Back

Latest Forum Topics / Frasers HTrust

Post Reply

Fraser Hospitality Trust privatise Post Reply Rate topic
Trader-101 Supreme	15-May 11:52        Trader-101 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "Don't trust what i say, Trust your decisions. "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It would be helpful if someone could present a clear and convincing case for why the offer should be revised higher. We are not even halfway through the year, yet there are already at least nine privatisation attempts underway - a reflection of how tough the current market environment has become. Persistently low valuations are making it easier for offers to come in well below intrinsic value. Instead of focusing only on the offerors as being opportunistic, it is worth recognising the larger issue - the market is not pricing companies fairly, and that opens the door for these offers to succeed.  If SGX still does not get its act together and address the structural issues - such as undervaluation, lack of liquidity, and weak investor confidence. Sooner or later, both local and foreign investors will lose interest in a market where listed companies are continually taken private without being fairly valued.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
jlong0005 Senior	15-May-2025 10:22        jlong0005 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think they are not serious to privatise. Maybe doing the same trick again.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	15-May-2025 09:44        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Not many has the holding power of gold finger. To trader101, thanks for your posts. You reflect reality of price action and valuation. Only one thing bear adds here. Many low ballers like to choose a time when company not doing well to acquire cheap. Normal business. But at better times, this could fetch a higher acquisition price. So those who reject are simply waiting for better times to catch the up cycle. In independent valuer would give a fair price based on current conditions. Bear will most likely give a biased valuation based on better future expected performance of this trust
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	15-May-2025 09:02        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Fair points. I bought much cheaper - but I detest privatisation offers at low prices for minorities.  Or being forced to sell at prices that we are not willing to do so at this price. The market is not as transparent as we all would like it to be or think it to be. Trader-101      ( Date: 15-May-2025 08:53) Posted: @Goldfinger, I am not sure but Paragon REIT delisted via the same pathway too.  1, 6, 7  After the first privatisation attempt failed in September 2022, FH Trust traded below $0.52 for 14 months, only rising again when a new offer appeared likely. If the market truly believed the trust was worth more than $0.70, the price would have went above that level even without a privatisation offer. Again, if the market had expected higher offer, it would have traded above $0.70 too.  Even the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) used in the offer documents is skewed higher due to the price rally during the 2022 offer period - not because the market naturally valued the trust that way. Analyst targets have mostly ranged between $0.63 and $0.68, which is still below the current offer of $0.71. Based on both price history and research coverage, this offer is already above the level that the market has consistently been willing to support. 2  Some REITs do trade above NAV, but this usually applies to industrial or retail REITs with stable and recurring income streams. Hospitality REITs, such as FH-Trust, face challenges such as:       &bull       Fluctuating earnings based on seasonality       &bull       High capital expenditure requirements       &bull       Dependence on macroeconomic and tourism conditions Even Genting Singapore, a company considered a bellwether for tourism in Singapore, recently reported a sharp drop in profits. These risks explain why hospitality REITs typically do not command a large premium over NAV. 3, 4  Unitholders deserve to be compensated for the risk they take. However, in many privatisation cases, the offeror claws back dividends or adjusts the offer price downward. In this case, the sponsor announced the strategic review before the ex-dividend date, yet chose not to claw back the latest dividend. That value has been left entirely in the hands of unitholders, and should be considered part of the overall return. 5  REITs are designed to deliver income that outpaces inflation. Comparing $0.71 today to $0.70 in 2022 without including dividends understates the actual return. With approximately 7.3 cents distributed since the 2022 offer, long-term holders have received a total of around $0.783 &mdash which is clearly higher than the first offer price.  8  When the 2022 attempt failed, the price remained depressed for over a year &mdash even during a period of economic recovery and tourism rebound. With today&rsquo s weaker macroeconomic conditions and a possible reduction in DPU, a second failed offer could result in an even longer period of underperformance. This is not speculation, it is based on actual precedent. 