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stockgurus Member	19-Jul-2019 04:58        stockgurus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am vested in this and have did a financial model exercise for Projected Q1FY19/20.The model took into account April/May/June FY19/20 operating results, the weightage of revenue/cost composition, cost of jet fuel, hedging estimations from other analyst reports and other important variables.  Do leave your inputs on your views or ways to improve this model further. For the full version of the financial model, do email to [email protected] and i will email you for your own exercise/due deligence. Sources:  1. Jet fuel price:  https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?co...  2. April FY19/20 operating results:  https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/opstats-apr...  3. May operating results:  https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/opstats-may...  4. June operating results:  https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/opstats-jun...  5. Composition of Revenue/Cost & Hedging estimations:  https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/slides-q4fy... Assumptions:  1. Staff cost ,admin expenses remains close to FY18/19 Q1 quarter (Based on past years' trend) Factors that the model did not take into account:  1. Possible one-off gain -> Eg Possibility of its engineering arm privatization..  2. Cost savings from SIA transformation efforts  Financial Disclaimer:  The author is vested in SIA.This is a financial modelling exercise, does not carry any legal credibility and the author may at times include statements, opinions or views of third parties. The author may occasionally make reference to certain provider, product or service by its name, it does not constitute an endorsement. The author denies any and all liability or responsibility for any errors, inaccuracies, omissions, misleading or defamatory content. As a visitor to, member, you should not rely on any of this content without first seeking financial advice from a professionally qualified expert. sgng123      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 01:33) Posted: Sg gov like to build in advance, they predicted there gona be increased air traffic in next 20 years, But they never predicted donald trump would win us president and set abt to rewrite existing international trade and the great us china decoupling had started. SG 2Q GDP almost grounded to zero, now those mil dollar gov minister must be panic and start their plan b. By the way singapore may enter technical recession this year as trade war continue... till next year when trump get replaced but trade relationship damaged.
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Jul-2019 15:52        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SIA eng intrinsic value go to SIA since it is public listed, ST eng had to pay fair value. It the reverse SIA would shhot up 30% once it get rid of baggage. SIA eng employ 5000 people, if got sold off SIA would make lot of saving through reduction on staff cost. Not to mention the fat proceed from 78% holding if got sold off estimate at market range 2.8 to 3.1, it gona be 2.6b to 2.9b proceed, cutting off finande expense it still can get a cool 2b proceed. But again this is possible only if it get sold off, privatisation look far as sia eng cannot be streamlined to airline operation since it belong to different business. SPH just tank 10% on weak result, danger to buy anythinh. famouspinky      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 14:50) Posted: If intrinsic value gone to ST, SIA will drop at least 30% which is not likely sgng123      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 14:21) Posted: Best senario is SIA eng sold off to ST Eng and merged with ST aerspace to create a bigger MRO sg company. This way SIA eng can maintain it independent and still had it sia cake of business. SIA can unlock value and either do special dividend or prepared for temasek privatisation or sale as it intrinsic value is released. Everyone win.
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famouspinky Supreme	16-Jul-2019 15:20        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks like not enough time for election. sgng123      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 01:33) Posted: Sg gov like to build in advance, they predicted there gona be increased air traffic in next 20 years, But they never predicted donald trump would win us president and set abt to rewrite existing international trade and the great us china decoupling had started. SG 2Q GDP almost grounded to zero, now those mil dollar gov minister must be panic and start their plan b. By the way singapore may enter technical recession this year as trade war continue... till next year when trump get replaced but trade relationship damaged.
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famouspinky Supreme	16-Jul-2019 14:50        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If intrinsic value gone to ST, SIA will drop at least 30% which is not likely sgng123      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 14:21) Posted: Best senario is SIA eng sold off to ST Eng and merged with ST aerspace to create a bigger MRO sg company. This way SIA eng can maintain it independent and still had it sia cake of business. SIA can unlock value and either do special dividend or prepared for temasek privatisation or sale as it intrinsic value is released. Everyone win.
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Jul-2019 14:21        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Best senario is SIA eng sold off to ST Eng and merged with ST aerspace to create a bigger MRO sg company. This way SIA eng can maintain it independent and still had it sia cake of business. SIA can unlock value and either do special dividend or prepared for temasek privatisation or sale as it intrinsic value is released. Everyone win.
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Jul-2019 14:09        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That why they switching to plan b, optimal plan is life continue as it is with us china trade remain. Now changes happening in global trade, selling off sia to save changi. By the way sia eng resumed it upward movement, see if trend persist. Market is very zui on M& A due to leakage by buyer side as normally the sellers would keep mum. The buyer snapping up to make aquisiton cheaper. Hopefully this time round SIA eng would finally be sold off or privatised, drama dragging for almost 2 years.
