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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:3.54    +0.08  Post Reply
The Only Shipbuilding Blue Chip in SGX!
PiRPiR
Master
10-Mar-2024 21:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		T Rowe Price cash in on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding following better than expected FY2023

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore
Sun, Mar 10, 2024 ? 05:05 PM GMT+08 ? 1 min read


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/insider-moves/t-rowe-price-cash-yangzijiang-shipbuilding-following-better-expected-fy2023
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behonest
Senior
10-Mar-2024 20:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Current Price 1.84

By referring to the data I have from SGX, it&rsquo s more towards positive side 👍 🏻

Based on chart is at the uptrend as well. 

However the risk slightly higher at about 10% from 1.65

SL below 1.65


Take note of all these kind of Analysts, if the share price continue to go up, yes they will tend to PROMOTE

If the Share Price goes down, they will KEEP QUIET (or I should say, they will not mention about any follow ups about this counter). 

This is quite common to those Remisier / Analysts nowadays.

Normally they will not mention that they Stop Loss

When it comes to investing or even trading, what you should focus is the potential risk or loss that you are taking if you are buying at certain price.

We don&rsquo t talk about winning. We only focus on protecting the downside.
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emailpeter
Veteran
09-Mar-2024 16:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If my digestion is correct, NP margins increased to 19%, extending the huge disparity to all other peers low single digits. Even that of China CSSC. Sustainable ?
Shipbuilding is all about being water-tight below waterline, and air-tight above it. If you can check if the employees are treated similar to us shareholders.....hahaha.

It might well have prompted his originating partner to donate 10% (LidoPoint), all staff and labour as beneficiaries. That' s worth RMB137m/year if I counted the divs correctly. It does align employees and shareholders to one common goal. If you can elaborate on its margin sustainablitly....thanks.
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emailpeter
Veteran
09-Mar-2024 13:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		@Smallboat, No !!!!. Your great efforts in analysis are not wasted in vain. It changed my perception. Many quiet investors share your views, akin to our like minded shares like banks, riets and GLC's on this SGX. SB has risen to 9.1% of my liquid assets, its high target "almost?" reached, hence it warrants all LT investors to make a deeper assessment.

As a pre-amble, The Conservatives were warranted to lower their assessment. Myriad of reasons. Apart from the usual geo-political CN challenges. Will the shipbuilding cyclical taper off ? Calculated FD based divs. Will Ren hoard its cash for good reason ? Going by his highly tactical moves, he not only frustrated institutions, but his actions resulted in a coin priced neighbour, a changeover to song and dance rojak investors. A >$10b conglomerate (equal to SIA, Capland or STE) with an astute founder need not stoop so low to deal with penny stock investors. A huge lesson learnt, But I feel he will eventually correct that, worthy of proper institutions.

All said, SB is the best in class shipbuilder. By huge mile is an understatement. Going by your projections, its net cash will exceed SGD4b by Dec 2025. Certainly 5b by end 2026. Giving it a world of opportunity to expand SB or vertically. Where his stout divs fell short, MSCI and institutions helped us retailers top it up in price.

The Optimists too have wide elaborations. Again geo-politics of Red sea, Ukraine war, trade barriers, competitor cost & strikes helped. LNG carriers increasing. EU (and Global) emissions mandates will require upgrading (and updating) of fuel oil power to green energy such as methanol, green hydrogen and ammonia, wind-assist ships. This might reverse any down cycle to create another decade of high growth. Their space capacity with unlimited labour and resources, seem to absorb all sharp order upswings. They are also into LNG terminals, again opportunity to be terminals for any above mentioned propellants. There is emissions credit trading, as they not only build them, but also own and charter them.

Let's await more "stingy" analyst updates, and assess them sensibly. I'd rather read those, than the blind faith ones who merely cheer. The institutions certainly have made up their minds. I will too, by even increasing my weightage during corrections, as and when we hear more promising news from you, great contributors and other sources. Cheers and have a great weekend !!!

