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2% YIELD 8.2x PE - STRONG GROWTH IN 2014/15 BETTER Post Reply Rate topic
whlplkps Member	22-Nov-2018 08:42        whlplkps About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, There is indeed indications of increased O& G capex with the oil price recovery, however the majority of the capex is directed at onshore O& G production and less on offshore O& G production (Check out Baker Hughes latest rig count report, the increase in rigs are mainly attributable to onshore rigs). The key reason is that with the oil price volatility, O& G majors will prioritise the low cost production sites (Mostly onshore production sites) rather than high cost production sites (Mostly offshore production sites) Unfortunately Kimheng services the offshore sector, the recovery of offshore sector O& G activities would be take much longer than next year   WL123456      ( Date: 21-Nov-2018 16:20) Posted: From Q118 till Q318 , the decrease in cash and equivalent is from $6.128mil to $5.432mil. That?s a decrease of about $0.7 mil over 6 months . How did u get -1.5 mil every month ? In my opinion , it will survive this year and next year . Anyway oil prices have rebounded and they should get more activities with their vessels . They are also buying distressed valued vessels to flip for a profit and I think next year would be a good year to dispose off these assets as O and G activities picking up this year will lead to more deliveries next year (lag effect) as productions matures, hence the need for their vessels and services .
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whlplkps Member	22-Nov-2018 08:34        whlplkps About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, The estimated cash burn rate of S$ per month is as follows: Take sum operating expenses of the company for the 9 months ended 30 Sep 2018 - Distribution expenses: S$0.722 million - Administrative expenses: S$9.075 million - Other operating expenses: S$ 2.962 million Total operating expenses for 9 months ended 30 Sep 2018= S$12.759 million (Do note that depreciation expense is not included in the operating expense calculation) 1) Divide this figure by 9 months = ~S$1.4-1.5 million expense per month (Note: FY2017 operating expenses per month figure of S$1.77 million)  2) Estimated interest expense per month= S$0.1 million per month (See previous post on calculation) 3) ST borrowing of S$14.3 million repayable within 1 year = ~S$1.2 million repayment per month (Assume repayment spread equally over 12 months) Total estimated cash outflow per month= (1) + (2) + (3)= ~S$2.8 million per month Cash runway from 30 sep 2018 = S$5.4 million / S$2.8 million=  1.9 months left  (From 30 Sep 2018) before becoming insolvent Regarding your point on Q3 Cashflow statement, the S$0.7 million cash generated from operations is already reflected in the Cash balance of S$5.4 million (as at 30 Sep 2018). So this has already been accounted for in the above calculation.   The Angel Sun tanker you are referring to was acquired on 2 Oct 2018 (See announcement on 2 Oct 2018). Company acquired Angel Sun tanker for S$2.1 million In the same announcement, the company estimates that this Angel Sun tanker is worth S$4.77 million (Based on valuers estimate). Understood that the company mentioned that it managed to sell Angel Sun in 4Q 2018 at a profit, (Not disclosed how much profit). Lets assume (on a optimistic basis) that company managed to sell Angel Sun @ S$4.77 million, i.e. S$2.67 million profit, that would only buy the company an additional ~1 month of leeway? (Based on S$2.8 million cash burn rate per month)
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Huataarrhh Senior	21-Nov-2018 17:12        Huataarrhh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cash burn of $1.5million per month???  How did you get that figure? It recorded positive operating cashflow of $723k in  Jun-Sep quarter. They will also receive money from the sale of the oil product tanker in Oct-Dec quarter. whlplkps      ( Date: 21-Nov-2018 11:27) Posted: Based on my calculations, I expect the company to run out of cash by the end of the year (As at 30 Sep 2018) 1) Cash amount: S$5.4 million 2) Cash burn: ~S$1.5 million per month    3) Estimated interest repayment= Total debt S$38.16million * 3% interest / 12 months = ~S$0.1 million per month 4) ST borrowing of S$14.3 million repayable within 1 year = ~S$1.2 million repayment per month Total estimated cash outflow per month= (2) + (3) + (4)= ~S$2.8 million per month Cash runway from 30 sep 2018 = S$5.4 million / S$2.8 million= 1.9 months left  (From 30 Sep 2018) before becoming insolvent Can the company raise capital from rights