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GoldFocus Member	25-Jun-2019 09:13        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Scoop it up while you can, if you want an alternative investment to physical/paper gold and ETF. Work the numbers yourselves in various scenarios if you don&rsquo t believe me :) the boat hasn&rsquo t sailed yet, but boarding fast!
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jusforshare Member	25-Jun-2019 09:07        jusforshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Gold probably start a new phase of bull run....
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GoldFocus Member	25-Jun-2019 06:43        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Haha you make it sound like I haven&rsquo t done my due diligence. I have already explained why CNMC deserves a share price of double its current price, even with the current &lsquo poor quality ore&rsquo . I reiterate that it&rsquo s current situation is way more optimistic then in 2015/2016 when it&rsquo s share price last peaked. I already know the unfavorable state of the other 2 miners, that gives CNMC even more advantage as the solely profitable listed miner in Singapore.  Jump on the boat before this one leaves the dock )
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destinykraze Elite	25-Jun-2019 00:28        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Ultimately still comes down to quality earnings, which is still dependant on ore quality. If you do some due dilligence, u can see most sgx listing gold mining company are making a loss.bigger operations doesnt amount to much if they dont hit a area where there are high quality ores. If the eps sucks, it is not going to go very far. GoldFocus      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 19:28) Posted: 2015 Production: 31,206 Oz x 600usd/oz profit = USD18,723,600 (SGD 25,464,096). EPS = SGD 0.0624.  2016 Production: 27,404 Oz x 600usd/oz profit = USD16,443,400 (SGD 22,361,664). EPS = SGD 0.0548 At it&rsquo s peak share price in 2015/2016, assuming around 60 cents, it translates to PE of 10 In 2019, Q1 production is at 8000oz. Assuming qoq production increases as it traditionally would, let&rsquo s conservatively assume Q2 (9000Oz), Q3 (10,000Oz), Q4(11,000Oz), total production for 2019 = 38,000Oz. Assume gold price averaged at USD1,350 and all-in-costs doesn&rsquo t decrease, and stays fixed at USD923, profit will be USD427/oz. Profit for 2019 = 38,000 Oz x USD427 = USD16,226,000 (SGD 22,067,360). EPS = SGD0.0541. At current share price of SGD0.265, PE is only 4.90 Positive Factors in 2019 as compared to the situation back in 2016 1. Increasing gold price (fed cut rates, brexit, trade was, US-Iran tensions) 2. Traditionally, all in production costs should decline 3. New CIL plant to increase production 4. Mining license to year 2034 (15 years, as compared to in 2015 when it was not sure if it could renew its license) 5. Further acquisition of new mines/license 6. Additional income from other metals (zinc, lead etc) Its not uncommon for global miners to have PE tagged to the lifespan of the mines they own (eg. how many years it will take for them to finish mining their ores at current production rates). Even if CNMC continues to mine only 38,000Oz of gold per year, after 15 years (end of license), it would have mined only 570,000Oz of gold. It will have 344,000 Oz of gold left, assuming no new gold is found. That means logically speaking, a PE of 15 sounds fair, if compared to global peers. But let&rsquo s be conservative and give it a PE of 10. That means the share price can easily reach $0.53. These are just my humble estimates and calculations. Please don&rsquo t flame me, there maybe mistakes in my calculations and assumptions. I&rsquo m just a retail investor. Please feel free to post new calculations or correct me.
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luckyfa Elite	24-Jun-2019 22:45        luckyfa About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Gold price shooting up....let see how this goes from here.?..
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GoldFocus Member	24-Jun-2019 19:28        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2015 Production: 31,206 Oz x 600usd/oz profit = USD18,723,600 (SGD 25,464,096). EPS = SGD 0.0624.  2016 Production: 27,404 Oz x 600usd/oz profit = USD16,443,400 (SGD 22,361,664). EPS = SGD 0.0548 At it&rsquo s peak share price in 2015/2016, assuming around 60 cents, it translates to PE of 10 In 2019, Q1 production is at 8000oz. Assuming qoq production increases as it traditionally would, let&rsquo s conservatively assume Q2 (9000Oz), Q3 (10,000Oz), Q4(11,000Oz), total production for 2019 = 38,000Oz. Assume gold price averaged at USD1,350 and all-in-costs doesn&rsquo t decrease, and stays fixed at USD923, profit will be USD427/oz. Profit for 2019 = 38,000 Oz x USD427 = USD16,226,000 (SGD 22,067,360). EPS = SGD0.0541. At current share price of SGD0.265, PE is only 4.90 Positive Factors in 2019 as compared to the situation back in 2016 1. Increasing gold price (fed cut rates, brexit, trade was, US-Iran tensions) 2. Traditionally, all in production costs should decline 3. New CIL plant to increase production 4. Mining license to year 2034 (15 years, as compared to in 2015 when it was not sure if it could renew its license) 5. Further acquisition of new mines/license 6. Additional income from other metals (zinc, lead etc) Its not uncommon for global miners to have PE tagged to the lifespan of the mines they own (eg. how many years it will take for them to finish mining their ores at current production rates). Even if CNMC continues to mine only 38,000Oz of gold per year, after 15 years (end of license), it would have mined only 570,000Oz of gold. It will have 344,000 Oz of gold left, assuming no new gold is found. That means logically speaking, a PE of 15 sounds fair, if compared to global peers. But let&rsquo s be conservative and give it a PE of 10. That means the share price can easily reach $0.53. These are just my humble estimates and calculations. Please don&rsquo t flame me, there maybe mistakes in my calculations and assumptions. I&rsquo m just a retail investor. Please feel free to post new calculations or correct me.
