Last Updated : 29 October 2012 at 16:10 IST

 

Gold suffers least among precious metals, physical buying crucial: Barclays

 

Source :Commodity Online/Barclays

LONDON (Commodity Online):  Gold dipped below $1700 per ounce briefly having surrendered bulk of the gains made ahead of the QE3 announcement but has suffered the least among precious metals, according to Barclays Research.

The crucial support for gold has to emerge from the physical market with technical support in the $1660 area, Barclays added. “The key question is whether the downside support for gold will continue to materialise from the physical market.”

Price forecast: Q4 12: $1810/oz, 2012 annual average: $1691/oz

“We are bullish for gold and expect the confluence of technical supports in the 1660 area (100- & 200-day averages, along with the daily cloud base) to provide buying interest. The trend for increasing ETF gold holdings points to investor appetite for the yellow metal and helps underpin the greater uptrend. We are looking for an initial move toward the October range highs near 1800. A move above there would confirm our greater view for a re-test of the record highs near 1921 into the New Year. “

-  Resistance: 1733, 1754
- Support: 1698, 1660

The macro environment, investor flows continue to be bullish for gold, but fundamentals remain mixed. Gold buying has picked up India festive season on lower prices prevailing compared to August while in China, trade volumes and prices have picked up in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).



Demand for Gold ETFs remain sticky although there are some positive inflows while speculative interest in futures seem to be falling with latest weekly CFTC data showing a decline of 12 k lots, following a drop of 18k lot sin the previous week.   

Last Updated : 25 October 2012 at 15:30 IST

 

If China willing, Gold to break all time high: Saxo Bank

 

Source :Saxo Bank

BEIJING (Commodity Online):  Gold prices may reach all time high of $2,075 an ounce in December this year as mainland China's gold buying from Australia rose sharply, said Saxo bank in a commodity snippet. Our recommendation is to buy gold now before the gold price escalates further higher, the bank added.

According to the Danish investment bank,  yellow metal has jumped past coal as Australia's second most beneficial physical export to China, with revenue up a whopping 900% for your first eight months of this year, bringing in $4.1 billion.

Chinese purchasers  are hoarding the valuable metal amid a slowing economic climate, property-buying restrictions and uncertain monetary markets as its central financial institution raises its holdings.

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unparalleled jump in gold revenue,  together with ongoing acceleration of export revenues for other commodities led by coal -- up 80% to $4 billion -- caused total exports to China to increase by 10.7% for the 12 months to August.

Shipments of Australia's greatest export, iron ore, had been up 20% for exactly the same time period however the total worth of $26.9 billion was down 5% in comparison to last year, because of the mid-year price slump.

The bank continued that, “China's foreign currency reserves of gold are reduced and its move to construct them up will provide an essential base demand for gold.Gold has possible to break all time high of $1,921 an ounce throughout December this year.”

“Overall we carry on to determine further upside possible for gold and also to a lesser degree silver as decreased demand from industrial customers raises the stress on monetary traders to help maintain the supply surplus down,” they added.

The  central banks of Brazil and Ukraine were the only notable official sector buyers of gold a few weeks ago, as sales of the precious metal started to outpace purchases following several quarters of sustained demand from emerging market central banks eager to diversify their reserves.

“Using the open ended dynamics of quantitative easing, QE3,  we see the possible for gold reaching the 2011 high at $1,921/oz throughout December following an preliminary time period of consolidating as $1,800 offers powerful resistance,” analysts with Saxo bank noted.

Into 2013 the rally might ultimately consider us up and over the physiological barrier of $2,000 prior to reaching a technical goal of $2,075, the financial institution mentioned. The definite line in the sand beneath is now $1,500, but we anticipate technical support in the 200-day moving average, presently at $1,659, will postpone any downside attempts, Saxo Bank concluded.

 

 

 

 

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Trades Higher after 1700 Test

Daily Bars

Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Commodity Observations: “Gold is nearing potentially strong support from the 38.2 retracement of the rally from 1522.50 at 1691.40 and 9/7 low at 1689.05. The decline from the top would consist of 2 equal legs at 1685.63 (also the 9/3 low).”

Commodity Trading Strategy Implications: 1685-1691 is a level to consider longs

LEVELS: 1646 1677 1685/91 1714 1730 1753

Last Updated : 24 October 2012 at 22:15 IST

 

Modest pressure on Gold prices likely to remain near term: HSBC

 

Source :Commodity Online

 

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold prices could remain under pressure in the near term as the yellow metal fell under technical-chart support at $1,720 an ounce and was dragged down Tuesday by the weakness in risk assets, said (HSBC) in a commodity snippet.

Weakness in the euro, price declines in the industrial commodities and the platinum group metals because of lower-than-expected corporate earnings were all weighing on gold. If gold breaks $1,700, the next support level is $1,660, which is where gold held prior to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, said James Steel, analyst with HSBC.

“We continue to see modest pressure on gold prices in the near term, barring any surprise announcements by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) for additional monetary easing policies. However, emerging-market demand for bullion has picked up, given the recent gold price decline, and this may act as a backstop against steeper price drops, in our view,” Steel concluded.

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold 1685/91 is Probable Support if Reached

Daily Bars

Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Commodity Observations: Gold is nearing potentially strong support from the 38.2 retracement of the rally from 1522.50 at 1691.40 and 9/7 low at 1689.05. The decline from the top would consist of 2 equal legs at 1685.63 (also the 9/3 low).

Commodity Trading Strategy Implications: 1685-1691 is a level to consider longs

LEVELS: 1646 1677 1685/91 1714 1730 1753