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Yoma Strategic
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YOMA
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Entropy72
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03-Apr-2021 13:36
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This is a possible scenario. Even if democracy is restored with the election promised by the Tatmadaw, it will likely not involve ASSK. May not be a bad thing as younger, dynamic leaders are needed to speed up reforms.
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Entropy72
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03-Apr-2021 13:33
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Not sure if I read you correctly. Myanmar is 99% Facebook - to most folks there, internet = Facebook.
Are you saying US should get Facebook to ban usage in Myanmar so that protestors cannot communicate with one another? And this will then lead to collapse of anti-coup movements and restore stability?
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Observers
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03-Apr-2021 13:19
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US has the biggest leverage as they control all social media in myanmar. they just do to the protesters what they did to ex-potus trump and his supporters then everything will end very quickly.
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SinglePore
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03-Apr-2021 11:53
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This is not the first coup in the country. The military junta was in power before for so long and didn' t need any help from the world. The junta may not feel any urgency to restore democracy anytime soon. They know how to survive from global isolation for a very long time. Yoma' s fate will hang on this status quo. | ||||
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Entropy72
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03-Apr-2021 09:51
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Serge Pun is pro-China. This complicates Yoma's recovery.
------- ?China Get Out of Myanmar? Say Pro-Democracy Supporters Pro-democracy supporters in Myanmar have called for the Chinese Embassy in Yangon to be closed, after China again blocked an attempt on Thursday by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to impose sanctions on the military regime in an attempt to stop the bloodshed in Myanmar. Thousands of pro-democracy supporters, including prominent activists and celebrities, posted messages on their social media on Thursday and Friday saying, ?China Get Out of Myanmar!?, ?Get Out Chinese Embassy!? ?We don?t need Chinese Embassy, Get out of Myanmar Right Now!!? At least 550 civilians have died in the junta?s ongoing crackdowns against anti-regime protesters. Many people in Myanmar expected that the rising death toll would prompt the UNSC to apply ?serious pressure? on the junta to stop its use of lethal force against protesters. But China again ruled out ?sanctions or other coercive measures? against the regime at a UNSC closed door meeting. Moreover, China insisted on eliminating strong language from the UNSC statement such as ?readiness to consider further steps?, which could include sanctions against the Myanmar military. The UN also had to soften the language of the statement by removing words such as ?killing? and ?deplore? to describe the use of violence against peaceful protesters, because of China?s resistance to such language. China?s stance prompted a fresh outpouring of resentment towards China among the people of Myanmar. Anti-China sentiment is nothing new in Myanmar. It hardened over fifty years of rule by the former junta that relied on Beijing as one of its few international allies and which turned to China for much of the hardware it used to suppress dissent, grab people?s land and exploit the country?s natural resources. That deep-seated resentment of China swelled across Myanmar following the Feb.1 coup, thanks to China?s failure to take action against the junta, unlike the many western countries who have imposed sanctions. China has also failed to demonstrate sympathy towards the innocent civilians killed by the regime?s security forces during their deadly crackdowns, prompting many Myanmar people to believe that Beijing is supporting the junta. Among the thousands of responses to China?s latest stand at the UNSC, one Twitter user said, ?You have our blood on your hands Chinese Communist Party! Chinese Embassy Out Now!! Faker, Loser!? Another social media user said Shame on you China! They went on to say that civilians in Myanmar were being killed by the military every day, that China didn?t care about Myanmar?s people and that they only support the junta. ?China is killing our future. You again blocked the UNSC. We don?t need a Chinese embassy in Myanmar,? stated another social media user. The Burmese actress Khin Win Wah called for a boycott of Chinese-made goods. ?It is time to boycott all Chinese-made products.? A Twitter user said, ?China is one of the few allies of the military regime and supports the killing of pro-democracy supporters. Please Chinese ambassador, it is time to leave Myanmar. We don?t need you.? On Wednesday, the United States called for China to use its influence to hold to account those responsible for the coup, saying that Beijing can certainly do more as China has a great deal of leverage. Washington said, ?We want the government in Beijing to use its leverage constructively to support the absolutely legitimate aspirations of the people of Burma to see their democracy restored.? Ko Bo Kyi, the joint secretary of Myanmar?s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners urged on Twitter that China needs to understand that the Burmese people have already suffered at the hands of illegal military regimes. Action by the UNSC will be helpful for the Burmese people, he said. Another Twitter user wrote that China?s stand at the UNSC showed that Beijing has no intention of helping Myanmar. They said that China should choose to side with the more than 50 million Myanmar people instead of with inhumane generals and that China should choose a long-term relationship with the Myanmar people, not one with the leaders of a coup. |
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 11:01
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NEW YORK ? The international community, including one of Myanmar?s biggest investors, Japan, should immediately cut off foreign direct investment into the country until an elected government is restored, urged Myanmar?s United Nations Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun.
