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Global Logistic
viviennelyy
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29-Aug-2016 15:47     
 
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Seems like a bullish hammer forming!
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newbie24
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29-Aug-2016 14:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Next few days could see a chance to bottom fish. Sidelines.
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FATABA
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29-Aug-2016 13:45     
 
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DBS also have a up call TP 2.47 .....so why CS ( angmo one ) more right or something else .

​ Basically interest is expect to rise this year and so cost of borrowing will goes up for GLP ....however not everyone looks into the detail of their business and lease signed. stronger USD is going to help them too.

Whatever its an opportunity for investor .....see when CS reverse gear.

 

 

 

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 11:31) Posted:



Apparently due to Credit Suisse issuing an underperform call on this counter.

lsyiat      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 09:25) Posted:

What happen to this counter? Keep falling from 1.90
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Equity1
Senior
29-Aug-2016 13:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Looks like it may go down towards 1.80 then 1.72
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earlybird14
Supreme
29-Aug-2016 13:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Swing with trend or big fishes is the basis of trading. A stock without buying interest from big fishes it can stay low for long time even with good dividends and P/E ratio.

Qanghoo      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 12:24) Posted:



Down here seems that few have minds of their own.  Once someone says sell, all sell n short.  Pathetically hardly any contrarian play. 

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 11:31) Posted:



Apparently due to Credit Suisse issuing an underperform call on this counter.


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ecekca
Elite
29-Aug-2016 13:00     
 
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everyone just trading around..haha

 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 12:24) Posted:



Down here seems that few have minds of their own.  Once someone says sell, all sell n short.  Pathetically hardly any contrarian play. 

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 11:31) Posted:



Apparently due to Credit Suisse issuing an underperform call on this counter.


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Northy
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29-Aug-2016 12:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Everyone is following the masses. Loaded up at 1.82... Play the long game
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Qanghoo
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29-Aug-2016 12:24     
 
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Down here seems that few have minds of their own.  Once someone says sell, all sell n short.  Pathetically hardly any contrarian play. 

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 11:31) Posted:



Apparently due to Credit Suisse issuing an underperform call on this counter.

lsyiat      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 09:25) Posted:

What happen to this counter? Keep falling from 1.90
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BullsAndBear
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29-Aug-2016 11:31     
 
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Apparently due to Credit Suisse issuing an underperform call on this counter.

lsyiat      ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 09:25) Posted:

What happen to this counter? Keep falling from 1.90
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lsyiat
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29-Aug-2016 09:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What happen to this counter? Keep falling from 1.90
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hapygolucke
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28-Aug-2016 03:48     
 
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Global Logistic Properties

Valuation is still attractive

  DBS Group Research   |   August 15, 2016
 

Maintain BUY with TP of S$2.47

We maintain our BUY call and target price of S$2.47. Despite the potential headwinds in China and Brazil, we believe the current share price, at 0.8x P/BV and below the lower end of historical range, is attractive and has priced in the bad news.

https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/templatedata/article/recentdevelopment/data/en/DBSV/082016/GLP_SP_08152016.xml

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bishan22
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26-Aug-2016 21:19     
 
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When the 3rd crow form .... it will be down all the way...smiley

bishan22      ( Date: 25-Aug-2016 22:46) Posted:



What happen??? today sampai tua.....

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earlybird14
Supreme
26-Aug-2016 19:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		In stock and forex market, experience built up required 3-4 years only, there are many below 30 young already million through market.

Not about age, more on market understanding and system and know how.

sun233      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 16:55) Posted:



These analyst are just kids. My daughter was interning at a well known US bank and she told me half the analyst' s are under the age of 25!! Anyway buying opportunity. Not vested yet. Sitting on sidelines till i get some clarity about yellen.

earlybird14      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 16:10) Posted:

Credit Suisse mentioned PE of 26 by excluding the property gain. In fact, through out so many years without the property gain, glp pe always stand at 26.

The property gain were used to push GLp price to 3 dollars.

This is just a repeated story for palm oil counter recorded biological assets gain to push in the past and also Ezion to record asset gain by pushing it to 2 dollars.

All these are 1 time gain, price to be sustainable and defensive eventually rely on the actual operation gain.

Swing with the trend when it recorded all these gain and market buy the ideal but once the steam is gone and the one time gain stopped, market still refer back to the operation gain and price wil free fall to meet this level.