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	16-Jul-2019 09:45        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Er...by the way, " they" also " predicted" trump win. Actually, they are preparing for " multiple options" ... But..sad facts is that the little island has limited alternatives & highly dependent on " external" factors. Now which side to side, if the side side force u to side.?? We need to has " Intel Talents" , " Apple/Google Talents" &   sgng123      ( Date: 16-Jul-2019 01:33) Posted: Sg gov like to build in advance, they predicted there gona be increased air traffic in next 20 years, But they never predicted donald trump would win us president and set abt to rewrite existing international trade and the great us china decoupling had started. SG 2Q GDP almost grounded to zero, now those mil dollar gov minister must be panic and start their plan b. By the way singapore may enter technical recession this year as trade war continue... till next year when trump get replaced but trade relationship damaged.
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Jul-2019 01:36        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Where got use, they selling seat at lower margin. Increased revenue but lower profit margin, in the end net profit high chance remain same. Better to just divest and release value for all investors. Let the ang mih go handle the pilot union whihe gov keep hand clean. stockgurus      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 17:37) Posted: In June 2019, SIA Group airlines' passenger carriage increased by 8.5% compared to last year, ahead of capacity growth of 6.5%. Huat ah! Majority of revenue comes from airline biz! sgng123      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 17:08) Posted: SIA share price trading in same trend as NOL, lackless performance for the years during which reforms sre being made regardless of result. When it completed it restructured or transformation, the sale would come, very typical of temasek style. The low stock valuation is designed to rule out any short term trader, basically they screening out weak holders before transformation completed. SIA is abt 80% done on transformation plan, the next step is value unlock for sia eng. That explain why sia eng speculation came around, it is almost time. SIA eng would drop back to 2.50 if SIA don privatise or sell it instead redistribute sia eng stock to sia investors, so take care. I expect drama on this lol
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sgng123 Supreme	16-Jul-2019 01:33        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sg gov like to build in advance, they predicted there gona be increased air traffic in next 20 years, But they never predicted donald trump would win us president and set abt to rewrite existing international trade and the great us china decoupling had started. SG 2Q GDP almost grounded to zero, now those mil dollar gov minister must be panic and start their plan b. By the way singapore may enter technical recession this year as trade war continue... till next year when trump get replaced but trade relationship damaged.
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investshare Supreme	15-Jul-2019 20:57        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But isn?t traffic already much that?s why need to build new terminal? sgng123      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 16:58) Posted: Changi airport traffic, T5 coming online in 1 to 2 year time and it had the combined capacity of T1,T2,T3 and T4. Need a lot of traffic to fully ultilised it. It not like international airlines would support changi as their own countries also building new airports and need traffic. To drastically increase air traffic, SIA had to be offer up to altar to be sacrifice for singapore future growth. But chill , long term investor redt assured, temasek would make sure all get rewarded for long term support. First thing first, non core business SIA eng had to be unlock for value before any SIA divestment czn occur, same situation as APL logistic to NOL. investshare      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 06:53) Posted: Boost who?s traffic
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stockgurus Member	15-Jul-2019 17:37        stockgurus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In June 2019, SIA Group airlines' passenger carriage increased by 8.5% compared to last year, ahead of capacity growth of 6.5%. Huat ah! Majority of revenue comes from airline biz! sgng123      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 17:08) Posted: SIA share price trading in same trend as NOL, lackless performance for the years during which reforms sre being made regardless of result. When it completed it restructured or transformation, the sale would come, very typical of temasek style. The low stock valuation is designed to rule out any short term trader, basically they screening out weak holders before transformation completed. SIA is abt 80% done on transformation plan, the next step is value unlock for sia eng. That explain why sia eng speculation came around, it is almost time. SIA eng would drop back to 2.50 if SIA don privatise or sell it instead redistribute sia eng stock to sia investors, so take care. I expect drama on this lol
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sgng123 Supreme	15-Jul-2019 17:08        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SIA share price trading in same trend as NOL, lackless performance for the years during which reforms sre being made regardless of result. When it completed it restructured or transformation, the sale would come, very typical of temasek style. The low stock valuation is designed to rule out any short term trader, basically they screening out weak holders before transformation completed. SIA is abt 80% done on transformation plan, the next step is value unlock for sia eng. That explain why sia eng speculation came around, it is almost time. SIA eng would drop back to 2.50 if SIA don privatise or sell it instead redistribute sia eng stock to sia investors, so take care. I expect drama on this lol
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sgng123 Supreme	15-Jul-2019 16:58        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Changi airport traffic, T5 coming online in 1 to 2 year time and it had the combined capacity of T1,T2,T3 and T4. Need a lot of traffic to fully ultilised it. It not like international airlines would support changi as their own countries also building new airports and need traffic. To drastically increase air traffic, SIA had to be offer up to altar to be sacrifice for singapore future growth. But chill , long term investor redt assured, temasek would make sure all get rewarded for long term support. First thing first, non core business SIA eng had to be unlock for value before any SIA divestment czn occur, same situation as APL logistic to NOL. investshare      ( Date: 15-Jul-2019 06:53) Posted: Boost who?s traffic? sgng123      ( Date: 13-Jul-2019 03:29) Posted: Temasek got no choice, pressure from both investors and government to boost traffic and improve margin. The sensible thing to do is follow NOL example, strip off all non core asset and clean up balance book to be sold off for a good price. Temasek is very good at packaging and doing all the dirty work for potential buyer lol. The extent temasek go toward packaging NOL tell u how good they are. No worry too much, SIA balance book still very strong even through it clean up quite a lot changing to internatikn accounting standard.
