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sgng123 Supreme	12-Jul-2017 16:24        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No deal is worst outcome, gic don wanna sell cheap and call off the deal. Next day u gonna see titanic style crash, hope all survive. Titanic crash is 30% overnight since it had been speculated 60% over 1 year period.
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FATABA Supreme	12-Jul-2017 16:01        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree that takeover wld be base on the bk value ( in this case a little more complicated due to the investment $$ business portion of GLP) ​ Fortunately or not ....its very clear to the Chinese gp ...so they do kn the true value of GLP. ​ In also this case,,,,,I tend to believe that once the chinese gp got GIC to agree....they wld have cross 50% ( dont forget several bb alrdy have gd % holdings now) ....so the getting minority shareholders might not be the case for them. ​ The question is still on GIC .....at what cost can GIC accept .....so I still think this wld hv to be a premium in order for GIC to justify accepting their offer. ( after which, they wld have cross the 50% easily) Elliot fund is really too small to trouble them. DYODD Andrewtan18      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 12:41) Posted: It is a fallacy to expect a takeover price to be based on a certain premium over the prevailing market price. All takeovers valuation are done based on the true book value of the business with some premium as incentive for the biggest shareholder to want to sell.  No one is going to bid based on a % premium over current market level. If market were to be at $2 and a bidder pays $2.60 do you think GIC will sell. Similarly, should speculators go crazy and drive price up to $3.00, do you think the buyer will bid at $3.90 ? One would expect, in a takeover situation,  for market to do an evaluation of the fair value of the business and for market trade to around that level. Then it is up to the bidding party to place a little premium as incentive to encourage the sale. However, one often find that pure speculation in the market pushes the company share price to a level inclusive of expected premium. This is natural as who does not one to punt on a 20 to 30 % profit based on the expected premium. The important thing to remember is that even if GIC were to accept the offer the buyer will still have to receive acceptance from remaining minority shareholders to achieve the 50% controlling interest under the takeover process and that is when the need to " manipulate" the market a little bit so that existing holders have a slight profit as incentive to accept offer price. This is the period before the offer price is made known publicly. The moment the offer price is known the market would have pushed it to that level for obvious reason.  Do not therefore be swayed by the price behaviour in this critical period. Remember, there is an activist hedge fund, Elliot Management (Paul Singer), who increased their stake last month to   2.5%.  Not sure if they have exited. If not, they are going to give the Chinese a hard time in this acquisition. Paul Singer' s funds have even battled with Warren Buffett in the past.  gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:33) Posted: I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made
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fruitfulness Veteran	12-Jul-2017 15:19        fruitfulness About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "May the Lord God establish the works of my hands!"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I would think the view of Andrewtan18 is more correct. While it may be true the market price may have (a small) influence on the bid, the Chinese consortium has submitted a binding bid on 30 June.  The then market price as of 30 June was about $2.8x.  The influence from the market price, if any, is probably over.  GIC probably has a certain reserve price before it wish to let go. Given the sticky situation currently, the bid from the Chinese consortium is hopefully close to the reserve price for selling, then there can be some negotiations. Should it be too far off, it is not imaginable to have another round of open bidding because of the perceived unfair advantages the Chinese had.  We can only hope the binding bid from the Chinese is close to or exceed what GIC desire! chengwh1      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 13:59) Posted: I believed the buyer would want whatever lower price that the mkt arrives at, not the fundamental, or book, or whatever ' formula-derived' price,.... The seller here is not in a hurry to sell,... the buyer is not in a hurry to buy,...so, this stalemate will take a long time to be broken. Both parties are waiting for ' an agreeable price' . subaru      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 13:02) Posted: It makes very   logical sense that bid price is based on fundamental price, not market price
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chengwh1 Elite	12-Jul-2017 13:59        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I believed the buyer would want whatever lower price that the mkt arrives at, not the fundamental, or book, or whatever ' formula-derived' price,.... The seller here is not in a hurry to sell,... the buyer is not in a hurry to buy,...so, this stalemate will take a long time to be broken. Both parties are waiting for ' an agreeable price' . subaru      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 13:02) Posted: It makes very   logical sense that bid price is based on fundamental price, not market price. Andrewtan18      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 12:41) Posted: It is a fallacy to expect a takeover price to be based on a certain premium over the prevailing market price. All takeovers valuation are done based on the true book value of the business with some premium as incentive for the biggest shareholder to want to sell.  No one is going to bid based on a % premium over current market level. If market were to be at $2 and a bidder pays $2.60 do you think GIC will sell. Similarly, should speculators go crazy and drive price up to $3.00, do you think the buyer will bid at $3.90 ? One would expect, in a takeover situation,  for market to do an evaluation of the fair value of the business and for market trade to around that level. Then it is up to the bidding party to place a little premium as incentive to encourage the sale. However, one often find that pure speculation in the market pushes the company share price to a level inclusive of expected premium. This is natural as who does not one to punt on a 20 to 30 % profit based on the expected premium. The important thing to remember is that even if GIC were to accept the offer the buyer will still have to receive acceptance from remaining minority shareholders to achieve the 50% controlling interest under the takeover process and that is when the need to " manipulate" the market a little bit so that existing holders have a slight profit as incentive to accept offer price. This is the period before the offer price is made known publicly. The moment the offer price is known the market would have pushed it to that level for obvious reason.  Do not therefore be swayed by the price behaviour in this critical period. Remember, there is an activist hedge fund, Elliot Management (Paul Singer), who increased their stake last month to   2.5%.  Not sure if they have exited. If not, they are going to give the Chinese a hard time in this acquisition. Paul Singer' s funds have even battled with Warren Buffett in the past.
