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Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg  Post Reply
Y venture - UOB TP $0.28
Rosesyrup
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12-Aug 20:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Not bad, moved up by nearly 1 percent. Might see faster improvement as news of world economy recovery start flowing in  in 3Q.

sgng123      ( Date: 12-Aug-2013 17:37) Posted:

Prepare for ship change of direction soon, NOL investors hold on and enjoy the rides upward. I am waiting for the sweet spot for punting when share price rise high enough to entice people to punt resulting in higher volume. Singapore GDP 2Q up 3.8%, manufacturing up 32% good sign for export demand since Singapore is open and export oriented economy, good guide for future demand. Watching stock go up and shortists got burnt part of the joy lol. By the way from 2Q, I noticed that there is a huge improvement in fuel oil consumption, 1Q = 113K metric ton saved vs 2Q = 229K metric tons. Almost double the amount of oil saved, suspect nol this year might be improvising extra slow steaming coupled with the 10 ( 2011/12 new deliveries) and 2 ( 1Q new built) fuel efficiency ships. 78K TEU new builts delivered in 2Q and no chartered ships returned, transpacific load load dipped to 86% compared to 91% in 1Q. 1 to 2 new ships might be deployed in transpacific in 2Q to explain the dip in load factor, 3Q might see 10+ smaller chartered ships returned to accommodate 78K new built. All these would result in similar cost saving in 3Q and later in 4Q when more ships would be returned due to another 5 ships delivered in 2H. But the best part is top 3 carriers forming P3 might be planning to take out less fuel efficient/ chartered ships from transpacific/ Europe trade lane to prepare for new built deployment in P3 on 2Q14. Oil also peaked and slowly declining due to low demand toward end of year. 3Q13 NOL fiscal result would be very interesting to watch due to freight rate recovering and further cost improvement.
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sgng123
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12-Aug-2013 17:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Prepare for ship change of direction soon, NOL investors hold on and enjoy the rides upward. I am waiting for the sweet spot for punting when share price rise high enough to entice people to punt resulting in higher volume. Singapore GDP 2Q up 3.8%, manufacturing up 32% good sign for export demand since Singapore is open and export oriented economy, good guide for future demand. Watching stock go up and shortists got burnt part of the joy lol. By the way from 2Q, I noticed that there is a huge improvement in fuel oil consumption, 1Q = 113K metric ton saved vs 2Q = 229K metric tons. Almost double the amount of oil saved, suspect nol this year might be improvising extra slow steaming coupled with the 10 ( 2011/12 new deliveries) and 2 ( 1Q new built) fuel efficiency ships. 78K TEU new builts delivered in 2Q and no chartered ships returned, transpacific load load dipped to 86% compared to 91% in 1Q. 1 to 2 new ships might be deployed in transpacific in 2Q to explain the dip in load factor, 3Q might see 10+ smaller chartered ships returned to accommodate 78K new built. All these would result in similar cost saving in 3Q and later in 4Q when more ships would be returned due to another 5 ships delivered in 2H. But the best part is top 3 carriers forming P3 might be planning to take out less fuel efficient/ chartered ships from transpacific/ Europe trade lane to prepare for new built deployment in P3 on 2Q14. Oil also peaked and slowly declining due to low demand toward end of year. 3Q13 NOL fiscal result would be very interesting to watch due to freight rate recovering and further cost improvement.
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WanSiTong
Supreme
12-Aug-2013 11:29     
 
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Better than expected

NOL?s 1H13 core net loss of US$162m came inat 37% of our full-year loss forecast of US$427m,as wehad underestimated the fruits of NOL?s cost-savinginitiatives. Although2Q13 rates fell 11.5% yoy, the8.9% yoy fall in unit costs significantly cushioned the impact.

