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enjoylife77
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28-Feb-2014 00:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It is exactly this type of house that gives incredulous TP$1.40 that lured retailer into the quicksand.

Lucky03      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 22:49) Posted:

We can at best speculate here. We need more clarity and information from NOL and it is too 'quiet'. Updating the news of potential review of the Warchlist is good governance but not a common practice. I hardly remember coming across any such company willing and proactively make such announcement ahead of the event happening. I doubt NOL will be put on Warchlist comes Mar but over the next few days, shortists can easily build on the fear. With UOBKH recommending shorting on technical ground and yet stating that it is still positive that NOL TP is $1.40 and recommending long term HOLD and BUY.

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Lucky03
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27-Feb-2014 22:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		We can at best speculate here. We need more clarity and information from NOL and it is too 'quiet'. Updating the news of potential review of the Warchlist is good governance but not a common practice. I hardly remember coming across any such company willing and proactively make such announcement ahead of the event happening. I doubt NOL will be put on Warchlist comes Mar but over the next few days, shortists can easily build on the fear. With UOBKH recommending shorting on technical ground and yet stating that it is still positive that NOL TP is $1.40 and recommending long term HOLD and BUY.
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banana
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27-Feb-2014 22:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I've seen ur thread in gallant and China fish.. U don't know what u r talking. U r just taking this opportunity to attack this thread to create fear without justification. If I'm a shortist, I will publish all financials in all medias.. Don't forget more than 10% of stocks here r below..further 10%? Then still 1500 pts?..u not staying in Singapore anymore? .. Think deeper 

earlybird14      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 22:25) Posted:

Now is neither 911, Asian financial crisis nor 2008 US debt crisis.

It is oversupply and operating structure change. Weak company has to be wipe out.

If any crisis come, it will accelerate the wipe out. NOL is too high debt, operating condition is bad. Downtrend is confirmed. Worst is not coming yet.

sgng123      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 20:37) Posted:

I am a Lao Jiao investor of  ship, watch so many up and down of ship share movement. Nothing can scare me now I watch ship go down to 0.50 in the Asian financial crisis and similar another one in 911 event. Ship would always crawl back to the $2 range then move higher for another boom cycle before crashing down again. According to mine observation, the down cycle almost over but ship would need to fall further before a rebound is seen and upward momentum maintain. Everyone know we going to recover this year as shown by the very strong US GDP growth in 2H13, plus now even those weak European countries like spain/Greece/Italy/portu are returning to growth. It is just difficult to know when the US economy would reach escape velocity and zoom off taking everyone up for another economy upside cycle, just be patient and wait for it. Worst is over for developed countries and even the tapering of Fed only minimum effect on sentiment as stock market all recovers from Jan low. Patience is gold and if u don even had it, don bother to step into the investing community.
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earlybird14
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27-Feb-2014 22:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Now is neither 911, Asian financial crisis nor 2008 US debt crisis.

It is oversupply and operating structure change. Weak company has to be wipe out.

If any crisis come, it will accelerate the wipe out. NOL is too high debt, operating condition is bad. Downtrend is confirmed. Worst is not coming yet.

sgng123      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 20:37) Posted:

I am a Lao Jiao investor of  ship, watch so many up and down of ship share movement. Nothing can scare me now I watch ship go down to 0.50 in the Asian financial crisis and similar another one in 911 event. Ship would always crawl back to the $2 range then move higher for another boom cycle before crashing down again. According to mine observation, the down cycle almost over but ship would need to fall further before a rebound is seen and upward momentum maintain. Everyone know we going to recover this year as shown by the very strong US GDP growth in 2H13, plus now even those weak European countries like spain/Greece/Italy/portu are returning to growth. It is just difficult to know when the US economy would reach escape velocity and zoom off taking everyone up for another economy upside cycle, just be patient and wait for it. Worst is over for developed countries and even the tapering of Fed only minimum effect on sentiment as stock market all recovers from Jan low. Patience is gold and if u don even had it, don bother to step into the investing community.
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darthiliator
Senior
27-Feb-2014 21:57     
 
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haha RSI oversold already and retracing, I close my short position liao. Huatfull to all.

