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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Lucky03
Elite |
06-Aug-2014 07:51
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I believe APL owns truck and rail too so they should benefit from the growth in intermodal traffic.
Intermodal traffic on track to outpace 2013 growth, IANA says Mark Szakonyi, Senior Editor | Aug 04, 2014 12:41PM EDT North American intermodal volume growth this year appears to be on track to exceed the 4.6 percent gain seen in 2013 after traffic rocketed 8.2 percent year-over-year in the second quarter. The intermodal traffic growth rate in the April through July period, the healthiest since early 2011, was driven by the railroads catching up on cargo backlogged during the recent harsh winter, an acceleration of imports through the U.S. West Coast and steady domestic intermodal growth, according to the Intermodal Association of North America. The surge in intermodal volume, along with increased carload traffic, has resulted in a sharp deterioration of rail service, causing shipper concern that the major railroads won?t be able to handle the peak shipping season in advance of the winter holidays. Intermodal volume in the first half of the year is up 5.5 percent year-over-year, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the growth seen in the same period last year. ?International volume growth in the (second quarter) may slow in the third quarter. Import volume gains far outstripped still-tepid consumer demand,? IANA said in its second quarter report. ?This lent support to many reports and surveys where shippers noted plans to build inventory ahead of potential labor disruption.? International intermodal volume jumped 9.6 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, as shippers accelerated imports through U.S. West Coast port ahead of the July 1 expiration of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union contract. The union and waterfront employers, which restart negotiations today, have jointly pledged to ?keep cargo moving? even though the six-year contract has expired and there is no contract extension. ?Whatever happens in (the third quarter), longer-term international gains will likely continue as the economy grows,? IANA said. ?And international is slowly inching closer to its pre-recession peak.? IANA said domestic intermodal growth?s 6.9 percent growth in second quarter was ?likely a more reliable indicator? of long-term prospects. For the first time in many quarters, domestic intermodal growth was outpaced by international intermodal gains. Still, tightening truck capacity ? albeit a slight loosening occurred in the second quarter as seasonal demand weakened ? suggests the steady conversion of highway loads to rail will continue. Intermodal marketing companies tapped a smaller share of the intermodal growth in the second quarter, seeing their volume rise only 2.4 percent, IANA said. IMCs are generally more focused in domestic intermodal transport, although they likely gained some volume through the transloading of imports into 53-foot containers. J.B. Hunt, the largest U.S. IMC, recently told investors during a second-quarter earnings call that a reduction in intermodal rail service cost them loads.The Lowell, Arkansas-based company has lowered its 2014 intermodal growth projects to 7 to 10 percent from 10 to 14 percent. IMCs saw their highway volume slip 0.5 percent year-over-year but leap 11.2 percent on a sequential basis, suggesting the sector might be poised for growth in the third quarter, IANA said. ?The big question will be whether there is sufficient truck capacity for IMCs to grow their highway segment,? IANA said. The IMCs saw on average better intermodal and truck pricing in the second quarter tightening truck capacity is allowing motor carriers to raise their rates, and Class I railroads and IMCs to follow suit. The average revenue per intermodal load rose 6 percent year-over-over to $2,884 in the second quarter, while the average revenue per highway load jumped 16.3 percent to $1,655. ?As rail networks improve service following the winter challenge, this should provide IMCs with an opportunity to boost intermodal volume growth above its recent pace,? IANA said. ?In the highway sector, on the other hand, it is likely that trucking capacity will remain tight, making recovery in highway growth more challenging for IMCs.? Contact Mark Szakonyi at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter:@szakonyi_joc. |
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Lucky03
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06-Aug-2014 07:48
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Perhaps this may have impact on the 'supply' side of the equation.
