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sgng123 Supreme	25-Aug-2015 10:22        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bunker price collapse 7% last nite from US$230 to US$212, we are approaching the historic lows of the 2008 global financial crisis. This is a really weird senario, recession level commodity pricing but no major downturn in trade nor another financial crisis. China crashed again 6% this morning to 3000 on Shanghai index and most likely china government would intervene again and stabilise the market till another rout occurs again. With oil in free fall, we are see bunker price going down below US$200 for 2H which is a boon to container shipping considering the very low freigth rate. How NOL perform would depend greatly on the ship ultilisation rate and elimination of unprofitable tradelane and expensive charter. Low freight rate is a function of  low fuel oil so no biggy when rate go south as crude oil follow it after. If crude oil crash to below US$30 that would really be a eye opener, currently WTI = US$38.50, Brent = US$43+
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buysellbuysell Master	24-Aug-2015 22:37        buysellbuysell About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "someone please sell down low so that others can buy low"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	maintain sell call for this counter NOL, follow temasek moves and move away, you are buying what others are unloading on you,. no APL, low margin, it will probably be a married deal, it is not a open market buy over. think again. buysellbuysell      ( Date: 23-Jul-2015 23:23) Posted: maintain sell call for this counter NOL, due to follow temasek moves. temasek holdings won' t be temasek holdings now if they do not have a group of smart team. one thing for certain... NOL is not attractive without APL, saddled with debt and very low margins on shipping. you can buy probably if you wanna go against the flow. but you may only see paper for quite some time. buysellbuysell      ( Date: 17-Jul-2015 19:47) Posted: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/temasek-holdings-selling-nol-report temasek holdings selling off NOL... without APL... probably at break even price or at a so called " gain" indirect loss... temasek holdings probably have very clever moves now with the intent of cutting off it' s losses (non-performing asset portfolios) with the sale of 67% stake in NOL... APL was probably sold as the debt was probably sky high with tons of interest to pay and need to cut debt, that' s why NOL sold off APL to reduce debt either by payment or mortgage via paper play probably...
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mrbean249 Senior	24-Aug-2015 17:47        mrbean249 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Interesting, thanks for all ur insights sgng123 sgng123      ( Date: 24-Aug-2015 17:29) Posted: you just need to check the listing requirement for SGX, company need to have 3 continously years of profit before they can be consider to be listed in SGX. NOL continue to stay listed due to the fact that it market capitalisation is well over $2Billlion kept listed purely by the fact temasek owned 67% of stock and can keep maintaining the minimum market capitalisation. To be in SGX watchlist, 3 year of losses and less than 50 mil market capitalisation. Ship is being artifically keep listed by Temasek and now Temasek wanna let go of it by puting NOL up for Sale followed by eventually buyout of remaining share holder if it can find a buyer for it. IF no buyer then Temasek high chance would take NOL private since don cost a lot of money since it only need to buy out 33% or 850mil share it don owned. Anyway temasek already spent like US$2 Billion in 2004 to push up holding from 30% to currently 67%, just need to throw in 1-1.5B more to completely take it private since singapore still need to maintain it own shipping line if a buyer cannot be found. All this might happen when 3Q result out in 30 Oct , most likely ship would returned to sustainable profit margin and temasek can priced NOL in fair value. Current stock valuation is just too low for even temasek to consider selling. Tomorrow STI might test 2800 resistance level if no stabilisation occurs. Blood bath all over asia today everyone loses like 5% in stock valuation.
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sgng123 Supreme	24-Aug-2015 17:29        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	you just need to check the listing requirement for SGX, company need to have 3 continously years of profit before they can be consider to be listed in SGX. NOL continue to stay listed due to the fact that it market capitalisation is well over $2Billlion kept listed purely by the fact temasek owned 67% of stock and can keep maintaining the minimum market capitalisation. To be in SGX watchlist, 3 year of losses and less than 50 mil market capitalisation. Ship is being artifically keep listed by Temasek and now Temasek wanna let go of it by puting NOL up for Sale followed by eventually buyout of remaining share holder if it can find a buyer for it. IF no buyer then Temasek high chance would take NOL private since don cost a lot of money since it only need to buy out 33% or 850mil share it don owned. Anyway temasek already spent like US$2 Billion in 2004 to push up holding from 30% to currently 67%, just need to throw in 1-1.5B more to completely take it private since singapore still need to maintain it own shipping line if a buyer cannot be found. All this might happen when 3Q result out in 30 Oct , most likely ship would returned to sustainable profit margin and temasek can priced NOL in fair value. Current stock valuation is just too low for even temasek to consider selling. Tomorrow STI might test 2800 resistance level if no stabilisation occurs. Blood bath all over asia today everyone loses like 5% in stock valuation.
