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earlybird14
Supreme |
09-May-2016 20:08
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Usd bottom up last week, market betting on june fed hike interest rate. All commodity price profit taking and shift to purchasing usd.
Oil price soften, if this week inventory data don't surprise the market, oil price will move to flushing mode. Most probably last round flushing before moving to long term rally. Trade with care. |
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makdatok
Supreme |
09-May-2016 15:34
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D most brillian maneuver from saudi is by not defending px 2 yrs ago..without that action,US shale n other producers will keep increasing activities n resulting unparallel glut of oil by now..n will take 10 yrs to restore order...saudi action has successfully stunt shale n deep sea...saudi still d oil king...currently they will be confortable with 50-55 n will not allow px to go higher than that...to keep pressure to shale n oil sand.. | ||||
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nqing87
Supreme |
09-May-2016 15:05
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oil price at 45 bucks, but many oil counters are trading near levels where oil hits below 30.. " sell in may" phenomenon is strong |
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waters
Senior |
09-May-2016 14:58
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Saudis&rsquo New Oil Boss Seen Chasing Record Output to Stymie Shale 2016-05-08 21:00:00.2 GMT By Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia will probably keep producing crude at near-record levels under its newly appointed oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih,as the world&rsquo s largest exporter sticks with his predecessor&rsquo s policy of defending market share against higher-cost shale. Al-Falih, also chairman of the state producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said on his first day in office on Sunday that he will maintain the kingdom&rsquo s oil policy. His predecessor, Ali al- Naimi, had been leading a policy prioritizing sales over prices since 2014, driving some higher-cost producers, including U.S. shale drillers, off the market. In so doing, Saudi Arabia boosted output, adding to a supply glut. The strategy is showing signs of succeeding this year, with prices gaining more than 60 percent since tumbling to a 12-year low in January. Saudi Arabia could exceed its record output of more than 10.5 million daily barrels if it pumps more to meet a seasonal surge in domestic demand during the summer months, analysts from Emirates NBD PJSC and Qamar Energy said. The country, with the world&rsquo s second-largest oil reserves, pumped 10.27 million barrels a day in April. &ldquo If the market considers the appointment as signaling more of the same for Saudi policy, that could allow prices to continue following their gradual trend upward,&rdquo Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, said Sunday by phone from the Dubai-based bank. Continuity in Saudi policy may be offset by the immediate impact of Canadian forest fires forcing about 1 million barrels of daily crude production offline, he said. Saudi Arabia appointed Al-Falih on Saturday to head the newly expanded Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources. He replaces al-Naimi, a 20-year veteran in the post. Al-Falih takes over the ministry responsible for most of the nation&rsquo s income as the biggest producer and de facto leader of OPEC embarks on an economic overhaul designed to make it less reliant on petroleum. &ldquo Saudi Arabia will maintain its stable petroleum policies. We remain committed to maintaining our role in international energy markets and strengthening our position as the world&rsquo s most reliable supplier of energy,&rdquo Al-Falih said in a statement on Sunday. Brent crude plunged to less than half of its annual average of more than $100 a barrel from 2011 through 2014, adding urgency to the push for changes in Saudi Arabia and other energy exporters in the region. Brent crude closed at $45.37 a barrel on Friday in London, a partial recovery from its intraday low of $27.10 a barrel on Jan. 20. &ldquo They&rsquo ll continue the policy of relatively high oil production with no freeze and no deals,&rdquo Robin Mills, chief executive officer at consultant Qamar Energy in Dubai, said Sunday by phone. &ldquo It depends how aggressive the Saudis are in pursuing high production for extended periods and how willing they are to accept lower prices for longer.&rdquo Non-OPEC Supply &ldquo Al-Falih has been backing the policy, and he had been taking a more public role as a government official in defending the stance,&rdquo Mills said. &ldquo There&rsquo s a new king, new power behind the throne, and now you have a new oil minister.&rdquo Non-OPEC supply is poised to slip by about 700,000 barrels a day this year, while demand is forecast to rise by about 1.2 million barrels daily, according to the International Energy Agency. Al-Falih, speaking in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, indicated that the country plans to act vigorously to defend its market share and exports as the market rebalances. He&rsquo ll face that challenge when he represents Saudi Arabia for the first time at the next meting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 2. " If oil prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand them for a long, long time," he said in Davos. Prince Mohammed Analysts suggested Al-Falih may take a harder line in upholding the Saudi market share policy within OPEC. He&rsquo s a close ally of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has taken a hands-off approach in letting oil markets determine crude prices, rather than seeking to target a level. The prince is letting the market dictate prices, with Saudi Arabia only adjusting its production to respond to demand. &ldquo Al-Falih will probably be more direct with its OPEC partners, like Venezuela and Iran,&rdquo Fabio Scacciavillani, chief economist of the Oman Investment Fund, said in an interview Sunday in Dubai. &ldquo It&rsquo s not an appointment in view of the next OPEC meeting. It&rsquo s an appointment for the next 10 years and beyond.