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luckyfa Elite	24-Jun-2019 17:00        luckyfa About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Trading looks really positive.....suspect Major buying coming in.....
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GoldFocus Member	24-Jun-2019 09:01        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I&rsquo m using &lsquo IF&rsquo , but i should replace it with &lsquo When&rsquo . Compare the amount of growth it has achieved since 2016. And also new revenue that will come in from the sales of other metals. This stock is definitely worth more than $0.255. Conservative estimates put its forward PE at only 5, for this year. I&rsquo ll show the math later when I have time. ) destinykraze      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 08:34) Posted: Yes. The keyword u have used again and again. " IF" GoldFocus      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 07:21) Posted: High quality ores simply mean more gold can be retrieved from one pour. If CNMC is able to increase its ore-processing capacity, it will be able to produce more gold even with lower quality ores. What matters more is the total proven gold reserves that is standing at 914,000 Oz now, which is way more than what was proven in 2016. Its more important that CNMC mine as much of the 914,000 Oz of gold as it can thereby increasing its EPS, rather than justifying an increase in its stock price attributable only to profit margin per Oz of gold. If it has the capacity to produce 100,000Oz of gold per year even with lower quality ores and thinner profit margin, don&rsquo t you think EPS will still skyrocket and justify a share price increase? :)
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destinykraze Elite	24-Jun-2019 08:38        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	No doubts that it' s profit will increase gradually. But not hitting any high yielding ores means expenses will take up a chunk of it' s profit. Mining operations have high overheads.
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destinykraze Elite	24-Jun-2019 08:34        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes. The keyword u have used again and again. " IF" GoldFocus      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 07:21) Posted: High quality ores simply mean more gold can be retrieved from one pour. If CNMC is able to increase its ore-processing capacity, it will be able to produce more gold even with lower quality ores. What matters more is the total proven gold reserves that is standing at 914,000 Oz now, which is way more than what was proven in 2016. Its more important that CNMC mine as much of the 914,000 Oz of gold as it can thereby increasing its EPS, rather than justifying an increase in its stock price attributable only to profit margin per Oz of gold. If it has the capacity to produce 100,000Oz of gold per year even with lower quality ores and thinner profit margin, don&rsquo t you think EPS will still skyrocket and justify a share price increase? :)
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GoldFocus Member	24-Jun-2019 07:21        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	High quality ores simply mean more gold can be retrieved from one pour. If CNMC is able to increase its ore-processing capacity, it will be able to produce more gold even with lower quality ores. What matters more is the total proven gold reserves that is standing at 914,000 Oz now, which is way more than what was proven in 2016. Its more important that CNMC mine as much of the 914,000 Oz of gold as it can thereby increasing its EPS, rather than justifying an increase in its stock price attributable only to profit margin per Oz of gold. If it has the capacity to produce 100,000Oz of gold per year even with lower quality ores and thinner profit margin, don&rsquo t you think EPS will still skyrocket and justify a share price increase? :)
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GoldFocus Member	24-Jun-2019 07:14        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I have been following this stock and researching it since 2015. The environment that CNMC is in right now is definitely more favorable than back in 2016. Yes it had a fatter profit margin in 2016, but lower production capacity, lower quality ores, expiring mining license, and only Sokor mine. All these have changed now. Plans to build yet another CIL plant will allow it to increase its production even more. Hitting 40,000oz of gold production per year is definitely achievable, significantly increasing its EPS even without a profit margin as fat as in 2016 yet. AISC will naturally continue to go down, and if gold price continues its way up, we will see an increasingly fat profit margin. To put it simply: 2015 Gold Production: 31,206 Oz 2016 Gold Production: 27,404 Oz Profit margin was around USD600/Oz until end of 2016 before it narrowed significantly due to rising AISC 2019 Gold Production: 1st quarter already produced 8,023Oz, and it&rsquo s traditionally the quarter with the lowest production volume. It&rsquo s expected that the production for the rest of each quarter this year be higher than 8,023Oz. I would say 35,000Oz of gold produced this year would be a conservative estimate. Profit margin now at 470USD/Oz. Work out the numbers with varying prices/production volume. You&rsquo ll see why this stock is well set up for a comeback. destinykraze      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 00:02) Posted: Im speaking from experience of how the company has been progressing so far. Back when gold was 1.1k it was standing at 16 cents. it went to 60 cents when tension was high and gold price surged and mostly importantly, it' s profit margin was also sky high due to high yield of high quality ores. It' s coverage was then later dropped by dbs due to unstable earnings, it' s profits plunged to a unbelievable level, and the reason given was low quality ores and gold prices due this time was still high. You need to understand the business operation in order to make an accurate prediction.  GoldFocus      ( Date: 23-Jun-2019 11:28) Posted: Profit margin is not as important as EPS right now for a gold miner. The following all favor an increase in EPS (and hence share price) for CNMC right now, moving forward  1. Increasing gold production 2. Increase gold price 3. Decreasing AISC  It has 914000 Oz of gold to mine with its 15 years license. It just needs to mine the shit out of those ores and it&rsquo s EPS will go up. Look at graphs published on Cnmc&rsquo s website. Diverging gold price chart and AISC. It&rsquo s set to look like when CNMC peaked in 2016.