 
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ascend88
Master
27-Feb-2014 21:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Break 95c is not too good sign

spore1      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 20:43) Posted:

looks bearish. going down to test 91 cents

New123      ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 10:55) Posted:



Started to move up. Looking gd to clear $1.11and go higher.

http://sporeonlines.blogspot.sg/2014/01/nol.html
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spore1
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27-Feb-2014 20:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		looks bearish. going down to test 91 cents

New123      ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 10:55) Posted:



Started to move up. Looking gd to clear $1.11and go higher.

http://sporeonlines.blogspot.sg/2014/01/nol.html

New123      ( Date: 03-Jan-2014 20:07) Posted:

going down to test $1.05.


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sgng123
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 20:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am a Lao Jiao investor of  ship, watch so many up and down of ship share movement. Nothing can scare me now I watch ship go down to 0.50 in the Asian financial crisis and similar another one in 911 event. Ship would always crawl back to the $2 range then move higher for another boom cycle before crashing down again. According to mine observation, the down cycle almost over but ship would need to fall further before a rebound is seen and upward momentum maintain. Everyone know we going to recover this year as shown by the very strong US GDP growth in 2H13, plus now even those weak European countries like spain/Greece/Italy/portu are returning to growth. It is just difficult to know when the US economy would reach escape velocity and zoom off taking everyone up for another economy upside cycle, just be patient and wait for it. Worst is over for developed countries and even the tapering of Fed only minimum effect on sentiment as stock market all recovers from Jan low. Patience is gold and if u don even had it, don bother to step into the investing community.
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sgng123
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27-Feb-2014 20:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		we would see that in 6 month time. By the way maesrk revenue also fall by 6% similar to ship revenue drop. Guess the low freight rate is same for everyone in the industry. By the way NOL is not a small fellow, it is the world no6 container liner plus they got a very big state investor that is our government with our cpf money as backing. Not to mention that APL flag ship under NOL is American national shipping line meaning it is a union of American and Singapore shipping power. APL get the second biggest chuck of US  army container shipping contract after Maesrk in 2012 and that should meant something to everyone. It is more about national interest than pure commercial interest, no money can always draw from temasek massive fund holding as the impact of leaving export to be dominated by the European liners is just too big to ignor. it is the same for Chinese and Korean shipping lines, they lose so much money but still standing cos their state owner keep on pumping new fund to buy more efficient ships to compete in today freight market rate. China last year just introduce a VAT tax on all Chinese port  but later withdrawn just to show industry players  they would not stay idle while other profit off them. It is a case of trade independent where nobody want  their trade to be tied to a few dominated  carriers, die die also must support national shipping line. 
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earlybird14
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 18:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Your assumption is not going to work. Maersk Line, MSC and CMA are not going to be so kind for those littles to catch up and damage the balance. Their 18,000 TEU container progressively delivered, their 2nd round of cost saving coming in and can bring their cost even down and left no room to weak players.

sgng123      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 18:06) Posted:

Gona endure the heart wrenching moment for another 6 months then light would shine. Maesrk Line delivered a very good 2013 result in the environment of low freight rate due to it drive for efficiency and cost cutting. This already proven NOL is on the right track just give it some time to ditch out all the expensive charters and deployment of fuel efficient ships. The current freight rate environment only benefit those who had gone through the painful period of fleet renewal and look like only Maesrk line had done it rest still need to pick up. This year would be NOL turn to turn the corner as it follow Maersk Line path of using and owning  bigger and more fuel efficient ships for the long range trade. Very hard year as bank/brokerage house traders would be trying very hard  to accumulate cheap cheap ship price by pushing down share value and force out the remaining retail investors, go sleep and don monitor stock look like best option. today they got like 10M ship share cheap cheap at 0.95 lol.
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earlybird14
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 18:10     
 
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 Alert Admin

So optimistic as usual.