CIMB TP  : $ 1.10

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/DqDqgj0L2qcI2UmRa372IQlCkQAMCHKjGHsbWHjmsoc86IO07XcblEFM5E1tZgJ8qxwsNMjMreg1.pdf

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Octavia
Supreme
12-Aug-2013 10:03     
 
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NOL 2Q13 results above estimates Net loss of US$34.6m improved from a loss of $117.9m the previous year. The loss were due to lower average freight rates (-11 ppts y/y), mitigated partially by operational cost efficiencies and lower fuel cost. The lower fuel cost would likely be due to its ongoing fleet optimisation. Among the routes, revenue on transpacific and Asia Europe declined 13% and 18% q/q, with transpacific due to lower volumes (freight rate was flat), but Asia Europe due to declines in freight rates and volumes (-7% and -11%). At end-1H13, 50% of NOL?s newbuild vessels were delivered. Two 14,000 TEU vessels and three 9,000 TEU vessels are expected to be delivered to APL in 2H13. These additions of very large containerships will create better efficiency and reduce APL's vessel per slot cost going forward. Despite the smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and recent rebound in spot freight rates, majority of the street remain negative on the container shipping sector, citing that freight rates have peaked, especially given the lack of peak season (mild at best). UOB Kay Hian expect NOL's 2H13 earnings to see a substantial improvement due to a big jump in AE rates since 1 Jul, whereas rates in 4Q13 will depend highly on carriers' capacity discipline, which house believe is still intact for industry leaders such as Maersk.

Latest broker recommendations as follows: Maybank KE keeps Hold with TP $1.28 HSBC keeps at Underweight with TP $0.90 Nomura maintains Reduce with TP $0.90 Standard Chartered maintains In-line with TP $1.10 Credit Suisse maintains Underperform with TP $0.95 UOB Kay Hian keeps Buy with TP $1.30 OCBC downgrades to Sell with TP $0.95 (from $1.17)
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Hawkeye
Master
12-Aug 09:30     
 
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NOL narrows operational loss to US$120 million, revenues decline 6pc
　   Aug.9--SINGAPORE' Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), owner of APL container line, has narrowed its first half operating loss to US$120 million, a 45 per cent year-on-year improvement, based on revenues of $4.4 billion, which fell six per cent.

　 　 But NOL also posted a half year net profit of $41 million because of the sale of its headquarters building in Singapore for $200 million, thus reversing last year's first half $371 million loss into a major gain.

　 　 APL posted an operational profit loss of $146 million in the first half, but showing a 39 per cent year on year improvement with revenues falling eight per cent to $3.7 billion.

　 　 During January-June period, APL's average revenue per FEU fell seven per cent, but efficiency improvements helped reduce cost of sales per FEU by eight per cent, said the company.

　 　 " Weak demand coupled with an oversupply situation in the industry have continued to put severe pressure on freight rates. This has impacted revenue significantly," said APL president Kenneth Glenn.

　 　 " By maintaining a strong cost discipline, we achieved a better performance despite the deteriorating demand and freight rate environment. We expect that the realisation of our fleet renewal programme will further make significant improvements to our cost base."

　 　 In the first six months of 2013, APL has taken delivery of 19 out of 34 new ships to replace smaller and older units for the sake of reducing APL's vessel slot costs.

　 　 Said NOL chief executive Ng Yat Chung: " Market conditions have worsened in the second quarter of this year compared to a year before. Our container shipping business managed to deliver an improvement in its operating result in spite of difficult trading conditions, which is a good achievement."

　 　 The company expects general market environment and freight rates to remain soft, and the container shipping industry still be beset " with overcapacity and weak freight rates" .
　 　 (Source:shippingazette)
　
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Heero78
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12-Aug-2013 09:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		gone case....not moving at all....
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Hawkeye
Master
12-Aug-2013 02:31     
 
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I buy NOL and buy many many many and soon I will make money as I have made since 2006, then when are you guys?

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha now I will make again starting soon.... Ha Ha Ha Ha

Keep all the negative posting to your self if its not news. Not Interested AH

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 21:33) Posted:



Correction for the following statement:

" The only product that should be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level."

It should be:

" The only product that should NOT be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level. 

Anyway just like to add this:

After selling building, NOL WON'T sell ships because NOL operation can't continue without ship. The same apply for human.

