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gopguppy
Veteran |
01-Oct-2018 11:48
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Axiata may want higher price for M1 buyout: Kenanga Research
 
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By NST Business - September 28, 2018 @ 5:45pm
KUALA LUMPUR: Axiata Group Bhd appears less keen about accepting a cash offer from Keppel Corp Ltd (KCL) and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) to buy out its 28.7 per cent-owned M1, the smallest telecommunication company in Singapore, Kenanga Research said. This raised the prospect of the offerors increasing a S$2.06 per share offer price to get Axiata&rsquo s support.The S$2.06 is a 26 per cent premium to M1&rsquo s last traded price, valuing the telecommunication company at S$1.9 billion. &ldquo Axiata appeared less sanguine on the offer and we do not discount the offeror could raise the offer price to get the former&rsquo s support,&rdquo Kenanga Research said in a report today. The firm said the offer price was merely 6.2 per cent higher than Axiata&rsquo s M1 book value per share of S$1.94 as of the end of its second quarter 2018. &ldquo Based on the past 5-year merger and acquisition deals in Singapore&rsquo s telecommunication sector, the median of the targeted company&rsquo s earnings multiplies stood at 8.8 times, thus suggested that Axiata&rsquo s M1 stake could be potentially worth up to S$2.88 per share,&rdquo it added. KCL and SPH are seeking majority control of M1 in a deal worth up to S$1.28 billion. KCL currently has 19.33 per cent stake through Keppel T& T while SPH owned 13.45 per cent stake in M1. Both companies and their related parties have deemed interest of 33.27 per cent in M1, which has a market capitalisation of S$1.51 billion. The offer has to be approved by the Info-communications Media Development Authority and will become unconditional when the offerer and its concerted parties obtain more than 50 per cent stake. Axiata had responded to the pre-conditional offer, saying that it should reflect the accurate future value of M1 (inclusive of an acceptable control premium), consistent with market standards. M1 has a customer base of 2.16 million (62 per cent in postpaid) as of the end of the first half, implying 23.6 per cent subscriber market share. Kenanga Research said competition was expected to escalate in Singapore, following Australia&rsquo s TPG Telecom&rsquo s plan to launch services after winning a license to become the fourth telecommunication operator in the city-state. The firm said M1&rsquo s contribution to Axiata had been relatively stagnant, in the recent years, due to stiff competition. Its turnover improved marginally by one per cent year-on-year to S$507 million in the first half with net profit of S$71 million (up 0.7 per cent YoY). Kenanga Research kept its &ldquo market perform&rdquo tag on Axiata with an unchanged target price of RM4.80. |
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cann777
Member |
01-Oct-2018 10:21
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dun read too much, maybe keppel pay them to write the article one... u nvr know... just map out ur own thoughts, stick to ur own believe
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
01-Oct-2018 10:14
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My sense is, a bit hard leh.  According to a local piece I was reading this morning, Konnectivity' s aim  is merely seeking majority control.  But of course, they might end up with more if others throw in.  So, unless Asiata mounts a bidding war, there might not be the excitement we are all hoping for.  N Asiata wldn' t try it cos of the very tough env currently facing the industry.  Asiata will of course make all the noise to try to get a better deal.  N if they do, minorities wld stand to gain from a more respectable pricing.  But chances are it might not happen.  DYODD as always. 
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mrwise
Supreme |
01-Oct-2018 10:02
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My target takeover price is $2.3 and above.. This is going to be a tough fight....   |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
30-Sep-2018 19:50
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I understand ur pt, n agree with u.  But many a time, some counters remain solid n people might have invested in them at higher px based on sound fundamentals, only for the px to drop due to poor sentiment or, worse, manipulation.  N I don' t rule out unscrupulous major owners deliberately engineering the px down just to privatise cheap.  Who is to know?    As we perennially hear until sick these days, the IFA advice wld go like, " offer is not fair but reasonable since the share had traded at x before offer n offer is x+20% (say), bla bla bla ...... " .  This is the kind of situation we need to sympathise with those who seem to be having their shares robbed from them ...
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AttasBoss
Elite |
30-Sep-2018 19:31
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Sadly this is part of investing journey, nowadays long term holding doesnt mean sure win.
But of coz must always review own portfolio down the road, industry discruption, financial performance. M1 share price drop till lowest now is not within a short period, it is dropping over 3 years.. Most importantly lesson learn, there is no such thing as forever bluechip
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ryanon123
Member |
30-Sep-2018 16:12
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only partly agree. they also say this is a chance for those who cannot wait and opportunity to get out now. but i think most m1 shareholders are long term investor so actually can wait. but as long they dont cross 90% then everyone still have a choice to make. Still believe it to be too low, those looking long term probably will not sell. the offer above current price is just like 3-5 years dividends. different position i guess but admit very attractive to those who wants to cover loss.