Smallboat1021      ( Date: 06-Mar-2024 23:50) Posted:

Just to remark my analysis one year ago......2023E profit of RMB4,065mn vs actual result of RMB4,102mnsmiley

Shame on brokers......who just stingily raised their NP estimates to 4.5bn~5.0bn in 2024/25. They just have no idea how to calculate

Given favorable FX/steel price/shipping rate and accelerating delivery, I raise up my NP forecast to RMB 5.5bn in 2024 and RMB  6.5bn in 2025laugh

Let' s check, YZJ will report > 2.5bn NP in 24H1 result   

Smallboat1021      ( Date: 09-Mar-2023 12:05) Posted:

Let&rsquo s focus on fundamentals: YZJSH is on the runway to double its profits in 3 years, beat consensus by 100%
 
Hey guys, I have been lurking in this forum for 2 years. As a big fan of YZJ, feel a little disappointed that, apart from order update, daily trade update and news update, you can seldom find any in-depth analysis/discussion about the company&lsquo s fundamentals in this so-called most professional stock forum in Singapore. Hence, I decide to raise up the analysis on the fundamentals/financials. Hope to 抛 砖 引 玉 and you bright guys not to be shy to share views on fundamentals.
 
I do not want to make clickbait, but I am shocked at how pre-mature the market&rsquo s understanding on YZJSH is. Compared to this forum, the coverage brokers&rsquo research on YZJSH makes me even more disappointed and suspect that they did not do any analysis or do not understand shipbuilding at all.
 
Firstly I will come up with a table show the Bloomberg consensus estimates of 4 shipbuilding companies (YZJ, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Mipo Dockyard) as of today. I do not have too much opposition on the revenue side (despite YZJ&rsquo s 2025E revenue down by 6% weirdly) given the 3+ year orderbook coverage now for tier one shipbuilders (YZJ currently has USD 11b orderbook with annual delivery capacity of 3+bn) and rising trend of newbuilding contract price since 2021. However, the misleading parts is, when other shipbuilders are expected to see a ~10pct margin improvement in the comings 3 years, Singapore analysts only would like to give a stingy flat net margin of 13% to YZJ. Who should I believe in? The sector specialists in China and Korea? Or the formality-driven generalists in Singapore? 
 
Bloomberg consensus as of 2023/03/08
  Unit 2022A/E 2023E 2024E 2025E
YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             24,168
yoy     20% 4% -6%
YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 3,213                 3,440                 3,133
NP Margin   13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.0%
 
CSSC Revenue RMB mn             63,944             80,213             90,901   NA   
yoy     25% 13%  
CSSC Net Profit RMB mn                 1,494                 3,278                 7,173   NA   
NPM   2.3% 4.1% 7.9%  
 
HHI Revenue KRW bn                 9,046             11,338             13,342             16,294
yoy     25% 18% 22%
HHI Net Profit KRW bn                     -352                       234                       584                 1,473
NPM   -3.9% 2.1% 4.4% 9.0%
 
HMD Revenue KRW bn                 3,717                 4,098                 4,521                 4,986
yoy     10% 10% 10%
HMD Net Profit KRW bn                         -45                       133                       268                       369
NPM   -1.2% 3.3% 5.9% 7.4%

So where will YZJ&rsquo s margin really goes to? Here is my rough analysis.
Firstly, on the newbuilding price side, the shipbuilding price increased by 25+% from 2020 to now, and normally 2-3 years from contracting to delivery. That said, YZJ&rsquo s revenue in 2022 mostly reflected the low price orders contracted in 2020, and we can expected the 25+% increase in price to be recognized in revenue in 2025 and later. By tracing back the contracting date of YZJ&rsquo s future deliveries, I estimate YZJ&rsquo s recognized price in 23/24/25 will be 3%/13%/20% higher than 2022. Since YZJ hedged most of the FX exposure, I just ignore the FX impact here (which actually tend to be favorable due to USD appreciation).
 
Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
126.37 133.31 137.80 130.98 122.62 124.88 130.01 129.77 125.60 153.63 161.84


Secondly, the largest part of cost comes to steel, which accounts for ~25% of revenue (~30% of cost). Over the past 12 months, steel price dropped from peak level of 6000+RMB/ton to a normalized 4500-5000 RMB. YZJ has secured most of its steel procurement in 2023 at the price of less than 5000, ~20% lower than the purchase price for 2022. So, only the steel price drop can lead to a 20%*25%=5pct upside in pre-tax margin. Going forward, given the weak demand of China property, there are unlikely to see steel price hike and the company also estimates the price to stabilize at ~5,000. So the margin upsides in 2024/25 of 4-5pct due to steel price can also be expected.
 