The diplomat ? who a month ago defied the junta?s orders and made a sweeping denunciation of the military takeover at the U.N. General Assembly ? sat down with Nikkei Asia on Thursday to discuss the crisis in his home country and shared his messages to various international actors, including the U.S., Japan, China and ASEAN countries. ?Time is really of the essence for the people of Myanmar,? he said. ?We need to save lives of innocent civilians, so we keep requesting, we keep appealing [to] the international community to take as strong as possible measures to stop? the violence and protect the people of Myanmar. The crisis in Myanmar has continued to escalate after the country fell victim to a military coup on Feb. 1. The junta?s recent killing of innocent civilians, including children, has prompted a new round of rebuke and sanctions from the international community. Speaking to Nikkei, Kyaw Moe Tun pleaded with the international community to immediately provide protection to the people of Myanmar ?from crimes against humanity committed by the military.? This includes giving humanitarian aid, establishing no-fly zones in the country, cutting off financial flows to the military regime, and suspending foreign direct investment ? requests he said he made in a March 29 letter to the U.N. secretary-general. Addressing some international observers? concerns that broad economic sanctions might also hurt the welfare of the people of Myanmar, the diplomat pointed to the urgency and gravity of the situation on the ground. ?The spillover effect will be definitely there, so the request that we can make is to make it minimum,? he said. ?But at the same time, look at the situation that we are facing: people being killed, people being murdered, people being arrested arbitrarily, and people being beaten,? he said. The comparison is between the economic impact and the need to save lives, he said. The impact on the economy can be addressed at a later stage. Amid protests and the military leadership?s bloody crackdown, Myanmar?s economy is already in tatters. The Myanmar envoy expressed thanks for the support from the international community, including the government of Japan, pointing to the two countries? long history of ties and close relationship. He said he was also struck and moved by the outpour of support by the people of Japan, many of whom took to the streets to protest the coup. But at the same time, Kyaw Moe Tun also hopes to see tougher actions from Myanmar?s old friend. ?Japan is one of the top investors in Myanmar, and so please review it, suspend the business link with Myanmar until democracy returns to the country,? he said. ?And then also the banking sector: please look at the financial flows into the military regime. Please get [them] off.? The diplomat also stressed the role of Washington?s response to the crisis, applauding the sanctions it has imposed so far, including a recent move to suspend all U.S. trade engagement with Myanmar. American trade flows with the Asian country are relatively limited to begin with. But Kyaw Moe Tun said Washington?s response is important because ?whatever action taken by the United States will be a solid example for other countries to follow suit.? As for China, the ambassador pointed out that there is a perception among the people of Myanmar that Beijing sides with the military regime. ?So what I see is that [now] is the best time for the China to show that they are with the people, not with the military,? he said. To achieve this, Beijing can condemn the military coup and the violence committed by the military, refuse to recognize the military regime, and stop dealing with the military regime militarily, economically and diplomatically, he said. Regarding the role of ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, Kyaw Moe Tun said that ?we appreciate the role of the ASEAN, but at the same time we have to be realistic [about] how much the ASEAN can help in this difficult situation.? But he hopes that the U.S. and China can have a joint effort with the support of ASEAN countries, despite deep tensions between the two great powers. Asked whether he was satisfied with Security Council?s statement, which stopped short of calling the military takeover a coup, the diplomat said he understands that such language is difficult to include in a press statement, which requires a consensus among members. In an extraordinary speech before the U.N. General Assembly on Feb. 26, Kyaw Moe Tun called on other member states to ?use any means necessary? to act against the military regime and protect the people of Myanmar, saying the ?coup must fail.? He ended his remarks with a three-finger salute ? a ?Hunger Games? gesture that has become a symbol of resistance in Myanmar. The military leadership had also prepared a statement for him to deliver ? one that he disregarded. Thinking that he should use this opportunity to have the maximum impact on the crisis in Myanmar, the ambassador communicated to Christine Schraner Burgener, the U.N. special envoy on Myanmar, that he hoped her statement would be ?as strong as possible.? On that day, Burgener urged countries not to ?lend legitimacy or recognition? to the military regime for the first time since the Feb. 1 coup, saying the coup was a clear violation of the country?s constitution. Kyaw Moe Tun was told by the military regime to step down from his U.N. post but has since remained the permanent representative of Myanmar to the U.N. ?I?m appointed by the elected government, so that the only way I can be removed is by the elected government,? he told Nikkei. He said he was not concerned about his safety, thanks to the support from the U.S. as a U.N. host country as well as the local Burmese community here. |