issue? Probably. But I dont think this can be completed in time before the time runs out. Can the company refinance its debt? Maybe, but i think banks may be unwilling to do so because of the following reasons: Total debt amount = S$38.16 million Total possible collateralised PPE= S$96.6 million - ~S$40 million is allocated to leashold property (Possible to collateralise against land) - Remaining S$46.6 million is from equipment, machinery and vessels (I dont think banks will accept the equipment, machinery and vessels as collateral as these are probably very illiquid, if yes the ltv will be below 20-30%) Optimistic assumptions:  Assume LTV of 70% for S$40 million (leasehold property) and LTV of 30% for S$46.6 million (equipment, machinery & vessels) possible refinance amount = S$41.98 million.  This is close to its existing debt amount, so at best they can roll over their debt. But the cash burn of S$1.5 million per month will continue unless company restructures further to reduce operating costs. Also if you look at their balance sheet under ST assets, they have ~S$11 million assets held for sale since 31 Dec 2017 until 30 Sep 2018, this value has not been converted to cash probably because the company is unable to find buyers for these assets (1 crane and some vessels) Take a walk along West Coast Park waterfront area, you will be able to see the 2 floating platforms owned by company being idle and quite a number of vessels at the company waterfront yard just there without much repair activity. No/little work means little revenue to sustain the company.
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WL123456 Supreme	21-Nov-2018 16:20        WL123456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	From Q118 till Q318 , the decrease in cash and equivalent is from $6.128mil to $5.432mil. That?s a decrease of about $0.7 mil over 6 months . How did u get -1.5 mil every month ? In my opinion , it will survive this year and next year . Anyway oil prices have rebounded and they should get more activities with their vessels . They are also buying distressed valued vessels to flip for a profit and I think next year would be a good year to dispose off these assets as O and G activities picking up this year will lead to more deliveries next year (lag effect) as productions matures, hence the need for their vessels and services .
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whlplkps Member	21-Nov-2018 11:27        whlplkps About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Based on my calculations, I expect the company to run out of cash by the end of the year (As at 30 Sep 2018) 1) Cash amount: S$5.4 million 2) Cash burn: ~S$1.5 million per month    3) Estimated interest repayment= Total debt S$38.16million * 3% interest / 12 months = ~S$0.1 million per month 4) ST borrowing of S$14.3 million repayable within 1 year = ~S$1.2 million repayment per month Total estimated cash outflow per month= (2) + (3) + (4)= ~S$2.8 million per month Cash runway from 30 sep 2018 = S$5.4 million / S$2.8 million= 1.9 months left  (From 30 Sep 2018) before becoming insolvent Can the company raise capital from rights issue? Probably. But I dont think this can be completed in time before the time runs out. Can the company refinance its debt? Maybe, but i think banks may be unwilling to do so because of the following reasons: Total debt amount = S$38.16 million Total possible collateralised PPE= S$96.6 million - ~S$40 million is allocated to leashold property (Possible to collateralise against land) - Remaining S$46.6 million is from equipment, machinery and vessels (I dont think banks will accept the equipment, machinery and vessels as collateral as these are probably very illiquid, if yes the ltv will be below 20-30%) Optimistic assumptions:  Assume LTV of 70% for S$40 million (leasehold property) and LTV of 30% for S$46.6 million (equipment, machinery & vessels) possible refinance amount = S$41.98 million.  This is close to its existing debt amount, so at best they can roll over their debt. But the cash burn of S$1.5 million per month will continue unless company restructures further to reduce operating costs. Also if you look at their balance sheet under ST assets, they have ~S$11 million assets held for sale since 31 Dec 2017 until 30 Sep 2018, this value has not been converted to cash probably because the company is unable to find buyers for these assets (1 crane and some vessels) Take a walk along West Coast Park waterfront area, you will be able to see the 2 floating platforms owned by company being idle and quite a number of vessels at the company waterfront yard just there without much repair activity. No/little work means little revenue to sustain the company.
