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FreedomInvestor Member	03-Apr-2019 10:31        FreedomInvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Extract from the Report: Boom or bust? China  growth reminiscent of earlier boom-and-bust experiences Best World&rsquo s (BW) strong growth has typically been underpinned by a single country: Indonesia had anchored 2006-08 growth before revenue collapsed Taiwan was the focus during 2013-16 before an unexpected decline in 2017. In both instances, sales have failed to recover. With China sales surging, momentum in 2019 is set to continue, but we are concerned if the strong growth is sustainable. This is underscored by results of an online search on Baidu/WeChat, where the direct-selling company&rsquo s flagship brand, Dr&rsquo s Secret, is ranked much lower than peers. Our revised numbers are below consensus. Maintain SELL to a new S$1.75 target (from S$1.29). The boom-bust experience in Indonesia Despite a diversified geographical exposure, BW&rsquo s strong performance is usually anchored to a single country. Prior to the 2008 crisis, Indonesia had been a key driver as BW successfully engaged the Indo community in Singapore to distribute in Indonesia. Although there were regulatory issues regarding imports in 2009, BW did adapt by enhancing the product mix. However, sales have failed to recover despite a recovery in Indonesia&rsquo s GDP after the crisis. Revisiting our May 2017 cautious view on Taiwan We expressed concerns in May 2017 - despite BW delivering above-consensus estimates (thanks to China) - due to an unexpected slowdown in Taiwan. We attributed the sharp slowdown to inventory overbuild among distributors. Sales in Taiwan have yet to recover from 2017-18 levels despite BW&rsquo s efforts to improve its market positioning. Red flags in China as consumer interest trails revenue outperformance China is now BW&rsquo s key market (54% of revenue). A stronger-than-expected 4Q18 implies momentum in 2019 will continue, but we are concerned the issues faced in Indonesia and Taiwan could repeat. Our online study on the Chinese market using Baidu/WeChat Trends API, however, indicates weak consumer interest (proxy via the number of domestic searches) on BW and its product, Dr&rsquo s Secret (晳 之 密 ). China, being a relatively new market, explains its strong performance as they expand distributors during the initial phase, but the significant gap between consumer interest and revenue implies momentum could stall once the number of distributors reaches saturation. Retain SELL with new S$1.75 target Our revised estimates suggest a strong 2019 (16% above Bloomberg consensus as earnings could surprise) before a decline in 2020-21 (32-44% below as end demand sellthrough could be challenged). Our S$1.75 target is based on 12x PE (avg 19-21CL EPS). dark_knight      ( Date: 03-Apr-2019 09:53) Posted: anyone know where i can read the CLSA report ?
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joker123 Senior	03-Apr-2019 10:21        joker123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree. How to justify for the share price. DARE NOT TOUCH.  You all think singaporean can do business ? Are they capable to survive in the big OCEAN ? ALL singapore companies can only survive in the local turf once out in sea all got EATEN till no BONES. SHAME. BEST TO AVOID LOOK AT  1)hyflux 2)Noble 3)NOL 4)TIGER AIR 5)CSM   michaeltan      ( Date: 03-Apr-2019 10:13) Posted: Surely PwC has found out something...NAV for the group is only $0.31 Trading with caution. DYODD! beng1102      ( Date: 03-Apr-2019 09:40) Posted: New her but not new in SGX.  This kind of report are just help them to trade and make more profit.  Brand name ranking low is ok for as long as it is still gain market share and branding will improve.  China is so big and will not go down like Taiwan and Indonesia so quickly.  This report is just creating Trading opportunity for themselves.  Look at cash flow, there is a lot of free cash balance and dividend raise to 4.2 centrs all thes are real and just analysis.
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michaeltan Master	03-Apr-2019 10:13        michaeltan About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Surely PwC has found out something...NAV for the group is only $0.31 Trading with caution. DYODD! beng1102      ( Date: 03-Apr-2019 09:40) Posted: New her but not new in SGX.  This kind of report are just help them to trade and make more profit.  Brand name ranking low is ok for as long as it is still gain market share and branding will improve.  China is so big and will not go down like Taiwan and Indonesia so quickly.  This report is just creating Trading opportunity for themselves.  Look at cash flow, there is a lot of free cash balance and dividend raise to 4.2 centrs all thes are real and just analysis.
