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up and coming
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:58
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Gemini saidThis video, titled " We Didn&rsquo t Start the Fire Parody: Trump, Vance, Hegseth & Rubio Defeat Iran Regime-MAGA Heroes Epic!" by the channel FTL, is a parody of the Billy Joel classic. Based on the transcript, here are the lyrics as performed in the video:
Opening ChorusThrough generations past, we didn&rsquo t light the crash, But we' ll have it now, America first and last. [00:42]Verse 1: Vision and StrengthFrom the lion' s gold, like a king, power explode, Deal sign, Abraham Road, peace of light speed wind deep down. [00:20] Shine light, Trump, the greatest legend strong, America first all along. [00:31] Workers call, America first, never war, Vision bright, pure might. [00:58]Verse 2: Key FiguresThe thinker, steel so true, [01:10] Surprises been so tough, combat pro, rough enough, [01:30] And a gun chief high, war could touch the sky, Sharp stand strong, please might unbound. [01:41] Allies real, brings day and night, Stand on four stories told, me voice so grand, Heroes come. [02:09]Verse 3: Historical Conflict & 19791977, &rsquo 79, terror on embassy, sees hostages held, [02:38] Four-four rise score on the land, nightmare long, endless war. 1983 blast, proxy to press the mass, [02:52] Towers, Air Force down, Iraq all around, Faces struck, ships in peril. [03:00] Their abundance, fear runs deep, American lives they seek to heal, the best for gold. [03:04]Chorus (Repeated)Through generations past, we didn&rsquo t light the class, [03:25] But we' re living now, yeah. [03:31]
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:53
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uFId0l_-5Q& list=RD5uFId0l_-5Q& start_radio=1
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:47
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUHkdv3ottI
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:40
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlPApZCqtyA& list=RDLlPApZCqtyA& start_radio=1
https://www.metalsdaily.com/live-prices/gold/
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:35
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https://oilprice.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OP8uwgmgs4& list=RDVZBuwTGVN4w& index=2
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chartiskao
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 21:29
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZBuwTGVN4w& list=RDVZBuwTGVN4w& start_radio=1Verse
Havana, ooh na-naMeaning:
Verse He didn&rsquo t go soft on the old arrangementsMeaning:
Chorus Take me back to libertyMeaning:
Verse From Miami cheer the dreamersMeaning
🎯 Overall meaningThis remix is:
Cuba-freedom songs appearing again in 2026 politics is not random. It is connected to rising global tension, U.S. elections, oil crisis fears, and Cold-War style geopolitics. When world tension rises, old symbols like Cuba, freedom, communism, liberty songs come back. Below is the real reason step-by-step. 1. Return of Cold War style politicsAfter conflicts involving the U.S., Iran, Russia, and China, many analysts say the world feels similar to the Cold War period.During the Cold War:
2. U.S. election politics (2024&ndash 2028 cycle influence)Songs like this remix mention politicians such as:
3. 2026 oil shock / Middle East crisis / global instabilityYou asked before about oil shock &rarr this matters.When oil crisis or war happens, people fear:
4. Cuba protests and exile politics never disappearedFreedom songs often appear when Cuba news becomes active again.Example:
That&rsquo s why lyrics mention: Miami cheering, freedom, liberty, Havana 5. Social media culture in 2026 &rarr politics + music mixToday politics spreads through:
6. Big picture (why now)
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chartistkaohz
Elite |
20-Mar-2026 11:47
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This is a solid pedagogical framework ? clean, memorable, and directionally correct. Let me give you the honest professional critique, because there are real strengths here but also some gaps that matter.
