| Latest Forum Topics / StarHub Last:1.01 -- |
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Starhub
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eric998
Supreme |
06-Feb-2017 09:14
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Don' t lose hope and heart, 2.77 still a good dividend play at 5.7% p.a.   
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eric998
Supreme |
06-Feb-2017 09:11
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Just as expected.. slight recovery from here..
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earlybird14
Supreme |
06-Feb-2017 07:37
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reducing dividend to 4c per quarter may be just a start. Subjected to performance, it may go lower and lower.
We see Temasek baby fall one by one, so better be careful when the bad time is still not over yet.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
06-Feb-2017 07:33
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Never said never. I am not positive at all.
1) StarHub face 4th telecom, let's say each telecom lose 2% market share(very less) to 4th, 2% revenue loss is 12millon loss. Expenses won't be reduced when revenue loss, this 12 million can immediately eat in profit to drive profit further down. 2) I am surprised why StarHub supporter tend to ignore the debt issue that StarHub has, the increase in debt mean increase in finance expenses, U.S. Interest rate hike are on the way up, it will just jack up this cost and reduce profit further. 3) StarHub maintain high dividend not paying debt but enjoying low interest environment since 2011, all the cash paid to dividend and drive price to record high. Now, situation go opposite. Smart one run at 4, then wait for bottom to be supported, now so many uncertain which potential drive StarHub price lower and lower. Even still stay confident with StarHub, also wait till 4th telecom come in, 4 cents dividend started to issue and see if result continue fall or not in next coming quarter. The best time to buy StarHub again may be end 2017 to make sure price are supported and all bad impact are priced in. Now simply conclude is bottom are purely trying your luck to hit bottom and expect all potential impact are minimal in the future.
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GodOfTrader
Senior |
06-Feb-2017 04:36
Yells: "LET YOUR IGNORANCE BE SHOWN TOMORROW!" |
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As i am GodOfTrader, I only hold for Long Term as said in my prediction, daily movements does not affect my position :)  
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TELANX86
Member |
06-Feb-2017 01:02
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It will never be 2.6 as of now  lol. Drops always kicks in prior to news. Funds manager is the biggest player amongst all. =) Cheers ! |
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jeremyow
Master |
05-Feb-2017 21:40
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Starhub' s full year 2016 results showed resiliency as compared to 2015 in terms of revenue, operating profit and net profit. The decrease in revenue, operating profit and net profit for 2016 as compared to 2015 is not significant at below 10%. However, resiliency may have another meaning in itself. If one examines Starhub' s past 10 years financial performance, it is so resilient that one may form the impression that such resiliency means that revenues, operating profits and net profits have stagnated at least over the past 6 years. In fact, they have stagnated at current levels for past 6 years.  The 2016 diluted EPS stands at 19.7 cents per share which is close to a decrease of 2 cents per share as compared to 2015' s diluted EPS of 21.4 cents per share. This is on the back of no increase in the share base. The % decrease in diluted EPS is about 8% y-o-y. The whole picture becomes clearer if one looks at Starhub' s past 10 years financial performance. The 2016' s diluted EPS of 19.7 cents per share is like a retracement back to its 2006' s EPS of 17 cents per share. If 2017' s diluted EPS were to drop further by another close to 2 cents per share, it will really be back to the EPS level of 17 cents per share in 2006. This begs the question whether profitability has indeed stagnated for this giant telecom company.     If one examines the total borrowings of Starhub in 2016 as compared to 2015, it has increased from 687.5 million in 2015 to 987.5 million in 2016. Of course, there will be good reason given to why Starhub needs to increase its borrowings for this or that etc. But, we need to be realistic about it. If borrowings keep increasing while profitability remains stagnant in this case over the past 6 years, then what is the point in increasing borrowings? For growth and expansion? For keeping up its competition with its competitors? At the end of the day, everything must translate to better profitability given time. It is just that practical/ pragmatic with investments. How long must one wait? We are not sure. It maybe one year, two years, or 10 years and more. How many 10 years can an investor wait to see the results from increased capital spending by a company? If one can wait, then no problem. Just wait loh. 10 years never mind if one can wait. For Starhub' s cashflows, free cashflows have decreased in 2016 as compared to 2015 though the decrease is not very significant for a cash generating defensive stock. However, if one examines the past 10 years record for Starhub, its level of free cash flows are even more during the sub-prime crisis in 2008 and 2009. Ever since, its free cash flows has been on a declining trend and as of current stands at SGD 184 million a decline of more than 50% from its free cash flow levels in 2008 and 2009 sub-prime crisis.  