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motomoto Member	17-May-2017 00:03        motomoto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Many will not * motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 23:56) Posted: We still do not have the resource estimate. If the project run indefinitely we will expect the same amount of EPS p.a. and multiplying with PE which makes no difference IMO But if we have 13 years mining life, PAT @ $30m * 13 = $390m SP = 0.8 (NPV is too cumbersome since they are only discounting at WACC i.e systematic risks, minimal borrowings (debt) and assuming no forseeable capital issuance (capital). Earnings will still be reported at nominal amount y-o-y in audited report.  Now if we have distributable RE at that amount in 13 years down the road what will happen next ? But again not many will go long for considerable number of years. Therefore I will think EPS estimate should be immediate guide for short term.. IMO... DYOD EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 23:26) Posted: Have u seen the Cannacord analyst report on Tawana? They value using NPV method prob becos mining is an exhausible resource. Their valuation takes into account range of 7-13 years mine life and base case to best case for Lithium px. Just convert the NPV to share px by dividing by no. of shares and currency conversion. I posted the calculation before but it was a long time ago so hard to dig out the post. U take a look should be able to calc. 40 cents is close to Cannacord' s calculation and becos the off-take is close to best case scenario, even 60 cents is possible based on the report. Cheers
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motomoto Member	16-May-2017 23:56        motomoto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	We still do not have the resource estimate. If the project run indefinitely we will expect the same amount of EPS p.a. and multiplying with PE which makes no difference IMO But if we have 13 years mining life, PAT @ $30m * 13 = $390m SP = 0.8 (NPV is too cumbersome since they are only discounting at WACC i.e systematic risks, minimal borrowings (debt) and assuming no forseeable capital issuance (capital). Earnings will still be reported at nominal amount y-o-y in audited report.  Now if we have distributable RE at that amount in 13 years down the road what will happen next ? But again not many will go long for considerable number of years. Therefore I will think EPS estimate should be immediate guide for short term.. IMO... DYOD EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 23:26) Posted: Have u seen the Cannacord analyst report on Tawana? They value using NPV method prob becos mining is an exhausible resource. Their valuation takes into account range of 7-13 years mine life and base case to best case for Lithium px. Just convert the NPV to share px by dividing by no. of shares and currency conversion. I posted the calculation before but it was a long time ago so hard to dig out the post. U take a look should be able to calc. 40 cents is close to Cannacord' s calculation and becos the off-take is close to best case scenario, even 60 cents is possible based on the report. Cheers motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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Atom99 Master	16-May-2017 23:37        Atom99 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "Once you hv eliminated the impossible,whatever remains TRUTH"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You are welcome. I am glad that you find my post add values to you. They are some forummers here create more confusion and post nonsense with their own agenda than clarity on the topic. IMO. However, always DYOR and DYODD. motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 23:02) Posted: Hi Atom, I have been following your posts rather closely. Thanks alot for your valuable input.  Atom99      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:52) Posted: April 21, 2017:    Ziwo Holdings has formed a China JV and Burwill Commodity is acquiring mining rights from Alliance Mineral Assets. https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/singapore-ziwo-holdings-jv_burwill-commodity-alliance-mineral-assets-70843/
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 23:33        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yesterday short-sell volume 930,000 shares - drop 10% Today short-sell volume 510,300 shares - drop 5% Really wonder is it the short-sellers forget to mark their orders otherwise who is selling
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 23:26        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Have u seen the Cannacord analyst report on Tawana? They value using NPV method prob becos mining is an exhausible resource. Their valuation takes into account range of 7-13 years mine life and base case to best case for Lithium px. Just convert the NPV to share px by dividing by no. of shares and currency conversion. I posted the calculation before but it was a long time ago so hard to dig out the post. U take a look should be able to calc. 40 cents is close to Cannacord' s calculation and becos the off-take is close to best case scenario, even 60 cents is possible based on the report. Cheers motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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motomoto Member	16-May-2017 23:02        motomoto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Atom, I have been following your posts rather closely. Thanks alot for your valuable input.  Atom99      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:52) Posted: April 21, 2017:    Ziwo Holdings has formed a China JV and Burwill Commodity is acquiring mining rights from Alliance Mineral Assets. https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/singapore-ziwo-holdings-jv_burwill-commodity-alliance-mineral-assets-70843/ motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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Atom99 Master	16-May-2017 22:52        Atom99 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "Once you hv eliminated the impossible,whatever remains TRUTH"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	April 21, 2017:    Ziwo Holdings has formed a China JV and Burwill Commodity is acquiring mining rights from Alliance Mineral Assets. https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/singapore-ziwo-holdings-jv_burwill-commodity-alliance-mineral-assets-70843/ motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 22:51        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	eps - earnings per share pe - price earnings ratio u can google for more info   c3_jail      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:46) Posted: Hi , may i know what eps and pe meaning ah? motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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c3_jail Senior	16-May-2017 22:46        c3_jail About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi , may i know what eps and pe meaning ah? motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 22:41) Posted: With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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motomoto Member	16-May-2017 22:41        motomoto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	With estimated PBT unchanged,  PAT at 30% = US$ 22.05m i.e S$ 31m EPS S$    0.065  PE 6.11 SP = at least $ 0.40 But hey this would not matter if the bleeding still wont stop....