9  Frasers Property&rsquo s share price only trended higher after the previous privatisation bid failed. This time Frasers property share remained flat. This suggests that even the sponsor&rsquo s own shareholders were not enthusiastic about acquiring FH-Trust. I believe Frasers Property shareholders does not want this privatisation to go through too.  Even ParagonREIT was taken private at 7% premium to NAV. The current offer is about 11.1% premium to NAV, already better than ParagonREIT.  For those who have held since IPO, this is still a profitable investment when dividends are included. While the total return may be lower than other major REITs, it remains positive. The key question now is: If this privatisation fails again, will the price remain at $0.70? And if not, how long will it take to recover - if at all? There is little value in arguing the trust is worth more than $0.71 when the market has never shown support for that valuation. Based on analyst reports and actual trading history, this offer is already above what the market has been willing to support. As a minority shareholder myself - currently facing a low offer at Sinarmas Land - I understand the desire to demand more. But without calculations or a valuation-based case to support a higher price, there may be no basis for further revision. SIAS and other investor advocacy groups cannot step in without data to support the argument. If anyone believes the current offer is unfairly low, it would be helpful to present a clear and detailed valuation. Otherwise, this may already be the fairest offer that unitholders are likely to receive.  MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 18:54) Posted: 1) price action in anticipation of an offer. Recovery from undervaluation. 2) any profitable reit worth it's salt shld trade above nav because of future cash flows. 3) that's to reward loyal shareholders and is fair. 4) that 8.3 cents is my rightful income to compensate me for the risks I took investing here. 5) 71 cents today is worth much less than 70 cents in 2022. 6) analyst can easily misprice. 7) typical of many undervalued stocks on SGX 8) that varies from individual to individual. 9) some don't want to be invested in such an array of businesses. On its own terms we would expect a much higher offer for its business from an entity that is so rich. Can't they offer say 75 to 80 cents? Say a 20 percent premium to nav?? Trade with higher expectations
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Trader-101 Supreme	15-May-2025 08:53        Trader-101 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "Don't trust what i say, Trust your decisions. "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	@Goldfinger, I am not sure but Paragon REIT delisted via the same pathway too.  1, 6, 7  After the first privatisation attempt failed in September 2022, FH Trust traded below $0.52 for 14 months, only rising again when a new offer appeared likely. If the market truly believed the trust was worth more than $0.70, the price would have went above that level even without a privatisation offer. Again, if the market had expected higher offer, it would have traded above $0.70 too.  Even the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) used in the offer documents is skewed higher due to the price rally during the 2022 offer period - not because the market naturally valued the trust that way. Analyst targets have mostly ranged between $0.63 and $0.68, which is still below the current offer of $0.71. Based on both price history and research coverage, this offer is already above the level that the market has consistently been willing to support. 2  Some REITs do trade above NAV, but this usually applies to industrial or retail REITs with stable and recurring income streams. Hospitality REITs, such as FH-Trust, face challenges such as:       &bull       Fluctuating earnings based on seasonality       &bull       High capital expenditure requirements       &bull       Dependence on macroeconomic and tourism conditions Even Genting Singapore, a company considered a bellwether for tourism in Singapore, recently reported a sharp drop in profits. These risks explain why hospitality REITs typically do not command a large premium over NAV. 3, 4  Unitholders deserve to be compensated for the risk they take. However, in many privatisation cases, the offeror claws back dividends or adjusts the offer price downward. In this case, the sponsor announced the strategic review before the ex-dividend date, yet chose not to claw back the latest dividend. That value has been left entirely in the hands of unitholders, and should be considered part of the overall return. 5  REITs are designed to deliver income that outpaces inflation. Comparing $0.71 today to $0.70 in 2022 without including dividends understates the actual return. With approximately 7.3 cents distributed since the 2022 offer, long-term holders have received a total of around $0.783 &mdash which is clearly higher than the first offer price.  8  When the 2022 attempt failed, the price remained depressed for over a year &mdash even during a period of economic recovery and tourism rebound. With today&rsquo s weaker macroeconomic conditions and a possible reduction in DPU, a second failed offer could result in an even longer period of underperformance. This is not speculation, it is based on actual precedent. 