US has plenty of land and their population distrubuted across from east to west, not like China all located at east. Terminals in US doesn't worth much and it can be disposed and built somewhere else.

Volume is trading so high and down slowly. It is not a simple downtrend. Short covering may not start so early  if the brokers who short it have insider news and confident that NOL will be down further.

As mentioned previously, the billion cash loss in past 3 years are coming from the borrowing of new vessels. NOL only dispose their headquarter and this is not sufficient to cover their loss and majority of these fund are flowing to the impairment loss and compensation for selling the old container vessels at cheap.

Just spend sometime to track back from 2010 to 2012,  1.5 billion dollars of senior notes with 4 to 5% interest were issued and the first come to expired will be in 2017. With the continual loss plus the vessels delivery and etc, NOL debt issue is going to be zone out by the brokers or shortist.

Once this is disclosed, Temasek cannot simply save  NOL as what they support Olam. No matter how, Olam is still a profitable company. NOL is totally a different story. Temasek  privatise NOL mean they are going to bear billion dollar of debt, are they so silly to do that? how they are going to explain to Singaporean for the acquisition.

At the end, NOL may be filed bankrupcy protection. Your share will only worth paper money in 2017. People have been talking this industry recovery since 2009, after  a short recovery in 2010, this industry  just sink again. Total of   6 years talking about recovery but nothing is happen and market is still overcapacity.

No much time left to NOL. It is a time bom.

sgng123      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 17:25) Posted:

Temasek might push button to privatise it as it would not want to risk damaging NOL reputation as a liner company among important customers in US due to SGX watchlist review in march. The Big question is how much is NOL worth, company with stable business partners and revenue worth up to US $8.8B currently. Non Core Asset like the port  terminals they operated in US west coast and Asia plus the appreciation of value in the logistic arm. Real estate value got pushed up a lot during the 5 years of QE money pushing. It is like NatSteel corp u think it is a old fashion company that make metal part but in reality it owns lot of real estate asset which got appreciated a lot but did not put into book account. I remembered in the 90+ NatSteel is like 1 dollars + but when it sold off it non-core asset NatSteel electronic and other stuff the book value shot up 3-4X lol. Hidden Gem to be discovered and NOL is one of those since it is listed in STI for a very long 30+ years, lot of real estate asset it owned  value appreciated a lot. IT is just like NOL building which got sold for like 400M booking in 200M profit lol. They only buy back that building in 1999 lol. But again they might just let NOL go into watchlist this year and next year return it to STI due to better cost management and better global demand. lot of peep in forum bashed down ship cos they lose money there and want us to lose money too lol. IF I am a shortist, I keep low profile and laugh mine way to the bank instead of venting in forum. Lastly to all brave investors who still holding, salute and hope the current selling wave would end soon and short covering start.

darthiliator      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:43) Posted:

I agree, the only catalyst is it's next quarterly report in May, so can you imagine from now to May no Catalyst to push it up. I cannot imagine where is it's bottom.
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sgng123
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27-Feb-2014 18:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Gona endure the heart wrenching moment for another 6 months then light would shine. Maesrk Line delivered a very good 2013 result in the environment of low freight rate due to it drive for efficiency and cost cutting. This already proven NOL is on the right track just give it some time to ditch out all the expensive charters and deployment of fuel efficient ships. The current freight rate environment only benefit those who had gone through the painful period of fleet renewal and look like only Maesrk line had done it rest still need to pick up. This year would be NOL turn to turn the corner as it follow Maersk Line path of using and owning  bigger and more fuel efficient ships for the long range trade. Very hard year as bank/brokerage house traders would be trying very hard  to accumulate cheap cheap ship price by pushing down share value and force out the remaining retail investors, go sleep and don monitor stock look like best option. today they got like 10M ship share cheap cheap at 0.95 lol.
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Azzaramich
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27-Feb-2014 17:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro, i am holding the position....but also holding my breath...this is like on ship, and you see tsunami waves hitting it day after day, with each wave bigger than the last wave.   If Temasek or any substantial shareholder or any senior management / directors buy-in, even if small, it would definitely clam the sentiments.