So in fact, glp is not really undervalued and this will be surface out once they stop to report assets gain and their PE will be 26 rather than 10.

Credit suisss just take the advantage all these theory no matter on Ezion or on glp now
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BullsAndBear
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26-Aug-2016 17:37     
 
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Guys, chill lah. I can assure you that  research analyst don' t live on fresh air and water, and serve the markets. Take the reseach reports with a pinch of salt, no matter if its  a bullish or bearish call.
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Qanghoo
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26-Aug-2016 17:16     
 
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Kids, real kids.  Haven' t seen much of the world n just say anything that comes to mind.  Can just twist n turn n flip flop around n still make a living.  If there' s  not much re-rating catalysts (n how much do they know anyway?) n that' s a convincing grd to be a downward risk, then a lot of stocks in this country are in danger of facing downward risks?  So, where do we go from here? 

sun233      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 16:55) Posted:



These analyst are just kids. My daughter was interning at a well known US bank and she told me half the analyst' s are under the age of 25!! Anyway buying opportunity. Not vested yet. Sitting on sidelines till i get some clarity about yellen.

earlybird14      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 16:10) Posted:

Credit Suisse mentioned PE of 26 by excluding the property gain. In fact, through out so many years without the property gain, glp pe always stand at 26.

The property gain were used to push GLp price to 3 dollars.

This is just a repeated story for palm oil counter recorded biological assets gain to push in the past and also Ezion to record asset gain by pushing it to 2 dollars.

All these are 1 time gain, price to be sustainable and defensive eventually rely on the actual operation gain.

Swing with the trend when it recorded all these gain and market buy the ideal but once the steam is gone and the one time gain stopped, market still refer back to the operation gain and price wil free fall to meet this level.

So in fact, glp is not really undervalued and this will be surface out once they stop to report assets gain and their PE will be 26 rather than 10.

Credit suisss just take the advantage all these theory no matter on Ezion or on glp now
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sun233
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26-Aug-2016 16:55     
 
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These analyst are just kids. My daughter was interning at a well known US bank and she told me half the analyst' s are under the age of 25!! Anyway buying opportunity. Not vested yet. Sitting on sidelines till i get some clarity about yellen.

earlybird14      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 16:10) Posted:

Credit Suisse mentioned PE of 26 by excluding the property gain. In fact, through out so many years without the property gain, glp pe always stand at 26.

The property gain were used to push GLp price to 3 dollars.

This is just a repeated story for palm oil counter recorded biological assets gain to push in the past and also Ezion to record asset gain by pushing it to 2 dollars.

All these are 1 time gain, price to be sustainable and defensive eventually rely on the actual operation gain.

Swing with the trend when it recorded all these gain and market buy the ideal but once the steam is gone and the one time gain stopped, market still refer back to the operation gain and price wil free fall to meet this level.

So in fact, glp is not really undervalued and this will be surface out once they stop to report assets gain and their PE will be 26 rather than 10.

Credit suisss just take the advantage all these theory no matter on Ezion or on glp now.

Qanghoo      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 14:54) Posted:



Wah, even a lack of re-rating catalysts can be put forward as a reason for  assigning a low valuation on a stock, what else can we not bullsh*t?  Anyway, thx for this post, brother.  It' s alerting me to pay closer attention for buying opportunities ....


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BullsAndBear
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26-Aug-2016 16:28     
 
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Panic button strike.
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earlybird14
Supreme
26-Aug-2016 16:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Credit Suisse mentioned PE of 26 by excluding the property gain. In fact, through out so many years without the property gain, glp pe always stand at 26.

The property gain were used to push GLp price to 3 dollars.

This is just a repeated story for palm oil counter recorded biological assets gain to push in the past and also Ezion to record asset gain by pushing it to 2 dollars.

All these are 1 time gain, price to be sustainable and defensive eventually rely on the actual operation gain.

Swing with the trend when it recorded all these gain and market buy the ideal but once the steam is gone and the one time gain stopped, market still refer back to the operation gain and price wil free fall to meet this level.

So in fact, glp is not really undervalued and this will be surface out once they stop to report assets gain and their PE will be 26 rather than 10.

Credit suisss just take the advantage all these theory no matter on Ezion or on glp now.

