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Capitaland
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invest8
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04-Sep-2021 20:53
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..![]()
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josemmm123
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04-Sep-2021 18:33
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Just now someone mentioned time factor, dun know why he  deleted his post. Yes, another reason for developer counters trading below NTA is the time required to complete a project. The revenue/profit will be lumpy as the time to complete a project is very long for developers. While for Reits/Reits Manager, the revenue/profits come in monthly rental form, so the profit is recurring. Thats why Reits/Reits manager trade above NTA especially for reputable ones. CLI (CLIM) supported by Temasek will be Asia largest REIMs (maybe ESR REIMs may challenge in the future). So as Asia largest REIM, highly likely it will trade above NTA by a respectable amount.  It will be interesting to see how CLI will perform on 20 September. I got a feeling (my own guess) $3 on first day of trading. DYODD.  Cheers
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tguanhoc
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04-Sep-2021 17:26
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Dear Josemmm123, The proper way to deal with non-CLI shareholders with deliberate intentions to spread malicious rumours and lies about CLI is to refer the individuals to the CLI management and our regulatory authority and recommend a criminal investigation into the matter.   This SPIKE18 really deserve a double oscar award for best actor and liar: It is confirmed that he DID NOT buy or sell capitaland, he has been bashing/attacking/lying about Capitaland. Now he trying to show " sympathy" and feel sorry for those who lost money becos of capitaland. AGAIN he is bashing/attacking/posting negative thigns about capitaland for causing many ppl to lose their money. Next he is saying valuation of capitaland is too high, in other words 2 combos : Capitaland causes ppl to lose money and Valuation is too high.    So now a newbie comes to this forum reading his posting will think: " wow this capitaland so lousy one.. better dun buy if not i also lose money" . We all shd come and clap and give him a standing ovation for best actor and liar award.    Anyway bye bye, u wun be missed. |
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josemmm123
Master |
04-Sep-2021 17:11
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To any newbie reading: Why Capitaland valuation higher due this coporate action?  Explanation: Developers, those building condos, industrial building etc , their share price are usually trading less than their NTA (Net Tangible Assets). The reason is when u build properties, u may lose money. The earnings are lumpy and uncertain. My costs of building a properties can be $100million but I may only be able to sell it for $50million resulting in a loss. And my earnings are uncertain becos it depends on the sales, whether ppl are buying my newly built properties. So there is a inherent risk. That' s why investors tend to value Developer counters at less than NTA. Almost ALL properties/develop counters are trading below NTAs. Reits on the other hand, the income are more stable because they simply collect rental. Even during covid period, most reits are making profit, maybe lesser, but still making profit. Losses come from valuation which usually is one-off. So investors tend to like Reits for their constant profit and thus more predictable and constant dividends, especially for retirement. So most reits trade at more than it' s NTAs, especially those with strong backers like Temasek linked Reits Mapletree/keppel/capitaland reits. So to simplify, Capitaland has 2 components, Developer and Reits manager. Now Capitaland is taking it' s developer private, so the developer' s profit or loss will have nothing to do with investors after 20 September. Investors holding CLI (CLIM) will be holding it' s Reits manager(REIM) component and this REIM will have more stable earnings and not likely  to make losses becos it' s nature now is Reits. So NTA of CLI(CLIM) is $2.82. And with it' s backer Temasek, it is expected to trade above it' s NTA just like any other reputable reits. The worst that will happen is that it will trade at $2.80, slightly lower than it' s NTA on 20 September. So u will be able to get back $2.80 + $0.955 cash + about 0.155 shares of CICT worth about $2.05.  Assuming on 20 September, CICT tank to $2 becos of some selling pressure. We will get back based on WORST scenario $2.80 + $0.955 + 0.155 x $2 = around $4.07 (WORST case) But globally REIMs trade at about 1.5 to 3 times NTA. So I would expect CLI (CLIM) to trade at $3 at least giving Capitaland a vualuation of $4.27 (expected case). When and if CLI(CLIM) is able to trade at the lower range of global average, then assuming 1.5 x NTA = $4.20 giving u a total valuation of  $4.20 + $0.955 + 0.155 x 2 = $5.50   |
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josemmm123
Master |
04-Sep-2021 16:52
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This SPIKE18 really deserve a double oscar award for best actor and liar: It is confirmed that he DID NOT buy or sell capitaland, he has been bashing/attacking/lying about Capitaland. Now he trying to show " sympathy" and feel sorry for those who lost money becos of capitaland. AGAIN he is bashing/attacking/posting negative thigns about capitaland for causing many ppl to lose their money. Next he is saying valuation of capitaland is too high, in other words 2 combos : Capitaland causes ppl to lose money and Valuation is too high.  So now a newbie comes to this forum reading his posting will think: " wow this capitaland so lousy one.. better dun buy if not i also lose money" . We all shd come and clap and give him a standing ovation for best actor and liar award.  Anyway bye bye, u wun be missed.
