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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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The Only Shipbuilding Blue Chip in SGX!
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s100125
Elite |
14-Mar-2024 12:59
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https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/insider-moves/t-rowe-price-trims-stake-yangzijiang-shipbuilding-record-earnings-and-ahead-us
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s100125
Elite |
14-Mar-2024 12:55
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Shipbuilding: The new battleground in the U.S.-China trade warhttps://financialpost.com/financial-times/shipbuilding-new-battleground-u-s-china-trade-war |
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fuzzyshares
Veteran |
14-Mar-2024 10:48
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3/8, 1.84-1.89, closed 1.84, 33m, T-day
3/11, 1.85-1.90, closed 1.87, 28m 3/12, 1.80-1.88, closed 1.80, 40m 3/13, 1.71-1.82, closed 1.74, 45m Today 3/14, the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Unsettling times. |
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Smallboat1021
Member |
13-Mar-2024 16:35
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Ridiculous......Both the US labor union proposal and market reaction. For the US side, it almost ranked the last in shipbuilding. Apart from China, there is Korea, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, East Europe, Brazil following, even Singapore is more competitive. US worker has no way to find a job to build commercial vessel in US. Banned CN vessels will only link to inflation. Besides, you can not even name a single US ship owner, actually none for YZJ. Mostly EU costomers, its just none of US' s business. For the market reaction, if it really matters, Korean yards and Japanese yards should fly, while they did not. CSSC drop some as well as CSIC, but it was mainly attribute to fund flow - investor take profit and to invest in Chinese TMT/internet/consumer names (Hang Seng Tech Index rose alot these two days) Perfect time to buy the dip.
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s100125
Elite |
13-Mar-2024 16:27
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Ship is sinking, trades with care. | ||||
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survivor
Member |
13-Mar-2024 15:51
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Not that.. now under the radar.. donno what US gg to do now.. they just all out to get china.
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emailpeter
Veteran |
13-Mar-2024 14:28
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Hit a fuzzy storm....lol. We wanted to remain a small boat, but suddenly chatted and sailed into the radar. Huge one too....hahaha..
https://www.ft.com/content/62f902ed-9bb5-4167-84f0-4f1257889a97 https://www.ft.com/content/4e2d5bb7-e4d5-4b98-b1a8-895c0d493b07 Anyone care to predict how this will work out ? Any knee jerks to allow more entry ?
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ysh2006
Supreme |
13-Mar-2024 12:57
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YZJ mostly ship build in China ...no scare :
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survivor
Member |
13-Mar-2024 10:52
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The Edge Singapore | Biden says US to review union petition on China shipbuilding
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-china-trade-war/biden-says-us-review-union-petition-china-shipbuilding |
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emailpeter
Veteran |
12-Mar-2024 17:42
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Thank you for your explanations. By all means we are not encouraging anyone to buy or sell, diversification is key. As you know, many here have been through the Tempest with this stock and its sibling. I' m also devoting some time studying my other stocks. Some CN ones are starting to look interesting to LT. Do update us when you gather fresher insights. Corrected your typo errors. YZJ has SGD20
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s100125
Elite |
12-Mar-2024 17:01
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Good advice, thumb up!👍
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fuzzyshares
Veteran |
12-Mar-2024 16:08
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3/6, 1.76-1.80, closed 1.78, 26m
3/7, 1.78-1.87, closed 1.86, 37m 3/8, 1.84-1.89, closed 1.84, 33m 3/11, 1.85-1.90, closed 1.87, 28m Today 3/12, the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Many good intentions to boost the share by positive remarks but may be counter productive as many do not have the capacity to absorb the cost. Therefore trade with the head and not the heart. |
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Smallboat1021
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12-Mar-2024 12:49