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SgYuan Supreme	15-Jul-2019 09:26        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	w5 29 tgt 948 up 50% of 58 - px hit 956 delta 37 up 63.8% amd uturn wa 956 940 delta 16 wb 940 ?954 delta 12 wc 954 ?938 delta 16 - still far fr w4 919 see how it goes SgYuan      ( Date: 03-Jul-2019 22:19) Posted: that why ot look strange w0 901 w1 919 w2 905 w3 943 w4 919 w5? w1 18 w3 38 up 211% w4 25 dn 66% which is very deep w5 29 tgt 948 up 50% of 58 - px hit 947 - i choose 50% because of w4 over correction Forestwood      ( Date: 03-Jul-2019 16:34) Posted: Uptrend? what ew says
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investshare Supreme	15-Jul-2019 06:53        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Boost who?s traffic? sgng123      ( Date: 13-Jul-2019 03:29) Posted: Temasek got no choice, pressure from both investors and government to boost traffic and improve margin. The sensible thing to do is follow NOL example, strip off all non core asset and clean up balance book to be sold off for a good price. Temasek is very good at packaging and doing all the dirty work for potential buyer lol. The extent temasek go toward packaging NOL tell u how good they are. No worry too much, SIA balance book still very strong even through it clean up quite a lot changing to internatikn accounting standard.
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famouspinky Supreme	14-Jul-2019 23:34        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Go look through smrt thread if u can, we talked about it and via sng123 analysis, it was delisted again. The conclusion was , no need to answer to stakeholders and can have more problems and no one will ask how much money gone into military expenses aka smrt which has no stakeholders responsibilities. The amount of money pouring into non accountable expenses is frightening...and not for the citizens like medical or education. yes, primary to JC is free. But how about tertiary? Tax? I will rather have 30% direct taxes than so. Many indirest taxes. runaway      ( Date: 14-Jul-2019 21:52) Posted: NOL was bleeding for years, so it was sold. SMRTs frequent breakdown was the talk of the town and a political risk, so it was delisted. SIA is still a great way to fly, especially in light of the loss-making MAS.
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famouspinky Supreme	14-Jul-2019 23:22        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Temasek had itself launched a S$2.8 billion general offer for 70 per cent of NOL shares at S$2.80 apiece in 2004, back when the container shipping business was booming with robust volumes and higher sea-freight rates. The exercise raised its stake from 30 per cent to 68.6 per cent. Fast forward over a decade and the past four straight years of losses for NOL, and Credit Suisse analyst Timothy Ross says Temasek must feel relieved now to "cut loose the albatross" with the successful conclusion of talks with CMA CGM. It's all due to bad management. Same with SIa, Singapore Airlines on Tuesday reported an 81 per cent plunge in second-quarter earnings, hurt by higher fuel prices, lower airfares and non-cash losses at its part-owned Virgin Australia Holdings. Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-airlines-profit-sinks-on-fuel-costs-virgin-australia-10926492. It's only because of low fuel cost now. Belief it has to be gotten rid before fuel costs go up again. runaway      ( Date: 14-Jul-2019 21:52) Posted: NOL was bleeding for years, so it was sold. SMRTs frequent breakdown was the talk of the town and a political risk, so it was delisted. SIA is still a great way to fly, especially in light of the loss-making MAS.
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runaway Senior	14-Jul-2019 21:52        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL was bleeding for years, so it was sold. SMRTs frequent breakdown was the talk of the town and a political risk, so it was delisted. SIA is still a great way to fly, especially in light of the loss-making MAS.
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sgng123 Supreme	13-Jul-2019 03:29        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Temasek got no choice, pressure from both investors and government to boost traffic and improve margin. The sensible thing to do is follow NOL example, strip off all non core asset and clean up balance book to be sold off for a good price. Temasek is very good at packaging and doing all the dirty work for potential buyer lol. The extent temasek go toward packaging NOL tell u how good they are. No worry too much, SIA balance book still very strong even through it clean up quite a lot changing to internatikn accounting standard.
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investshare Supreme	12-Jul-2019 19:13        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Recession coming, companies cut down traveling, consumers turn to budget airline.
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