9  Frasers Property&rsquo s share price only trended higher after the previous privatisation bid failed. This time Frasers property share remained flat. This suggests that even the sponsor&rsquo s own shareholders were not enthusiastic about acquiring FH-Trust. I believe Frasers Property shareholders does not want this privatisation to go through too.  Even ParagonREIT was taken private at 7% premium to NAV. The current offer is about 11.1% premium to NAV, already better than ParagonREIT.  For those who have held since IPO, this is still a profitable investment when dividends are included. While the total return may be lower than other major REITs, it remains positive. The key question now is: If this privatisation fails again, will the price remain at $0.70? And if not, how long will it take to recover - if at all? There is little value in arguing the trust is worth more than $0.71 when the market has never shown support for that valuation. Based on analyst reports and actual trading history, this offer is already above what the market has been willing to support. As a minority shareholder myself - currently facing a low offer at Sinarmas Land - I understand the desire to demand more. But without calculations or a valuation-based case to support a higher price, there may be no basis for further revision. SIAS and other investor advocacy groups cannot step in without data to support the argument. If anyone believes the current offer is unfairly low, it would be helpful to present a clear and detailed valuation. Otherwise, this may already be the fairest offer that unitholders are likely to receive.  MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 18:54) Posted: 1) price action in anticipation of an offer. Recovery from undervaluation. 2) any profitable reit worth it's salt shld trade above nav because of future cash flows. 3) that's to reward loyal shareholders and is fair. 4) that 8.3 cents is my rightful income to compensate me for the risks I took investing here. 5) 71 cents today is worth much less than 70 cents in 2022. 6) analyst can easily misprice. 7) typical of many undervalued stocks on SGX 8) that varies from individual to individual. 9) some don't want to be invested in such an array of businesses. On its own terms we would expect a much higher offer for its business from an entity that is so rich. Can't they offer say 75 to 80 cents? Say a 20 percent premium to nav?? Trade with higher expectations Trader-101      ( Date: 14-May-2025 17:58) Posted: 1)The stock has gained over 20% in the past two months, which represents a strong short-term return for existing holders. 2)The offer is above NAV. 3)Shareholders who held units prior to the offer will retain their dividend entitlements. 4)After factoring in dividends, those who declined the privatisation offer in 2022 are effectively receiving $0.783, compared to $0.70 back then. 5)On an accounting basis, the current offer is notably higher than the 2022 proposal. 6)The offer price is also above analyst target prices. 7)After the previous privatisation failed in September 2022, the unit price stayed below $0.52 for 14 months, until late 2024 - suggesting the market was not willing to value the trust above that level for most of that period. 8)If we look at price trends, a similar pattern appears - in 2022, the price rose from $0.44 to $0.70 in the three months leading up to the offer. This time, it climbed from $0.42 in November 2024 to $0.69. If this privatisation fails again, it is worth considering - are holders prepared for a potential retracement back to $0.42? 9)Shareholders still have the option to invest in Frasers Property, should they wish to maintain exposure to Frasers H Trust future growth. Taken together, the current offer reflects a significant improvement from 2022 - both in structure and context. When compared to Sinarmas Land, this offeror is incredibly generous. For those who view this as a lowball offer - would be interested to understand which aspect of the offer you find unreasonably low?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	14-May-2025 22:17        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I rather hold onto a counter and suffer the lower yield, as I did not buy to sell it to the Sponsor against my will at a lowball takeover price below the IPO price of 88 cents. geographic      ( Date: 14-May-2025 20:18) Posted: What will happen to the share price of this counter if this round of privatisation exercise fell through again? I did not participate in the voting for the previous privatisation exercise. I thought the privatisation exercise would automatically go through but instead it fell through. I have held on this share counter since IPO. Initially, the dividend payout was quite good. But it started to dwindle and the share price also dropped to less than 50% of the IPO price.  I do not mind getting back less than what I have paid for during IPO after holding it for so many years. It is perhaps time to let go and move on.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Sgvale Supreme	14-May-2025 21:35        Sgvale About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Raise to 0.80 pls . I will ching chai let go .