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 10:56
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YANGON ? Myanmar?s military regime has ordered internet service providers to shut down wireless broadband services days after business groups collectively requested a halt to internet service disruptions.
In a mobile text to customers, telco operator Ooredoo said the junta-appointed Ministry of Transport and Communications issued a directive today instructing ?all wireless broadband data services to be temporarily suspended from today until further notice.? Nikkei Asia separately verified the order with another industry source. Cutting all Wi-Fi based on fixed wireless access will add to the growing restrictions on Myanmar?s telecommunications and internet space. The junta already imposed a total data blackout twice since the coup, blocked social media platforms and websites, put in place a nightly internet shutdown, and banned mobile internet access. Further reducing internet access will likely raise fears about the worsening violence by the security forces. As of 31 March, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners recorded a total of 536 people killed by the junta and 2729 detained. Ahead of the suspension of internet services, social media was flooded with posts and tweets reflecting anxiety of the impending news blackout, with some listing recommended independent FM radio stations as the only way to sustain protest momentum : ?Myanmar is slowly fading from your feeds. Many of us fear it?s only a matter of time before there is a complete blackout? Please never stop shouting for us,? a young Myanmar woman tweeted. The move would particularly hit communications of the rural population because fiber networks are primarily in big cities like Yangon. In total there are approximately 600,000 on ?fiber to the home? (FTTH), according to one industry estimate. Telco company Mytel, a joint venture between the Burmese and Vietnamese military and currently hit by a huge consumer boycott in Myanmar, is the biggest operator in the FTTH market, said one industry source. A Myanmar analyst who goes by the name Ye Salween said the order is an attempt by the military authorities to further limit news flow and communications, because most general households in Myanmar use wireless Wi-Fi services instead of the FTTH. ?The regime has cut mobile data for two weeks. But there remain a lot of information and news posted on social media, while media outlets are still reporting the news on the ground, including photos and videos,? Ye Salween told Nikkei Asia. ?Taking down wireless Wi-Fi could be a test run on two issues ? how much they can reduce the news flow, and how much this would affect businesses. If news flow reduces but impact on the bank and business operations is limited, the military would likely maintain the blocking,? he added. The junta appears to have been brushing aside business concerns despite repeated emphasis by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and his appointees on being pro-business. Four leading foreign chambers of commerce representing Australian, British, French and New Zealand businesses on Tuesday publicly condemned the atrocities and raised their concerns about internet service restrictions. ?Business operations have also become extremely challenging, particularly disruptions to internet services. We all rely on [the] internet, and without it many basic services cannot be provided to millions of Myanmar citizens,? the signatories said. A majority of foreign chambers of commerce in Yangon, via a collective statement, also asked for unrestricted information access and free flow of information. Army spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said last month that there were no plans to lift internet restrictions, claiming that violence was being provoked online. The rule of law and stability were ?most important? for Myanmar, he added. ?The junta?s top priority is to quell the protests and all other forms of resistance. They are ignoring pleas from businesses for the sake of any resemblance of ?stability? for now,? said analyst Ye Salween. ?The generals probably think big companies run with direct fiber access and expect disruption to be limited. But I doubt they realize how consumers and small businesses won?t be able to operate without Wireless.? |
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Shifu8888
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02-Apr-2021 08:52
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This journalistic way of writing is extra.