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dark_knight Member	03-Apr-2019 09:53        dark_knight About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	anyone know where i can read the CLSA report ?
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beng1102 Elite	03-Apr-2019 09:40        beng1102 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	New her but not new in SGX.  This kind of report are just help them to trade and make more profit.  Brand name ranking low is ok for as long as it is still gain market share and branding will improve.  China is so big and will not go down like Taiwan and Indonesia so quickly.  This report is just creating Trading opportunity for themselves.  Look at cash flow, there is a lot of free cash balance and dividend raise to 4.2 centrs all thes are real and just analysis.
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SgYuan Supreme	03-Apr-2019 09:10        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	week chart low hit and rebound. - px hit 192 SgYuan      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 20:21) Posted: day chart low support so easily broken - left week chart low bollinger @190 - trend is moving to week low - unless px supported SgYuan      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:17) Posted: px has hit day low bollinger @212 - see if supported - if not then week low @191 ew w0 201 w1 279 w2? w1 78 w2 48 tgt 231 - this already passed and in danger condition - px hit 219 delta 60 dn 77% - dn 77.6% to 88.6% - next tgt 88.6% delta 69 tgt 210 - this must be supported
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Roxy1968 Senior	03-Apr-2019 09:06        Roxy1968 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Danger to hold at this price Goldfinger      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 23:24) Posted: Ok thanks - will wait for entry at $1.75 instead then. runaway      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 22:12) Posted: CLSA report in a nutshell: Indonesia failed to recover from bust, an expected slowdown in Taiwan, and red flags in China. Weak brand awareness. BW is not on the list of leading market players, ranked 13 based on Chinas 2018 revenue. Sell, TP $1.75.
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Goldfinger Supreme	02-Apr-2019 23:24        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ok thanks - will wait for entry at $1.75 instead then. runaway      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 22:12) Posted: CLSA report in a nutshell: Indonesia failed to recover from bust, an expected slowdown in Taiwan, and red flags in China. Weak brand awareness. BW is not on the list of leading market players, ranked 13 based on Chinas 2018 revenue. Sell, TP $1.75.
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aaronw.misc Member	02-Apr-2019 22:32        aaronw.misc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	up post. Re-iterate $2.  aaronw.misc      ( Date: 07-Mar-2019 22:19) Posted: up again. 5 days black candles vs 2 white candles over last 7 trading days. Spells negativity. 1) No position for now. If an investor looking to buy, maybe he will wait for a better entry price or when price stablizes  2) If an investor has existing position:       (A) will he average down at current price? Unlikely. Price not stablized and Pending clarification from BW     (B) will he hold? very likely       (C) will he sell? maybe, then buy back at lower price All these probabilities also point towards lack of buyers and more sellers. $2-2.1 seems really on track   aaronw.misc      ( Date: 01-Mar-2019 10:56) Posted: u
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fundamentalhero Veteran	02-Apr-2019 22:18        fundamentalhero About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Yells: "I NEED HONEYS AND MONIES"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	are you serious ?!? [not vested] just want to know. if this is true. thanks for the summary. runaway      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 22:12) Posted: CLSA report in a nutshell: Indonesia failed to recover from bust, an expected slowdown in Taiwan, and red flags in China. Weak brand awareness. BW is not on the list of leading market players, ranked 13 based on Chinas 2018 revenue. Sell, TP $1.75.
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runaway Senior	02-Apr-2019 22:12        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	CLSA report in a nutshell: Indonesia failed to recover from bust, an expected slowdown in Taiwan, and red flags in China. Weak brand awareness. BW is not on the list of leading market players, ranked 13 based on Chinas 2018 revenue. Sell, TP $1.75.
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Jamesbond007 Veteran	02-Apr-2019 21:11        Jamesbond007 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A stock good befittì ng gambers.