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Spike18
Member |
04-Sep-2021 14:50
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Thank you for this information.  I look at this company only recently due to the recent corporate action.  I understand now the irritations I have caused when I question the basis of the very positive valuation.  There are people who holds shares at such a high price.  It is understandable that it stirs up emotion especially, if one is holding a lot of shares (70,000 x 3 = 210,000 - paper loss is painful).  I apologise for that. Wtihout going into details, my view/question (not an attempt to spread fear or otherwise), is still vaild : why should the valuation goes up by this corporate action - what changes (the business to be held by CLI has always been there) ? If the price does go up, it is sentiment driven.  And, we can see that there are many who are taking advantage of this arbitrage opportunity - prices varies between 4 to 410 (the theoritical value assigned). Good luck to all who are invested in the stock.  As I have no interest in this stock anymore, there will be no further comment.    Again, my apologies.  
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Lobster
Elite |
04-Sep-2021 08:55
Yells: "Even Adam Khoo believes in the Black Market!" |
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April 2007 when it went as high as $7.25, and hear this,. it' s dovidends then was only $0.04 miserable cents!!. Have to remind you guys also during that time in 2007, when it was $5 plus to $7, a lot of insiders and employees, led by that maid abuser, who were given stock options or shares remuneration, excercised them , and started selling off, and it never recovered from there, Then  came the financial crisis in 2009, it went as Low as $1.40....after it recovered , it became a $3 stock, seldom cross four.
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Adrianinsing
Elite |
04-Sep-2021 05:07
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CapitaLand has been building a good base for quite a while and there is a well known belief in the markets that ... " The bigger the base the higher in space"
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invest8
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03-Sep-2021 22:33
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There was a time when CL was around $7+, before 2008 GFC. Interesting to see if CLI able to do the same, or better..... 
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josemmm123
Master |
03-Sep-2021 22:01
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lousy US job report. Tapering and interest rate hike wun be on the agenda anytime soon, one less thing to worry about .. the party continues :)   |
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invest8
Senior |
03-Sep-2021 21:47
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Well, with a bit of luck.. sometimes short term also can profit and profit big. Those who bought CL shares on 19 Mar, 4 days later he/she huat all the way to the bank liao..  ![]() But  yeah, one with longer term horizon no doubt has better chance of profiting from the stock market.
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Adrianinsing
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03-Sep-2021 21:08
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I totally agree with everything you wrote. I have held CapitaLand since 1987 - in fact I bought it  when it was DBS Land before the merger with Pidemco Land After that I have ridden through the 2008 crisis with it and of course  the drop to $2.51 during the Covid crisis peak in March 2020 and  have reinvested the dividends each year. I have NEVER been more optimistic about the future for CapitaLand  and am extremely happy to receive CLI shares which I plan to hold  for years.  The CapitaLand management and their assets are a massive plus for  CLI and I strongly advise people here on this forum to also take a long term perspective like you have done.   
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tguanhoc
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03-Sep-2021 19:31
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Yes Adrian.   I fully agree.   My Invesment into CLI is long term.   Like I earlier have said, September is usually a month of volitility in Stock Exchanges globally but I have a little concern that SGX is behaving unnaturally and not tandem with the US, Tokyo and our neighbors.   The Singapore dollar has also weakened especially compared to US, AUD and NZD.   These signs appear to smell trouble ahead or perhaps not like what you said.   What seems contradictory is that our Government has adjusted up the GDP estimates up 6 to 7% for 2021.   Our economy is also opening up into a new COVID endemic phase ahead of South Korea.   I am seeking the truth nothing but the truth, that' s all.   These economic signals are jammed with noise.   |
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Tryla888
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03-Sep-2021 19:27
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If anyone needs a piece about holding onto capitaland till Sep. The answer : here is my piece, it's a no brainer, just keep it folks. No need to monitor for awhile. Even if CLI dipped on debut, You have nothing to worry, sit back awhile. That's IMO a good piece of advice to real investor, backed up with my 140,000 shares in capitaland. Cheers! | |||||||
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Kandee
Senior |
03-Sep-2021 19:26
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SGX index has been down from its one time high of 3,800 points many many years ago.      Currently, the component stocks that are pulling it down are the Jardine related companies (HKLand, CC, Dairy Farm) and Capitaland (which has hovered between 2.50 to about 4.00 in recent years).    Once CLI replaces Capitaland, I expect it to go up over the years and when the Jardine group overcomes its current issues I believe that the SGX index will start to move up again.   
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Adrianinsing
Elite |
03-Sep-2021 18:48
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Avoid micro watching  Buy long term then profit 
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invest8
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03-Sep-2021 17:49
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Today closing price $4.02 4 more trading days for CL, then sayonara..  ![]()
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tguanhoc
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03-Sep-2021 17:27
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Thanks Adrian.   I fully agree with your observations and experience in SGX.     |
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Ling9345
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03-Sep-2021 17:10
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Thanks for your good advice👍 👍 👍 👍 I have one problem, love to see every minute I think need to adjust | |||||||
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Adrianinsing
Elite |
03-Sep-2021 16:55
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I have traded Singapore shares since 1987 Markets, including SGX, have ebbs and flows Companies in SGX have nothing intrinsically wrong with them Look at DBS - worlds class management and operations for example Look at OCBC - at undervalued related the net tangible assets SGX will be back - maybe even when HK and US are down  The important thing is patience and avoid daily monitoring  Once you buy and you believe in the company stop watching it on a minute by minute basis I have seen scores of these type of movements and Singapore always comes back To capitulate now is exactly the wrong thing to do  
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