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Hi Mr. Emailpeter, more than happy to continue the interaction. For SBB, I' m not meaning to support the share price, but only from the point of maximize cash return. YZJ has SGD200bn order on hand to deliver until 2028, which will translate into at least SGD50bn net profit under my most conservative estimates. Plus the SGD2bn+ cash on hand, current share price implies that you can get the most profitable shipbuilder in the world almost for free in 2027. Even the share price rise to SGD2.5, which means SGD10bn market cap, if I was the boss, I would still be happy to do SBB, it means buying the shipyard at the cost of SGD3bn (with 7bn cash on hand). Even in the downturn, YZJ will deliver SGD300-400mn net income so the SBB implies a return > 10%, much better than any deposit rate if earned from cash dividend. Berkshire Hathaway never pay dividends because Warren Buffet believe the cash in his hand will generate more return than in the hands of minority shareholders, that' s regarded as being responsible for shareholders. So should YZJ do. As for green energy, I did not put to much attention to bet on. Personally I persue certainty so names like YZJ with massive orders and foreseeable earnings is my piece of cake, while bet on technology does not make me comfortable. From the little I know, methanol and ammonia are leading the competition, but I really have no idea who will be the winner, or maybe none? Maybe both are transission technologies like LNG and the ultimate answer being hydrogen? who knows, I have to say not good at this. The only thing I am sure is that whatever fuel type is favored, YZJ will continue its competitiveness. Shipbuilder is almost all about buy the engine and assemble, so engine makers exposed to the technology risks. Yes, it is fair to say green energy has higher requirement on shipyard, but YZJ is definately above the threshold. Since YZJ has proven its capability in building LNG-as-a-fuel vessels, no matter " methanol/ammonia-as-a-fuel" will only be easier to build, because both methanol and ammonia are more stable than LNG. Moreover, the LNG ones has to get the design license from GTT-the expert of LNG storage system under extreme low temperature and high pressure, while the ammonia/methanol ones dont need, so SB may retain more margin. The struggle-to-breakeven players (Korean big 3 and CSSC) have suffered from the monopoly of GTT in LNG for a long time. So called " 天 下 苦 秦 久 矣 " .
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pkli899
Supreme |
12-Mar-2024 09:58
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Yes certainly, many readers benefited from the exchange between 2 of you. Thank you so much. |
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emailpeter
Veteran |
12-Mar-2024 00:26
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I forgot to add to my last para-Singapore aims to be the largest ammonia bunkering facility in the world, well of any dominant fuel for that matter.
So Ren' s close relationship with SG Govt comes as no surprise, for such a smart astute businessman.
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emailpeter
Veteran |
11-Mar-2024 23:55
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Hi Messr Smallboat, Thanks for your good humour in escalating my somewhat vegetarian insights into something more meaty. Taken me quite some effort digesting such chewable knowledge. Sustainability of margin disparity-Fully can relate to such competitive advantage in operational efficiency. We rest assured this 10-15% advantage is maintained even as they scale to such astounding book orders. I wish to add the sustainability extends to political risk. Ship cargo is a tool of trade, connoting exposure to trade wars. Their private ownership confers them an apolitical stance over any embargo or interference. Certainly below the radar of such air transport builders like Airbus, Boeing and Comac. I hope this continues. Worker culture-As a Chinese, need no further elaboration. Enlightening that the Wang Dong trust extends to both SB, and FH too. Unshackled from any industrial action like their competitors. Capital Deployment-I differ from your thoughts on this. Being a highly listed blue chip co with support of key indexes and top institutions (I emphasise, regardless of race or national denomination). Such BB' s will know how to take care of the share price. In fact and in time, the share price will be pushed up by sheer fundamentals, such that Ren Jr or Snr only need ensure they reciprocate with their " FD" or whatever deemed good rewards. SBB is a very unnecessary adulterant, for weak or over diluted counters. Fleet Fuel future-This is most important aspect. What do you see as their future ? Studies predict blue, followed by green ammonia to over take the emerging methanol fuel by 2050. China is going to be the largest producer of blue ammonia. Certainly multi dimensional challenges, yet opportunities. I also own shares in FMG.AX, a future play on green ammonia. Will SB continue to be best in class as these upgradings take place ? Thanks for the great insights, hoping to benefit other readers here too. |
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Smallboat1021
Member |
11-Mar-2024 14:32