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SgYuan Supreme	02-Apr-2019 20:21        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	day chart low support so easily broken - left week chart low bollinger @190 - trend is moving to week low - unless px supported SgYuan      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:17) Posted: px has hit day low bollinger @212 - see if supported - if not then week low @191 ew w0 201 w1 279 w2? w1 78 w2 48 tgt 231 - this already passed and in danger condition - px hit 219 delta 60 dn 77% - dn 77.6% to 88.6% - next tgt 88.6% delta 69 tgt 210 - this must be supported SgYuan      ( Date: 29-Mar-2019 14:55) Posted: px punch thr day mid bollinger @235 - now heading to day low bollinger @212 - if day low break - then next resistance week low @191 this form the wave c formation wave a 333 201 delta 132 wave b 201 279 delta 78 up 59% wave c 279 ? Still got last chance ew w0 201 w1 279 w2? w1 78 w2 48 tgt 231 - this already passed and in danger condition - px hit 219 delta 60 dn 77% - dn 77.6% to 88.6% - next tgt 88.6% delta 69 tgt 210 - this is day chart low bollinge
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Goldfinger Supreme	02-Apr-2019 20:04        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	BEing crushed badly - but I will wait for $1.88 entry
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bwavep Senior	02-Apr-2019 19:47        bwavep About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sharing is Caring  recent selling is shortists' delight.... let mr.market decide when reversal comes, okay? China growth reminiscent of earlier boom-and-bust experiences Best World&rsquo s (BW) strong growth has typically been underpinned by a single country: Indonesia had anchored 2006-08 growth before revenue collapsed Taiwan was the focus during 2013-16 before an unexpected decline in 2017. In both instances, sales have failed to recover. With China sales surging, momentum in 2019 is set to continue, but we are concerned if the strong growth is sustainable. This is underscored by results of an online search on Baidu/WeChat, where the direct-selling company&rsquo s flagship brand, Dr&rsquo s Secret, is ranked much lower than peers. Our revised numbers are below consensus. Maintain SELL to a new S$1.75 target (from S$1.29). bwavep      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 17:16) Posted: its bcos of a CLSA sell report.  heng my broker source solid, alert client first.    chart made by the report, forum chappies!    who says a good broker not relevant these days!    Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:38) Posted: Really hit 2.1 神 算
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joker123 Senior	02-Apr-2019 17:58        joker123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	May drop further to $1.50 BEWARE  bishan22      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 17:40) Posted: Oversold...?? Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:40) Posted: Oops 208
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bishan22 Supreme	02-Apr-2019 17:40        bishan22 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Oversold...?? Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:40) Posted: Oops 208
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stockpicker Master	02-Apr-2019 17:32        stockpicker About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The Chief of the Enforcement Office  said  in mid March that he expected the enforcement action to continue after the 100-day action ended in early March.. Read their offical news to find out if what he said is true or not http://www.zhixiao001.com/html/19876.html   stockpicker      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 17:27) Posted: The Chinese nowadays are very strict and the enforcing officers are very kiasi because of the many " office cleanups" going on China..   Take BWL' s Franchisee license for Dr. Secret,  the Authority gave the approval only for Changsha area and not for the whole of China   unless BWL can clarify and claim that  they have also approval for Franchising in other China cities,  it will hard for investors to put all their money in BWL.  Going forward, whether this counter will cheong will depend much on when the Authorities will lift the enforcement actions.    .  Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:40) Posted: Oops 208
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stockpicker Master	02-Apr-2019 17:27        stockpicker About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The Chinese nowadays are very strict and the enforcing officers are very kiasi because of the many " office cleanups" going on China..   Take BWL' s Franchisee license for Dr. Secret,  the Authority gave the approval only for Changsha area and not for the whole of China   unless BWL can clarify and claim that  they have also approval for Franchising in other China cities,  it will hard for investors to put all their money in BWL.  Going forward, whether this counter will cheong will depend much on when the Authorities will lift the enforcement actions.    .  Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:40) Posted: Oops 208
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bwavep Senior	02-Apr-2019 17:16        bwavep About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	its bcos of a CLSA sell report.  heng my broker source solid, alert client first.    chart made by the report, forum chappies!    who says a good broker not relevant these days!    Tiger04      ( Date: 02-Apr-2019 14:38) Posted: Really hit 2.1 神 算
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