What this gets right The 3-signal logic is sound in principle. Credit spreads as the "fear gauge" is genuinely how credit desks and macro funds think. The sequencing ? banks first, holding companies second, property last ? reflects real sector recovery dynamics. The anti-retail insight ("buy when news is worst") is the core of contrarian value investing. The phase model is useful. Shock → Panic → Stabilization → Recovery maps reasonably well to how crises unfold. Where it oversimplifies (and this matters for real capital) 1. The oil trigger is context-dependent Oil at $120 means very different things depending on why it spiked. Supply shock from a Hormuz closure? Demand-driven because Asia is booming? The former is deflationary for growth and bad for banks for longer. The latter is actually bullish. The price level alone doesn't tell you which scenario you're in. 2. The credit spread thresholds are US-centric 500 bps on US HY spreads doesn't automatically translate into a buying signal for SGX-listed banks. What matters more for UOB specifically is: SIBOR/SORA curve, Singapore interbank stress indicators, and regional EM credit spreads ? not just US HY. 3. "Rates stop rising" is harder to identify in real time than it looks The Fed paused in 2023 ? and then hiked again. You don't know it's a peak until after the fact. Funds manage this by scaling in, not deploying a lump sum at a single trigger point. 4. Missing signal: USD strength For Singapore banks and Haw Par (which has significant USD-denominated Tiger Balm revenues and UOB equity exposure), DXY trajectory matters enormously. A strong USD during a crisis compresses SGD returns for foreign investors and tightens regional liquidity independently of Fed rate direction. 5. Haw Par's discount is structural, not just crisis-driven The holding company discount on Haw Par doesn't just widen during credit stress ? it's permanently wide (30?40%+) because of the conglomerate structure and low free float. The crisis opportunity isn't "discount widens more" so much as "underlying UOB shares get mispriced, pulling Haw Par down with them even though the Tiger Balm cash flow is uncorrelated." What I'd add to make this institutional-grade Missing Signal Why It Matters USD/SGD and DXY Regional liquidity and SGD asset returns Singapore PMI / trade data UOB's loan book is trade-finance heavy China credit impulse Haw Par and UOL both have China exposure SGX short interest on UOB Shows when forced selling is actually happening On the historical replay offer 2008 and 2020 are genuinely instructive ? but worth noting that 2020 was a uniquely fast V-recovery driven by unprecedented fiscal + monetary response that was not predictable from the 3-signal model alone. Anyone who waited for "all 3 signals to align" in March 2020 probably missed the bottom entirely, because spreads peaked and then collapsed within weeks. The more honest lesson from 2020: position sizing and scale-in discipline mattered more than pinpoint timing. |
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chartistkaohz
Elite |
19-Mar-2026 10:06
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Here?s a structured strategic report based on Ray Dalio?s article, using your requested framework:
📊 Strategic Report: Strait of Hormuz ?Final Battle? 1. 🧩 FEATURES (Core Dynamics of the Situation) Control of Strait of Hormuz determines: Global oil flow (~20?30% of world supply) Military credibility of major powers Stability of global financial system Binary outcome: US controls → maintains global order Iran controls → signals US decline Embedded in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order framework: Debt cycle Political cycle Geopolitical cycle Technology Natural forces 2. 📍 TOUCHPOINTS (Where Impact is Felt) A. Geopolitical United States credibility Iran strategic leverage Gulf allies (Saudi, UAE) security dependence B. Economic / Financial Oil markets (price spikes, supply shocks) Currency markets (USD vs gold) Sovereign debt confidence C. Market Transmission Channels Shipping lanes Energy infrastructure Global trade routes D. Historical Benchmark Suez Canal Crisis → symbol of empire decline 3. 🚀 GAINPOINTS (Upside Opportunities) If US Wins Control: Reinforced USD dominance Increased global confidence in US Treasuries Stabilization of oil flows → lower volatility Stronger alliance system For Investors: Risk assets rebound (equities, banks) Capital flows back to US and allies Shipping & logistics normalize 4. ⚠ ️ PAINPOINTS (Key Risks & Negative Outcomes) If US Loses Control: Collapse in confidence in US leadership Oil supply disruption → inflation shock Capital flight: Out of USD assets Into gold / safe havens Structural Risks: Breakdown of global order (post-1945 system) Allies lose trust in US protection Weaponization of trade routes 5. 