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Thanks for your thoughful reply Mr@emailpeter! Happy to have some " nutritious" conversation with people like you. I' d like to share alittle bit more regarding to your points. For the sustainability, if you are talking about the " 19%" NP margin, I would say of course it' s not sustainable given the nature of this cyclicle sector but it is still in the uptrend and we can not say what exactly is the " cap" of NP margin because newbuilding price is still increasing. Based on my estimate, the latest order in YZJ' s orderbook will deliver a GPM of ~35% and NP ~30% in 27-28, remember this is not the " peak" given more higher price orders are still on the way. Over the long term, I personally believe a GPM of 20% and NPM of 15+% is sustainable because this means YZJ' s state-owned peers (CSSC and South Korean Big 3) struggle around the breankeven level. If you are talking about the sustainability of " margin disparity" over its peers, I will be more confident to say it must be sustainable for YZJ to maintain 10-15ppt advantage in margin over its peers. The advantage is not coming in one day, if you date back, the adavantage arose after 2010 and widened. This is attribute to YZJ' s private-owned nature, which give it the flexibilty to hire more or less worker according to industry cycle, and encourage mgmt. to execute most effectively because the 13% ESOP (3% from old Ren' s donation and 10% from LidoPoint, which is not donation, but originally benefited by YZJ ESOP) to align the interest with shareholders. According to some rumors I learnt, YZJ Mgmt' s annual compensation is composite of 2/3 of shares and dividends, with cash salary a very small portion. This explain why YZJ has such good control of admin expense. As for the workers, are they treated well? My learning is that they have lower unit wage in YZJ, but the total payment is much better than in SOE yards, because per head production is much higher in YZJ. In SOE yards, they have to confirm " common wealth" and hire redundant workers, which means per head compensation is low. For so many hard-working workers in China, they never spare themselves from work, only hope to work more and earn more so YZJ is the best place for them. Finally, let us tap on capital deployment. I was upset about the payout ratio this year at the first time, so as most guys in this forum. While later, I realized that we may be a little bit too strict on YZJ. Put yourself in the persprctive of an international investor who wants to have some position in the blooming shipbuiliding sector, you have no better choice but YZJ, based on whatever criteria including dividend yield. Do you see the " almost bankrupt&ldquo Korean &rdquo big 3&ldquo pay any dividend in the past 5 years and foreseeable years? Do you expected the expensive and highly-leveraged CSSC(with 2024E PE> 30x) to give you a yield > 1%? At least, YZJ keep paying you 30-40% of " sustainable" earnings. Anyway, I also hope YZJ to pay more, but I will still find some excuses and give more time. Like CAPEX in LNG terminal and potential capacity expansion, maintain a good looking asset-to-liability ratio after the spin-off of RMB20bn cash, etc..I have the feeling that Jr. Ren is different with his father and willing to treat shareholders well, the spin-off is a indication, he just need more time. And, more over,if I were Jr. Ren, instead of paying more dividend, I' d like to do share reperchase, since the company is so undervalued and repurchase is the best way to protect the value and increase share stake.
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s100125
Elite |
11-Mar-2024 12:31
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Haha... ya loh!
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Joelton
Supreme |
11-Mar-2024 10:51
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T Rowe Price cash in on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding following better than expected FY2023
T Rowe Price, a long-time substantial shareholder of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, has reduced its stake in the shipbuilder, taking advantage of a recent gain in its share price following FY2023 earnings that beat expectations.
On March 6, the US-based asset manager sold nearly 8.19 million shares for $14.5 million, or $1.772 each.
This reduces its remaining stake in the China-based shipbuilder to 235.64 million shares, or 5.96%, down from 6.17% it held previously.
Yangzijiang shares changed hands at $1.67 just before the earnings announcement on Feb 27 and closed at $1.84 on March 8.
On Feb 27, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding reported earnings of RMB4.1 billion for FY2023, up 57% over the preceding FY2022. Revenue in the same period was up 16.5% to RMB24.1 billion,
It plans to pay a final dividend of 6.5 cents, up from 5 cents per share paid for FY2022.
As at Dec 31, its order book reached US$14.5 billion, including US$7.1 billion won in FY2023.
UOB Kay Hian' s Adrian Loh, following the earnings report, raised his target price from $1.92 to $2.19, while Ho Pei Hwa of DBS Group Research deems the stock worth $2.10, up from $1.90.
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s100125
Elite |
11-Mar-2024 10:10
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Look like road block is happening at 1.87. | ||||
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