Home / Shipping News / International Shipping News / Idle boxship fleet falls to three-year low due to Manila, Tunisia port congestion Idle boxship fleet falls to three-year low due to Manila, Tunisia port congestion in International Shipping News 05/08/2014 The idle containership fleet has fallen to a three-year low as port congestion in the Philippines and Tunisia soaks up tonnage. According to analyst Alphaliner the idle containership fleet 119 vessels over 500 teu, totalling 230,900 teu as of 28 July. It is the lowest level since August 2011 and the number of idle vessels in the 500 ? 2,000 teu range fell to 85 from 97 units over the last two weeks ?The fall is mostly caused by the extra ships needed to cater for severe port congestion at Manila and in Tunisia, where ships have to wait between two and four weeks for a berth,? Alphaliner said in its weekly newsletter. Manila has experienced severe congestion since February when a truck was enforced in the city centre of the Philippines capital leaving thousands of boxes stranded in the city?s container terminals. Some lines have added calls at Batangas to try and deal with the problems. Source: Seatrade Global |
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Lucky03
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06-Aug-2014 07:46
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Home / Shipping News / International Shipping News / Supply-Demand balance set to become more stable
Supply-Demand balance set to become more stable in International Shipping News 05/08/2014 Bigger consortia and alliances enable ocean carriers to sweat their assets more efficiently, but there is also an opportunity to better fine tune vessel capacity to seasonal cargo demand, which will probably be seized. Although the main benefit of mega-alliances is to reduce operating costs, those currently in the making also provide ocean carriers with an opportunity to better match supply and demand, which they are likely to seize. As explained in ?Consortia and alliances set for further expansion?, just four carrier groupings could control 98.5% of all effective vessel capacity from Asia to Europe by the beginning of next year, for example, making it easier to fine tune vessel capacity. The need to regularly adjust vessel capacity to meet seasonal cargo demand is highlighted in Figures 1 and 2, and should not be underestimated. Not only the winter season is involved. Figure 1 Asia to WCNA Cargo Seasonality (?000 teu) Source: Drewry Maritime Research Figure 2 Asia to North Europe Cargo Seasonality (?000 teu) Source: Drewry Maritime Research A drawback of vessels getting bigger is that withdrawing whole services during the winter season has become too ?chunky?, particularly between Asia and Europe ? hence the trend of cancelling sailings instead. Obviously, the bigger an alliance or consortium, the smoother the schedule disruption caused by an omission, and the more alternative sailings there are to cater for roll-overs etc. Moreover, port calls of other services can also be rationalised to help out. But even this is a messy business. Most exporters want a steady supply of vessel capacity, and cannot easily adjust production just to meet ocean carriers? requirements, so may not always wait a week for the next sailing. The problem is that if the next carrier in line has also cancelled a sailing, panic could set in. Capacity management between alliances and consortia to avoid this is illegal, but it does not prevent members from looking over each other?s shoulder to see when sailings cancellations are announced, or capacity added through vessel upgrading, in order to avoid duplication. It can happen now, and probably is, as ocean carriers have already become better at fine tuning capacity this year, and the process could become even easier in future due to a reduction in the number of players involved. There is still much stabilization required, as indicated in the continuing volatility of the spot freight rate market (see Figures 3 and 4). Spot freight rates are, of course, not only determined by the balance between supply and demand, but it is an important ingredient, making the way prices change a useful indicator of imbalances. Figure 3 Spot Freight Rate Volatility from Hong Kong to Los Angeles ($ per 40ft) Source: Drewry?s Container Freight Rate Insight (www.drewry.co.uk/cfri) Figure 4 Spot Freight Rate Volatility from Shanghai to Rotterdam ($ per 40ft) Source: Drewry?s Container Freight Rate Insight (www.drewry.co.uk/cfri) In theory, if alliances get better at matching supply and demand, this means that freight rates should become more stable too. But carriers? tendencies to reduce rates to fill ships, and the fragmentation of the market between many competitors, run counter to price stability. Better capacity management within larger consortia and alliances will be further encouraged by the need to restore the pace at which operating costs are cut. Figure 5 shows the way that it has declined since 2008 on a per teu basis. The introduction of slow streaming is 2009 and 2010 was always going to be a hard act to follow, and has since been only partially replaced by improved economies of scale through the deployment of more ULCVs and bigger alliances. Figure 5 Carriers? Operating Cost per teu Between 2008 and 2013 ($ per teu) Source: Drewry Maritime Research For the sample shown, deep-sea carriers? average operating costs even increased by 7% in 2011, from $1,240/teu to $1,327/teu, mostly due to a 40% increase in fuel price, followed by another 1% in 2012, when average fuel price rose by 4%, but then fell by 7% last year, partly due to a 6% drop in fuel price (see Figure 6). Figure 6 Comparison of All Carriers? Average Operating Cost and Fuel Price Source: Drewry Maritime Research Reduced fuel prices are unlikely to come to ocean carriers? rescue again after the end of this year now that the worst days of the recession are over, and further eco-taxation on fuel is due from the beginning of 2015 ? which makes the need for further cost cutting action imperative, considering that most ocean carriers have already been losing money for too long. Ocean carriers can, of course, continue reducing speed to cut operating costs, and will do so, but the risk of losing market share is high if others don?t immediately follow. Our View The balance between supply and demand in the headhaul direction of East-West trades should be better managed by carriers next year due to the introduction of bigger alliances and consortia. Source: Drewry Maritime Research (www.drewry.co.uk/ciw) |