After selling their  conscience by making unfounded claims, human can't sell away their brains. Because without their brain they start to ask nonsense, make nonconstructive personal attack rather debating on theories, and finally gave themselves away as mere unscrupulous shortists trying to make ill-gotten gain. 

Huh? Who do you guys think I was referring to?   Don't get me wrong, I was simply taking about MW and block. LOL.

 

That being said, I still hold shortists who speak the truth with the great respect that they deserved!!!

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 21:10) Posted:



Though not an expert, I shall still try to answer beginners' really beginner (pun intended) type of question: " Hi all bros & expert here. Not vested yet. One thing I don't understand is NOL has been in lost for years. But still alot of ppl still interested in this counter? Is there any mean or hidden reason? Thks."  

Cyclical businesses like NOL have their performance pegged to the economy. They tend to have great performance during period of economy growth and perform badly during downturn. For the past few years, the world economy has been plagued by Subprime crisis and Eurozone debt crisis. As the economy shows sign of recovery, we can expect world trade volume and NOL revenue to increase. Thus NOL's losses is not permanent and in stock market, decision should be based upon a stock future value not the past losses. Past losses in NOL are not really a big concern as it is a industry-wide phenomenal-meaning the losses is not due to NOL's inefficiency and lack of competitiveness. Most importantly, NOL has improved its efficiency greatly these years. This will greatly benefit the company when the industry recovers, especially with few competitors left after 4 years of shake out.  

Although I do agree that NOL is a high leveraged counter, the same financial leverage would greatly magnify its return when revenue improved. Hence this is a VERY high risk/ Very high return counters.  Those who find the risk level too high should simply stay out   and seek other counters that fits their risk appetite.  A high risk product does not mean it should not be bought, as there are always investors who have different risk appetite. The only product that should be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level.

  In my valuation, I assumed that world economy recovers from June 2013 onward. I gave the counter a TP of $1.81 in near term (1 year) and mid-term (2-3 years) TP of $4.22. 

 

NOL

ONLY FOR HIGH RISK TAKER 

KEEP AWAY FROM CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS 



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Rosesyrup
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11-Aug-2013 21:33     
 
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Correction for the following statement:

" The only product that should be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level."

It should be:

" The only product that should NOT be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level. 

Anyway just like to add this:

After selling building, NOL WON'T sell ships because NOL operation can't continue without ship. The same apply for human.

After selling their  conscience by making unfounded claims, human can't sell away their brains. Because without their brain they start to ask nonsense, make nonconstructive personal attack rather debating on theories, and finally gave themselves away as mere unscrupulous shortists trying to make ill-gotten gain. 

Huh? Who do you guys think I was referring to?   Don't get me wrong, I was simply taking about MW and block. LOL.

 

That being said, I still hold shortists who speak the truth with the great respect that they deserved!!!

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 21:10) Posted:



Though not an expert, I shall still try to answer beginners' really beginner (pun intended) type of question: " Hi all bros & expert here. Not vested yet. One thing I don't understand is NOL has been in lost for years. But still alot of ppl still interested in this counter? Is there any mean or hidden reason? Thks."  

Cyclical businesses like NOL have their performance pegged to the economy. They tend to have great performance during period of economy growth and perform badly during downturn. For the past few years, the world economy has been plagued by Subprime crisis and Eurozone debt crisis. As the economy shows sign of recovery, we can expect world trade volume and NOL revenue to increase. Thus NOL's losses is not permanent and in stock market, decision should be based upon a stock future value not the past losses. Past losses in NOL are not really a big concern as it is a industry-wide phenomenal-meaning the losses is not due to NOL's inefficiency and lack of competitiveness. Most importantly, NOL has improved its efficiency greatly these years. This will greatly benefit the company when the industry recovers, especially with few competitors left after 4 years of shake out.  

Although I do agree that NOL is a high leveraged counter, the same financial leverage would greatly magnify its return when revenue improved. Hence this is a VERY high risk/ Very high return counters.  Those who find the risk level too high should simply stay out   and seek other counters that fits their risk appetite.  A high risk product does not mean it should not be bought, as there are always investors who have different risk appetite. The only product that should be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level.

