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Latest Forum Topics / SIA    Last:6.97    -0.08  Post Reply
SIA revived
SembMarineLong
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08-Jun-2021 20:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Long to enjoy

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 20:20) Posted:

All of us have different cost when we buy shares. 
You can do your own simple calcuations
To buy MCB and keep for 9 years is not cheap. 
The sum of money can be used for other purposes.
It is also not worth to sell current share to take up MCB, as the same amount of money can be leverage 3.33 times using margin.
However, MCB gives an opportunity for non shareholders, eg those who have sold at a loss at $6 + and vow never to buy even if $3, to buy back at lower price
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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 20:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		All of us have different cost when we buy shares. 
You can do your own simple calcuations
To buy MCB and keep for 9 years is not cheap. 
The sum of money can be used for other purposes.
It is also not worth to sell current share to take up MCB, as the same amount of money can be leverage 3.33 times using margin.
However, MCB gives an opportunity for non shareholders, eg those who have sold at a loss at $6 + and vow never to buy even if $3, to buy back at lower price
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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 20:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What is the true cost of owning SIA shares?

1) Before the pandemic

Assuming an investor bought 2000 SIA shares at $10 long before the pandemic.
The share price fell to $6.  He made a paper loss of $8000
He did not sell but took up the rights and held the shares till now
His total share is now ( 2000 + 3000 new shares) = 5000 shares . The cost is reduced by the rights to ( 2000 x $10 + 3000 x $3 ) / 5 = $5.80 per share

2) He took up the full alotment of First MCB - 2000 / 100 x 295 = 5900 SIA MCB
This cost him $5900
On 8 June 2030 his MCB will increase to 5900 x 1.80611 = 10656 SIA MCB
He can convert to SIA shares. The number of shares he get is 10656 / 4.84 = 2201 shares

3) With his current 5000 SIA shares at hand, he is going to take up the full alotment of second MCB.
He is entitled to 5000 / 100 x 209 = 10450 SIA MCB (2021)
This cost him $10450
On 8 June 2030 his MCB will increase to 10450 x 1.69797 = 17743 SIA MCB ( 2021)
He can convert to SIA shares and receive 17743 / 4.84 = 3665 shares

4) In total he will have 2201 + 3665 = 5866 new SIA shares on 8 June 2030
The apparent cost of these new shares is ( $5900 + $10450 ) / 5866 = $2.787
However if he had placed his money in CPF, instead of MCB, he would have gained compound interests. The compound binennial 4% for 10 years on $5900 will increase the anmount to $8767.09. The compound bennial 4% for 9 years on $10450 will increase the amount to $14925.17. The true total cost for his MCB is $8767.09 + $14925.17 = $23,692.26. 
The true cost of his new SIA shares is $23,692.26 / 5866 = $4.0389

5) His total cost of shares is (2000 x $10) + (3000 x $3) + $23692.26 = $52,692.26
After the rights and MCB dilution, his cost of SIA shares is $52,692.26 / ( 5000 + 5866 ) = $4.849

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:10) Posted:

It's not my view..Market is signalling support at 4.86 / 4.87 I will be doing a presentation of my calculation later.

RL16EGG      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 12:44) Posted:

investor999

Your view seem to be price is very unlikely to go to 4.5c. 4.8 range seems good


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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 16:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		May I ask have you sold all your SIA shares? Did you open short position on SIA shares? My position is very clear to you. I am long on SIA and added more shares

Sparrow999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 16:12) Posted:

SIA gone case already so much debts how to clear?
SATS looks more sexy now. No debts, cash flow no issue and total shares volume is low easier to push
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Sparrow999
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08-Jun-2021 16:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I predict SATS share price will overtake SIA in a few months time 
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SembMarineLong
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08-Jun-2021 16:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Dont worry, they are funded. 



Long to enjoy

Sparrow999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 16:12) Posted:

SIA gone case already so much debts how to clear?
SATS looks more sexy now. No debts, cash flow no issue and total shares volume is low easier to push
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Sparrow999
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08-Jun-2021 16:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I see SATS has better position than SIA now. Comparing both, SATS has better prospect than SIA in long term 
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Sparrow999
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08-Jun-2021 16:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Earnings cuts, on the other hand, were led by Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Genting Singapore. The cuts at City Developments Limited (CDL) and CapitaLand were likely driven by slower-than-expected recovery in the hospitality sector.

Sparrow999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 16:18) Posted:

DBS lifts STI year-end target by 4.5% to 3,325 sees recent share price correction as last chance to buy

Should international borders be opened by the year-end, SATS, as well as hospitality REITs such as CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) will stand to benefit as well.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/singapore-economy/dbs-lifts-sti-year-end-target-45-3325-sees-recent-share-price-correction
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Sparrow999
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08-Jun-2021 16:18     
 
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 Alert Admin

DBS lifts STI year-end target by 4.5% to 3,325 sees recent share price correction as last chance to buy

Should international borders be opened by the year-end, SATS, as well as hospitality REITs such as CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) will stand to benefit as well.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/singapore-economy/dbs-lifts-sti-year-end-target-45-3325-sees-recent-share-price-correction
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Eyxm86
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08-Jun-2021 16:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		investor999 and.sparrow 999 both 999 but so.extreme
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Sparrow999
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08-Jun-2021 16:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SIA gone case already so much debts how to clear?
SATS looks more sexy now. No debts, cash flow no issue and total shares volume is low easier to push
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SembMarineLong
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08-Jun-2021 14:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Indeed, it' s gonna be a slow recovery but it will recover. Share price is rather stable this two weeks,