Keep it simple. What will happen: Civil War. What will happen to Civilians during Civil War: Run What should happen to Yoma Investors? Quickly RUN
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 08:47
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Expert, the selling will resume when Yoma announces its half yearly results in a few weeks. Company has been silent so far, hence investors are complacent.
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ysh2006
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02-Apr-2021 07:10
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The army self ceased fire one month good or not ?
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TA_Expert
Supreme |
02-Apr-2021 03:06
Yells: "The World has changed" |
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 Will enter if it drops to $0.10 but seems not possible as selling has dried up.
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 01:43
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Investors of Yoma should not look at the company itself, but do due diligence on what is happening in Myanmar. The situation is escalating and this is not a movie with a climax, followed by resumption of normalcy. Normalcy is very far away. | ||||
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 01:39
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Who Failed Myanmar?
The bloodshed in Myanmar continues unabated with the casualties reaching over 500 deaths as of last week. The imposition of martial law in various parts of the country remains intact. The Committee Regsu Hluttaw (CRPH)?the self-proclaimed ?shadow government? of Myanmar?wants to arm itself to defend the planned provisional government. Global condemnation has been loud and widespread. The endgame is likely to be a war of attrition between the civil disobedience movement, the military, and all the stakeholders, both inside and outside of this Golden Land. For those who know Myanmar?s history, it is a case of back to the future, only this time it is bleaker and more unpredictable. Sad as it is, the singular question needs to be asked: Why does Myanmar find itself in this black hole? Who failed Myanmar? Frankly, the answer is quite simple?everyone who is involved, directly and indirectly. While the international community, especially the UN, has been ferocious in its condemnation of the atrocities committed by the Myanmar military (or Tatmadaw) since its power seizure on Feb. 1, it has been completely forgotten that this horrible situation was not only of the Tatmadaw?s making. It takes two to tango in this case, the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Tatmadaw locked horns, leading to a breakdown. Indeed, the positions and personalities of those institutions? leaders?Daw Aung San Sun Kyi and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing?and their perceptions of one another, must be factored in. The Tatmadaw has sought to maintain what it sees as its political legitimacy throughout Myanmar?s nascent experiment with parliamentary democracy, as stipulated in the 2008 Constitution. The NLD, meanwhile, emboldened by its overwhelming poll victory in November, believed falsely that it could govern Myanmar solely and proceed with long-delayed constitutional amendments to reduce and eventually eliminate the military from the political arena?perhaps for good. As widely reported, the negotiations between the NLD and the Tatmadaw on Jan. 26 over the latter?s request that the Union Election Commission investigate its allegation of election fraud were tense but seemed headed for a mutual agreement. Less than 40 hours later, however, the talks broke down irreparably. The military takeover that followed was not a total shock given the rumors that swirled in the week prior. The military misjudged and underestimated the level and intensity of the aversion of the public to the return of military rule. Street protests started off as civil disobedience, receiving support both moral and monetary from across the border and elsewhere. The three-finger salute made trendy by Thai student protesters became a symbol of defiance at Myanmar people?s protests against the Tatmadaw. The West immediately jumped in, but at the same time did not want to get its feet wet. Its supported and urged ASEAN to pressure Myanmar to roll back the takeover and return to the pre-Feb. 1 status quo. Easier said than done. Although ASEAN has a proud 54-year history of handling numerous crises within the bloc, the current Myanmar crisis was unexpected, especially with governments distracted by efforts to contain the coronavirus?as was ASEAN members? failure to reach a consensus on what to do with Myanmar. It is the first time ASEAN has broken its own cardinal rule of non-interference in the internal affairs of other ASEAN members. Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia openly and muscularly opposed the Tatmadaw government, while the rest of the bloc adopted a milder response. This time around, if the Myanmar military was expecting ASEAN to provide a safe space for them to try to work with the international community, their hopes have been dashed by the past two months and its reign of terror. The Tatmadaw said it was the servant of the people and would ?safeguard democracy?. But its current cruelty speaks volumes about its intentions and has further inculcated hatred towards it among the population. The junta can survive the targeted international sanctions but it will be difficult for it to coexist with its neighbors, which could lead to its self-imposed isolation. Either way, it?s a lose-lose proposition. Now, the only way for the junta to get out of its current conundrum is to engage and respond in concrete ways with the demands put out by the ASEAN chair and individual members thereafter. Most importantly, the killing must stop immediately and a dialog process should kick off. Indonesian President Joko ?Jokowi? Widodo has already proposed a high-level meeting of ASEAN leaders on the Myanmar crisis. So far, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines have responded positively to his overture. Other leaders have not yet replied. It is now up to the chair, Sultan Hassanal Bokiah of Brunei, whether to call for such a leaders? meeting, which would be unprecedented within the context of an internal issue of a member state. Meanwhile, the NLD resistance has gained momentum with its attempts to establish a ?shadow government?, the CRPH. The remarks of the Myanmar Permanent Representative to the UN, who held up three fingers while he spoke, let the world know that the NLD was the legitimate government of Myanmar. Some hasty makeshift arrangements were made by some powerful friends to make the CRPH a credible entity. Overnight, the CRPH went from nowhere to having an office in Maryland in the US. Amidst the clueless international efforts to condemn and punish the Tatmadaw, the brave street protests in Myanmar have grown larger and more widespread. It was only in the last few days that the numbers dwindled somewhat. The Tatmadaw felt they had to put down the unrest quickly before armed minority groups join the fray and more money from overseas flows into Myanmar to fuel the protests. In handling Myanmar, its long history must be heeded. All concerned players must come to terms with the following realities: The Tatmadaw will not allow itself to be written off, as the colonial power did to it. It has taken the army several decades to rebuild itself to deal with external aggression and 135 minority groups, 18 of them fully armed, not to mention thousands of militias. The army perceives itself as the protector of the nation. Those who know Myanmar will be aware that the people are headstrong, unyielding and keep their word. The Tatmadaw has already laid out a five-step plan to hold an election within this year. This pledge must be kept. It is reasonable to believe that the NLD and its leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will not be participating in the next election in the same shape or form as the last one. China will wisely avoid being drawn into the Myanmar political and security quagmire. It will do just enough to maintain relations with the Tatmadaw to protect its interests?no more, no less. The West is the biggest question mark. It must understand more of the country, its history as well as the social, psychological and cultural contexts of Myanmar. If it insists on imposing its Western values and standards on this highly complex society, and decides to adopt its familiar modus operandi, as it did in Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc., not only the West, but the world will lose Myanmar. The most worrying ASEAN member is Thailand. With a 2,401-km-long border with Myanmar and intertwined trade, commerce and labor sectors, the ramifications of the protracted conflicts in Myanmar will be far-reaching and multifaceted for Thailand?s economy, politics and security. Bangkok is worried about the prospect of an influx of refugees from Myanmar. All those who truly wish to see peace and stability return to Myanmar must immediately stop meddling and start dialogs with the Tatmadaw and other stakeholders. If they were part of the problem, they have to be part of the solution. Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs. |
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 01:31
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Simultaneous Blazes at Two Myanmar Military-Owned Malls Raise Suspicions of Regime Plot
Two military-owned shopping malls in Yangon?one downtown and another in the northern part of the city?burned down early on Thursday morning. Photos that went viral online show the charred remains of Ruby Mart in the city center, burned beyond recognition. The Gandamar Wholesale center in Mayangone Township was seriously damaged in a separate blaze that was still smoldering after sunrise. So far, the causes of the fires remain unknown, as does the extent of the financial losses. On Myanmar?s most popular social media platform, Facebook, people reacted to the news with jubilation, as everyone knows that the malls are run by the military. But many also pointed out that the timing and locations of the blazes raise a number of questions. According to Yangon?s Fire Services Department, both fires broke out at around 2 in the morning?during the curfew hours (8 p.m. to 4 a.m.) when civilians are not allowed outdoors. The department said the causes of the fires are not