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motomoto Member	16-May-2017 22:37        motomoto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1) Based on (h) below, we expect mining expenditure to be expensed instead and therefore impacting bottom line. Development expenditure should also increase due to commissioning activities during the year however they may be offsetted based on farm in agreement and TAW will also share this cost.  - Addition during the year - A$ 3m  50:50 going forward subsequent to farm in A$ 1.5m assuming at current rate.  - Capex of  A$ 55m (this is capitalised but depreciated based on useful lives estimated at 20 years?? at A$2.5m depreciaition p.a )  A$ 1.5m + A$ 2.5m = A$ 4.0m (more than enough to be offsetted with earnings from tantalum + farm in + prepayment )  (h) Mine Development Expenditure From the date that the commercial viability of extracting a mineral resource is demonstrable expenditure on that area of interest is capitalised as development expenditure. At the same time an appropriate portion of the carrying amount of exploration and evaluation is reclassified to development expenditure. Development expenditure ceases to be capitalised once a commercial level of production is achieved and the asset is amortised over the assessed useful life from that date http://www.alliancemineralassets.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/AMAL-and-Tawana-Joint-Announcement-Strong-Lithium-Tantalum-Results-Updates-for-Apr-17-from-Extensional-Drillings-Continued-at-Bald-Hill.pdf The commercial terms require Tawana: i. to spend, by 31 December 2017 (or such later date as may be agreed between the parties), a minimum of $7.5 million on exploration, evaluation and feasibility (&ldquo Expenditure Commitment&rdquo ) and ii. to spend, $12.5 million in capital expenditure required for upgrading and converting the plant for processing ore derived from the Project, infrastructure costs, pre-stripping activities and other expenditures including operating costs (&ldquo Capital Expenditure&rdquo ) by 31 December 2019.  Upon completion of the Expenditure Commitment and Capital Expenditure, Tawana will be entitled to a 50% interest in the Project (being all minerals from the tenements and the processing plant and infrastructure at Bald Hill). The portfolio of mineral tenements, comprising mining leases, exploration licences, prospecting licences, miscellaneous licences, a general-purpose lease, and a retention lease are in good standing.   2- a)  Largest expenses - borrowing costs at A$  787,625. This will be reduced considerably since  prior period non current interest bearing loans and borrowings at A$ 34,507 which is now current.    So we transfer this savings to salaries and bonuses for directors at > A$ 600,000 based on the following:  An aggregate of A$300,000 and 2.5% of PBT for the amount in excess of A$15 million 2- b)  Implied increase based on my previous estimate at US$ 1,5m, equivalent to A$ 2.0m (which is conservative)   P/L  Other income 134,560 Gain on foreign exchange 110,859 Loss on disposal of assets (15,417) Accounting and audit expenses (146,407) Consulting and directors&rsquo fees (343,999) Tenement expenses (175,882) Administrative expenses (680,952) Employee salaries and other benefits expenses (489,025) Borrowing costs (787,625)   sheerluck      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:49) Posted: You might want to include the mine developement which might be capitalised, SGA might increase if the business is very profitable mgmt might give temselves a decent pay rise and also use Australia tax rate.   How does the figure turn out with these? motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 19:26) Posted: Thanks for reply. Trust all in order. My take on basic FA. Sorry if they off in alignment. Hope that helps.  Case 1:  At selling price of US$ 880/t - costs AUD 500/t i.e US$ 375 = Margin of US$ 505/t  Assuming production at 140,000 therefore total sales margin = US$ 70m  Less:  50% JV = US$ 35m  SGA - 10% of US$ 35m = US$ 3.5m (2016: US$ 1.95m i.e A$ 2.6m) [page 5] http://repository.shareinvestor.com/rpt_view.pl/id/625934.1/type/sgxnet/original_filename/1 Development / capital costs offsetted with tantalum revenue (at 300,000 - US$ 60 /t x 50% JV) + prepayment + farm in. [Does not matter anyway since this is capitalised and not expensed in P/L] --> Firm capital cost estimates remain subject to completion of the feasibility study, but it is understood that initial Phase 1 capex will be A$30-40m, including plant construction, site costs and initial mining. It is anticipated that total capital requirements (including working capital to first cashflow) will be in the order of ~A$55m i.e US$ 41m.  " At recent pricing, the in-ground combined values of the lithium and tantalum mineralisation is significant, and tantalum by-product credits have the potential to cover a large share of mining costs.&rdquo PBT = US$ 31.5m  PAT at 17% = US$ 26m i.e S$ 36m  EPS = S$ 36m / 480m = S$ 0.075 PE = 6 SP = S$ 0.45 PE - GXY - 6.11 http://quotes.wsj.com/AU/XASX/GXY