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Lucky03
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06-Aug-2014 07:30
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PUBLISHED AUGUST 05, 2014 US factory orders rise solidly in June, inventories slow [WASHINGTON] New orders for US factory goods rose more than expected in June as demand increased across the board, pointing to a strengthening in manufacturing activity. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1 per cent after a downwardly revised 0.6 per cent decline in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new orders received by factories rising only 0.6 per cent after May's previously reported 0.5 per cent fall. Manufacturing is expanding strongly, helping to keep the economy on solid ground. A survey last Friday showing new orders at the nation's factories surged in July. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
06-Aug-2014 07:29
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PUBLISHED AUGUST 05, 2014
July global business activity picked up at fastest pace since Feb 201: PMI [LONDON] Global business activity picked up last month at its fastest pace since early 2011 as sustained strengthening in the service industry offset a mild deceleration in factory output, a survey showed on Tuesday. JP Morgan's Global All-Industry Output Index, produced with Markit, rose to 55.5 from June's 55.4, holding above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for the 22nd month running and chalking up its highest reading since February 2011. "The July manufacturing and service sector PMI surveys signal a robust start to the second half of the year," said Joseph Lupton, senior economist at JP Morgan. "Taken together, the July surveys point to global GDP growth running well above its trend in the third quarter ... This would mark a welcome relief following the disappointing first half of the year." |
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Lucky03
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05-Aug-2014 22:20
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GREEK shipowners, long the mainstay of the bulk and tanker market, are making serious moves in containership sector, reports London's Lloyd's List.
Tuesday, 05.Aug.2014, 07:33 (GMT) Greek bulker and tanker owners show new interest in containerships GREEK shipowners, long the mainstay of the bulk and tanker market, are making serious moves in containership sector, reports London's Lloyd's List. Three New York-listed owners all reported new container deals or outlined imminent growth in a sector, which had not much interested them in the past. Navios Maritime Partners has unveiled the US$117.7 million acquisition of two 8,200 TEUers with charters back for at least four years to the selling company. Identities of the ships were not revealed, but the deal was made with Yang Ming Transport and involves the 2006-built pair YM Utmost and YM Unison, said the report. Navios made its start in containers last year with an internal joint venture that took on five feeder-size vessels from HSH Nordbank. Then it took five 6,800-TEU ships already chartered to Hyundai Merchant Marine. Tanker owner Capital Product Partners for the past couple of years has been working to introduce containerships on multi-year charters to strengthen cashflow and confidence in its shareholder distribution, said Lloyd's List. It has just agreed to acquire from its privately-held sponsor Capital Maritime three 9,160-TEU newbuilds for delivery next year to go on five-year charters to CMA CGM. Capital Maritime has several postpanamaxes on order that could be offered to the partnership at a later date, although these are with a private equity partner as majority investor, which would have the final say. New York-listed Diana Shipping is shopping for boxships and bulkers, having just announced its participation, along with an outside US investment fund, in a US$92 million capital expansion for affiliate Diana Containerships. Management described the move as a transformation for Diana Containerships, resulting in a company with greater capital resources that can seize opportunities in the sector. Deployment of part of the new funds is believed to be imminent. Shipping sources have told Lloyd's List that Diana Containerships is poised to acquire two 5,500 TEU ships "within days". |
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earlybird14
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05-Aug-2014 08:50
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http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp Very encouraging. Will it be sustainable? US Freight rate really increase a lot
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Lucky03
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05-Aug-2014 06:51
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[LONDON] Mounting evidence that Britain's economic recovery is becoming more entrenched prompted a leading think tank to bump up its 2014 economic growth forecast for the country on Tuesday.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it expected the British economy to grow 3.0 per cent this year, up from 2.9 per cent in a previous forecast. But while the economy finally outgrew its 2008 pre-crisis peak level in the second quarter, NIESR said it could take until 2017 until output per person recovers. The research body reiterated that the puzzle of Britain's poor productivity levels - among the worst in the Group of Seven rich nations - was a cause for uncertainty. |
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Lucky03
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04-Aug-2014 23:46
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BUOYED by higher production levels and new orders, Singapore's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surpassed expectations, rising one point from June to 51.5 in July.