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mrbean249 Senior	24-Aug-2015 16:37        mrbean249 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually i have never heard of SGX questioning the business model of a company before leh.. i dont think SGX really cares what the company does. sgng123      ( Date: 24-Aug-2015 13:47) Posted:   What i meant is total delist from SGX, no ocean transport business can remain listed by purely ocean shipping only. Sooner or later SGX would ask NOL for more clarity on it business model which is highly risky, explain why temasek busy looking for a buyer after APLL is being sold. Lastly if no buyers is found, temasek would have to do a privatisation of NOL by offering a acceptable exit price for remaining 33%. Last time in 2004 they offer 1.2X P/B but fail to take it private. This time round they might up the price to 1.3X P/B to get a better chance. Well NOL finally get a hold on it operating expense by exiting the loss making trade lane so might get a better price due to restructured business model. Currently P/B = 0.6X and NAV = S1.41. So u see it heavily undervalued by market capitalisation, that why cannot value ship by stock price, it is just too inaccurate to reflect real value. In good time share price can and will surge to over 2-3X P/B valuation, so no way to value ship according to stock price. That expalin why i mention ship sooner or later would be delisted due to  uncertain profitability business model. For now enjoy the heavy  blood bath in asian stock market, don go in yet more falls expected and if currency devaluation hehe u gona see massive fund outflow.
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sgng123 Supreme	24-Aug-2015 16:02        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	every stocks in SGX drop by 5% average with defensive counter dropping 2.5%. The carnage continue in afternoon, maybe tomorrow would get some short covering but overall trend is bear market until china economy rebound or fed rate hike finalised. by the way bunker oil had crashed below US$250 to US$230, might see more freight rate erosion corresponding to crude oil tanking. So don get all exciting if freight rate reach all time low, it a function of lower oil price.
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sgng123 Supreme	24-Aug-2015 13:47        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What i meant is total delist from SGX, no ocean transport business can remain listed by purely ocean shipping only. Sooner or later SGX would ask NOL for more clarity on it business model which is highly risky, explain why temasek busy looking for a buyer after APLL is being sold. Lastly if no buyers is found, temasek would have to do a privatisation of NOL by offering a acceptable exit price for remaining 33%. Last time in 2004 they offer 1.2X P/B but fail to take it private. This time round they might up the price to 1.3X P/B to get a better chance. Well NOL finally get a hold on it operating expense by exiting the loss making trade lane so might get a better price due to restructured business model. Currently P/B = 0.6X and NAV = S1.41. So u see it heavily undervalued by market capitalisation, that why cannot value ship by stock price, it is just too inaccurate to reflect real value. In good time share price can and will surge to over 2-3X P/B valuation, so no way to value ship according to stock price. That expalin why i mention ship sooner or later would be delisted due to  uncertain profitability business model. For now enjoy the heavy  blood bath in asian stock market, don go in yet more falls expected and if currency devaluation hehe u gona see massive fund outflow.
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famouspinky Supreme	24-Aug-2015 10:57        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thats why hav to get out frm sti KAMAL0883      ( Date: 24-Aug-2015 10:54) Posted: Tot NOL already out from STI quite sometime ago liao right ??? sgng123      ( Date: 23-Aug-2015 18:52) Posted: Don need to worry so much, it part of the economy cycle. We just went back to square 1 when global governments are trying to raise global demand through currency devaluation and this shit had been in play for nearly 40 years lead by America. It is just another cycle turning it course and winner are those that can stand and take paper losses, loser are those over-stretched their limit and had no mean to hold. By the way oil would crash down to 30 before any stabilisation is expected so get ready for at least 2 weeks of wild ride in STI index. After all this drama, growth stocks would take the lead in pushing STI while defensive stock would sideline, it part and parcel of economy cycle. Anyway left or right NOL is up for sale by temasek, just wait for the divestment news and nothing much to trade/short due to uncertainty in market. By 1Q16 NOL should be  no longer in STI and delisted so maybe we should brainstorm which stock gona be the new champion to drive growth after US raise rate, personnelly i like those with exposure to US market and deal primarily in US dollars, ST eng, Venture etc are just some of pick but wait for the market to settle down before buying. STI gona drop to 2800 in next few weeks, hold tight and stay strong.
