Latest Forum Topics /
Sri Trang Agro
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Thai Sri Trang sets IPO price at S$1.20
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crystalbee
Veteran |
31-Jul-2020 19:20
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Glad to have an international rubber dealer sharing info  with us here. I believe STA' s profits for Q2 would be much higher than the S$38million for Q1. From STA' s Q1 report, they sold 6.3billion gloves and that is just the start of the pandemic (Jan-Mar). Since their max capacity is 33billion and now at full  capacity they must have sold  8,25billion gloves for Q2 which is 30% increase in volume compared to Q1 and  we have not even considered  increase in selling price. So I can only believe Q2 profits would be much higher than Q1. How much higher....I don' t know...wait to see.  
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woody88
Member |
31-Jul-2020 19:19
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We are initiating coverage on Sri Trang Agro (SGX:NC2) with a Buy rating of $2.45 SGD 12M price target, this represents an upside of 82.8% on the current share price of $1.34 SGD. 1Q/2020 Earnings Review
Investment Thesis
Catalyst
Valuation Our target price of $2.45 SGD was calculated using Discounted Cash Flow by projecting cash flows for a 10 year period. |
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woody88
Member |
31-Jul-2020 19:17
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Sri Trang Agro (SGX:NC2)Updated: 2 hours ago Basic Information Last Close Price: SGD $1.34 12M Target Price: SGD $2.45 SGD +/- Potential: +82.8% Bloomberg Ticker: NC2:SGX https://ddbresearch1.wixsite.com/blog/post/sri-trang-agro-sgx-nc2   |
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limjoeseph
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 18:54
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Thai STA closed at 25.25 baht hitting a morning low of 24.40 baht. I am patient to HUAT!!! | ||||
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limjoeseph
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 18:24
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Dear Friends, Fyi this UOB also available in Thailand. As mentioned, Thai mkt participants do not wish to take unnecessary risks but rather wait for results confirmations to go overweight and that can happen after the 2nd quarters results release which will exceed 1st quarter results but latest UOB report only mentioned 2nd quarters result will be lower than 1st quarters result at 660 miilion baht compared to first quaters at 845 million bahts which I feel very misleading. I am an international rubber dealer and I like to reinterate that STA results 2nd quarters exceed first quarter results by a mile. There are certain privelege info which I have access to which I cannot divulge but I can drop hints that 2nd quarters results will be much better than the first quarters due to STA having profits from their rubber division which UOB post otherwise by just taking taking STA lower rubber revenue to decide their rubber profitability. UOB analyst are not trained rubber dealers who just only generalise on figures which can change from time to time. But as a rubber dealer, I know better than them as to their rubber profitability for a given period basis my indeoth research. You may take my outperform recommendation for STA shares with a pinch of salt but I like to say with my vested interest in STA as a medium term investor, I like all my friends to benefit from STA price rise as well to reap a good profits. Frankly I rather you do your due diligence before buying STA shares as investing is not meant for the faint hearted as no risk no gain. With interest rates so low, better park your excess cash in selected shares which may provide a better return over a period of time. | ||||
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PQTPQK
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 18:19
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So Low in Thai ... only around 1.15
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rlong8288
Master |
31-Jul-2020 17:57
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25.25 +0.45
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stlimst
Master |
31-Jul-2020 17:36
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Thank you Master Longtermer. Yes, I stand corrected - UOB upgraded STA price to Bt42 (S$1.84). If only those market participants at SET read this UOB analyst' s report.  Then again such report is easily availabe and only a click away on the internet - unless such anaylst reports are barred in Thailand - I hope not. Or maybe someone just need to translate to Thai ...... can ask Google lah. Have a good, long weekend.
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PQTPQK
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 17:28
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What the price in Thai today?