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twinpower Member	12-Jul-2017 13:13        twinpower About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Very nice write-up! subaru      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 13:02) Posted: It makes very   logical sense that bid price is based on fundamental price, not market price. Andrewtan18      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 12:41) Posted: It is a fallacy to expect a takeover price to be based on a certain premium over the prevailing market price. All takeovers valuation are done based on the true book value of the business with some premium as incentive for the biggest shareholder to want to sell.  No one is going to bid based on a % premium over current market level. If market were to be at $2 and a bidder pays $2.60 do you think GIC will sell. Similarly, should speculators go crazy and drive price up to $3.00, do you think the buyer will bid at $3.90 ? One would expect, in a takeover situation,  for market to do an evaluation of the fair value of the business and for market trade to around that level. Then it is up to the bidding party to place a little premium as incentive to encourage the sale. However, one often find that pure speculation in the market pushes the company share price to a level inclusive of expected premium. This is natural as who does not one to punt on a 20 to 30 % profit based on the expected premium. The important thing to remember is that even if GIC were to accept the offer the buyer will still have to receive acceptance from remaining minority shareholders to achieve the 50% controlling interest under the takeover process and that is when the need to " manipulate" the market a little bit so that existing holders have a slight profit as incentive to accept offer price. This is the period before the offer price is made known publicly. The moment the offer price is known the market would have pushed it to that level for obvious reason.  Do not therefore be swayed by the price behaviour in this critical period. Remember, there is an activist hedge fund, Elliot Management (Paul Singer), who increased their stake last month to   2.5%.  Not sure if they have exited. If not, they are going to give the Chinese a hard time in this acquisition. Paul Singer' s funds have even battled with Warren Buffett in the past.
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subaru Senior	12-Jul-2017 13:02        subaru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It makes very   logical sense that bid price is based on fundamental price, not market price. Andrewtan18      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 12:41) Posted: It is a fallacy to expect a takeover price to be based on a certain premium over the prevailing market price. All takeovers valuation are done based on the true book value of the business with some premium as incentive for the biggest shareholder to want to sell.  No one is going to bid based on a % premium over current market level. If market were to be at $2 and a bidder pays $2.60 do you think GIC will sell. Similarly, should speculators go crazy and drive price up to $3.00, do you think the buyer will bid at $3.90 ? One would expect, in a takeover situation,  for market to do an evaluation of the fair value of the business and for market trade to around that level. Then it is up to the bidding party to place a little premium as incentive to encourage the sale. However, one often find that pure speculation in the market pushes the company share price to a level inclusive of expected premium. This is natural as who does not one to punt on a 20 to 30 % profit based on the expected premium. The important thing to remember is that even if GIC were to accept the offer the buyer will still have to receive acceptance from remaining minority shareholders to achieve the 50% controlling interest under the takeover process and that is when the need to " manipulate" the market a little bit so that existing holders have a slight profit as incentive to accept offer price. This is the period before the offer price is made known publicly. The moment the offer price is known the market would have pushed it to that level for obvious reason.  Do not therefore be swayed by the price behaviour in this critical period. Remember, there is an activist hedge fund, Elliot Management (Paul Singer), who increased their stake last month to   2.5%.  Not sure if they have exited. If not, they are going to give the Chinese a hard time in this acquisition. Paul Singer' s funds have even battled with Warren Buffett in the past.  gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:33) Posted: I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made