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KAMAL0883 Supreme	24-Aug-2015 10:54        KAMAL0883 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tot NOL already out from STI quite sometime ago liao right ??? sgng123      ( Date: 23-Aug-2015 18:52) Posted: Don need to worry so much, it part of the economy cycle. We just went back to square 1 when global governments are trying to raise global demand through currency devaluation and this shit had been in play for nearly 40 years lead by America. It is just another cycle turning it course and winner are those that can stand and take paper losses, loser are those over-stretched their limit and had no mean to hold. By the way oil would crash down to 30 before any stabilisation is expected so get ready for at least 2 weeks of wild ride in STI index. After all this drama, growth stocks would take the lead in pushing STI while defensive stock would sideline, it part and parcel of economy cycle. Anyway left or right NOL is up for sale by temasek, just wait for the divestment news and nothing much to trade/short due to uncertainty in market. By 1Q16 NOL should be  no longer in STI and delisted so maybe we should brainstorm which stock gona be the new champion to drive growth after US raise rate, personnelly i like those with exposure to US market and deal primarily in US dollars, ST eng, Venture etc are just some of pick but wait for the market to settle down before buying. STI gona drop to 2800 in next few weeks, hold tight and stay strong.
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sgng123 Supreme	24-Aug-2015 10:46        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	STI break below 2900, losing like 2.5%. Still got like 8% more to drop before hitting next resistance 2800. IF that break it all the way to 2500. Hope it stabilised at 2800 or it gonna get ugly.
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sgng123 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 18:52        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don need to worry so much, it part of the economy cycle. We just went back to square 1 when global governments are trying to raise global demand through currency devaluation and this shit had been in play for nearly 40 years lead by America. It is just another cycle turning it course and winner are those that can stand and take paper losses, loser are those over-stretched their limit and had no mean to hold. By the way oil would crash down to 30 before any stabilisation is expected so get ready for at least 2 weeks of wild ride in STI index. After all this drama, growth stocks would take the lead in pushing STI while defensive stock would sideline, it part and parcel of economy cycle. Anyway left or right NOL is up for sale by temasek, just wait for the divestment news and nothing much to trade/short due to uncertainty in market. By 1Q16 NOL should be  no longer in STI and delisted so maybe we should brainstorm which stock gona be the new champion to drive growth after US raise rate, personnelly i like those with exposure to US market and deal primarily in US dollars, ST eng, Venture etc are just some of pick but wait for the market to settle down before buying. STI gona drop to 2800 in next few weeks, hold tight and stay strong.
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beginners Veteran	23-Aug-2015 15:57        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The ex-3 star general after all is still Amy train.
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makdatok Supreme	23-Aug-2015 14:52        makdatok About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If global economy runs into problem or slowdown as suggested by many,NOL will be d first to take a hit..hiak hiak hiak
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 14:48        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Zhuge Liang had predicted every events in advance: - even Oil Price Fluctuation Prediction against EarlyBird14 in 2014. - Even Oil Price level to when NOL Profitability  (when NOL had been recording its losses for the Past 6 Years). - Fulfilled in 2Q 2015 whereby NOL made 1st Profitability in 6 years. - Sales of APL Logistics Exact Valued (1.2 Billion) - Made Own Reputation Bet (Fulfilled when NOL crosses $1.065) - NOL Prediction stands in Red Sea (2014 to early 2015) - NOL Prediction stands in Dow Point Falls & rises till $1.185 - NOL Prediction stands in Greece Meltdown Zhuge Liang do what others cannot do & the impossible, & even presented Strategies to NOL Management. However, NOL Management heeds lightly of the strategies. Now, the 3rd Factor of NOL Success lies in 人 和 (Human Coordination). Currently, NOL is in Original Shipping Profitable Era. Whether NOL Management uses Zhuge Liang Strategies/ want to follow its own decision, the results will vary but still to substantial benefits of NOL. But, overall NOL is still positioned in a very good position in the stock market.
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 14:31        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Zhuge Liang Current Full View of NOL in respect to NOL Management Decision: The 3rd Factor lies in  人 和 (Human Coordination): If NOL Management chooses the wrong path, then even if Zhuge Liang had prediction power Zhuge Liang also cannot turn the tides as NOL Management did not heed Zhuge Liang advise. As NOL Management did not heed 1st advise (Sell APL Logistics as IPO shares), only 2nd advise left (APL Shipping merger with TOP 4 Shipping Companies) which can only acheive half of Zhuge Liang Strategy (NOL Potential) even if heeded. However if NOL Management follows its own decision, the success or failure will be undetermined. Despite above factor, NOL still have  天 时 (Heaven Time) and 地 利 (Ground Benefits- Low Oil Price) to support NOL: As stated in 3 Dec 2014  [NOL Profitability vs Oil Price Event Predicted b4 it happens- Actualized]- I stated Oil Price once  hit $55 to $65, it  will reverse back to Original Shipping Profitable Era. In 2015 2Q (when oil price hovers around USD55 level) -  NOL recorded 3 Millions Profits gain (The First Profitability Gain since its losses for the Past 6 Years)  Current Oil Price (WTI Crude Oil): USD 40.45/ BBL MetalTrader3      ( Date: 23-Aug-2015 12:59) Posted: When many stocks are in downturn & many feared, Zhuge Liang will personally fight alongside with NOL in the Battle of ChiBi. Having 天 时 (Heaven Time) and 地 利 (Ground Benefits), now left 人 和 (Human Coordination).