&rdquo Venezuela, holder of the largest crude reserves, and Saudi Arabia&rsquo s regional rival Iran have traditionally pushed for curbing output at times of low prices. Iran, emerging from international economic sanctions, is putting supply back on the market and challenging the Saudis for new buyers in Asia. A Saudi- and Russian-led meeting in Doha last month ended in disagreement about a plan to freeze production to prop up prices after Iran refused to limit its output. &ldquo Until supply balances with demand, it&rsquo s unlikely there will be any major change in Saudi production,&rdquo Scacciavillani said. &ldquo Saudi energy policy is a function of reality in oil markets, not a function of choice.&rdquo --With assistance from Javier Blas. To contact the reporter on this story: Anthony DiPaola in Dubai at [email protected]To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nayla Razzouk at [email protected]Bruce Stanley |
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makdatok
Supreme |
09-May-2016 08:26
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It will.take a month for them to start production..
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
09-May-2016 08:07
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But ..... Canadian fires tamed, oil px also doused liao.
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
09-May-2016 06:17
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All roads lead to Alaska. Oil in danger of shooting pass 46USD anytime soon. |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-May-2016 20:52
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I was trying to find out if oil imports cld be an import dampener in USD terms. Imports up 13%. But can' t remember what oil px was around this time last yr. If it was, say 15-20% higher in Apr 15 compared to Apr 16, then it partly explains the large fall in imports. That cld be a bit of a relief cos then import decline might not be due to a decline in stocking up of raw materials which, if it is, cld spell some worries that growth momentum may not be there yet.
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 20:49
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It may not be clear what news Monday oil market will be responding to - Canadian fire, Nigeria destruction, China trade data, US Rig Count or Replacement of Naimi ? Below is an assessment of Naimi's replacement.
Here?s what the departure of Saudi Arabia?s al-Naimi means for oil prices By Barbara Kollmeyer Published: May 7, 2016 3:52 p.m. ET Oil prices could rise in the near term on volatility Saudi Arabia?s Ali al-Naimi, right, at a May 4 meeting He was known to some as the Alan Greenspan of the oil world. That is Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia?s powerful oil minister, who was fired from his post on Saturday. He will be replaced by Khalid-al Falih, the chairman of the country?s state oil company, Saudi Aramco. ?This is a historic one. [Al-Naimi] is the guy who for all intents and purposes has been the global oil market for the last 30 years,? said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. Al-Naimi gained global respect for turning the biggest oil cartel in the world, otherwise known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), into a respectable organization, Flynn said in a telephone interview. And just as former Fed Chairman Greenspan would lower or raise interest rates when he thought the market needed it, al-Naimi would add or hold back on oil depending on the energy market?s needs, he added. The move has reminded some who is ultimately in charge. While al-Falih, the new oil minister, now has one of the most powerful posts in the world, Flynn said there is no doubt that 36-year old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is running the show in Saudi Arabia. ?This guy is the new power broker in that country,? he said. The dismissal of al-Naimi comes weeks after the Saudi government unveiled a plan to wean the country off its dependence on oil revenue, given the hit the country has taken from lower oil prices. Some saw the writing on the wall for al-Naimi after major oil producers failed to reach a deal to freeze production in Doha, Qatar last month. While al-Naimi had previously said a deal was possible even if Iran didn?t take part, Prince Mohammed by all accounts put his foot down and no deal was done. Khalid al-Falih, pictured in January. Worry about al-Falih? Flynn said al-Naimi survived as many of his buddies were fired under Prince Mohammed?s father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. He said King Salman stopped short of axing al-Naimi because of the respect he commanded both in the country and abroad. It was clear, he said, that al-Naimi didn?t have the power to get a deal done at Doha. But what some may not realize is that al-Falih also commands much respect in the oil world, said Jason Bordoff, a professor at Columbia University and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy in New York. ?Everyone who pays attention to Saudi Arabia and oil prices knows Khalid al-Falih is very widely regarded and respected as a capable leader of Saudi Aramco,? he said in a telephone interview. Al-Falih has been working closely with the Prince Mohammed and seems to have the ?confidence and trust of him,? said Bordoff, who served as White House energy adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013. ?Saudi Aramco is widely regarded as one of the most