  In my valuation, I assumed that world economy recovers from June 2013 onward. I gave the counter a TP of $1.81 in near term (1 year) and mid-term (2-3 years) TP of $4.22. 

 

NOL

ONLY FOR HIGH RISK TAKER 

KEEP AWAY FROM CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS 


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Rosesyrup
Master
11-Aug-2013 21:10     
 
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Though not an expert, I shall still try to answer beginners' really beginner (pun intended) type of question: " Hi all bros & expert here. Not vested yet. One thing I don't understand is NOL has been in lost for years. But still alot of ppl still interested in this counter? Is there any mean or hidden reason? Thks."  

Cyclical businesses like NOL have their performance pegged to the economy. They tend to have great performance during period of economy growth and perform badly during downturn. For the past few years, the world economy has been plagued by Subprime crisis and Eurozone debt crisis. As the economy shows sign of recovery, we can expect world trade volume and NOL revenue to increase. Thus NOL's losses is not permanent and in stock market, decision should be based upon a stock future value not the past losses. Past losses in NOL are not really a big concern as it is a industry-wide phenomenal-meaning the losses is not due to NOL's inefficiency and lack of competitiveness. Most importantly, NOL has improved its efficiency greatly these years. This will greatly benefit the company when the industry recovers, especially with few competitors left after 4 years of shake out.  

Although I do agree that NOL is a high leveraged counter, the same financial leverage would greatly magnify its return when revenue improved. Hence this is a VERY high risk/ Very high return counters.  Those who find the risk level too high should simply stay out   and seek other counters that fits their risk appetite.  A high risk product does not mean it should not be bought, as there are always investors who have different risk appetite. The only product that should be brought are those that provide inferior return as compared to product of the same risk level.

  In my valuation, I assumed that world economy recovers from June 2013 onward. I gave the counter a TP of $1.81 in near term (1 year) and mid-term (2-3 years) TP of $4.22. 

 

NOL

ONLY FOR HIGH RISK TAKER 

KEEP AWAY FROM CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS 

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SFGuyRuleZ
Veteran
11-Aug-2013 18:42     
 
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Recently did a humble research on this counter as I may want to invest also and realize that the main contributing factor to the losses for the past few years have been due to cost of sales factor. However, I can see for myself that the cost saving measures have to start to become effective, as there are significant improvements from 2011 to first half  2013, for both EBITDA and EBIT margins.

We can't possibly be world leaders in all industries, but as long as I can start to see significant earnings recovery, I may want to invest also. What ynnek1267 pointed out is not wrong, NOL is currently high in debt and if earnings don't start to recover, this company is at risk. However, I can see from my own research that the cost saving measures have really taken effect. Wouldn't rush to invest yet until I can see more significant recovery. And if the global economy recovers on a larger scale, in my humble opinion, $5 or $6 market value or more / share is not impossible. Until then, let's keep in view. Keep up the good work, Bro sgng123..
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ynnek1267
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11-Aug-2013 18:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It is meaningless for a company to cut their manufacturing cost 10 dollar per piece when the competitors are able to cut 20dollar per piece.

This is why top 3 maersk, msc and cma made profit in 2012 but nol lose few hundreds million of dollar in 2012 which the general had announced 500 million cost cutting plan in 2012. NoL was just unable to make profit after cost cutting.

