bought 50 lots. When the price coninued to rise strongly, that gave him the confidence that the U-Turn is real and so he bought another 50 lots at 85 cts. Then when the price continued to power up to 90 cts, he added another 50 lots. At 92 cts, he bought another 50 lots and at 93 cts he bought another 26 lots. Once you can see that upward momentum is on your side, it will give you the confidence to buy more and more quickly without waiting for the price to reach another 5 bids away. Remember this investor took a loss of $2000 when his stop loss was triggered. Hence he has $198k remaining to invest. So what he did with his $198k was as follows: 80 cts x 50 = $40000 85 cts x 50 - $42500 90 cts x 50 = $45000 92 cts x 50 = $46000 93 cts x 26 = $24180 Total $197680 divide by 226 lots = 0.8747 per share. If this stock recovers to $1.00, this investor will make $28317. We now look at long term investor 2 (LT2) who does not have a stop loss as part of his investment strategy and who uses an " average down" method. 1st buy - 1.90 ... 10 lots = $19000 2nd buy - 1.80 ...10 lots = $18000 3rd buy - 1.70 ....10 lots = $17000 4th buy - 1.60 ....10 lots = $16000 5th buy - 1.50 ....10 lots = $15000 6th buy - 1.40 ....10 lots = $14000 7th buy - 1.30 ....10 lots = $13000 8th buy - 1.20 ....10 lots = $12000 9th buy - 1.10 ....10 lots = $11000 10th buy - 1.00...10 lots = $10000 11th buy - 90cts..10 lots = $9000 12th buy - 80 cts..10 lots = $8000 13th buy - 70 cts..10 lots = $7000 Stock U-Turned at 70 cts 14th buy - 80 cts...10 lots = $8000 15th buy - 85 cts...10 lots = $8500 16th buy - 90 cts...10 lots = $9000 17th buy - 95 cts.... 5 lots = $4750 Total $199250 divide by 165 lots = $1.2075 per share. If this stock recovers to $1.00, this investor will be sitting on a paper loss of $34237. This stock must recover to $1.21 for LT2 to breakeven. But for LT1, if this stock rises to $1.21, he will be sitting on a profit of $75777. Again, just sharing another perspective of how having a stop loss and waiting for your stock to bottom out and use a Buy-OnThe-Way-Up strategy is far superior to using an Add-On-The-Way-Averaging Down strategy. |
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sklong138
Elite |
19-Dec-2020 23:25
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Thanks. Bro.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
19-Dec-2020 22:54
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Bro sklong138, You need to upload your image to an image hosting site to obtain the URL address of your image. Then paste the URL address to attach the image to your posting. How to paste? See below. .  And this small window will appear.  If your image is already online somewhere, you can right click on the image...then select " Copy Image Address" and paste it as per the steps above. In other words, if your image is already online, it would already have an URL address. Then simply paste it to attach it to your posting. Have fun !!! Here are a few samples of pictures taken from online and pasted here. .   .  |
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sklong138
Elite |
19-Dec-2020 21:39
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Bro. How to post an image file like what you did to show the chart?
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