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Andrewtan18 Senior	12-Jul-2017 12:41        Andrewtan18 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is a fallacy to expect a takeover price to be based on a certain premium over the prevailing market price. All takeovers valuation are done based on the true book value of the business with some premium as incentive for the biggest shareholder to want to sell.  No one is going to bid based on a % premium over current market level. If market were to be at $2 and a bidder pays $2.60 do you think GIC will sell. Similarly, should speculators go crazy and drive price up to $3.00, do you think the buyer will bid at $3.90 ? One would expect, in a takeover situation,  for market to do an evaluation of the fair value of the business and for market trade to around that level. Then it is up to the bidding party to place a little premium as incentive to encourage the sale. However, one often find that pure speculation in the market pushes the company share price to a level inclusive of expected premium. This is natural as who does not one to punt on a 20 to 30 % profit based on the expected premium. The important thing to remember is that even if GIC were to accept the offer the buyer will still have to receive acceptance from remaining minority shareholders to achieve the 50% controlling interest under the takeover process and that is when the need to " manipulate" the market a little bit so that existing holders have a slight profit as incentive to accept offer price. This is the period before the offer price is made known publicly. The moment the offer price is known the market would have pushed it to that level for obvious reason.  Do not therefore be swayed by the price behaviour in this critical period. Remember, there is an activist hedge fund, Elliot Management (Paul Singer), who increased their stake last month to   2.5%.  Not sure if they have exited. If not, they are going to give the Chinese a hard time in this acquisition. Paul Singer' s funds have even battled with Warren Buffett in the past.  gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:33) Posted: I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made? FATABA      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:18) Posted: Agreed. Holding tight . 2.75 seem to be the wanted last traded price. ​ ( from this mark we can add our premium for offer ) ​ Again , after this 2nd FT report.....it shows the aim of pushing down the price to collect more shares yesterday. DYODD. Good luck /veste
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gopguppy Veteran	12-Jul-2017 12:07        gopguppy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Warbug...non-binding...and I doubt they will be able to get the information they need from GLP (controlled by Chinese) and Chinese are not likely to give up their veto on their assets...so it is going to be another LONG KOREAN DRAMA battle. Most likely Warbug will give up, if they have not given up by now. HiFive123      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:52) Posted: But there are more than 1 Proposals received..on the 6/30 deadline. gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:50) Posted: If price goes below $2.70, and all hell break loose, that is a good thing. Becos GIC will be compelled to accept the Chinese bid, and it will appear it has made a very good decision. So let the price drop
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HiFive123 Member	12-Jul-2017 11:52        HiFive123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But there are more than 1 Proposals received..on the 6/30 deadline. gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:50) Posted: If price goes below $2.70, and all hell break loose, that is a good thing. Becos GIC will be compelled to accept the Chinese bid, and it will appear it has made a very good decision. So let the price drop. moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:30) Posted: Think once GLP breaks $2.70 all hell will break lose!   Let' s see...........
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gopguppy Veteran	12-Jul-2017 11:50        gopguppy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If price goes below $2.70, and all hell break loose, that is a good thing. Becos GIC will be compelled to accept the Chinese bid, and it will appear it has made a very good decision. So let the price drop. moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:30) Posted: Think once GLP breaks $2.70 all hell will break lose!   Let' s see............ moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted: GLP is coming off again........   just wonder how low can it get?
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newtrade Master	12-Jul-2017 11:35        newtrade About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Break le leh ... it really mind challenging now .... moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:30) Posted: Think once GLP breaks $2.70 all hell will break lose!   Let' s see............ moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted: GLP is coming off again........   just wonder how low can it get?
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moneyspinner Veteran	12-Jul-2017 11:33        moneyspinner About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Overall STI looks bearish.......... moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:30) Posted: Think once GLP breaks $2.70 all hell will break lose!   Let' s see............ moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted: GLP is coming off again........   just wonder how low can it get?