Honeymoon period is over after 3 years. Time to count cash from 2H2012 to 2014. NoL need to pay billion of dollar for new vessels delivery. Instead of bright future, I personally think ugly thing coming soon.

sgng123      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 12:25) Posted:

Should based research on what is being revealed on 2Q result not shouting fear of right warrant, the cost saving fun just started in 2Q cutting 240M more fun to come in 3Q/4Q due to 23 charters ship being returned to owners. Had fun when result out on 3Q showing another huge cost saving pushing down cost another 5%. Ship returned to profit not cos of improving demand but due to right investment made to drastically lower operating cost. Smart move by temasek and next year ship would return to STI component stock portfolio and back to right valuation.
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CSH123
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11-Aug-2013 17:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wow u guys really hw to Squeeze frm sgng
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Oldbird
Master
11-Aug-2013 16:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		You talk more sense now? mr.wahaha
There are many stocks to pick for long term, why NOL ?!!!. As for stocks in shipping industrial, dividend stock YZJ or Cosco will clearly be a better choice. Both are still profitable under adverse conditions?
vested in YZJ.

ynnek1267      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 08:33) Posted:

http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/

When NOL announced to bought all these so called new fuel efficient vessel, the top 3 Maersk, msc and cma had owned it for years, NOL just played catch up game to compensate their mistake made long ago.

Top 3 even order new generation giant vessels 18000teu at the same time when NOL ordered their "long over due fuel efficient" vessels and start to deliver at the same time.
http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/

So NOL is left behind continually. When top 3 make million profit, NOL can only Lose 100million. When top 3 break even like last 3 years, NOL lose billion of dollar.

NOL investor can only expect economic boom again like 2005 to 2008 period. Then, top 3 earn billion profit and NOL earn hundred million profit. However, at this unstable economic condition and overcapacity of vessel, NOL can only lose money or break even.

Yes, temasek may continue to support NOL to pump in money but temasek will request other to pump in to through right. Your share and share price will be diluted as well like previous chartered semi con till you find no matter how much NOL earn in the future, their pe value is always high due to heavy float of share in the market.

Temasek support NOL just to save job in Singapore and Singapore PSA port. This is like SIA and changi airport strategic plan to maintain a industry competition.

However, be realistic as a shareholder will you invest in this kind of lose making and heavy debt company?


sgng123      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 04:34) Posted:



when u got temasek as ur financial backer, unlimited source of funding cos all coming from ur CPF money lol.

Can buy the most fuel efficient ships just need temasek to sign off as guarantor which all the banks in the world would gladly take due to the triple A credit of temasek lol. Now the fuel efficient gain by the new ships is showing it power cut down cost by a whopping 240M in a single quarter   excluding the 10% drop in fuel price, how much more can it cut down in 3Q interested to know might knock the cost by another huge amount. lot of shipping companies dream of having a very strong backer like temasek, got the whole of Singapore citizens CPF as backing. Singaporean are cash  rich due to the fact our CPF money got hundred of billions lock in and used by government to generate income, plus all the money lock in by PR contribution too lol. Sadly cash rich but could never touch it till 55 subject to minimum sum lock in for special account.
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sgng123
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11-Aug 12:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Should based research on what is being revealed on 2Q result not shouting fear of right warrant, the cost saving fun just started in 2Q cutting 240M more fun to come in 3Q/4Q due to 23 charters ship being returned to owners. Had fun when result out on 3Q showing another huge cost saving pushing down cost another 5%. Ship returned to profit not cos of improving demand but due to right investment made to drastically lower operating cost. Smart move by temasek and next year ship would return to STI component stock portfolio and back to right valuation.
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ynnek1267
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11-Aug-2013 08:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		There may be 5 to 10% upside waiting for you in next week. But after next week? There may be right issue waiting for you.

Go to study nol cash position and senior notes raised and the order of new vessels. You will find NOL really has used the cash from senior notes to pay for their 3 year loss to prevent them raising right in last 3 years. Vessels will deliver completely in 2014, management will push price up and issue right soon within a year to balance their financial statement.

As a long term investors, NOL shall not be in your watch list. Short term investors can play, good luck to you not get burnt.
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ynnek1267
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11-Aug-2013 04:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/

When NOL announced to bought all these so called new fuel efficient vessel, the top 3 Maersk, msc and cma had owned it for years, NOL just played catch up game to compensate their mistake made long ago.

Top 3 even order new generation giant vessels 18000teu at the same time when NOL ordered their "long over due fuel efficient" vessels and start to deliver at the same time.
http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/08/11/maersk-makes-waves-with-massive-container-vessels/

So NOL is left behind continually. When top 3 make million profit, NOL can only Lose 100million. When top 3 break even like last 3 years, NOL lose billion of dollar.

