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aragosta Supreme	26-Jul-2024 10:15        aragosta About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell"
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	To a shareholder question of an interim or increase in dividend, young Ren gave a very eloquent answer of a need to preserve cash for the execution multitudes of orders..... he also explained he prefers to build on increasing the roe for shareholders, which I will elaborate later....... although he did not exactly said no to an interim, there is strong market speculation now that it may be given, given the expected excellent results....... and as I often suggest, the resilience of the price in the midst of market volatility, means the divestment plans are very much alive, question is whether it will involve its disowned son...... as always, dyodddd, as sometimes gangsters may juz said something nice when they are in good mood........
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Panda8 Veteran	26-Jul-2024 09:48        Panda8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No SGX  annoucement also can chiong..... congra 4 your smart purchased.... kt3152      ( Date: 23-Jul-2024 10:30) Posted: No SGX announcement no power to chiong up??....got 230 from ML this morning.....
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SgYuan Supreme	26-Jul-2024 08:48        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	SGX Penny Stocks (EW Charts by sgYuan): yzj day wb up 61.8 240 hit 243 chance higher for a uturn up yzj 1h wabc up wa up hit 243 wb dn 61.8 234 px hit 237 242 238 240 dn 24.6 239 hold best dn 38.2 237 dn 61.8 234 cannot breakdn this if hold wc up px need to breakup 243 then wc 249
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Panda8 Veteran	26-Jul-2024 07:25        Panda8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thank you for your information and hardwork
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Winnertakeall Elite	25-Jul-2024 17:23        Winnertakeall About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2024 (Q2) results within 3 weeks if follow last year announcements          SG:BS6 Earnings History Report Date Fiscal Quarter EPS YoY Change Aug 12, 2023 2023 (Q2) 46.64%
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pkli899 Supreme	24-Jul-2024 09:26        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Further to below. The contract value is USD110m per vessel. Means total is USD440m. pkli899      ( Date: 22-Jul-2024 19:47) Posted: Another contract won! Nissen Kaiun order four 88,000 cu.m ammonia carriers to be delivered between May 2028 to Feb 2029.
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SgYuan Supreme	23-Jul-2024 10:49        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	yzj day dn fib 78.6 229 hit 228 and uturn change to wabc dn wa hit 229 wb up 61.8 240 hit 38.2 235 see if can hit and breakup if cannot then wc dn continues
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kt3152 Supreme	23-Jul-2024 10:30        kt3152 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No SGX announcement no power to chiong up??....got 230 from ML this morning.....
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emailpeter Veteran	23-Jul-2024 09:24        emailpeter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Messrs @pkli & other focussed proponents, you might enjoy being enlightened that YZJ Shipbuilding crosses the SGD10b mark at $2.55. Let's await this momentus occasion !!! Cheers
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Panda8 Veteran	23-Jul-2024 09:06        Panda8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do you want to telephone the marker maker to follow your chart? They are so bad ...... SgYuan      ( Date: 19-Jul-2024 21:09) Posted: yzj day dn 14.6 244 breakdn px dn 61.8 233 hit 231 support dn 61.8 233 px need to pullback support prev low 224 support wc dn 218
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emailpeter Veteran	23-Jul-2024 08:59        emailpeter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Green Ammonia just became "Red-Hot". Wow !!!! Thanks everyone here on updating progress. SB is riding a new wave that attracts a wider oriented set of institutional funds. Progressive profits drives shares...
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Winnertakeall Elite	23-Jul-2024 07:41        Winnertakeall About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding breaks into VLGC segment with order from  Japanese heavy weight Japanese shipowner has ordered four newbuildings against charter contracts from BGN 22 July 2024 21:30 GMT Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has broken into the red-hot very large ammonia carrier segment with a deal worth around $440m.  Industry sources following Yangzijiang shipbuilding activities said the Singapore-listed shipyard has struck a deal with Nessin Kalun of Japan for 88,000 cbm vessels.   pkli899      ( Date: 22-Jul-2024 19:47) Posted: Another contract won! Nissen Kaiun order four 88,000 cu.m ammonia carriers to be delivered between May 2028 to Feb 2029.
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pkli899 Supreme	22-Jul-2024 19:47        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 0  Alert Admin	Another contract won! Nissen Kaiun order four 88,000 cu.m ammonia carriers to be delivered between May 2028 to Feb 2029.
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SgYuan Supreme	19-Jul-2024 21:09        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	yzj day dn 14.6 244 breakdn px dn 61.8 233 hit 231 support dn 61.8 233 px need to pullback support prev low 224 support wc dn 218
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pkli899 Supreme	19-Jul-2024 20:58        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sorry, a little confusing. I mean contract value is about USD850m for 5 ships.