China Shipbuilding Steel Plate Price - RMB/ton
  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
FY2020 4,315 4,233 4,172 4,080 4,102 4,233 4,266 4,320 4,306 4,306 4,321 4,764
FY2021 4,922 4,906 5,410 6,033 6,637 6,110 6,093 6,108 6,172 6,338 6,000 5,700
FY2022 5,550 5,610 5,660 5,710 5,680 5,600 5,180 4,810 4,660 4,610 4,540 4,660
FY2023 4,640 4,790                    

Thirdly, the costs of ship equipment and engines account for another ~30% of revenue. The price of such goods changes proportionally with ship price. That said, we can expect 30% * 3%/13%/20% = 1%/4%/6% increase in cost due to equipment and engines in 23/24/25.
Lastly, cables, paints, labors, utilities, and depreciation together account for the remaining ~30% of revenue. The prices for these factors are mostly stable, and we can even expect some scale effect. But to leave the margin of safety, let us just say they keep flat.
Then, to sum up, the net margin upsides in 2023 will be [3%(price)+5%(steel)-1%(equipment)]/[1+3%(price)]*[1-20%(tax)]=5.4pct. Do the same calculation for 2024/25, the net margin upsides vs. 2022 will be 9.0pct/12.0pct.
Above is analysis for shipbuilding margin, but YZJ also have other business like shipping. In 2022, other businesses contributed ~RMB 2.3bn revenue and 0.8bn profits (mainly shipping and some loan business pre-spinoff), the core shipbuilding margin was ~11%. So the &ldquo real&rdquo net margin of core-shipbuilding business for 23/24/25 shall be 16.4%/20%/23%. To be simplify, let us assume other business has the same margin as shipbuilding (actually much higher historically), then the net margin for 23/24/25 should be at least 16.4%/20.0%/23.0%. The 25E estimated margin of 23% is 9.4pct higher than 2022, which is similar to the market expected upsides of YZJ&rsquo s peers.
 
Let&rsquo s see by how much our estimates beat the consensus.
I would take market estimation of revenue for 2023/24 but uplift the 2025E revenue because there is no reason to see a drop in revenue given the fulfilled yard till 2H2026 and rising ship price. Taking my &ldquo real&rdquo estimated margin into calculation, YZJ will generate RMB 4bn/5bn/6bn in 23/24/25, beat consensus by 27%/50%/99%.
I do not think my estimation is inflated, but again shocked at how ridiculous the brokers&rsquo estimates are. Do they even follow the sector?
 
Bloomberg consensus as of 2023/03/08
  Unit 2022A/E 2023E 2024E 2025E
YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             24,168
yoy     20% 4% -6%
YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 3,213                 3,440                 3,133
NP Margin   13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.0%
" Real" estimates
YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             27,040
yoy     20% 4% 5%
YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 4,065                 5,150                 6,219
NP Margin   13.6% 16.4% 20.0% 23.0%
+/- % vs consensus     26.5% 49.7% 98.5%

 
So guys, now you know what a chance you are facing to. The company now has a market cap of SGD 5.2bn, with 2bn net cash + debt investment on hand, and will earn another 3bn in the coming 3 years. That means you can get the most profitable shipbuilder, a cash generating machine for free after 2025. What&rsquo s more, the new order boom is yet to vanish. Containerships only take up 20% value of global vessels, the dominating parts of bulker and tanker orders are still on the way. Given YZJ&rsquo s USD 3bn order win target for 2023, we can expect the yard to be fulfilled till 2027 by this year. And the newbuilding price keep going north, YZJ&rsquo s earnings could still increase on the high base of 2025&hellip &hellip
 
The conquest of the ship is the sea of stars!
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ysh2006
Supreme
09-Mar-2024 10:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is my observation: YZJ usually will follow if SSH sell shares ....not a stupid question lah.. YZJ hardly can cross mayor resisance lah....

aragosta      ( Date: 09-Mar-2024 09:59) Posted:

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ysh2006
Supreme
08-Mar-2024 22:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Than why a SSH sold it 8M shares at $1.76 ? It don't know need money for what ?

aragosta      ( Date: 08-Mar-2024 08:42) Posted:

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Panda8
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08-Mar-2024 07:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Distribution arhhhhh ........Huat arhhhh..........