Long to enjoy



 

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 14:05) Posted:

Most people here have a short term view..Then there are those who bought cheap and worried their profits are gone..Therefore this uptrend is slow and gradual..
Many are sidelined waiting for less than 4.80

SembMarineLong      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:40) Posted:

Long to enjo
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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 14:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Don't be fooled to sell into strength and brag about it

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 14:05) Posted:

Most people here have a short term view..Then there are those who bought cheap and worried their profits are gone..Therefore this uptrend is slow and gradual..
Many are sidelined waiting for less than 4.80

SembMarineLong      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:40) Posted:

Long to enjo
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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 14:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Most people here have a short term view..Then there are those who bought cheap and worried their profits are gone..Therefore this uptrend is slow and gradual..
Many are sidelined waiting for less than 4.80

SembMarineLong      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:40) Posted:

Long to enjoy

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:33) Posted:

My 4.87 don
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SembMarineLong
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08-Jun-2021 13:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Long to enjoy

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:33) Posted:

My 4.87 done

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 10:33) Posted:

Dear Tigerplay: According to my calculation, an investor who bought SIA at $10 before the pandemic and did not sell but took up all the rights, mcb and going to take up this other MCB will have a cost price of $4.81. This is taking into account the dilution, the 9 years of biannual compound interests of 4% had he place the money for MCB into CPF at 4% interests. So for a very long term investor his cost price after all these is $4.81. It is unlike you can buy this price. If you have bought at 4.86 to 4.87 past few days, they are likely the base price. Today I am queuing to buy at 4.87 agai
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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 13:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		My 4.87 done

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 10:33) Posted:

Dear Tigerplay: According to my calculation, an investor who bought SIA at $10 before the pandemic and did not sell but took up all the rights, mcb and going to take up this other MCB will have a cost price of $4.81. This is taking into account the dilution, the 9 years of biannual compound interests of 4% had he place the money for MCB into CPF at 4% interests. So for a very long term investor his cost price after all these is $4.81. It is unlike you can buy this price. If you have bought at 4.86 to 4.87 past few days, they are likely the base price. Today I am queuing to buy at 4.87 again

TigerPlay      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 09:21) Posted:

may need to change target buy price laiow, up 30cts to 4.80 start buying as SiA look real strong to be going down to 4.50 laiow, look impossible in near term to hit 4.50 based on these 2 weeks moving pric
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RL16EGG
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08-Jun-2021 13:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		await your calculation. meanwhile,  i do feel very difficult for sia to go down to 4.5 unless something ' dramatic' happens.
averaging from 4.8 level makes sense.

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 13:10) Posted:

It's not my view..Market is signalling support at 4.86 / 4.87 I will be doing a presentation of my calculation later.

RL16EGG      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 12:44) Posted:

investor999

Your view seem to be price is very unlikely to go to 4.5c. 4.8 range seems good


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investor999
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08-Jun-2021 13:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It's not my view..Market is signalling support at 4.86 / 4.87 I will be doing a presentation of my calculation later.

RL16EGG      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 12:44) Posted:

investor999

Your view seem to be price is very unlikely to go to 4.5c. 4.8 range seems good ?

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 10:33) Posted:

Dear Tigerplay: According to my calculation, an investor who bought SIA at $10 before the pandemic and did not sell but took up all the rights, mcb and going to take up this other MCB will have a cost price of $4.81. This is taking into account the dilution, the 9 years of biannual compound interests of 4% had he place the money for MCB into CPF at 4% interests. So for a very long term investor his cost price after all these is $4.81. It is unlike you can buy this price. If you have bought at 4.86 to 4.87 past few days, they are likely the base price. Today I am queuing to buy at 4.87 agai
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RL16EGG
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08-Jun-2021 12:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		investor999

Your view seem to be price is very unlikely to go to 4.5c. 4.8 range seems good ?

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 10:33) Posted:

Dear Tigerplay: According to my calculation, an investor who bought SIA at $10 before the pandemic and did not sell but took up all the rights, mcb and going to take up this other MCB will have a cost price of $4.81. This is taking into account the dilution, the 9 years of biannual compound interests of 4% had he place the money for MCB into CPF at 4% interests. So for a very long term investor his cost price after all these is $4.81. It is unlike you can buy this price. If you have bought at 4.86 to 4.87 past few days, they are likely the base price. Today I am queuing to buy at 4.87 again

TigerPlay      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 09:21) Posted:

may need to change target buy price laiow, up 30cts to 4.80 start buying as SiA look real strong to be going down to 4.50 laiow, look impossible in near term to hit 4.50 based on these 2 weeks moving pric
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SembMarineLong
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08-Jun-2021 11:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Long to enjoy

investor999      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 10:33) Posted:

Dear Tigerplay: According to my calculation, an investor who bought SIA at $10 before the pandemic and did not sell but took up all the rights, mcb and going to take up this other MCB will have a cost price of $4.81. This is taking into account the dilution, the 9 years of biannual compound interests of 4% had he place the money for MCB into CPF at 4% interests. So for a very long term investor his cost price after all these is $4.81. It is unlike you can buy this price. If you have bought at 4.86 to 4.87 past few days, they are likely the base price. Today I am queuing to buy at 4.87 again

TigerPlay      ( Date: 08-Jun-2021 09:21) Posted:

may need to change target buy price laiow, up 30cts to 4.80 start buying as SiA look real strong to be going down to 4.50 laiow, look impossible in near term to hit 4.50 based on these 2 weeks moving pric
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