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alexchew Master	21-Nov-2018 10:51        alexchew About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	wont la.. just rights issue. whlplkps      ( Date: 21-Nov-2018 10:50) Posted: Cash as at 30 Sep 2018: S$5.4million  Cash burn: ~S$1.5 million per month  ST Borrowing: S$14.3 mill  LT Borrowing: S$23.86 Soon to be insolvent?
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whlplkps Member	21-Nov-2018 10:50        whlplkps About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cash as at 30 Sep 2018: S$5.4million  Cash burn: ~S$1.5 million per month  ST Borrowing: S$14.3 mill  LT Borrowing: S$23.86 Soon to be insolvent?
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johnng Supreme	20-Sep-2018 09:48        johnng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	still at bottom 75? when can chiong up??
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granto Master	23-Jul-2018 20:31        granto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Kim Heng acquires two vessels, flips one of them https://splash247.com/kim-heng-acquires-two-vessels-flips-one-of-them/
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b2nb2n Senior	16-May-2018 13:32        b2nb2n About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Did someone " accidentally" sold 500000 at 0.093, and now queuing at 0.092??
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SgYuan Supreme	10-May-2018 14:45        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	The previous EW wave c drop to 89. EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4? 90 w5? 98 wa? 91 wb? 96 wc? 89 Delta     5   2   9   4   8   7   5   7 %         30   170   44.4   160   87.5   71.4   100   New uptrend EW EW 89 w1 96 w2? 92 w3? 103 w4? 99 w5? 106 wa? 102 wb? 104 wc? 100 Delta     7   4   11   4   7   4   2   4 %         61.8   161.8   38.2   100   61.8   61.8   100 b2nb2n      ( Date: 10-May-2018 11:22) Posted: Any EW starting? Or can one count from 82 on 4 Apr?   SgYuan      ( Date: 20-Apr-2018 14:16) Posted: Previous EW ended EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4? 91 w5? 98 wa 91 wb 96 wc 92 Delta     5   2   9   3   7   7   5   4 %         30   170   38.2   130   100   70   60 Gain 16 Retrace 6 Total Gain 62.5% New uptrend still brewing. w1 not end yet. EW 92 w1? 96 w2? 94 w3? 100 w4? 98 w5? 102 wa? 100 wb? 101 wc? 99 Delta     4   2   6   2   4   2   1   2 %         61.8   161.8   38.2   100   61.8   61.8   100
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b2nb2n Senior	10-May-2018 11:22        b2nb2n About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Any EW starting? Or can one count from 82 on 4 Apr?   SgYuan      ( Date: 20-Apr-2018 14:16) Posted: Previous EW ended EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4? 91 w5? 98 wa 91 wb 96 wc 92 Delta     5   2   9   3   7   7   5   4 %         30   170   38.2   130   100   70   60 Gain 16 Retrace 6 Total Gain 62.5% New uptrend still brewing. w1 not end yet. EW 92 w1? 96 w2? 94 w3? 100 w4? 98 w5? 102 wa? 100 wb? 101 wc? 99 Delta     4   2   6   2   4   2   1   2 %         61.8   161.8   38.2   100   61.8   61.8   100
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rlong8288 Master	07-May-2018 08:29        rlong8288 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	with so many vessels anchor at their yard in west coast, outlook is still not clear serious      ( Date: 06-May-2018 00:04) Posted: Every year lost more than 15m , how to sustain ? SgYuan      ( Date: 14-Mar-2018 09:28) Posted: Now on w
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serious Master	06-May-2018 00:04        serious About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Every year lost more than 15m , how to sustain ? SgYuan      ( Date: 14-Mar-2018 09:28) Posted: Now on w4 SgYuan      ( Date: 13-Mar-2018 14:26) Posted: w3 tgt 99 (hit 100
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SgYuan Supreme	20-Apr-2018 14:16        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Previous EW ended EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4? 91 w5? 98 wa 91 wb 96 wc 92 Delta     5   2   9   3   7   7   5   4 %         30   170   38.2   130   100   70   60 Gain 16 Retrace 6 Total Gain 62.5% New uptrend still brewing. w1 not end yet. EW 92 w1? 96 w2? 94 w3? 100 w4? 98 w5? 102 wa? 100 wb? 101 wc? 99 Delta     4   2   6   2   4   2   1   2 %         61.8   161.8   38.2   100   61.8   61.8   100
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WL123456 Supreme	20-Apr-2018 13:21        WL123456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Should rally soon , joining the O and G tide.