🧱 CHALLENGES (Why This is Hard to Resolve) A. Military Reality Narrow chokepoint favors asymmetric warfare (mines, missiles) Iran doesn?t need full control?just disruption capability B. Political Constraints Democracies (like US): Low tolerance for prolonged war Election cycles (midterms) C. Strategic Asymmetry Iran strategy: Prolong conflict Increase pain gradually US weakness: Multi-war limitations Domestic divisions D. Alliance Coordination Need coalition support (NATO, Gulf states) Difficulty aligning global interests quickly 6. 🛠 ️ SOLUTIONS (Strategic Responses) A. Military / Tactical Multinational naval coalition to secure passage Escort systems for oil tankers (like Reagan-era strategy) Preemptive clearing of mines & threats B. Economic / Financial Stabilize oil markets via: Strategic reserves Alternative supply chains Reinforce USD confidence: Monetary stability Debt credibility C. Geopolitical Strategy Strengthen alliances (burden sharing) Demonstrate decisive capability (deterrence signaling) D. Long-Term Structural Reduce dependency on chokepoints: Energy diversification Alternative trade routes 🧠 KEY STRATEGIC INSIGHT (Dalio?s Core Principle) When a dominant power fails to control a critical trade route, it risks: Losing reserve currency status Triggering capital flight Accelerating empire decline 📈 INVESTOR INTERPRETATION (What Smart Money Watches) Signals of US Strength: Stable oil flow through Hormuz USD strength vs gold Tight credit spreads Signals of US Weakness: Oil spike + shipping disruption Gold surge vs USD Foreign selling of US Treasuries 🎯 FINAL TAKEAWAY This is not just a regional conflict. It is a global system test: Military power Financial dominance Confidence in world order Like the Suez Canal Crisis, the outcome will determine: 👉 Who leads the next phase of the global order 👉 Where capital flows for the next decade If you want, I can take this further: 👉 Map this directly to Singapore stocks (UOB, DBS, Haw Par, shipping, oil) and show how hedge funds position before and after the ?final battle.? |
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chartistkao3
Elite |
19-Mar-2026 05:27
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Here?s a structured breakdown (features → touchpoints → gain points → pain points → challenges → solutions) of why Donald Trump blasted NATO as ?foolish? over Iran 👇
🧠 1. Core Situation (Feature) US is leading a military confrontation involving Iran Key issue: securing the Strait of Hormuz (oil chokepoint) NATO allies (Europe) refuse to join military operations Trump says: NATO is making a ?foolish mistake? US ?does not need help? � The Times +1 👉 This creates a major split inside NATO 🔗 2. Touchpoints (Where conflict happens) A. Military burden sharing US expects NATO to help secure global oil routes Europe refuses → sees it as not their war � Reuters B. Strategy mismatch US approach = military pressure Europe approach = diplomacy / de-escalation C. Alliance expectations NATO is a defensive alliance US request looks like offensive intervention 📈 3. Gain Points (Trump?s perspective) 1. Reinforce ?America First? Shows US can act alone Strengthens domestic political narrative 2. Pressure NATO Push allies to: Increase military spending Take more responsibility 3. Strategic signaling Sends message to Iran: US is strong even without allies 📉 4. Pain Points 1. Alliance fracture Weakens trust inside NATO Public disagreement between US & Europe 2. Isolation risk US appears unilateral / unpredictable 3. Credibility issue Contradiction: First asks for help Then says ?we don?t need help? ⚠ ️ 5. Challenges A. Political (Europe) Leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer face: Anti-war public opinion Fear of escalation � The Times +1 B. Strategic Iran conflict could: Expand regionally Disrupt global oil supply C. Structural NATO problem NATO designed for: defense (Article 5) Not for: US-led offensive wars 🛠 ️ 6. Solutions (Realistic paths forward) 1. ?Hybrid cooperation? Europe avoids combat But supports: logistics naval escort later 👉 (France hinted at this) � The Times 2. Burden-sharing reset US: clearer war objectives NATO: defined roles (not full participation) 3. Diplomatic off-ramp