Winnertakeall      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 21:58) Posted:

 
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has no immediate plans to spend its vast cash pile on expansion, leading analysts to speculate that it may return the money to shareholders.Photo: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

What does Yangzijiang plan to do with its $1.3bn cash pile, analysts ask



China largest privately-owned shipbuilder also bullish on order prospects for 2024
7 March 2024 3:04 GMT  UPDATED    7 March 2024 10:45 GMT


Shareholders in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding could be set for a major payout with the Chinese company sitting on a huge cash pile, according to analysts.

At the end of 2023, the Singapore-listed company had CNY 16.6bn ($2.3bn) in cash, which was up 54% year on year and total borrowings of CNY 5.6bn resulting in a net cash position of nearly CNY 11bn.

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Winnertakeall
Elite
07-Mar-2024 22:18     
 
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 Alert Admin

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd (SGX: BS6)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, or YZJ, reported a sparkling set of earnings for 2023.

The Chinese shipbuilder&rsquo s revenue rose 16.5% year on year to RMB 24.1 billion.

Gross profit leapt 69.2% year on year to RMB 5.4 billion with lower material costs while net profit surged by 57% year on year to RMB 4.1 billion.

YZJ generated a positive free cash flow of RMB 7.2 billion, nearly double the RMB 3.7 billion that was churned out a year ago.

For 2023, the shipbuilder declared a final  dividend  of S$0.065, 30% higher than the S$0.05 paid out in the previous year.

YZJ&rsquo s outstanding order book as of 31 December 2023 came in at US$14.5 billion for 182 vessels.

Demand for clean vessels continues to be a catalyst for the group to snag contracts as industry regulations tighten.

This year, the shipbuilder has seen its order win momentum continue with a contract win for 12 vessels valued at US$1.35 billion, of which six are methanol, dual-fuel 13,000 TEU containerships.

The outlook for the shipbuilding segment is bright because of the ongoing climate-related push by various authorities.

These mandates have prompted ship owners to replace their vessels as they slowly phase out non-compliant legacy vessels.

Global shipyard capacity is also limited, thus constraining supply which could lead to higher prices for YZJ&rsquo s vessels.

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Winnertakeall
Elite
07-Mar-2024 21:58     
 
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 Alert Admin
 
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has no immediate plans to spend its vast cash pile on expansion, leading analysts to speculate that it may return the money to shareholders.Photo: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

What does Yangzijiang plan to do with its $1.3bn cash pile, analysts ask



China largest privately-owned shipbuilder also bullish on order prospects for 2024
7 March 2024 3:04 GMT  UPDATED    7 March 2024 10:45 GMT


Shareholders in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding could be set for a major payout with the Chinese company sitting on a huge cash pile, according to analysts.

At the end of 2023, the Singapore-listed company had CNY 16.6bn ($2.3bn) in cash, which was up 54% year on year and total borrowings of CNY 5.6bn resulting in a net cash position of nearly CNY 11bn.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
07-Mar-2024 19:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		3/4, 1.77-1.81, closed 1.78, 15m, T-day
3/5, 1.77-1.80, closed 1.77, 17m
3/6, 1.76-1.80, closed 1.78, 26m
3/7, 1.78-1.87, closed 1.86, 37m

Fri 3/8, the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Deal of the day if not the week.
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SAVIORFOREVER
Supreme
07-Mar-2024 16:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It's higher than that if you have sold FH above 50 after the split.


Trade with awareness and DYODD

Panda8      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 15:37) Posted:

SB + free FH is already $2.17 ..... 