technically sophisticated oil companies in the world, and I?ve had some personal dealings with Khalid and many other people who have view him as an incredibly impressive and smart and capable person,? he said. Before Saturday?s announcement, Al-Falih had been the country?s health minister, tackling a problematic area of the country?s economy, he said. As for al-Naimi, no one should be that surprised at an 81-year old, who had spoken for years of retiring, is finally leaving that powerful oil post, he said. Where now for oil prices? If there?s one thing that rattles the oil market, that?s any sort of surprise, and it?s fair to say the market may get the jitters over the news out of Saudi Arabia. The Doha meeting created uncertainty for the oil market as well as questions over Saudi Arabia?s futures policies and whether it will rise to the occasion such as in the past, raising and lowering global oil production when it was needed for the rest of the world, said Flynn. Now uncertainty in the wake of Saturday?s news could give oil prices a push in the near term, he said. ?My assumption is that we?re in a globally oversupplied market. The market might look at it two ways: more uncertainty is bullish overall, though in the short term there is this perception that Saudi Arabia may flood the market with oil,? said Flynn. Just ahead of the failed Doha meeting, Prince Mohammed told Bloomberg in an interview that his country could boost its daily production number by as much as 20 million barrels if it invested in production capacity and by up to 11.5 million barrels a day right away. But Flynn said that given the country is seeing a strain on its finances because of weak oil prices, it can?t really afford to start ramping up production by more than a small amount. He said it would be worth watching China closely as for how well the oil market deals with news of a new oil minister in Saudi Arabia. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -2.82% fell nearly 3% on Friday on worries about looming bond defaults. China crude imports in March were the second-highest on record, and any signs that the economy or stocks are stressed will lead the oil market to believe the country could curb that demand, said Flynn. But he?s ultimately optimistic about prices, provided the Chinese economy doesn?t fall apart. If the Chinese economy does melt down again, he said the market will be talking about a glut, and if things stabilize in China, the conversations will be quite different, more along the balance side. Bordoff said he doesn?t see much reaction coming from the oil market, though he agrees the changing of the guard could drive prices up in the short term. ?We?ll be watching the next 24 to 48 hours to see if any other news comes out. I don?t think that this was that unexpected. I don?t think people will view it as any indication that large-scale changes are imminent in Saudi oil policy,? he said. More from MarketWatch |
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 16:53
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China Oil Imports Rise as Teapot Refinery Demand Overwhelms Port
By Bloomberg News - 8 May 2016, 11:43:38 AM Oil imports by China, the world?s biggest consumer after the U.S., rebounded amid strong buying by independent refiners that have helped push the country?s crude demand to a record and overwhelmed one of the country?s biggest ports with tanker traffic. Inbound shipments during April totaled 32.58 million metric tons, data from the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday. That?s equivalent to 7.96 million barrels a day, up 3.2 percent from the previous month and near a record 8.04 million in February. Net oil-product exports fell 10 percent from March to 1.17 million tons. Crude imports have been driven by smaller refining companies that operate independently of the country?s state-owned energy giants and have been empowered in the past year to import their own supplies. Increased purchases by these processors, known as teapots, caused a backup of tankers last month at the port of Qingdao, near where many of them operate in Shandong province. Imports through the region surged to a record in March and accounted for about 30 percent of the country?s total. "The buying spree is supported by teapots utilizing their import quotas since the start of the year, which is reflected in their record operating rates," Amy Sun, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China, said by phone. ?Congestion at Qingdao port may have also stretched the time it took customs to clear volumes that arrived in the first quarter. " ?Unprecedented? Traffic China?s independent refineries boosted operating rates to a record of 53.02 percent of capacity as of April 29, according to industry website Oilchem.net. Qingdao has been congested this year from "unprecedented" tanker traffic amid rising imports by teapot refiners, according to Liu Jin, general manager of Qingdao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal Co., which operates oil berths at the port. Imports may begin slowing this month and next because of a lack of storage and logistical bottlenecks, BMI Research said in a report May 5. Sunday?s release is the first snapshot of the oil market during April in the country expected to overtake the U.S. this year as the world?s biggest importer. Refinery run data and more-detailed trade figures are due later this month. China?s crude imports climbed to a record quarterly average of 7.34 million barrels a day in the first three months of the year, up 13 percent from the same period a year ago, as higher refining margin encouraged purchases. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 12:15
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Thanks for the clarification. Indeed you are right that it has increased in terms of Yuan$ but declined in terms of US$ given Yuan$ has depreciated.