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moneyspinner Veteran	12-Jul-2017 11:30        moneyspinner About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think once GLP breaks $2.70 all hell will break lose!   Let' s see............ moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted: GLP is coming off again........   just wonder how low can it get?   moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:07) Posted: Never be too greedy.   A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.   There are always opportunities in the market!😊
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anonymoustrader Member	12-Jul-2017 11:19        anonymoustrader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	was once vested, holding for more than a year, gave up hope and sold 2 days ago
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FATABA Supreme	12-Jul-2017 11:15        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1. Its a binding bid means they cant change the price. ​ 2. Yes...it was 2.85 range when Warsburg in the game.....at the end the bidder wants to accumulate as much shares as possible ​ Yesterday was a big scoop for them. Today as of now is alrdy aro 20M. ​ So as they bring it to 2.75/2.85 ....range , wld show a good margin for their final offer ( from retail point of view) ​ 3. a 10% to 20% premium wld also be sweet agreement to GLP/GIC to close this charter. ( I hope its more as Ecomm and GLP position is very strong) So ....the daily higher volume do tell the closing to the deal I hope. ​ Happy waiting. lglg666      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:53) Posted: Yeah....your assumption made more sense!! Don't think can pay less if they already had put in a binding offer. But what they are looking at now since the share price has tanked down to present range then their binding offer can look to be the best. GIC will looks bad if they don't accept it....no way out of this deal now. gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:33) Posted: I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made
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moneyspinner Veteran	12-Jul-2017 11:09        moneyspinner About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	GLP is coming off again........   just wonder how low can it get?   moneyspinner      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:07) Posted: Never be too greedy.   A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.   There are always opportunities in the market!😊
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lglg666 Supreme	12-Jul-2017 10:53        lglg666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yeah....your assumption made more sense!! Don't think can pay less if they already had put in a binding offer. But what they are looking at now since the share price has tanked down to present range then their binding offer can look to be the best. GIC will looks bad if they don't accept it....no way out of this deal now. gopguppy      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:33) Posted: I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made? FATABA      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:18) Posted: Agreed. Holding tight . 2.75 seem to be the wanted last traded price. ​ ( from this mark we can add our premium for offer ) ​ Again , after this 2nd FT report.....it shows the aim of pushing down the price to collect more shares yesterday. DYODD. Good luck /veste
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lglg666 Supreme	12-Jul-2017 10:41        lglg666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Could be the price ranges the Chinese BB are looking at....so that they don't over paid for their stakes even with the premium added. Previously at $3 then they had to pay more to make deal sweeter but now with almost no competitor then they don't want to over-paid as long as GIC is happy with the offer ( btw they are the ones holding all the trump cards in GLP at the moment ). HiFive123      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:03) Posted: there are 2 married deals done so far   4000 lot @ 2.750  1300 lot @2.745  Price have been pushed down so that BBs can buy more. This tactic has been seen in the counter for many times. Noticed that the price was also at +/- 2.75 previously when such trading pattern was seen. Clearly something is brewing. TMW1986      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 09:17) Posted: Those vested hold tight and ride on. Get dividends and waited for news in two months time. Should have something. But not sure the price. But i wont be surprise Warnu win the bid ending
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gopguppy Veteran	12-Jul-2017 10:33        gopguppy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am not sure about the 2.75 mark though. When the Chinese put in the binding bid, the share price was about 2.85-2.88 that week. So they wld have made their calculation based on this, I think. Also, at that point in time, Walburg  is still in the picture, and the Chinese would have taken that into consideration. That' s why I think their offer will be above 3.1 at the very least. (1.1X2.85). By the way, can any bidder lower a price after a binding bid is made? FATABA      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:18) Posted: Agreed. Holding tight . 2.75 seem to be the wanted last traded price. ​ ( from this mark we can add our premium for offer ) ​ Again , after this 2nd FT report.....it shows the aim of pushing down the price to collect more shares yesterday. DYODD. Good luck /vested TMW1986      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 09:17) Posted: Those vested hold tight and ride on. Get dividends and waited for news in two months time. Should have something. But not sure the price. But i wont be surprise Warnu win the bid ending
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TMW1986 Master	12-Jul-2017 10:28        TMW1986 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yea. Seem like many people trying to accumulate at 2.75. If 20% premium, offer price is at $3.30. Just hold on tight. I believe within two months will have news. Dont give up when already waited for 6 mths. Lol. FATABA      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:18) Posted: Agreed. Holding tight . 2.75 seem to be the wanted last traded price. ​ ( from this mark we can add our premium for offer ) ​ Again , after this 2nd FT report.....it shows the aim of pushing down the price to collect more shares yesterday. DYODD. Good luck /vested TMW1986      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 09:17) Posted: Those vested hold tight and ride on. Get dividends and waited for news in two months time. Should have something. But not sure the price. But i wont be surprise Warnu win the bid ending
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