Qanghoo      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 14:54) Posted:



Wah, even a lack of re-rating catalysts can be put forward as a reason for  assigning a low valuation on a stock, what else can we not bullsh*t?  Anyway, thx for this post, brother.  It' s alerting me to pay closer attention for buying opportunities ....

sunview      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 14:40) Posted:



Credit Suisse has initiated an Underperform call with target price of  $1.65

While asset valuations are likely to be supported by cap rate compression given low rates, nearterm earnings risks, uncertainty over GLP' s strategic direction and a lack of rerating catalysts are likely to result in downside risks.

● The long-term case for growth in the Chinese logistics facilities market is well flagged however, the degree of undersupply of modern logistics is likely overestimated, with supply growth from major players alone > 40% in 2016, amid moderating demand.

● Given further signs of a slowdown, we believe either of occupancies or development starts (CS: 2.2 mn sq m in China vs guidance of 2.6 mn sq m) will likely disappoint. Our FY17 core PATMI estimate is 17% below consensus.

● Our S$1.65 TP, based on a 32% discount to RNAV (1 sd below historical average), implies a P/E of 26x, in line with the historical average. Aggressive buybacks have created some share price support, but we see little upside surprise through capital recycling. Rather than a rerating, a China income fund or China HoldCo IPO is likely to contribute to core earnings downside risks.

Explosive supply a near-term concern
While the long-term case for consumption-led growth in the Chinese logistics facilities market is well flagged, we see downside risks from a macroeconomic slowdown in the near term. From two facilities in Jun- 2015, new entrant Vanke has now amassed a total portfolio GFA of 1.25 mn sq m&mdash indicative of the mounting risks of oversupply in the near term.

Market leader&hellip but does size matter?
GLP has market-leading positions across its operating geographies of China, Japan, the US and Brazil. GLP' s dominant scale is supportive of critical success factors of:

(1) access to land,

(2) access to funding and

(3) the ability to generate the " network effect" .

Yet, barriers to entry appear surmountable, with GLP' s competitors being able to grow supply at a 27% CAGR over FY10-16, in line with GLP' s 29% CAGR, supported by sizeable liquidity-seeking logistics assets.

Using JD.com, GLP' s second-largest customer in China, as a case in point, we estimate GLP only represented c.12% of its total area, with c.80% of JD.com' s requirements leased from other lessors. This despite GLP' s far larger scale of operations, with heightened risk of portfolio vacancy in the future, given customers' preference towards self-constructed warehouses.

Downside risks to growth expectations
Effective rents in FY16 have remained close to FY12 levels, despite steady same-property rent growth of c.5% in recent years. We believe this is due to GLP reporting its rents and lease ratios for stabilised properties only. In addition, the shift towards lower tier cities in China will continue to pose a drag on portfolio rents we estimate completed GFA in tier 1 cities declined from 49% in FY11 to 25% in FY16.

Our FY17-19E core PATMI estimates are 3-17% below consensus. While valuations are undemanding, we believe it will take time for GLP to be vindicated, unless management is able to deliver on sustainable earnings and NAV growth. Meanwhile, we highlight headline earnings and PATMI ex-revaluations have remained largely flat since FY11, while NAV remains around c. US$1.80-1.90 levels since FY13.

Key risks to our view are:
(1) currency fluctuations in the key geographies of China and Japan as GLP' s accounts are quoted in USD

(2) global economic growth

(3) pace of supply growth and

(4) regulatory risks which may impact access to land and capital.


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BullsAndBear
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26-Aug-2016 15:42     
 
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I suspect shorts are going to hold $1.86. This will bring in short term specs to push the price down further, as 1.86/1.865 is actually a critical support of the 100DMA.

FATABA      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 15:10) Posted:



Large buy volume comng up at 1.85/855 ...fight on with CS directly ....see how much they can afford to push it down.
​ Lock horns with a wrong counter

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 15:03) Posted:



Well, what' s surprising for CS.. But I think they pick the wrong counter lah, beat dog also must see master leh.. Looks who' s behind GLP..


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FATABA
Supreme
26-Aug-2016 15:10     
 
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Large buy volume comng up at 1.85/855 ...fight on with CS directly ....see how much they can afford to push it down.
​ Lock horns with a wrong counter

BullsAndBear      ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 15:03) Posted:



Well, what' s surprising for CS.. But I think they pick the wrong counter lah, beat dog also must see master leh.. Looks who' s behind GLP..

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