yet known. Facebook users pointed out that whatever the causes, and whoever was responsible, it is the malls? insurers, not the military, who will foot the bill. Many people have expressed suspicions that the regime torched the malls as a pretext to crack down on ?rioters? trying to destabilize the country under the ?influence of Western countries?. Such speculation is fueled by the nightly claims by newscasters on state-run TV that government offices, local level administration offices and police stations have come under attack by ?rioters??the military?s euphemism for anti-regime protesters. It should be noted that Thursday?s fires coincided with a visit to Myanmar by CNN reporter Clarissa Ward. On Thursday morning, the network?s chief international correspondent was seen at Gandamar Wholesale after the fire was put out, accompanied by authorities many fear she has been fed the regime?s official narrative. She was also seen in some Yangon neighborhoods on Wednesday with an army escort, apparently being given a guided tour by the regime. Many people are concerned that restrictions on her access will give her a distorted view of what is actually happening on the ground. The malls? locations and surroundings would appear to make them difficult targets for anti-military arsonists. Ruby Mart is on Bogyoke Aung San Road, partially ensconced in a densely populated neighborhood. Any residents staging such an attack would put their own lives at risk. Furthermore, several meters away from the mall, columns of soldiers have been camped in the City Hall since February. The Central Fire Station is in the vicinity as well. Given the huge scale of the devastation at Ruby Mart, it seems unlikely it was caused by the Molotov cocktails or homemade bombs the regime has long claimed protesters are using to commit arson. The ground floor was sealed off with roller shutters, making it impossible for inflammable projectiles thrown from the road to penetrate the building. Gandamar Wholesale enjoys a more spacious location. It is separated by a large compound from the nearest residential area, and the main road outside provides a natural defense against projectiles. Right across the road, a branch of military-owned Myawaddy Bank, protected by a heavy security force, is located. It is likely that the regime will break its silence on the incidents soon. Any claims by the junta that both were the result of arson attacks by ?rioters? are unlikely to be met with surprise from the public. |
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Entropy72
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02-Apr-2021 01:28
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Chinese Troops Gather on Myanmar?s Border to ?Protect Pipelines?
Several sources on the Chinese border reported that troops were gathering in Jiegao, opposite the Shan State border town of Muse. Many Chinese soldiers and military trucks have arrived at the border in previous days. Sources from ethnic armed groups said China was sending a warning signal to Myanmar. TVBS News in Taiwan reported that Chinese troops are there to protect the natural gas pipeline without suggesting how. In early March, the Chinese asked Myanmar?s military regime to protect the oil and gas pipelines following the emergence of anti-Chinese sentiment and protesters threatening to blow up the pipelines. The 800-km twin pipeline project runs from Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State on the Bay of Bengal through Magwe and Mandalay regions and northern Shan State to China. China has repeatedly insisted that the armed forces? seizure of power from the democratically elected government is an internal affair, including at the United Nations Security Council and UN Human Rights Council. In February, the Chinese Embassy in Yangon faced daily protests, demanding Beijing stops support for Myanmar?s military. Moreover, anti-Chinese sentiment has emerged in Myanmar, including boycotts of Chinese products. On Monday, the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta?ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army (AA) condemned the military junta after the civilian death toll rose to over 500. The three groups warned the military that they would collaborate with other ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy supporters to defend civilians from the regime?s brutal crackdowns. All three armies are based along the Chinese border and the AA also has substantial forces in northern Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh. They can all challenge Myanmar?s military and have close relations with China. |
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Entropy72
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01-Apr-2021 16:48
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BANGKOK/YANGON ? Forces opposing Myanmar?s coup raised the stakes significantly on Wednesday, announcing plans to set up a ?unity government? under a new federal charter and abolish the 2008 military-drafted constitution. The opposition Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) said the new charter would draw together a broad array including ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), elected lawmakers and civil society groups.