Europe leads negotiations with Iran US maintains military pressure 4. Strategic sequencing (what smart money sees) This is important given your investing angle: Phase 1: US acts alone → uncertainty spike Phase 2: NATO tension → markets panic Phase 3: Partial cooperation → stabilization 👉 This is when institutional investors start buying risk assets again 🧩 Big Picture Insight This isn?t just about Iran. It?s really about: 👉 Who controls global security leadership? US unilateral model (Trump) vs Multilateral model (Europe/NATO) 💡 Simple Summary Trump calls NATO ?foolish? because: Allies refused to support US military action He sees NATO as not pulling its weight Europe sees the war as too risky and unnecessary |
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chartiskao
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 21:42
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoMG0nwDADc
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chartiskao
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 21:37
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax5kTWBEoZo& list=RDax5kTWBEoZo& start_radio=1
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chartiskao
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 20:26
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describe a possible / developing oil shock scenario, not a confirmed historical event yet. So the question &ldquo who caused the 2026 oil shock&rdquo needs to be answered carefully. What analysts are talking about is a geopolitical risk scenario centered on Iran, the U.S., and the Strait of Hormuz, and that&rsquo s why they compare it to the 1970s oil shock and stagflation. I&rsquo ll explain clearly. 1. Who is seen as causing the 2026 oil shock (in the scenario analysts discuss)Most reports link the risk to tensions involving
Typical trigger analysts worry about:
Important: Analysts don&rsquo t say one side alone caused it &mdash they say the shock comes from geopolitical conflict disrupting supply, not from normal market forces. 2. Why analysts compare this to the 1970s oil shockThey compare it to the 1973 oil crisis and 1979 oil crisis, which caused global stagflation.Key historical events:
High inflation + low growth = stagflation 3. What stagflation meansStagflation =
4. Why investors fear the same thing in 2026Analysts say today looks similar to the 1970s because:✅ Oil supply risk againHormuz risk like OPEC embargo before.✅ Already high global debtGovernments cannot easily stimulate economy.✅ Inflation already elevatedOil shock could push it higher.✅ Interest rates highCentral banks cannot cut fast.✅ War risk higher than normalMiddle East, Russia, Asia tensions.So markets worry about: 1970s-style stagflation cycle returning. 5. Why bank stocks fall when oil spikes (same as 1970s)In the 1970s:
OCBC / UOB / DBS risk. 6. Key takeawayThe screenshots are basically warning:If Hormuz disruption happens, the world could face the biggest oil shock since the 1970s, and that could bring stagflation again.
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chartiskao
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 20:24
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f a summary explaining what could happen if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted and why it would cause a global economic shock. I&rsquo ll explain the key points in simple terms.
1. Why the Strait of Hormuz matters
If Hormuz closes &rarr global oil supply drops &rarr prices jump fast. 2. U.S. emergency actions already usedThe text says the U.S. has already used temporary measures:
Governments can slow the crisis, but cannot fully stop it. 3. Possible oil price shockIf the strait stays closed for weeks:
4. Economic & political impactThe images say a long disruption would cause:
Energy shock &rarr inflation &rarr recession risk &rarr market crash risk. 5. What governments can still doPossible options mentioned:
The real solution is reopening the Strait of Hormuz.If it stays blocked, the world cannot avoid a supply crisis. 6. Overall meaning of the two imagesThese screenshots are basically saying:The global economy is fragile because too much oil depends on one narrow route.
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chartistkaohz
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 09:27
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Great ? now let?s take that idea one level deeper and combine hedge fund capital flow + Warren Buffett thinking into one clear framework.