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Longtermer
Elite |
31-Jul-2020 17:14
Yells: "A disciplined investor is a wealthy investor" |
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Just a re cap on the last Analysts report by UOB.. The TP was upgraded to $1.84.. Looking fwd to the coming results.. Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA TB) UOB KayHian 2Q20 Results Preview: Quarterly Earnings To Have Bottomed For The Year   STA 2Q20 earnings are likely to be weaker than we had previously expected owing to the surge in raw material prices in late May-Jun 20 which pressured gross margins in the natural rubber business. However, 2H20 earnings could double hoh thanks to improvements in the natural rubber business and a very strong showing from the glove business. We have revised up our 2020-23 earnings projections by 16-39%. Maintain BUY with a new target price of    Bt42.00 (S$1.84)   WHATS NEW 2Q20 earnings to come in as the bottom for this year. We expect Sri Trang Agro- Industry (STA) 2Q20 earnings to come in at Bt660m, jumping 144% yoy from an especially low base in 2Q19 but reflecting a 23% qoq decline on a weaker performance from the natural rubber business. 2Q20 sales are expected to come in flat yoy but down 6% qoq on the lockdown of cities across the globe. 2Q20& rsquo s gross margin should come in at 14%, improving from 10% in 2Q19. However, 2Q20 gross margin should be flat qoq with the glove business& rsquo expectedly wider gross margin in 2Q20 offsetting the lower gross margins from the natural rubber business (as a result of the surge in local raw material prices in late- May-Jun 20 during which rubber supply was low).   STOCK IMPACT Glove business outlook to remain promising till 2021. Management expects ASPs to increase by 10-15% qoq in 2Q20 and ASPs in 3Q20 to increase by a larger degree of > 15% qoq. This is because the company is expected to actuate a new pricing policy where it will raise prices aggressively in 3Q20 so that ASPs in the quarter would be about the same as that in 4Q20. This is targeted at accelerating profit growth in 3Q20. It also expects ASPs in 4Q20 to come in flat qoq. Note that in Jul 20, the nitrile glove prices were set at US$60.00/1,000 pieces and latex glove prices were set at US$42.00/1,000 pieces (glove ASP in 1Q20 was at US$19.50/1,000 pieces)   Besides this, management believes glove demand will remain strong until 1H21. In addition, management guided that its glove business& rsquo gross margin would not be lower than that recorded in 1Q20 (19%) even after the COVID-19 outbreak subsides & minus mainly thanks to economies of scale on capacity expansion. In the long-term, the company projects glove demand in emerging countries would be solid due to the very low glove consumption per capita vs that of developed countries (US: 150 pieces per capita Thailand 20 pieces per capita, China 10 pieces per capita and Africa 4 pieces per capita).   2H20 earnings to double on a hoh basis. 2H20 earnings are likely to double from 1H20 earnings. The key drivers would be: a) an improvement in the natural rubber business as local raw material prices are now declining on seasonally larger market output and b) huge earnings contribution from Sri Trang Gloves (STGT) due to an ASP jump.   EARNINGS REVISION/RISK We have revised up our 2020-21 earnings projections as tabulated below. We have a more positive outlook towards the glove and natural rubber businesses for 2H20 and onwards.   VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt42.00, based on SOTP valuation. We have pegged a valuation of 7x 2021F PE (below the stock 10 year mean at 13x) to the natural rubber business and 21x 2021F PE (in line with competitor Kossan Rubber Industry 5-year mean PE of 21x) to the glove business.   |
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stlimst
Master |
31-Jul-2020 17:02
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I have been asking this question (why the price of STA in SET never really move much after the hugely successful IPO of STGT) since the day I bought into STA. Till now, still no answer. The closest logic was that the market participants are the voters - they collectively see that the value of STA  to be worth Tb25 (the current price of STA in SET). OK, now Bro limjoseph  has offered another logic - that market  needs to validare this  undervalue stock only after the Q2 results are out - just so to confirm the real value of STA. This is a good enough answer - that all market participants are so not convinced of the great 2Q result of STA (incorporating STGT) that they need to see to believe. That could explain why as of today, there' s only only 1 house (UOB Kay Hian) that gave a $1.78 target to STA! All right, if everyone needs to see the actual Q2 results first before committing, then so be it. I will hold on to my lots until then. Good luck to me.