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RAIN91 Member	20-Apr-2018 12:24        RAIN91 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Any update? SgYuan      ( Date: 17-Apr-2018 14:30) Posted: EW  83 w1  92 w2  85 w3? w4? w5? wabc correction near 96 w1 9 w2 7 w3 14, tgt 99 (hit 100) w4 5, tgt 94 (hit 96) w5 9, tgt 103 (hit 102) wa 102 to 94 detla 8 wb 94 to 99 delta 5 wc 99 to 82 delta 17 dn 212% of wa Didn' t expect the corrective wave is so aggressive. Mini EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4 90 w5 98 wabc? near 90 - now at wabc px touch  91   RAIN91      ( Date: 17-Apr-2018 10:16) Posted: Any update?
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SgYuan Supreme	17-Apr-2018 14:30        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	EW  83 w1  92 w2  85 w3? w4? w5? wabc correction near 96 w1 9 w2 7 w3 14, tgt 99 (hit 100) w4 5, tgt 94 (hit 96) w5 9, tgt 103 (hit 102) wa 102 to 94 detla 8 wb 94 to 99 delta 5 wc 99 to 82 delta 17 dn 212% of wa Didn' t expect the corrective wave is so aggressive. Mini EW 82 w1 87 w2 85 w3 94 w4 90 w5 98 wabc? near 90 - now at wabc px touch  91   RAIN91      ( Date: 17-Apr-2018 10:16) Posted: Any update? SgYuan      ( Date: 22-Mar-2018 15:38) Posted: EW  83 w1  92 w2  85 w3? w4? w5? wabc correction near 96 w1 9 w2 7 w3 14, tgt 99 (hit 100) w4 5, tgt 94 (hit 96) w5 9, tgt 103 (hit 102) Wait for next wave, w3 ext EW Mid Term EW EW 83 w1 ext EW  102 w2? w3 ext EW? w4? w5 ext EW? w1 19 w2 11, tgt 91 - now hit 94 w3 30, tgt 121 w4 11, tgt 110 w5 19, tgt 129
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RAIN91 Member	17-Apr-2018 10:16        RAIN91 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Any update? SgYuan      ( Date: 22-Mar-2018 15:38) Posted: EW  83 w1  92 w2  85 w3? w4? w5? wabc correction near 96 w1 9 w2 7 w3 14, tgt 99 (hit 100) w4 5, tgt 94 (hit 96) w5 9, tgt 103 (hit 102) Wait for next wave, w3 ext EW Mid Term EW EW 83 w1 ext EW  102 w2? w3 ext EW? w4? w5 ext EW? w1 19 w2 11, tgt 91 - now hit 94 w3 30, tgt 121 w4 11, tgt 110 w5 19, tgt 129 SgYuan      ( Date: 09-Mar-2018 10:12) Posted: Long term EW 65 w1 130 w2  83 w3? w1 65 w2 47, drop 72% w3 105, up tgt 188 Short Term EW  83 w1  92 w2  85 w3? w4? w5? w1 9 w2 7 w3 14, tgt 99 - now at these wave w4 5, tgt 94 w5 9, tgt 10
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RAIN91 Member	16-Apr-2018 19:02        RAIN91 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Will the news today help to chiong?
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