Private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg had earlier forecast a reading of 50.7. A reading above 50 denotes growth, while one under 50 points to a contraction in the manufacturing sector. "Overall stockholdings of finished goods, imports, and employment continued to expand while input prices contracted for the second time after having recorded 18 consecutive months of expansion," said the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM). |
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Lucky03
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04-Aug-2014 22:42
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ASIA-EUROPE spot rates jumped 21 per cent to US$1,455 TEU in the week ending on Friday, according to data from the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, Reuters reports.
Sunday, 03.Aug.2014, 20:58 (GMT) Asia-North Europe rate jumps 21pc to US$1,455 TEU in a single week ASIA-EUROPE spot rates jumped 21 per cent to US$1,455 TEU in the week ending on Friday, according to data from the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, Reuters reports. It was the first time rates on the Asia-North Europe route rose since July 4, when they jumped 28 per cent, having only increased in 10 weeks this year and fallen in 21. Average rates for 2014 on the routes are $1,278 per TEU compared with $1,090 last year. Rates for the US east coast rose 17 per cent last week to $4,187. The comprehensive index rose 13 per cent to $1,195 per TEU. |
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Lucky03
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04-Aug-2014 22:38
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Rising Asian factory orders ?good news? for carriers
Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Aug 03, 2014 2:30PM EDT China?s factory output and total new orders in July rose to their highest levels since March last year, improving the operating conditions of mainland manufacturers and supporting carrier predictions of third quarter container volume increases in the seasonal build up to Christmas. Growing external demand as the economies of the U.S. and Europe continue to recover is driving a manufacturing boom across Asian economies, and the rising factory output will be good news to the container shipping industry struggling to fill a glut of tonnage. Growth accelerating in east-west headhaul lanes China?s recent export figures have been better than expected as the economic recovery of the U.S. and Europe continues to drive higher consumer spending. Manufacturing output in mainland China is up, and ports and shipping lines are reporting impressive gains in container volume. Year-to-date through May, Asia-to-Europe container volumes are up 8 percent, according to Container Trades Statistics, versus virtually no growth during the same period in 2013. Asia-to-North America volumes are up 4.7 percent year-to-date through June, versus only 1.5 percent growth in the same period in 2013, according to PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc. New export orders hit highs not seen for three-and-a-half years, according to the HSBC purchasing managers? index (PMI), an indicator of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy. The PMI reached 51.7 in July, up from 50.7 in June, signaling a further improvement in the health of China‟ s manufacturing sector. It was the strongest rate of improvement for a year and a half. Hongbin Qu, HSBC?s chief economist, China, and co-head of Asian economic research, said China?s economy is improving sequentially and registered across-the-board improvement compared with June. ?Policy makers are continuing with targeted easing in recent weeks and we expect the cumulative impact of these measures to filter through in the next few months and help consolidate the recovery,? he said. The bank found some manufacturers said production rose in line with greater volumes of new work, which was highlighted by a solid increase in total new business placed at Chinese goods producers. New orders from abroad also rose at a faster pace in July, with the latest expansion of new export order books the second strongest in 44 months. ?Anecdotal evidence suggested that input buying rose in line with stronger inflows of new work and subsequent plans to raise productive capacity. As a result, stocks of purchases increased, albeit marginally, following no change in June,? HSBC said in a statement. In Taiwan, factory output showed total new orders and new export orders rising sharply in July, the strongest expansion since 2010. At 55.8, the HSBC PMI was up from 54.0 in