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jazzzkk Senior	16-May-2017 21:45        jazzzkk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You are right. One profit is realized while the other one still unknown timothylim890      ( Date: 16-May-2017 19:11) Posted: Delong and AEM have actual revenue, so cannot compare this way. Right now for AMAL, until their DFS and JORC report are out, and until they have the infrastructure necessary to get the lithium out of the ground (how much in the ground and how much can actually be mined and sold per annum determined by JORC and DFS respectively), until (almost) all the blanks are filled, I would say that AMAL' s fundamentals are not strong, but have the POTENTIAL to be strong. If you want to make an apple-to-apple comparison with Delong and AEM, you have to wait until 1Q2018 when revenue from spodumene sales crosses the sea from Hong Kong and are actually in the bag. And of course on the macro-scale, EV demand is rising globally and with it, lithium demand. c3_jail      ( Date: 16-May-2017 19:01) Posted: Sometime confusing ah. Like delong or aem seems their fundamental not so strong start 30-40 cents can become 2 dollar. Then for this AMAL fundamental quiet strong but keep dropping. I become confuse hah
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 20:51        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tats why, I got a shock when I saw it. Dunno why such an old n inappropriate post is selected for quote. LacOperon      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:46) Posted: First hit in google summore... I think quite damaging to AMAL. Think the CEO should sue people like him hehe EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:40) Posted: Nonsense nevermind, the s**m word cannot be used
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sheerluck Supreme	16-May-2017 20:49        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You might want to include the mine developement which might be capitalised, SGA might increase if the business is very profitable mgmt might give temselves a decent pay rise and also use Australia tax rate.   How does the figure turn out with these? motomoto      ( Date: 16-May-2017 19:26) Posted: Thanks for reply. Trust all in order. My take on basic FA. Sorry if they off in alignment. Hope that helps.  Case 1:  At selling price of US$ 880/t - costs AUD 500/t i.e US$ 375 = Margin of US$ 505/t  Assuming production at 140,000 therefore total sales margin = US$ 70m  Less:  50% JV = US$ 35m  SGA - 10% of US$ 35m = US$ 3.5m (2016: US$ 1.95m i.e A$ 2.6m) [page 5] http://repository.shareinvestor.com/rpt_view.pl/id/625934.1/type/sgxnet/original_filename/1 Development / capital costs offsetted with tantalum revenue (at 300,000 - US$ 60 /t x 50% JV) + prepayment + farm in. [Does not matter anyway since this is capitalised and not expensed in P/L] --> Firm capital cost estimates remain subject to completion of the feasibility study, but it is understood that initial Phase 1 capex will be A$30-40m, including plant construction, site costs and initial mining. It is anticipated that total capital requirements (including working capital to first cashflow) will be in the order of ~A$55m i.e US$ 41m.  " At recent pricing, the in-ground combined values of the lithium and tantalum mineralisation is significant, and tantalum by-product credits have the potential to cover a large share of mining costs.&rdquo PBT = US$ 31.5m  PAT at 17% = US$ 26m i.e S$ 36m  EPS = S$ 36m / 480m = S$ 0.075 PE = 6 SP = S$ 0.45 PE - GXY - 6.11 http://quotes.wsj.com/AU/XASX/GXY
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LacOperon Member	16-May-2017 20:46        LacOperon About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	First hit in google summore... I think quite damaging to AMAL. Think the CEO should sue people like him hehe EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:40) Posted: Nonsense nevermind, the s**m word cannot be used. askthebear      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:38) Posted: He is one of the nonsense. Look at his post at nobl
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 20:40        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Nonsense nevermind, the s**m word cannot be used. askthebear      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:38) Posted: He is one of the nonsense. Look at his post at noble EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:21) Posted: Alamak do u know if u google alliance mineral now it shows share junction w a quote from tat bloody alishan with the s**m word. Can someone alert admin, I am outside. Better ask to remove the post. Thanks!!
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askthebear Master	16-May-2017 20:38        askthebear About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	He is one of the nonsense. Look at his post at noble EmmGru      ( Date: 16-May-2017 20:21) Posted: Alamak do u know if u google alliance mineral now it shows share junction w a quote from tat bloody alishan with the s**m word. Can someone alert admin, I am outside. Better ask to remove the post. Thanks!!
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EmmGru Veteran	16-May-2017 20:21        EmmGru About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Alamak do u know if u google alliance mineral now it shows share junction w a quote from tat bloody alishan with the s**m word. Can someone alert admin, I am outside. Better ask to remove the post. Thanks!!
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Stocky901 Supreme	16-May-2017 20:16        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	From 40c dropped so much to 27.5c & still dropping. Anyone know why?
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askthebear Master	16-May-2017 20:03        askthebear About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How holding close to 200 lots. https://www.metalary.com/lithium-price/. This is the link look at the growth of lithium. Alliance purpose only go for 5 year deal as they know the future price sure escalate.
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