The move appears to set the stage for a violent showdown between forces of the junta, or State Administration Council, and a parallel government made up of members of the ousted National League for Democracy administration as well as technocrats and political activists. The announcement comes amid fierce clashes between government forces and ethnic armed groups in eastern and northern Myanmar, extending the military?s violence against civilians protesting the Feb. 1 coup and fueling concerns that the country could descend into civil war. Stressing the urgency of the crisis in an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, the U.N. special envoy on Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener warned on Wednesday night of a ?civil war? and an ?imminent bloodbath.? She urged the council to weigh ?potentially significant action that can reverse the course of events.? The opposition group?s plans to set up a unity government have galvanized resistance to the coup, attracting more than $7 million worth of support within a few days on a crowdfunding platform. The group?s ?acting ministers? have been received in Western capitals. But some critics, including the Taihe Institute, a Beijing-based think tank backed by the Chinese Communist Party, dismissed its proposals as futile, saying that no country has recognized the body as the parallel government, despite its international diplomacy. However, some analysts said that a show of support from ethnic minority organizations, which between them have about 26 armed groups in regions in Myanmar?s west, east and north, near the Chinese border. It remained unclear on Wednesday night how many armed ethnic groups would support the opposition proposals. ?But the launch of a federal charter could make a difference, as it would represent unity among the CRPH as the civilian government and ethnic armed groups,? said Jason Tower, Myanmar country director of the United States Institute of Peace think tank. ?If [it has] any chance at all, a united resistance is more likely to prevail,? he added. The CRPH on Wednesday night also announced a decision to abolish the existing 2008 constitution, written by the military to guarantee the military an outsize role in governing Myanmar, notably in appointing lawmakers and controlling three key ministries in the security field. The abrogation of that charter would meet a key demand of ethnic communities, bolstering support among EAOs for the parallel government, another analyst said. Myanmar?s ethnic groups, which make up about a third of the country?s 54 million population, had been relatively quiet until last week, although many voiced opposition to the coup. Ten ethnic armed groups allowed a cease-fire agreement they signed under the previous government of President Thein Sein to lapse. But the three additional groups that let their cease-fire agreement expire on Wednesday are among the most significant in terms of firepower and fighting forces. Heavy fighting since Saturday including aerial bombing of villages in the eastern part of Myanmar controlled by the Karen National Union (KNU) have sent thousands of Myanmar refugees fleeing across the Thai border. The junta on Wednesday evening announced a one-month nationwide cease-fire and unilateral suspension of its operations against ethnic armed groups until April 30. But it qualified the statement, saying security forces would continue ?defending against actions that disrupt government security and administration.? It was not clear how much weight the announcement carried, since similar ones in the past did not stop the military from attacking ethnic armed groups. Earlier clashes had sent nearly 3,000 refugees fleeing across the Thai border and into northern Kachin State on Wednesday. The military?s unilateral cease-fire gambit could signal an attempt to prevent armed groups from forming a unity government with the CRPH, said Philipp Annawitt, who was an adviser to Myanmar?s parliament and government until Feb. 1 Thailand sought to publicly assure that it would provide ?temporary shelter? to refugees, but reports and video footage showing refugees being pushed back by Thai security forces have highlighted uncertainty over Thailand?s refugee policy. If the junta launches a major offensive on Karen state, with potentially thousands of ground troops, it would be significant because the military has not attacked the KNU in such a scale for a long time, and because many dissidents and democracy leaders are located there. The KNU?s halting of cross-border supplies from Thailand, recent seizure of a military outpost by its armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army, during which the military suffered a humiliating loss of lives and ammunition, public criticism of the coup and engagement with CRPH are seen as seriously challenging the regime?s grip over the country, according to a Karen analyst in Yangon who specializes in ethnic conflict and politics. ?All of these actions put together, including sheltering activists fleeing Bamar areas and the pledge to protect anti-coup protesters, have driven the Tatmadaw ballistic and say, ?OK, you need to stop now. We are going to show you what we are capable of,'? the analyst told Nikkei Asia, using the local name for the military, Tatmadaw. The fighting intensified on Wednesday and spread to northern Kachin and central Shan states, the day that a fragile cease-fire agreement between three main ethnic armed organizations and the military expired. The three, the Arakan Army, based in western Myanmar near Rakhine State the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in the northeast and Ta?ang National Liberation Army in central-northern Myanmar, form the Brotherhood Alliance. The three have previously issued joint statements, cited the junta?s violence against unarmed civilians