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pkli899 Supreme	19-Jul-2024 20:55        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is confirmed each yard gets 5. Value is said to be USD170m each. YZJ will deliver this 5 ships between 2027 to 2028. pkli899      ( Date: 18-Jul-2024 20:46) Posted: Ocean Network Express (ONE)  has ordered 10 methanol dual-fuel 13,000 teu boxships  at YZJ & Jiangnan Shipyard. Each yard get what number and at what price still unsure. Will find out and update here accordingly.
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emailpeter Veteran	19-Jul-2024 11:15        emailpeter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Like you, I accumulated more at every big drop in price. While the short sellers are shaking us off. Hope you are LT like many here, and do study 1H results in 3 weeks time. And enjoy your stay here thru this company's golden boom spanning next 5 years or more. If one finds the results promising and progressing, you have time to gradually increase holdings. Strong progressive profits drives shares.... kt3152      ( Date: 18-Jul-2024 16:21) Posted: Bought some at 2.36.....
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Lswoowoo Senior	19-Jul-2024 10:25        Lswoowoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	YZJ share price dropped back to 2.31 now. Is it good entry point at 2.30? Queue 2.30 to buy 50 lots. Huat ah!
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pkli899 Supreme	19-Jul-2024 10:11        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My respect to you, Smallboat1021. No word to describe the effort you put in. If you don' t make money is.......天 没 眼 ！
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Smallboat1021 Member	18-Jul-2024 22:39        Smallboat1021 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do not like to talk shit only. Let the track record talk for itself.  Raise FY24 earnings to RMB 6bn+, and  FY25 earning to RMB 7bn+, FY26 for 8bn+ and FY27 for 10bn+. TP set for SGD 3 by YE2024, and SGD 5 by YE2026. Leave the words as record.   Smallboat1021      ( Date: 06-Mar-2024 23:50) Posted: Just to remark my analysis one year ago......2023E profit of RMB4,065mn vs actual result of RMB4,102mn Shame on brokers......who just stingily raised their NP estimates to 4.5bn~5.0bn in 2024/25. They just have no idea how to calculate Given favorable FX/steel price/shipping rate and accelerating delivery, I raise up my NP forecast to RMB 5.5bn in 2024 and RMB  6.5bn in 2025 Let' s check, YZJ will report > 2.5bn NP in 24H1 result    Smallboat1021      ( Date: 09-Mar-2023 12:05) Posted: Let&rsquo s focus on fundamentals: YZJSH is on the runway to double its profits in 3 years, beat consensus by 100%   Hey guys, I have been lurking in this forum for 2 years. As a big fan of YZJ, feel a little disappointed that, apart from order update, daily trade update and news update, you can seldom find any in-depth analysis/discussion about the company&lsquo s fundamentals in this so-called most professional stock forum in Singapore. Hence, I decide to raise up the analysis on the fundamentals/financials. Hope to 抛 砖 引 玉 and you bright guys not to be shy to share views on fundamentals.   I do not want to make clickbait, but I am shocked at how pre-mature the market&rsquo s understanding on YZJSH is. Compared to this forum, the coverage brokers&rsquo research on YZJSH makes me even more disappointed and suspect that they did not do any analysis or do not understand shipbuilding at all.   Firstly I will come up with a table show the Bloomberg consensus estimates of 4 shipbuilding companies (YZJ, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Mipo Dockyard) as of today. I do not have too much opposition on the revenue side (despite YZJ&rsquo s 2025E revenue down by 6% weirdly) given the 3+ year orderbook coverage now for tier one shipbuilders (YZJ currently has USD 11b orderbook with annual delivery capacity of 3+bn) and rising trend of newbuilding contract price since 2021. However, the misleading parts is, when other shipbuilders are expected to see a ~10pct margin improvement in the comings 3 years, Singapore analysts only would like to give a stingy flat net margin of 13% to YZJ. Who should I believe in? The sector specialists in China and Korea? Or the formality-driven generalists in Singapore?    Bloomberg consensus as of 2023/03/08   Unit 2022A/E 2023E 2024E 2025E YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             24,168 yoy     20% 4% -6% YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 3,213                 3,440                 3,133 NP Margin   13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.0%   CSSC Revenue RMB mn             63,944             80,213             90,901   NA    yoy     25% 13%   CSSC Net Profit RMB mn                 1,494                 3,278                 7,173   NA    NPM   2.3% 4.1% 7.9%     HHI Revenue KRW bn                 9,046             11,338             13,342             16,294 yoy     25% 18% 22% HHI Net Profit KRW bn                     -352                       234                       584                 1,473 NPM   -3.9% 2.1% 4.4% 9.0%   HMD Revenue KRW bn                 3,717                 4,098                 4,521                 4,986 yoy     10% 10% 10% HMD Net Profit KRW bn                         -45                       133                       268                       369 NPM   -1.2% 3.3% 5.9% 7.4% So where will YZJ&rsquo s margin really goes to? Here is my rough analysis. Firstly, on the newbuilding price side, the shipbuilding price increased by 25+% from 2020 to now, and normally 2-3 years from contracting to delivery. That said, YZJ&rsquo s revenue in 2022 mostly reflected the low price orders contracted in 2020, and we can expected the 25+% increase in price to be recognized in revenue in 2025 and later. By tracing back the contracting date of YZJ&rsquo s future deliveries, I estimate YZJ&rsquo s recognized price in 23/24/25 will be 3%/13%/20% higher than 2022. Since YZJ hedged most of the FX exposure, I just ignore the FX impact here (which actually tend to be favorable due to USD appreciation).   Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 126.37 133.31 137.80 130.98 122.62 124.88 130.01 129.77 125.60 153.63 161.84 Secondly, the largest part of cost comes to steel, which accounts for ~25% of revenue (~30% of cost). Over the past 12 months, steel price dropped from peak level of 6000+RMB/ton to a normalized 4500-5000 RMB. YZJ has secured most of its steel procurement in 2023 at the price of less than 5000, ~20% lower than the purchase price for 2022. So, only the steel price drop can lead to a 20%*25%=5pct upside in pre-tax margin. Going forward, given the weak demand of China property, there are unlikely to see steel price hike and the company also estimates the price to stabilize at ~5,000. So the margin upsides in 2024/25 of 4-5pct due to steel price can also be expected.   China Shipbuilding Steel Plate Price - RMB/ton   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY2020 4,315 4,233 4,172 4,080 4,102 4,233 4,266 4,320 4,306 4,306 4,321 4,764 FY2021 4,922 4,906 5,410 6,033 6,637 6,110 6,093 6,108 6,172 6,338 6,000 5,700 FY2022 5,550 5,610 5,660 5,710 5,680 5,600 5,180 4,810 4,660 4,610 4,540 4,660 FY2023 4,640 4,790                     Thirdly, the costs of ship equipment and engines account for another ~30% of revenue. The price of such goods changes proportionally with ship price. That said, we can expect 30% * 3%/13%/20% = 1%/4%/6% increase in cost due to equipment and engines in 23/24/25. Lastly, cables, paints, labors, utilities, and depreciation together account for the remaining ~30% of revenue. The prices for these factors are mostly stable, and we can even expect some scale effect. But to leave the margin of safety, let us just say they keep flat. Then, to sum up, the net margin upsides in 2023 will be [3%(price)+5%(steel)-1%(equipment)]/[1+3%(price)]*[1-20%(tax)]=5.4pct. Do the same calculation for 2024/25, the net margin upsides vs. 2022 will be 9.0pct/12.0pct. Above is analysis for shipbuilding margin, but YZJ also have other business like shipping. In 2022, other businesses contributed ~RMB 2.3bn revenue and 0.8bn profits (mainly shipping and some loan business pre-spinoff), the core shipbuilding margin was ~11%. So the &ldquo real&rdquo net margin of core-shipbuilding business for 23/24/25 shall be 16.4%/20%/23%. To be simplify, let us assume other business has the same margin as shipbuilding (actually much higher historically), then the net margin for 23/24/25 should be at least 16.4%/20.0%/23.0%. The 25E estimated margin of 23% is 9.4pct higher than 2022, which is similar to the market expected upsides of YZJ&rsquo s peers.   Let&rsquo s see by how much our estimates beat the consensus. I would take market estimation of revenue for 2023/24 but uplift the 2025E revenue because there is no reason to see a drop in revenue given the fulfilled yard till 2H2026 and rising ship price. Taking my &ldquo real&rdquo estimated margin into calculation, YZJ will generate RMB 4bn/5bn/6bn in 23/24/25, beat consensus by 27%/50%/99%. I do not think my estimation is inflated, but again shocked at how ridiculous the brokers&rsquo estimates are. Do they even follow the sector?   Bloomberg consensus as of 2023/03/08   Unit 2022A/E 2023E 2024E 2025E YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             24,168 yoy     20% 4% -6% YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 3,213                 3,440                 3,133 NP Margin   13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.0% " Real" estimates YZJ Revenue RMB mn             20,705             24,789             25,752             27,040 yoy     20% 4% 5% YZJ Net Profit RMB mn                 2,807                 4,065                 5,150                 6,219 NP Margin   13.6% 16.4% 20.0% 23.0% +/- % vs consensus     26.5% 49.7% 98.5%   So guys, now you know what a chance you are facing to. The company now has a market cap of SGD 5.2bn, with 2bn net cash + debt investment on hand, and will earn another 3bn in the coming 3 years. That means you can get the most profitable shipbuilder, a cash generating machine for free after 2025. What&rsquo s more, the new order boom is yet to vanish. Containerships only take up 20% value of global vessels, the dominating parts of bulker and tanker orders are still on the way. Given YZJ&rsquo s USD 3bn order win target for 2023, we can expect the yard to be fulfilled till 2027 by this year. And the newbuilding price keep going north, YZJ&rsquo s earnings could still increase on the high base of 2025&hellip &hellip   The conquest of the ship is the sea of stars!
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