June, signaling a robust improvement in the health of Taiwan?s manufacturing sector. ?Taiwan?s economy is lifting off as demand and output conditions improve simultaneously. The increase in output in July looks sustainable as well, given the corresponding acceleration in new orders both at home and abroad,? HSBC economist John Zhu said. Business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector improved for a ninth consecutive month in July as companies scaled up production in response to strong demand. The PMI reached 53.0 in July, up from 51.5 in June, as factory orders and new export business increased. ?Finally, the manufacturing sector is starting to pick up steam. A flood of new orders from both domestic and external sources has led to a surge in activity, pushing the manufacturing PMI to a 17-month high,? said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC. However, business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing growth, as both output and new orders increased at weaker rates in July than they had in June. The PMI fell to 51.7 from 52.3 in June. New orders slowed in July, which was the weakest month since February. A solid improvement in operating conditions in the Indonesian manufacturing sector in July saw a further expansion in new orders that caused firms to raise production levels. Output increased for a third successive month, and the rate at which companies scaled up production was the highest recorded since the survey began in April 2011, HSBC said in a statement. Anecdotal evidence linked rising production to strengthening order books. The PMI in July was unchanged from June?s high of 52.7. ?The PMI is once again in record territory, primarily due to strong domestic rather than external demand,? said Su Sian Lim, ASEAN economist at HSBC. However, she added that new export orders continued to shrink. South Korea was the dark spot in the manufacturing index as factory output and new orders fell, dragging the PMI to 49.3 in July, below the 50.0 no-change mark for the third consecutive month and signaling worsening business conditions in the country?s manufacturing sector. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler. |
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Trespasserx
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04-Aug-2014 15:43
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100 lots throw at 945 not looking good... A sign of thing to come or to deceive all.. | ||||
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 15:22
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Just bear in mind NOL has received almost all the vessels for own operation in 2013. Majority of vessels received in 2014 will be chartered to MOL which mean NOL become charterer but bear the debt and earn daily rate. Therefore, last quarter result is justifiable for the performance of the rest of the quarter (which i think, may be no right). You also can refer to 2012 result to see how much cost cutting NOL said they achieved. Then, see again how much cost cutting NOL said they achieved in 2013. If add on the total cost cutting for last 2 years they achived, 20141Q shall be as profit as Maersk. But fact is still making loss. Can you really believe their cost cutting plan and their management the fact they delivered to the market? CSM CEO also wanted to make profit, I deeply believed so. But he failed, no his fault, it is the structural of the market. Now Global Foundry took over, may be better, we don' t know. Compared to others, Risk on NOL is high, since you believe NOL can turnaround, at the same time, you are taking the risk of turning worse. All the best to you. |
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Lucky03
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04-Aug-2014 13:50
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Earlybird, NOL heard you that it will be difficult to implement aggressive cost cutting while remaining nimble to respond to market demand and customer needs. That's why they reorganized their management hierarchy and structure from geographical to a functional one. I highlighted earlier that a shipping veteran who turned consultant had advocated change of business model for liners business which has many recommendations already being executed by NOL. Nothing is guarantee. Will have to also see the management skill in maneuvering in such difficult but improving times. No one wants to forgive a loss making set of results esp over 3 years but most of the measures taken including the CEO taking over in Sep 2011 after announcing 2 quarter of losses in 2011 were made thereafter.