and threatened to launch an offensive against the military. The collapse of the cease-fire agreement and negotiations between the ethnic armed groups and military leaders came after heavy fighting flared up between the regime and the KNU. The move by the ethnic armed groups to abandon their cease-fire agreements raises the prospect that Myanmar?s military could face active fighting groups on at least three main fronts ? to the east, west and north of the main city, Yangon. More significantly, the three groups warned the military that they would collaborate with other ethnic armed organizations and anti-coup protesters to counter the regime?s bloody crackdown if the violence continued. There are about 26 ethnic armed organizations operating in Myanmar, ranging from barely 200 or so fighters up to the largest, the United Wa State Army, which is based in the Wa autonomous region in northern Shan state and is estimated to have a standing army of more than 40,000 fighters. The statement by ethnic groups, featuring the Chinese-speaking Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, based in the northeast area of Kokang near the border with China, is also likely to have implications for the Wa group, which has been silent since the Feb. 1 coup. ?The statement is further indication that the vast majority of Myanmar?s ethnic armed groups no longer see the Tatmadaw as legitimate, and that they are unwilling to negotiate with it,? said USIP?s Tower. The Arakan Army had previously signaled an intention to negotiate with the military, and had been hesitant to speak out before issuing the joint statement, noted Tower. ?Following the horrific violence across the country, Rakhine civil society became increasingly vocal, demanding first that the Rakhine political parties condemn the military?s actions, and make clear their intentions not to collaborate with the military. This has certainly also played a role in shifting the [Arakan Army?s] position. The [Arakan Army] is in a stronger position to speak out now that the group has met many of its military and political objectives, including taking significant territory in Rakhine State and getting the junta to remove the ?terrorist? designation against them,? he added. But the regime?s strength could be tested if internal fighting breaks out, said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based regional defense consultant. ?Fighting to date has been fairly contained geographically as none of the ethnic factions has gone on a general offensive. This could change rapidly however, particularly if the so-called Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan and Rakhine states enter the fray,? he said. Such a development would inevitably trigger a large-scale response from the junta involving sustained air and heavy artillery strikes in addition to ground force deployments, he noted. ?Under those circumstances, full-scale conflict in the borderlands would inevitably spill over into the cities of central Myanmar in a multifront civil war.? But Annawitt, the former government adviser, noted differences to the example of the Syrian civil war. ?Min Aung Hlaing [junta chief] and the [State Administration Council] do not have a clear territorial base. The junta enjoys modest support among the security forces and some economic elites but nowhere are their supporters in the majority,? he noted. Without a base, the army would start losing ground to a coalition of ethnic armed organizations fighting in the borders and resistance in Bamar heartlands, he added. ?They have no safe haven to retrench? If the generals lose, they lose decisively.? ?Myanmar?s scenario is very different from Syria where Assad had always had a safe haven where his sect was in a clear majority, which was untouched by war and where the government and the economy were still working.? In Davis?s view, a ?best case? scenario might involve ASEAN diplomacy, if the regional bloc could ?summon up the courage and cohesion to persuade the Tatmadaw command to step back from the brink.? ?But given ASEAN?s calamitous incapacity to act swiftly in crisis mediation mode and Tatmadaw?s own intransigence and paranoia, that seems increasingly improbable,? he said. ?If the main ethnic factions see this as an opportunity to finally break the back of military rule in Myanmar, a more likely scenario is a descent into civil war across much of the country.? |
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mav1ryan
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01-Apr-2021 13:50
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Feel bad for our Myanmar friends, and is damn glad and lucky we live in Singapore... | ||||
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laksaman57
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01-Apr-2021 13:48
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https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/myanmar-military-likely-behind-crimes-against-humanity-un-expert-14387142
"GENEVA: Myanmar's military is likely committing "crimes against humanity", the UN's top expert on rights in the country ..." |
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mav1ryan
Veteran |
01-Apr-2021 13:42
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already killed 500+ people per official report... unofficial one is per your imagination... The military cannot back out liao, arbo they will be court martial if the democrates took back the government.
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laksaman57
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01-Apr-2021 13:42
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Too late for Junta to reverse course and they know it. More likely going forward will be Public Relation/Delay/Attack/ Re-org cycle.
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