sgng123      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 17:25) Posted:

Temasek might push button to privatise it as it would not want to risk damaging NOL reputation as a liner company among important customers in US due to SGX watchlist review in march. The Big question is how much is NOL worth, company with stable business partners and revenue worth up to US $8.8B currently. Non Core Asset like the port  terminals they operated in US west coast and Asia plus the appreciation of value in the logistic arm. Real estate value got pushed up a lot during the 5 years of QE money pushing. It is like NatSteel corp u think it is a old fashion company that make metal part but in reality it owns lot of real estate asset which got appreciated a lot but did not put into book account. I remembered in the 90+ NatSteel is like 1 dollars + but when it sold off it non-core asset NatSteel electronic and other stuff the book value shot up 3-4X lol. Hidden Gem to be discovered and NOL is one of those since it is listed in STI for a very long 30+ years, lot of real estate asset it owned  value appreciated a lot. IT is just like NOL building which got sold for like 400M booking in 200M profit lol. They only buy back that building in 1999 lol. But again they might just let NOL go into watchlist this year and next year return it to STI due to better cost management and better global demand. lot of peep in forum bashed down ship cos they lose money there and want us to lose money too lol. IF I am a shortist, I keep low profile and laugh mine way to the bank instead of venting in forum. Lastly to all brave investors who still holding, salute and hope the current selling wave would end soon and short covering start.

darthiliator      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:43) Posted:

I agree, the only catalyst is it's next quarterly report in May, so can you imagine from now to May no Catalyst to push it up. I cannot imagine where is it's bottom.
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cccx123
Elite
27-Feb-2014 17:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		With the global trade volumes going nowhere and supplies of container ships coming in continuously, it is very difficult to see NOL recovering. Shorted NOL with cfd this morning and my position is still open. Even if I didn't, someone else would so yea, might as well. The fundamentals and technicals of this company and stock only indicates the price going south. Even if Temasek were to privatize it, it will be a losing proposition for them to do so at this price. Remember that Temasek is responsible for our CPF and other national reserve monies and it is not expected to be a white knight. Temasek has already overstepped their boundaries with their Olam rescue and can't be seen doing so again unless they want to set a second unwanted precedent.

enjoylife77      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 17:35) Posted:



More supply coming on stream........
Update: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding eyes mega container ships
print  |email this article




[SINGAPORE] Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd, a top Chinese shipbuilder, plans to build more mega container ships for shipowners eager to cut operating costs.

Yangzijiang is China's third-largest listed shipbuilder by market capitalisation and has boasted profit margins that dwarf those of domestic and overseas peers.

Yangzijiang is ready to hand over its first mega container ship in March, which can move around 10,000 standard twenty-foot (TEU) containers, and is planning to build vessels that can handle up to 18,000 boxes.

" We want to make container ships our signature product," said Ren Yuanlin, Yangzijiang's chairman.

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sgng123
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 17:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yup the result not going to be good in 1Q14 either so don bet on it. Currently market is adjusting ship price for a loss in 1Q14 plus there going to be a March SGX review to put company under watchlist with continuous 3 years of loss. NOL put up a notice to inform investor so causing this sell off most likely by CPF investors. 2Q14 onward would see profit returning due to cost saving through charters retiring, better freight rate due to better global demand. In 2013 ship operating cost is very close to the 4Q low freight rate of 2218, excluding all other expenses liner only lose like -15M. This mean that operating cost is 2240 approxi but to make a profit operating cost had to go down to 2100 meaning a profit of US120 per FEU. Need that kind of profit per container to return back to black. 20 charters returned this year would likely lower operating cost to that level provided oil price remain stable. Explain why it is funny why there is selling when everyone in the market saying this year US/Europe economy would stage a recovery.

moneycow      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 17:25) Posted:



Cut early better less pain.