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 14:17        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear NOL Management, As you had ignored the 1st advise, currently we can only achieve Half Potential of Success even if 2nd Advise heeded. As stated in 20 Dec 2014: 1) APL Logistics- Excluded as NOL Management sell off by $  As NOL had not heed the 1st advise [APL Logistics (IPO share)], we have not achieve success up to Today Merger and deeper cooperation a bigger capacity company (e.g. Maersk Line) is the 2nd advise. [Now, NOL Management cannot acheive Full Potential of Success (only Half Potential of Success) even if 2nd advise is heeded] 2) APL Shipping I believe NOL Management if proceed to sell off APL Shipping will be only a 1 Time Gain for NOL.  [which will be NOL Own Decision- Success or Failure will be undetermined as reflects NOL Management Own Decision, which does not reflect ZhuGe Liang Advise] MetalTrader3      ( Date: 20-Dec-2014 11:07) Posted: The success or failure of NOL lies in one move & it must be executed perfectly in relation to APL Logistics (IPO share) & then Merger and deeper cooperation a bigger capacity company (e.g. Maersk Line).
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 14:04        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear NOL Management, As NOL Management had ignored 1st advise (APL Logistics), no combined value actualized.  Regarding the Merger/Sell Off of APL Shipping Situation which NOL is facing. (My 2nd Advise is still the best advise for APL Shipping) Stated in 20 Dec 2014 [Zhuge Liang Advise in 2014 for NOL Management]: 1st Advise: APL Logistics [As NOL did not heed the 1st advise, no combined value actualized] - Excluded: Trump Card (APL Logistics if issued as IPO for every NOL- combined value may be around $1.50) - * up to Management decision, which I strongly advise.  Reason: There is no need to sell 100% as the synergy for working with buyers to expand network & business is more important than 1 time profit. By selling 40% of APL Logistics as IPO share, NOL retain ownership and flexibility to continue grow its APL Logistics with buyers.  2nd Advise: APL Shipping ● Sell 20% of APL (Shipping) to a bigger capacity shipping company & Do Merger (e.g. Maersk Line) to manage undercapacity Liner Operation. This will improve liner revenue & having lesser scale of vessels & operating costs to maintain. A merger is essential to be on some fair ground & compete with Top 4 shipping companies.  Reason: G6 Alliance had not served its purpose as each shipping company only concern about their own interest. NOL should seek deeper business cooperation and merger with Maersk Line instead.  These need to be operated simultaneously to turn profitable MetalTrader3      ( Date: 20-Dec-2014 10:52) Posted: Latest NOL Strategy (Complete Ver + Detailed Explaination for NOL Mgmt) Dear NOL Mgmt & All, In shipping, expanding network & business with APL Logistics buyer & Merging with other bigger capacity shipping like Maersk Line is crucial for the success of NOL. My Advise (Superior Strategy)- Latest Version in relation to current global shipping structure: ● Issue APL (Logistics) as IPO share to retain overall control. Sell 40% of APL Logistics shares to buyer, retain 60%. Work with buyers to expand network & business. ○ Trump Card (APL Logistics if issued as IPO for every NOL- combined value may be around $1.50) - * up to Management decision, which I strongly advise. Reason: There is no need to sell 100% as the synergy for working with buyers to expand network & business is more important than 1 time profit. By selling 40% of APL Logistics as IPO share, NOL retain ownership and flexibility to continue grow its APL Logistics with buyers. ● Sell 20% of APL (Shipping) to a bigger capacity shipping company & Do Merger (e.g. Maersk Line) to manage undercapacity Liner Operation. This will improve liner revenue & having lesser scale of vessels & operating costs to maintain. A merger is essential to be on some fair ground & compete with Top 4 shipping companies. Reason: G6 Alliance had not served its purpose as each shipping company only concern about their own interest. NOL should seek deeper business cooperation and merger with Maersk Line instead. These need to be operated simultaneously to turn profitable
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 13:49        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	As stated in 20 Dec 2014 (2015 view), which is happening in 2015: NOL have 3 large potential to play out:  - Shipping Recovery is near (Oil Price is not at ridiculously high level, as compared in past 4 years)  - Continued Restructuring in NOL + Low Oil Price will contribute positively for Year 2015. (In 2Q 2015- NOL recorded 3 Million Profits,  , whereby NOL had not recorded profits for the past 6 years) Current Oil Price (WTI Crude Oil): USD 40.45/ BBL Excluded as NOL Mgmt did not heed Zhuge Liang advise: - The Combined Value of NOL will be higher (* if NOL Mgmt heed my advise & sell 40% APL Logistics as ipo shares. Each NOL holder should receive APL stock. If this happen, combined value should likely be around $1.50)  MetalTrader3      ( Date: 20-Dec-2014 00:22) Posted: NOL have 3 large potential to play out: - Shipping Recovery is near (Oil Price is not at ridiculously high level, as compared in past 4 years) - The Combined Value of NOL will be higher (* if NOL Mgmt heed my advise & sell 40% APL Logistics as ipo shares. Each NOL holder should receive APL stock. If this happen, combined value should likely be around $1.50) - Continued Restructuring in NOL + Low Oil Price will contribute positively for Year 2015.