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AttasBoss
Elite |
30-Sep-2018 13:48
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If their intention is not to privatise m1 but increase the stakes, the price usually will drop after the offer expire..
So m1 holders must read carefully the offer doc, even if their intention is to delist, there is chances that there will not be revision of price given that the dropping perfomance of m1 recent years.
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Know-Your-Stuff
Senior |
30-Sep-2018 12:44
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The offer price is fixed for now. For those who bought at higher prices, it will not make a difference even if there is no higher offer. The worst case is a mandatory takeover and they surrender their shares at $2.06. The price cannot be lowered. So i think aviod hasty and panic selling is a better strategy now. However, holding out may minimise the losses or even turn a profit fot those who bought high, depending on the price if there is a counter offer which i am betting on after some reading and thoughts.  Ultimately its your own decision and money.
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Know-Your-Stuff
Senior |
30-Sep-2018 12:33
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He has lost his credibiltiy because this is the SECOND time he is pushing his own personal agenda....commissions. Can only lie once, after that clients will become very wary. Just wonder if should send his messages (to me) to MAS. He probably went around using the same fear technique on Friday and netted a handsome commission from M1. For M1, I am fine to hold and just collect the 5 to 6% dividend for a long time unless the offer is fair. Its IOT initiatives are gaining traction and should bear fruits a few years down the road.
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cann777
Member |
30-Sep-2018 10:31
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wow.... ur remiser jialat leh... my broker is the other way round, tell me show hand n hoot more.... hahahahaha i told him, i will add only at prices i am comfortable with.......... even no deal i can sit n collect my divdends :)
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AttasBoss
Elite |
30-Sep-2018 09:08
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If there is no offer for 2.06, those bought higher suffer even bigger losses, should thanks kc and sph.
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investshare
Supreme |
30-Sep-2018 08:37
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Right, bad for many who bought higher than $2.4. But that?s part of investment risk.
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pasttime
Supreme |
30-Sep-2018 08:29
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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investment type of thingy. there is no sure profit or lost. no one responsive for other losses/gain except for one himself. for keppy and sph they are also same same. if they sell sure want to sell high high. buy sure want to buy dirt cheap. cheaperest better. so do they need to explain ? remember they only say want to offer. subject to..... no offer yet right?
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
29-Sep-2018 19:11
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Aiay, Wheelock different mah.  KC SPH soon the minorities' champion will appear to wayang to get better offer.  Wheelock no one will bother to support minorities cos hongkies very cunning one leh .....
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ryanon123
Member |
29-Sep-2018 17:07
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Need SPH and Keppel to explain. They said back then there were some interested partiea but they felt thr offer was not good enough. What was some of the offers received back then? Can they tell us? If it is higher then what they are offering $2.06 thrn i say they did not act in the interest of shareholders.
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
29-Sep-2018 16:21
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Yes - SPH can sell to Axiata at $2.50 too - smart ploy.
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AttasBoss
Elite |
29-Sep-2018 12:37
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Keppel holder want buy m1 cheap cheap
M1 holder want sell ex ex Fighting! |
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Know-Your-Stuff
Senior |
29-Sep-2018 11:52
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Brokerages ask retail to accept using remeisers in full force to ask their clients to sell. To earn more commissions and make their year end closing a merry one. So beware and question their motivations. Dont sell now and regret later when a higher offer surface. This Sgx mkt is rigged. Offeror rejected higher offer when price was around $2.30 by China Mobile last year and now say $2.06 is good value for retail to exit. Who are they trying to kid ? Does it makes sense? I am vested in profit and is not accepting the low offer. Daiwa and some MAL brokerages have done quite a good analysis with an offer of $2.50 they thnk may happen as Axiata is working some parties to counter offer according to their source. Axiata is the largest Telco in Malaysia with telco biz presence in 10 countries and market cap in excess of $10B. Parent is Kazanahal Holding, Malaysia SWF which also owns Petronas. Flushed with oil money in rising oil price. To me Axiata is similar to SingTel except smaller. Yet my remeiser can tell me Axiata is Not a telco company, very small and dont know how to manage telco and it will not buy M1. Keep telling me to sell. Lying like a pro for his own personal gain. See the ethics here? M1 share price moved stronger above offer price with very high volume whilr Axiata price drop 3%. To me this means both the market and Axiata shareholders and maybe some insiders think a higher counter offer is coming. Be patient, dont panic or trust cowboys stories. Just sharing my analysis and thoughts. Ultimately its still your decision but I am not selling. | ||||
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ysh2006
Supreme |
29-Sep-2018 11:46
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Wheellock if follow go Holland loh... I supposed KC & SPH  not so generious har...Malaysian Tycoon maybe also no money due to 1MDB too!
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