NOL investor can only expect economic boom again like 2005 to 2008 period. Then, top 3 earn billion profit and NOL earn hundred million profit. However, at this unstable economic condition and overcapacity of vessel, NOL can only lose money or break even.

Yes, temasek may continue to support NOL to pump in money but temasek will request other to pump in to through right. Your share and share price will be diluted as well like previous chartered semi con till you find no matter how much NOL earn in the future, their pe value is always high due to heavy float of share in the market.

Temasek support NOL just to save job in Singapore and Singapore PSA port. This is like SIA and changi airport strategic plan to maintain a industry competition.

However, be realistic as a shareholder will you invest in this kind of lose making and heavy debt company?


sgng123      ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 04:34) Posted:



when u got temasek as ur financial backer, unlimited source of funding cos all coming from ur CPF money lol.

Can buy the most fuel efficient ships just need temasek to sign off as guarantor which all the banks in the world would gladly take due to the triple A credit of temasek lol. Now the fuel efficient gain by the new ships is showing it power cut down cost by a whopping 240M in a single quarter   excluding the 10% drop in fuel price, how much more can it cut down in 3Q interested to know might knock the cost by another huge amount. lot of shipping companies dream of having a very strong backer like temasek, got the whole of Singapore citizens CPF as backing. Singaporean are cash  rich due to the fact our CPF money got hundred of billions lock in and used by government to generate income, plus all the money lock in by PR contribution too lol. Sadly cash rich but could never touch it till 55 subject to minimum sum lock in for special account.
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sgng123
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11-Aug-2013 04:34     
 
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when u got temasek as ur financial backer, unlimited source of funding cos all coming from ur CPF money lol.

Can buy the most fuel efficient ships just need temasek to sign off as guarantor which all the banks in the world would gladly take due to the triple A credit of temasek lol. Now the fuel efficient gain by the new ships is showing it power cut down cost by a whopping 240M in a single quarter   excluding the 10% drop in fuel price, how much more can it cut down in 3Q interested to know might knock the cost by another huge amount. lot of shipping companies dream of having a very strong backer like temasek, got the whole of Singapore citizens CPF as backing. Singaporean are cash  rich due to the fact our CPF money got hundred of billions lock in and used by government to generate income, plus all the money lock in by PR contribution too lol. Sadly cash rich but could never touch it till 55 subject to minimum sum lock in for special account.
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beginners
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10-Aug-2013 23:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Moreover NOL building already sold to frangrance. What other assets do they still have? Sold away their ships?
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ynnek1267
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10-Aug-2013 22:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A company lose 3 year straight. Raise billion of dollars notes for new vessels, partially pay to losses.

What is next? Right issue and interest.
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sgng123
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10-Aug-2013 21:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		NOL in losses for almost 3 years all due to Europe recession which affects all regions even though Europe do not play a big role in driving growth but European banks drive the money loan globally. In fact world economy should all be in deep recession, STI should be 2000 only if not for the QE money printing effort by Fed Reserve. If QE ended with no recovery in economy activities, prepare for heavy blood bath in stock market, explain why stock markets all get hit when fed reserve indicate it going to wind down money printing in 2H 2014. US central bank QE is what separate us from a very deep economy downturn. Reason why we all interest in NOL, cos ship result is all tied to global economy. When US/Europe economy recovered, ship share price would  surge  in short time  to keep pace with current STI level. NOL performance is trade barometer for export focus Singapore economy, currently stock market/economy distorted due to QE. Ship doing cost cutting and slot cost resetting would place it in very competitive position to gain plump profit when US/Europe recovered which according to economist should be 2014. Not to mention our very smart elitist temasek had dumped in US $4B for fleet renewal and another US$1.5B bank loan to invest in long term ship prospect, follow the government most likely would earn money but need to time it right. IF timed correctly can gain 50% to 200% in return in short time but need very good stock judgment.
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