China has not come up with any stimulus for a while. |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-May-2016 11:22
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Thx brother. This is why I tend to have a deem view of media rpts, whereever they come from, n stress the need for us to do our own assessments from the rpts. From the two rpts, one was in USD n the other in Yuan denomination n the short commentaries concentrated on different focuses. Too much sensationalising these days. Terrible. My view .... I' m more positive on China going forward. Things work in cycles n they can' t be forever in down cycle.
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 11:07
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Another and more neutral view from AFP.
China April exports rise as imports drop: officials AFP News 7 mins ago China's exports expanded in April but at a slower pace than the previous month, while exports slumped nearly six percent compared to the same month last year, officials said. The official statistics bureau said exports rose about 4 percent year-on-year in April, while the decline in imports caused the country's trade surplus to swell some 46 percent in yuan terms to reach nearly 300 billion yuan ($46 billion).
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 11:05
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Reuters and Bloomberg has the tendency to oppose each other comment and assessment. One cited positive while the other negative for the same set of statistics.
China April exports fall 1.8 percent, missing forecasts - customs Reuters 23 mins ago BEIJING (Reuters) - China's April exports disappointed analyst expectations, falling 1.8 percent from a year earlier, while imports fell by 10.9 percent, customs data showed on Sunday. That left the country with a trade surplus of $45.56 billion for the month, the General Administration of Customs said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected exports to fall by 0.1 percent, and predicted imports would fall by 5.0 percent.
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2016 11:02
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China Exports Rise for Second Month as Overseas Demand Continues
By Bloomberg News - 8 May 2016, 10:34:07 AM China?s exports registered a modest increase in April after surging the most in a year in March, signaling that overseas demand continues for products from the world?s largest exporter. Overseas shipments rose 4.1 percent in yuan terms from a year earlier, after a March jump of 18.7 percent. Imports extended a streak of declines to 18 months, slumping 5.7 percent, to leave a trade surplus of 298 billion yuan. The continued improvement suggests the March surge, while exaggerated by seasonal effects after the Lunar New Year holiday, may be more than a blip. A trade recovery would help ease pressure on the government to boost growth through more stimulus measures. "The momentum of policy easing has peaked in the near term," UBS Group AG analysts led by Zhang Ning in Hong Kong wrote in a report before the release. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
08-May-2016 09:26
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Oil price is sideline and market lack of direction due to uncertain on demand. Supply growth is frozen, iran production hike will be offset by us production drop or oil well declination.
So next to watch up is global economic especially the us which dow and nasdaq touch near record high and come down again. If dow is down, oil price will move to final consolidation but hardly to see below 30 again. |
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sharenewbie0301
Veteran |
08-May-2016 08:39
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But when oil up will sg oil shares up? | ||||
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-May-2016 08:33
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Yep, I' m looking forward .....
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ysh2006
Supreme |
08-May-2016 07:55
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Talk no use action better : see oil price reaction on Monday... | ||||
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-May-2016 07:51
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N add actual n potential disruption from continuing violence in Libya n u get a perfect, or near perfect, picture of which way oil is heading going forward. Just hope that the Canadian fires while spreading do not add to human miseries. For me, when an incumbent, whoes instransigent policy is to refuse to stop pumping, is removed it signals that SA is likely to, as a token at least, be more forthcoming in lowering production. This cld further support px. At the same time, is it fair for the western dominated media to be putting the blame almost entirely on the Saudis for the surplus global supply due to its uncompromising stance in reducing production. Why aren' t the shalers the devils too? After all, the reduction in American production is borne more out of forced bankruptcies than voluntary cooperation with other producers. So, to me the big qn is how soon will it take them to rejuvenate to flood the mkt n torpedo oil px all over again? In other words, how sustainable will the seemingly supportive situation be going forward?
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