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
geographic Senior	14-May-2025 21:23        geographic About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I will be very happy if SIAS can chip in to negotiate for a higher price.    MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 21:11) Posted: Depends on how well this trust performs. Take it to the vote then. Trade democratically. geographic      ( Date: 14-May-2025 20:18) Posted: What will happen to the share price of this counter if this round of privatisation exercise fell through again? I did not participate in the voting for the previous privatisation exercise. I thought the privatisation exercise would automatically go through but instead it fell through. I have held on this share counter since IPO. Initially, the dividend payout was quite good. But it started to dwindle and the share price also dropped to less than 50% of the IPO price.  I do not mind getting back less than what I have paid for during IPO after holding it for so many years. It is perhaps time to let go and move on.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 21:11        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Depends on how well this trust performs. Take it to the vote then. Trade democratically. geographic      ( Date: 14-May-2025 20:18) Posted: What will happen to the share price of this counter if this round of privatisation exercise fell through again? I did not participate in the voting for the previous privatisation exercise. I thought the privatisation exercise would automatically go through but instead it fell through. I have held on this share counter since IPO. Initially, the dividend payout was quite good. But it started to dwindle and the share price also dropped to less than 50% of the IPO price.  I do not mind getting back less than what I have paid for during IPO after holding it for so many years. It is perhaps time to let go and move on.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
geographic Senior	14-May-2025 20:18        geographic About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What will happen to the share price of this counter if this round of privatisation exercise fell through again? I did not participate in the voting for the previous privatisation exercise. I thought the privatisation exercise would automatically go through but instead it fell through. I have held on this share counter since IPO. Initially, the dividend payout was quite good. But it started to dwindle and the share price also dropped to less than 50% of the IPO price.  I do not mind getting back less than what I have paid for during IPO after holding it for so many years. It is perhaps time to let go and move on.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	14-May-2025 19:22        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is actually an insulting offer in my view - its like they are not happy they lost by 0.12 per cent the last round, and now throwing back the 1 cent higher price at minority shareholders to tell them if you want more, I will give you 1 cent more.  Making us feel cheap.  Disgusting.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 18:54        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1) price action in anticipation of an offer. Recovery from undervaluation. 2) any profitable reit worth it's salt shld trade above nav because of future cash flows. 3) that's to reward loyal shareholders and is fair. 4) that 8.3 cents is my rightful income to compensate me for the risks I took investing here. 5) 71 cents today is worth much less than 70 cents in 2022. 6) analyst can easily misprice. 7) typical of many undervalued stocks on SGX 8) that varies from individual to individual. 9) some don't want to be invested in such an array of businesses. On its own terms we would expect a much higher offer for its business from an entity that is so rich. Can't they offer say 75 to 80 cents? Say a 20 percent premium to nav?? Trade with higher expectations Trader-101      ( Date: 14-May-2025 17:58) Posted: 1)The stock has gained over 20% in the past two months, which represents a strong short-term return for existing holders. 2)The offer is above NAV. 3)Shareholders who held units prior to the offer will retain their dividend entitlements. 4)After factoring in dividends, those who declined the privatisation offer in 2022 are effectively receiving $0.783, compared to $0.70 back then. 5)On an accounting basis, the current offer is notably higher than the 2022 proposal. 6)The offer price is also above analyst target prices. 7)After the previous privatisation failed in September 2022, the unit price stayed below $0.52 for 14 months, until late 2024 - suggesting the market was not willing to value the trust above that level for most of that period. 8)If we look at price trends, a similar pattern appears - in 2022, the price rose from $0.44 to $0.70 in the three months leading up to the offer. This time, it climbed from $0.42 in November 2024 to $0.69. If this privatisation fails again, it is worth considering - are holders prepared for a potential retracement back to $0.42? 9)Shareholders still have the option to invest in Frasers Property, should they wish to maintain exposure to Frasers H Trust future growth. Taken together, the current offer reflects a significant improvement from 2022 - both in structure and context. When compared to Sinarmas Land, this offeror is incredibly generous. For those who view this as a lowball offer - would be interested to understand which aspect of the offer you find unreasonably low?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	14-May-2025 18:51        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why not go down the 90% takeover offer route if they think it is such a great deal??? Trader-101      ( Date: 14-May-2025 17:58) Posted: 1)The stock has gained over 20% in the past two months, which represents a strong short-term return for existing holders. 2)The offer is above NAV. 3)Shareholders who held units prior to the offer will retain their dividend entitlements. 4)After factoring in dividends, those who declined the privatisation offer in 2022 are effectively receiving $0.783, compared to $0.70 back then. 5)On an accounting basis, the current offer is notably higher than the 2022 proposal. 