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cookiemonster
Member |
31-Jul-2020 16:58
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I believe so, that the thais behaviour is different The thais are not so kiasu like singaporeans So surge will come only after results release Let' s wait and see :)
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limjoeseph
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 16:47
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Let me share with you that Thai mkt particpants will rather wait for confirmed release of strong earnings on 14 14 August to exceed the 1st quarter results before going overweight on STA just like before the 1st quarter result release most international rubber dealers and other Thai rubber producers with vested interest in STA knew about STA results and yet mkt during that time was not fiery but lethargic. It was only after the confirmed earnings release, that analysts started to do re-rating on STA shares that the price started to rally thereafter. This counter is only testing investors' nerve but patience to sit it out will pay off only after the 14 August result release. | ||||
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limjoeseph
Supreme |
31-Jul-2020 16:39
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Insider says if the mkt wants to give you free money for STA at a undervalued price of 24.6 baht this morning, better grab it before before too late. This counter is destined to fly after 2nd quarter results release. Most Spore investors think STA is a rubber company only but I have penned in a blog that they are mistaken. The only global company with rubber and gloves outfits. An unappreciated counter which will become a shining star after 2nd quarters results. Minimum target previous all time high in 2011 at 41.2 Baht due to high rubber price but this time hitting the 41.2 all high again due to strong earnings from fully 100% contributions from gloves division for 2nd quater reporting on august 14. Thereafter for every quarter, 56% from spinned off STGT IPO. Gloves profits from STGT for the peroid July to Sept will be huge. As such, STA presently a buy for a hold for the rest of the year. 1st half 2021 for Sing STA target at S$3.22 (Fibonacci 1.618% extension ) or Thai STA at 73.50 Baht. Stay long to Huat with me as I am a medium term investor. If my initial target of 41.2 Baht is not met, I will stay long to enjoy the next interim dividend to be given out as advised by insider!!! | ||||
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Leon1954
Member |
31-Jul-2020 16:38
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Everyone is touting this share as undervalued and a sure win. My Q is: Why is STA still trading at 25B (S$1.10) on Thai Stock Exchange today? Are the Thais not able to see its real value? Or are we Singaporeans so euphoric that we can' t see something missing in this company that Thai insiders can see? Something just doesn' t look right with the consistent price disparity over the past few weeks.    I am just asking Qs. Maybe someone can give some good explantions. I wish I know the answer cos I am much vested here!!  |
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3dw1nchu4
Veteran |
31-Jul-2020 16:14
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Hell yeah! Compared to the rest, STA still has the most meat left. The rest are great, but probably has less upside than this. Vested in a couple of them and sta too  ![]()
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Longtermer
Elite |
31-Jul-2020 15:57
Yells: "A disciplined investor is a wealthy investor" |
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Glove companies riding on the current strong demands all over the world, are doing exceedingly well!. With 1 million cases reported every 4 to 5 days together with more countries locking down due to 2nd and 3rd waves, the needs are unprecedented and explosive.. Looking at the 4 gloves companies in SGX.. UG Healthcare (Capacity 3B gloves, OBM company) March avg price: 22c Today: $2.54  ( up 1054% ) TP $3 and $2.70 Top Glove (Capacity 75B gloves, Biggest glove company in the world) March avg price: $1.90 Today $8.45  ( up 345% ) TP $9.50 and $9.25 Riverstone (Capacity 9B gloves, to increase to 10.5B this year) March avg price: $1.00 Today $3.76  ( up 276% ) TP $3.90 (2x) and $3.60 Sri Trang Agro (Capacity 32B gloves, Biggest rubber company in the world) March avg price: 50c Today $1.31  ( up 162% ) TP $1.78 and $1.84 Just 2 cents.. From the above, STA 162% increase seems to be lagging the other 3 companies. This is Not rational as the coming profits for the 32B capacity subsidiary is definitely under-rated nor appreciated.  Q1 has nett profits of 854 baht with relatively low profit coming from glove division imo.. What will be Q2 profits when the peak Apr to June numbers are in? The glove orders are also lined up till mid 2021 with spiked selling prices..  Reiterate that this counter is deeply under valued and likely to see it trending up when and after the results are out. Hold longer guys.. it may be another UG! Vested much. Dyodd and huat!   |
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stlimst
Master |
31-Jul-2020 13:37
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Next week we enter into the much anticipated Q2 reporting for most of the companies. Judging for those Malaysian glove companies that have reported earnings last week, there share price performance is very good , ie the stock prices surged after reporting and continue to rise. If we can take that as a guide, the prices of Riverstone, UG and Top Glove should go further north.  As for STA....hmmm.... With the recent price rebounding, STA is, at least, worth another look. I have mentioned before that based on conventional financial analysis, STA is undervalued and should be at a much higher price given the current business demands of their products ...especially the gloves that subsidary STGT prroduces. The market has voted and thankfully, STA managed to rebound. I invested in a  small holding bought in June at 1.28 intending to hold through the Q2 reporting. But was so frustrated with the share price movement that I sold off at $1.30 to breakeven. With the approaching result reporting, I still want to beleive in conventional wisdom. So to show conviction,  I bought back my 5 lots at 1.28 yesterday. I just want to see how the market is voting with the pending good results. This time round, I will lower my own target price to $1.78. Let' s see!!!   |
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123Sang
Senior |
30-Jul-2020 23:44
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RS, MT, UG all steady during the bloodbath this morning....so buy  in some STA when it was down....  | ||||
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Jeanny
Member |
30-Jul-2020 20:37
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Thank you limjoesph. It' s comforting to get some reassurance.  Vested quite a bit but my ave is 1.40.  Yes, let' s be patient.  
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