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Panda8
Veteran
07-Mar-2024 15:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SB + free FH is already $2.17 ..... 
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Panda8
Veteran
07-Mar-2024 15:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		whethter old or new does not matter. As long as BB want to fry it up. This is what we are looking for. 
No point the company make tonnes of money but the price stagnant and no syndicate want to push. 
Huat arhhhhhh 

pkli899      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 14:57) Posted:

I think this contract was signed quite sometime ago.
Already accounted for in the earlier released figure for YTD contracts won.
Only know then caught attention of shipbuilding sector.
More interesting is the pressure from many parties, asking what YZJSB intend to do with the huge net cash pile.
No use in near or medium term? Return to shareholders in the form of special dividend!
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s100125
Elite
07-Mar-2024 15:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		  Japan&rsquo s Lepta Shipping has returned to Yangzijiang Shipbuilding for another pair of kamsarmax bulker newbuildings , so this is another new contract signed.

pkli899      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 14:57) Posted:

I think this contract was signed quite sometime ago.
Already accounted for in the earlier released figure for YTD contracts won.
Only know then caught attention of shipbuilding sector.
More interesting is the pressure from many parties, asking what YZJSB intend to do with the huge net cash pile.
No use in near or medium term? Return to shareholders in the form of special dividend!
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SAVIORFOREVER
Supreme
07-Mar-2024 15:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It's hard to be convincing even if it goes up to 190. It can always come down as ppl take profits.
But I hope the uptrend can rub some onto YZJFH. 🙏

Trade with expectation and DYODD

aragosta      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 09:42) Posted:

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pkli899
Supreme
07-Mar-2024 15:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sorry, typo: " only now" not " only know" .
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pkli899
Supreme
07-Mar-2024 14:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I think this contract was signed quite sometime ago.
Already accounted for in the earlier released figure for YTD contracts won.
Only know then caught attention of shipbuilding sector.
More interesting is the pressure from many parties, asking what YZJSB intend to do with the huge net cash pile.
No use in near or medium term? Return to shareholders in the form of special dividend!
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Winnertakeall
Elite
07-Mar-2024 13:25     
 
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 Alert Admin

Lepta lifts up large orderbook with new kamsarmax bulkers

Joint-venture Japanese company now has 14 kamsarmaxes on order at Yangzijiang co-owned yard
7 March 2024 4:25 GMT    UPDATED    7 March 2024 4:25 GMT 

Japan Lepta Shipping has returned to Yangzijiang Shipbuilding for another pair of kamsarmax bulker newbuildings. 
Lepta, a joint venture between Nissen Kaiun and trading house Mitsui & Co, has struck a newbuilding deal with the Singapore-listed shipyard for two 82,500-dwt bulk carriers.carriers.
 
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Smallboat1021
Member
07-Mar-2024 12:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		On the contrary, profit can be calculated especially for this countersmiley

Revenue are fixed based on given delivery date and contracted price, steel is pre-perchased one year in advance, FX is mostly hedged......Which counter can be better " calculated" than this? Prediction are based on analysis and " calculation" instead of imagination.   

I am confident my " calculation" will be much more accurate than no-brain " prediction" smiley

DYODD and do your homework first to learn the business before making any (seemingly) " rational/neutral/objective(理 中 客 )" statement

Panda8      ( Date: 07-Mar-2024 07:47) Posted:

Profit and turn-over is not by calculation. 
As a sales person, they will provide sales forcase and prediction. No one will know what is going to happen before the order book materialise, they can only predict.
 
 
 

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fuzzyshares
Veteran
07-Mar-2024 09:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		3/1, 1.76-1.80, closed 1.79, 17m, T-day
3/4, 1.77-1.81, closed 1.78, 15m
3/5, 1.77-1.80, closed 1.77, 17m
3/6, 1.76-1.80, closed 1.78, 26m

Today 3/7, the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. After inflection and achieving equilibrium, welcome to the eighties.

fuzzyshares      ( Date: 21-Feb-2024 10:57) Posted:

Because YZJSH trade volumes were not high, the contra trades bought on 2/15 should be cleared before T+4. The contra trades bought on 2/16 even though are due tomorrow, were probably cleared except for the price at or above 1.68. Friday should be an inflection point. Let's see what happens.

fuzzyshares      ( Date: 21-Feb-2024 10:41) Posted:

2/15, 1.62-1.64, closed 1.62, 7m, T-day
2/16, 1.63-1.69, closed 1.68, 18m
2/19, 1.67-1.70, closed 1.69, 12m
2/20, 1.67-1.71, closed 1.69, 17m

Today 2/21 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Till the announcement of results, look at the numbers and judge for yourself.
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