6)The offer price is also above analyst target prices. 7)After the previous privatisation failed in September 2022, the unit price stayed below $0.52 for 14 months, until late 2024 - suggesting the market was not willing to value the trust above that level for most of that period. 8)If we look at price trends, a similar pattern appears - in 2022, the price rose from $0.44 to $0.70 in the three months leading up to the offer. This time, it climbed from $0.42 in November 2024 to $0.69. If this privatisation fails again, it is worth considering - are holders prepared for a potential retracement back to $0.42? 9)Shareholders still have the option to invest in Frasers Property, should they wish to maintain exposure to Frasers H Trust future growth. Taken together, the current offer reflects a significant improvement from 2022 - both in structure and context. When compared to Sinarmas Land, this offeror is incredibly generous. For those who view this as a lowball offer - would be interested to understand which aspect of the offer you find unreasonably low?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Trader-101 Supreme	14-May-2025 17:58        Trader-101 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "Don't trust what i say, Trust your decisions. "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1)The stock has gained over 20% in the past two months, which represents a strong short-term return for existing holders. 2)The offer is above NAV. 3)Shareholders who held units prior to the offer will retain their dividend entitlements. 4)After factoring in dividends, those who declined the privatisation offer in 2022 are effectively receiving $0.783, compared to $0.70 back then. 5)On an accounting basis, the current offer is notably higher than the 2022 proposal. 6)The offer price is also above analyst target prices. 7)After the previous privatisation failed in September 2022, the unit price stayed below $0.52 for 14 months, until late 2024 - suggesting the market was not willing to value the trust above that level for most of that period. 8)If we look at price trends, a similar pattern appears - in 2022, the price rose from $0.44 to $0.70 in the three months leading up to the offer. This time, it climbed from $0.42 in November 2024 to $0.69. If this privatisation fails again, it is worth considering - are holders prepared for a potential retracement back to $0.42? 9)Shareholders still have the option to invest in Frasers Property, should they wish to maintain exposure to Frasers H Trust future growth. Taken together, the current offer reflects a significant improvement from 2022 - both in structure and context. When compared to Sinarmas Land, this offeror is incredibly generous. For those who view this as a lowball offer - would be interested to understand which aspect of the offer you find unreasonably low?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 17:42        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bear fainted. Typical gahmen Increase GST from 7 to 11 per cent is a lot to us. Increase in percentage premium over NAV from 7 to 11 percent is peanuts.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	14-May-2025 17:05        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You should see the Mr Gan quote in BT - how he justify that 1 cent more is not really only 1 cent more....   " Gan was of the view that the latest offer price of S$0.71 is &ldquo a lot higher&rdquo than S$0.70 when compared in terms of the premium it offers on the NAV. While the previous offer of S$0.70 was at a 7 per cent premium to NAV, the latest offer is higher at 11 per cent. Said Gan: &ldquo Don&rsquo t just look at one cent, but look at the percentage. I think that speaks volumes, because 11.1 per cent is a lot higher than any of the other metrics.&rdquo MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 17:00) Posted: Directors of the Trust cited challenges due to the changing macroeconomic environment, such as a weaker foreign exchange rate against the Singapore dollar, higher interest rate environment, global cost inflation and unforeseen events such as Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic. Does a change in ownership overcome these challenges just like that?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 17:00        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Directors of the Trust cited challenges due to the changing macroeconomic environment, such as a weaker foreign exchange rate against the Singapore dollar, higher interest rate environment, global cost inflation and unforeseen events such as Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic. Does a change in ownership overcome these challenges just like that?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 16:55        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I can write to Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi?s Frasers Property and tell him his offer is ridiculous. Goldfinger      ( Date: 14-May-2025 15:55) Posted: I wrote in to SIAS to complain about this insulting offer.  Others please do likewise. MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 15:46) Posted: Shareholders United to resist low ballers. Low ballers shld be taught a lesson not to treat the stock markets as a pasar malam. Trade stock markets like high end boutiques
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Goldfinger Supreme	14-May-2025 15:55        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I wrote in to SIAS to complain about this insulting offer.  Others please do likewise. MrBear12      ( Date: 14-May-2025 15:46) Posted: Shareholders United to resist low ballers. Low ballers shld be taught a lesson not to treat the stock markets as a pasar malam. Trade stock markets like high end boutiques
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12 Supreme	14-May-2025 15:46        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Shareholders United to resist low ballers. Low ballers shld be taught a lesson not to treat the stock markets as a pasar malam. Trade stock markets like high end boutiques
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   41-60 of 228   Older>   Last