🧠 Core Idea Why do funds buy United Overseas Bank / Singapore banks first, then later rotate into Tencent and Trip.com? 👉 Because capital always moves from certainty → growth, not the other way. Buffett has been doing this for decades (even if people don?t notice). 🪙 1. Phase 1 ? ?Survival & Cash Flow? (Buy Banks First) 🏦 What hedge funds buy: United Overseas Bank Other Singapore banks 🧠 Buffett Thinking Applied 1. ?Don?t lose money? In crisis (war, oil shock, geopolitical tension): First priority = capital preservation Banks with strong balance sheets = lowest risk entry point 👉 Buffett during crises: Bought banks like Goldman Sachs (2008) Focused on cash flow + survival, not growth 🔹 Why banks first? Features Strong capital buffers Essential to economy (loans, payments) Touchpoints Interest income Deposits inflow (flight to safety) ✅ Gain Points Higher interest margins Market panic = cheaper valuations Dividends continue ❌ Pain Points Loan growth slows Bad debts may rise ⚠ ️ Challenge Economic slowdown 🛠 ️ Buffett Solution ?Buy wonderful businesses at a fair price ? especially when others are fearful.? 👉 Banks = predictable, understandable, necessary 🚀 2. Phase 2 ? ?Stabilization Signal? This is where most retail investors are late. 👉 When banks: Stop falling Start recovering Maintain dividends ➡ ️ This signals: ?System is stable. Risk can be taken again.? Buffett idea: ?Be greedy when others are fearful ? but only when survival is clear.? 🌏 3. Phase 3 ? ?Growth & Re-rating? (Rotate into Tech) 📱 What hedge funds buy next: Tencent Trip.com 🧠 Buffett Thinking Applied Buffett doesn?t just buy cheap ? he buys: Strong moat Long-term growth High return on capital 👉 Tencent = ecosystem moat 👉 Trip.com = travel monopoly + rebound play 🔹 Why not buy them first? Because during crisis: Earnings uncertain Regulation/geopolitics risk high Demand weak (especially travel) 👉 Buffett avoids uncertainty: ?It?s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price ? but only when you understand the risks.? 🔹 Features (Tech Phase) Tencent Gaming + payments + ecosystem Trip.com Travel recovery leverage 🔹 Touchpoints Consumer spending returns Digital economy rebounds Travel demand explodes post-crisis ✅ Gain Points High growth rebound Multiple expansion (valuation rerates) ❌ Pain Points Volatility Policy/geopolitical risks ⚠ ️ Challenge Timing too early = big drawdowns 🛠 ️ Buffett Solution ?Wait for the pitch you understand.? 👉 He would only buy AFTER: Macro stabilizes Earnings visibility improves 🔄 4. The Capital Flow Sequence (VERY IMPORTANT) Step-by-step: Fear phase Sell everything Raise cash Entry phase Buy banks (e.g. United Overseas Bank) 👉 Safe, cash-generating Confirmation phase Banks stabilize → system is safe Risk-on phase Rotate into Tencent Trip.com 🧭 5. Why This Strategy Works Because it aligns with Buffett?s 3 hidden rules: Rule 1: Survival first ?You only have to get rich once.? → Banks protect capital Rule 2: Circle of competence → Banks = predictable → Tech = buy later when clearer Rule 3: Margin of safety → Crisis creates discounts → But only buy when downside is limited 🔥 Final Insight (What Most People Miss) Retail investors: Chase growth first Panic when volatility hits Smart money + Buffett: Buy stability first Then buy growth later 🧠 Simple Mental Model Think like this: 🏦 Banks = foundation of the house 📱 Tech = top floor growth 👉 You don?t build the top floor first. |
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JurongW
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 03:08
Yells: "Earnings give weight, Chart give wings" |
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There is another song which I also like, not sure if I sent to you previously 《 化 凡 》 - 楊 子 熙 【 仙 逆 】 插 曲 ｜ Renegade Immortal EP58 OST「 古 風 」 「 燃 」 （ cc動 態 歌 詞 ） |
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JurongW
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 03:04
Yells: "Earnings give weight, Chart give wings" |
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The chinese language is rather chim, so MS-copilot assisted with the translation. 🎵 《 何 惜 一 戰 》 &mdash Full Lyrics (Selected Lines)
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JurongW
Elite |
18-Mar-2026 02:47
Yells: "Earnings give weight, Chart give wings" |
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Dear Chartiskao, This song very shiok, feel pump up after listening. What do u think ? ENG SUB 動 畫 【 仙 逆 】 王 林 問 鼎 插 曲 《 何 惜 一 戰 》 完 整 版 - 張 申 騁 「 燃 」 ｜ Renegade Immortal OST (EP 121 ED) |
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chartiskao
Elite |
17-Mar-2026 22:41
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Trump will make the world respect US https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_tMFytfkkc
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chartiskao
Elite |
17-Mar-2026 22:37
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YvAYIJSSZY& list=RD7YvAYIJSSZY& start_radio=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjxT-b7k_bs
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chartiskao
Elite |
17-Mar-2026 22:35
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKGWcL83o8I
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