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stevenk
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04-Aug-2014 13:12
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NOL is gaining strength. Going up. :) |
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 10:25
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Frankly speaking, I hope I am wrong. I have no position, not short no long. May be holders here don' t believe. Again, I had been followed up closely with NOL since downturn 2011 and did my own research and in and out few times to earn small amount profit from NOL. The cost cutting in 2012 and 2013 disappointed me and made me realised that it is difficult to implement the plan across NOL based on the amount of cost cutting is not justifiable with the amount of loss they had made. I KIV NOL since last year and no trading it. But somebody keep posting positive and overoptimistic on NOL, which make me provide the other way view to KIV forummers here to judge themselve. If NOL go well, it will benefit no only the shareholders but also those working in NOL. My office is in PSA Building. Seeing the NOL building is going to renovate and change name, I am quite sad actually. Anyway, all the best to you. Result will be out this week and picture will be clearer to holders or KIVs. Let' s hope NOL can do well and survive.
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counter
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04-Aug-2014 10:11
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Revenue is a function of price and quantity. A fall in price is problematic if the proportionate fall is greater the the proportionate increase in the quantity as this will result in a fall in revenue. However, recent data in the shipping industry have shown that the proportionate increase in the volume is greater than the proportionate decrease in the freight charge and this explains why many shipping companies are experiencing an increase in revenue. Your previous posts have virtually ignored the part on rising volume and I glad that you are finally taking it into consideration. Given the greater proportionate increase in the volume, an omission of this fact is unlikely to give interested parties a good picture of the shipping industry. Maersk is a good company. However, NOL does not need to be as good as Maersk to be profitable. Therefore, in my opinion, Maersk and for that matter, the top 3, is largely to the discussion here. The important question is whether NOL will turn profitable and therefore whether the price will rise from the current level. As an investor, this is what I am more interested in. I agree with you said that given their liability condition, NOL may have difficulty in getting a second chance to restructure. However, it may turn out to be a blessing to the shareholders as it will make privatisation likely. You can refer to a post by bro lucky03 on privatisation and restructuring. The coming quarter result is indeed a good indication of where NOL is heading. However, I do not see it as &lsquo The Judgement Day&rsquo . There is still a long road ahead. Life is full of unforeseen contingencies. Let us don&rsquo t presume that we can predict the future.
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 09:07
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Global Container shipping volumes are growing since 2009 and 2013 volume is much higher than 2008 volume before crisis. However freight rate stay flat and Maersk earn billion dollar. the freight rate is unlikely to go back to 2005 to 2007 level. Just touching 2006 level will trigger Maersk, MSC and CMA who are relatively financial strong to order more new vessels to deal with the demand and push down the freight rate. Top3 have set bench mark for global container shipping players, this is the freight rate for all, survive or consolidated. Anyway, this is the overall market trend. NOL has its own problem, MARGIN AND LIABILITIES!!!!
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 08:54
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Shipping industry is negative in the sense of container freight rate. However the volume is increasing in past 3 years. This is why Maersk made billion dollar of profit. Volume is good but price is bad due to overcapacity. I have been focusing on pointing NOL operation instead of the the whole global shipping industry. I indicated that this is a structural change of this industry and this container freight rate will be continue and stay flat. Whoever cannot operate with positive profit margin, will be kicked off from the market or merged will other to look for a structural change. The market is required to be consolidated and NOL will be the one to be consolidate, just a matter of time. Top 3 are a very successful example and they have no worry about the current low freight rate. They have been restructure their routes and schedule with their huge fleet and achieve profitable from the high volume low freight rate market. NOL has failed in last year and 1st quarter of this year. If coming quarter still show the same, it imply their business model and cost cutting cannot survive in current market. Their liability condition cannot allow to give them second chance to restructure unless Temasek really pump in billion dollar to restructure it and merge with other weak competitors. NOL is going to drop from top 8 to top 14 in next 2 year since she has no new container vessels to be delivered. So, they cannot duplicate what Top 3 are doing. Coming quarter result is critical, not only the profit margin but also the cash flow.
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counter
Veteran |
04-Aug-2014 08:39
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As the US economy and many others are picking up, the volume in the next 18 months is likely to be higher than that in the last 18 months.
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