With those kind of result its not going to attract investors to buy up. 

NO future for now for   punting this one............

Shortlist might   play it and   buy back low to make a kill.

Very difficult time.........   Management should   be having some EGM............

 

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enjoylife77
Veteran
27-Feb-2014 17:35     
 
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 Alert Admin

More supply coming on stream........
Update: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding eyes mega container ships
print  |email this article




[SINGAPORE] Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd, a top Chinese shipbuilder, plans to build more mega container ships for shipowners eager to cut operating costs.

Yangzijiang is China's third-largest listed shipbuilder by market capitalisation and has boasted profit margins that dwarf those of domestic and overseas peers.

Yangzijiang is ready to hand over its first mega container ship in March, which can move around 10,000 standard twenty-foot (TEU) containers, and is planning to build vessels that can handle up to 18,000 boxes.

" We want to make container ships our signature product," said Ren Yuanlin, Yangzijiang's chairman.
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sgng123
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 17:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Temasek might push button to privatise it as it would not want to risk damaging NOL reputation as a liner company among important customers in US due to SGX watchlist review in march. The Big question is how much is NOL worth, company with stable business partners and revenue worth up to US $8.8B currently. Non Core Asset like the port  terminals they operated in US west coast and Asia plus the appreciation of value in the logistic arm. Real estate value got pushed up a lot during the 5 years of QE money pushing. It is like NatSteel corp u think it is a old fashion company that make metal part but in reality it owns lot of real estate asset which got appreciated a lot but did not put into book account. I remembered in the 90+ NatSteel is like 1 dollars + but when it sold off it non-core asset NatSteel electronic and other stuff the book value shot up 3-4X lol. Hidden Gem to be discovered and NOL is one of those since it is listed in STI for a very long 30+ years, lot of real estate asset it owned  value appreciated a lot. IT is just like NOL building which got sold for like 400M booking in 200M profit lol. They only buy back that building in 1999 lol. But again they might just let NOL go into watchlist this year and next year return it to STI due to better cost management and better global demand. lot of peep in forum bashed down ship cos they lose money there and want us to lose money too lol. IF I am a shortist, I keep low profile and laugh mine way to the bank instead of venting in forum. Lastly to all brave investors who still holding, salute and hope the current selling wave would end soon and short covering start.

darthiliator      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:43) Posted:

I agree, the only catalyst is it's next quarterly report in May, so can you imagine from now to May no Catalyst to push it up. I cannot imagine where is it's bottom.
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moneycow
Elite
27-Feb-2014 17:25     
 
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Cut early better less pain.

With those kind of result its not going to attract investors to buy up. 

NO future for now for   punting this one............

Shortlist might   play it and   buy back low to make a kill.

Very difficult time.........   Management should   be having some EGM............

 
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sgng123
Supreme
27-Feb-2014 16:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		it is the make or break for ship this time round. The SGX review critical for NOl if it go into the watchlist, reputation at stake explain why lot of selling today tomorrow might see more. It is quite a difficult time for nol investor one hand the world economy are going to stage a recovery and G20 pledge to increase world GDP by 2% over 5 years till 2018.  BDI also start to behave more seasonally normal, going up/down where it should. Temasek soon had to make a decision either to privatise NOL or continue to support it like what they did for Olam when it was attacked shortist 1 year ago. Funny thing is olam still doing well even after attack by renowned shortist lol. Dangerous time for ship, gona hold fast and avoid falling aboard. By the way NOL is cpf certified stock meaning investor can buy with their cpf so guessing lot of cpf investors banking out this week.

Azzaramich      ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 16:38) Posted:

By the way, did the senior management take a pay cut as part of the cost savings measures?
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Azzaramich
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27-Feb-2014 16:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		By the way, did the senior management take a pay cut as part of the cost savings measures?
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