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destinykraze Elite	24-Jun-2019 00:02        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Im speaking from experience of how the company has been progressing so far. Back when gold was 1.1k it was standing at 16 cents. it went to 60 cents when tension was high and gold price surged and mostly importantly, it' s profit margin was also sky high due to high yield of high quality ores. It' s coverage was then later dropped by dbs due to unstable earnings, it' s profits plunged to a unbelievable level, and the reason given was low quality ores and gold prices due this time was still high. You need to understand the business operation in order to make an accurate prediction.  GoldFocus      ( Date: 23-Jun-2019 11:28) Posted: Profit margin is not as important as EPS right now for a gold miner. The following all favor an increase in EPS (and hence share price) for CNMC right now, moving forward  1. Increasing gold production 2. Increase gold price 3. Decreasing AISC  It has 914000 Oz of gold to mine with its 15 years license. It just needs to mine the shit out of those ores and it&rsquo s EPS will go up. Look at graphs published on Cnmc&rsquo s website. Diverging gold price chart and AISC. It&rsquo s set to look like when CNMC peaked in 2016.   destinykraze      ( Date: 22-Jun-2019 17:21) Posted: It will get there when it' s gold ore grades goes up. It' s profit margin is not good enough to bring it back. The + point is gold is going up, but obviously it doesnt warranty a 100% increase
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GoldFocus Member	23-Jun-2019 11:28        GoldFocus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Profit margin is not as important as EPS right now for a gold miner. The following all favor an increase in EPS (and hence share price) for CNMC right now, moving forward  1. Increasing gold production 2. Increase gold price 3. Decreasing AISC  It has 914000 Oz of gold to mine with its 15 years license. It just needs to mine the shit out of those ores and it&rsquo s EPS will go up. Look at graphs published on Cnmc&rsquo s website. Diverging gold price chart and AISC. It&rsquo s set to look like when CNMC peaked in 2016.   destinykraze      ( Date: 22-Jun-2019 17:21) Posted: It will get there when it' s gold ore grades goes up. It' s profit margin is not good enough to bring it back. The + point is gold is going up, but obviously it doesnt warranty a 100% increase. FreedomAngelz      ( Date: 21-Jun-2019 18:29) Posted: I`m still stuck at 0.45
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destinykraze Elite	22-Jun-2019 17:21        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	It will get there when it' s gold ore grades goes up. It' s profit margin is not good enough to bring it back. The + point is gold is going up, but obviously it doesnt warranty a 100% increase. FreedomAngelz      ( Date: 21-Jun-2019 18:29) Posted: I`m still stuck at 0.45
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luckyfa Elite	22-Jun-2019 08:08        luckyfa About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hope soon to reach ur 45 and more....gold price expect to rally much much more FreedomAngelz      ( Date: 21-Jun-2019 18:29) Posted: I`m still stuck at 0.45
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FreedomAngelz Veteran	21-Jun-2019 18:29        FreedomAngelz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I`m still stuck at 0.45
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destinykraze Elite	21-Jun-2019 18:25        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	uplifted by gold price. but company' s profit margin and profit still looking bad.
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luckyfa Elite	21-Jun-2019 17:47        luckyfa About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Gold price has its bigger rise these days....with uncertainty ongoing, the price likely gonna go much higher and faster....guess cnmc has just started it's rise and suspect big big rise coming....
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jusforshare Member	20-Jun-2019 09:48        jusforshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Gold price surge!! CNMC come to  play? critical.thinkin      ( Date: 15-May-2019 10:16) Posted: Seems like cnmc having very good result released yesterday and on the way back to its high. Seems profitable. There is a investor dialogue later, who's going to hear what the Ceo will say?
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