From its 2016 cash flow statement, there is an increase of proceeds from issue of medium term notes in 2016 of SGD 300 million. Without this issuance of medium term notes, Starhub could have run into a deficit in its cash and cash equivalents. This issuance of medium term notes to raise SGD 300 million is indeed timely in 2016 to prevent running into a deficit in cash and cash equivalents. But, it seems to also protray a cash tight situation for Starhub. Without this timely issuance of medium term notes, then all cash and cash equivalents would run into a deficit on its balance sheet. This is indeed timely to increase borrowings to prevent running into a deficit in cash and cash equivalents! We shall see this year and next few years whether more borrowings equate to better profitability and free cash flows? Last but not least, the dividends for next year has been advised to be revised downwards to 4 cents per quarterly. This means a potential decrease of 20% in dividends to be received this year. A good move indeed by Starhub to reduce its dividends as I anticipated due to various stress signs that it was having a tough time to maintain its dividends of 20 cents per share for recent few years. I wonder will the share price also be traded downwards. But as of current, it seems that the share price of Starhub has already been traded downwards from its previous lofty levels of $4 and more. Maybe at current levels of around $3 is where it is more realistic due to the impending potential reduction in dividends this year? This could mean the heydays of lofty valuations at $4 and more in share price may be over for the time being at least for this and next year due to the potential dividend cut and entry of a 4th telecom operator in this industry. Starhub is indeed a resilient company but it is a tough game for it as well to keep up its financial performance.    
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earlybird14
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 19:41
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2.6 coming....
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Goblin
Member |
05-Feb-2017 18:51
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Hi Anthony, you seemed to know alot about TPG. Care to share more insights ? Would love to learn from you !
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Goblin
Member |
05-Feb-2017 18:44
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Opps...looks like I am wrong. TPG only knows how to go price war. Thus, M1 will be having fun with them. 5-6% market share is what TPG is going after and interestingly, they have no mobile experience using Singapore as the learning ground. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/telecom-tycoon-a-reclusive-man-with-grand-ambitions
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chengwh1
Elite |
05-Feb-2017 18:33
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TPG is ' TPG Telecom Ltd' , ticker symbol in the ASX is : TPM. In a recent report by NAB, there was this statement in the report : TPG Telecom Ltd is one of the worst performers in the Telecommunication Services industry. |
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anthonykwong
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 18:26
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Another one saying "TBG" says a lot what he actually knows or dont know
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Goblin
Member |
05-Feb-2017 18:20
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I agree with Telanx86. M1 is competing themselves based on price rather than value. I doubt TBG will go into a price war as that' s typically not the approach an Aussie based company would do as they wouldn' t be that familar with the way the Asian market works. Thus, they really need to do wonders to capture the market. If you listen to both M1 and Starhub' s strategy, their strategy is to prevent churn through better customer experience e.g. Hubbing, optimise opex and capex e.g. Starhub talked about negotiating risk taking business model with content providers. Both will be prioritising in the enterprise space to grow their revenues aka going after the upcoming IOT, Smart nation etc.   
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Goblin
Member |
05-Feb-2017 18:03
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Opps! Yes. 4 cents per quarter. 
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anthonykwong
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 12:43
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your " TBG "says a lot about what you actually know
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investshare
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 12:21
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So what % market share you think TPG will get? 0%?
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TELANX86
Member |
05-Feb-2017 12:14
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I personally dont think TBG will be affecting much as TBG itself in australia is not doing well. always outage and issues occured and definitely it takes times to grow and establish. The price may drop due to small players as easily affected by news. Profit is still a profit. Dont forget the fund managers that is in place as well. |
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risktaker
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 10:51
Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise " |
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4th telco coming.... what starhub offer is not something special... | ||||
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
05-Feb-2017 10:49
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Sorry 40cts over 3 years or do you mean 4 cts per quarter?
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Goblin
Member |
05-Feb-2017 07:40
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Check out the Q& A session with Starhub where the analyst actually drill the mgt on the cashflow, dividends and new competitor entrants. Apparently, Starhub is comfortable with 40 cents payout for the next 3 years. The decrease in dividends is meant to use the cash to further invest in their infrastructure and customer experience to prepare for new competitors coming into the market. http://webcast.openbriefing.com/StarHub_FY2016/player/index.php?player_id=13118& skip_stats=1& archive=1 |
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