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 13:41        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Oil Price vs NOL Profitability Predicted in advance, whereby NOL had not recorded profits for the past 6 years As stated in 3 Dec 2014 [NOL Profitability vs Oil Price Event Predicted b4 it happens- Actualized]- I stated Oil Price once hit $55 to $65, it will reverse back to Original Shipping Profitable Era. In 2015 2Q (when oil price hovers around USD55 level) - NOL recorded 3 Millions Profits gain (The First Profitability Gain since its losses for the Past 6 Years) APL Logistics if issued as IPO for every NOL- combined value may be around $1.50) - * up to Management decision As NOL Management did not take ZhuGe Liang Advise, no combined value actualized. MetalTrader3      ( Date: 03-Dec-2014 16:32) Posted: Latest NOL Strategy (Edited Complete Ver) Dear NOL Mgmt & All, These are 2 things I believe in NOL: Though Oil Price will be a major game changer in shipping turnaround. APL (Logistics) need work with buyer in alliance to expand its network & business by selling 40% as IPO (Listed in Strategy #2). APL (Shipping) need sell 20% & do merger with a bigger capacity shipping company. ● Oil Price @ $79 already lower a bit (25% lower) from previous rising oil price. Once hit $55 to $65, it will reverse back to Original Shipping Profitable Era. ● Trump Card (APL Logistics if issued as IPO for every NOL- combined value may be around $1.50) - * up to Management decision My Advise (Superior Strategy #2)- Revised Version in view of oil price drop: - Sell 20% of APL (Shipping) to manage undercapacity Liner Operation. This will improve liner revenue & having lesser scale of vessels & operating costs to maintain. Then, do merger with other bigger capacity shipping (E.g. Evergreen) A merger is essential to be on some fair ground & compete with Top 4 shipping companies. - Issue APL (Logistics) as IPO to retain overall control. Sell 40% of APL Logistics shares to buyer, retain 60%. Work with buyers to expand network & business. These need to be operated simultaneously to turn profitable
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MetalTrader3 Supreme	23-Aug-2015 13:23        MetalTrader3 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	As predicted in 2014,  Shipping stocks had a larger potential than Oil stocks in Year 2015 - to be contributed by lower oil purchase price. [Actualized] NOL had posed to become a more reliable & stable stock due to its ability to purchase cheaper oil. It is in a more fairly stronger position as compared to most stocks. Further oil price drop generate a greater margin profits in 2015 year. [Actualized when 2Q 2015- NOL generates 3 Millions] Shipping Cycle Turnaround is near & potential capability is large.  MetalTrader3      ( Date: 11-Dec-2014 23:43) Posted: A battle will had to be fought & NOL had potential to become a rising leader in SGX market. Shipping stocks had a larger potential than Oil stocks in Year 2015 - to be contributed by lower oil purchase price. (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nvGnZye9Fvs) NOL had posed to become a more reliable & stable stock due to its ability to purchase cheaper oil. It is in a more fairly stronger position as compared to most stocks. Further oil price drop generate a greater margin profits in 2015 year. Shipping Cycle Turnaround is near & potential capability is large. ● Marco Factor (cheaper fuel) plays a large part to NOL stability. - Crude Oil (WTI) had hit USD60.51/ barrel continues to generate momentum for NOL to purchase cheaper fuel for most of its non-leased ships. ● Micro Factor (internal cost saving & potential sales of APL estimated @ USD 1 billion +)
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