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SIA
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SIA revived
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TigerPlay
Master |
03-Aug-2021 10:03
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Obviously the TP of 4.85 is way off, now oredy at 4.96 4.97 | ||||
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
03-Aug-2021 09:24
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UOB upgrades SIA to ' hold' with higher TP of $4.85UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith has upgraded his call on Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " hold" from " sell" previously after the airline posted y-o-y narrower losses of $409 million for the 1QFY2022 ended June.The airline, which also registered q-o-q narrower losses by 38% is deemed as a " key positive" to Ajith, but remains " in line with [his] expectations" . " Adjusted book value per share, assuming full conversion of mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) and other convertible bonds, stood at $3.39, down from S$3.60 as at end FY2021," he writes in an Aug 2 report. In its results release, SIA posted a $171 million q-o-q decrease in its operating loss, excluding fuel hedges and mark-to-market charges. This compares to the airline' s guidance that there was a cash burn of about $100 million to $150 million per month in February. " Thus we estimate that SIA' s cash burn would have narrowed down by between 33-50% monthly," notes the analyst. To this end, Ajith has increased his target price estimate to $4.85 from $4.15 previously. " In modelling SIA, we have factored in $6.2 billion in mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) as shareholders equity, but have excluded that in our valuation. We raise our fair value price-to-book (P/B) valuation multiple to 1.15 times FY2022 and FY2023' s average vs 1.0 times previously. The change in valuation multiple is to factor in improved sentiment towards border reopening over the next quarters," he writes in an Aug 2 report. That said, he does not see many changes in the airline' s circumstances yet. " Very little has changed following the release of [SIA' s] full-year results. There is not much optimism on borders reopening, but the slower pace of vaccination rates at other Asian cities, effectively means that SIA has to add capacity carefully, factoring in both inbound and outbound demand as well as the potential for incremental bellyhold cargo revenue on such flights," he notes. The airline is, overall, less likely to add capacity to Southeast Asia given its slow vaccination rates. " For 2QFY2022, SIA expects to add 33% of pre-pandemic capacity, which is at a similar level to that of 1QFY2022. SIA also stated that it has the means to add 50-60% of pre-pandemic capacity given that crew are on standby," he says. The airline' s pax yields, which remain elevated, are likely to normalise in the coming quarters. Cargo yields, on the other hand, are likely to remain firm in the FY2022 due to a shortage in bellyhold capacity. Strong PMI and sea port congestions would be used to fund capex, he says. On the lower pax yields, Ajith has raised his loss assumptions for the FY2022 by 46%. A gradual relaxation of travel restrictions, he says, is an upside factor to the airline' s shares. Shares in SIA closed 11 cents lower or 2.2% down at $4.99 on Aug 2, or 0.7 times P/B, according to UOB Kay Hian' s estimates. |
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RL16EGG
Veteran |
02-Aug-2021 13:45
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thanks for the input. i watch first 
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since1990
Member |
02-Aug-2021 12:15
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4.60 | ||||
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investor999
Elite |
02-Aug-2021 11:55
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Thanks for your confidence in me. As I mentioned to you before, the short sellers never left SIA alone. In their mind $5 is too expensive. Now the banks are willing to " chut " $4.90 . It is like bargaining So you know how buy and sell bargaining works? | ||||
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RL16EGG
Veteran |
02-Aug-2021 11:19
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same thing. where is investor99, adrianising.... very quiet
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TigerPlay
Master |
02-Aug-2021 10:25
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so far, i noticed the pattern like hit 5.20 then slowly slowly and very slowly hit 4.80 b4 rebounce back. Now i oso itchy, tot below 5 is good, but now maybe follow u wait till 4.90 then nibble a little at a time till 4.80
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RL16EGG
Veteran |
02-Aug-2021 10:15
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4.9 can buy bo ? i would to nibble some. 4.8 is great but tough.
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f16force
Senior |
02-Aug-2021 09:34
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Was pushed up before result, now consolidating .....
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TigerPlay
Master |
02-Aug-2021 09:26
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why is sia falling, should be good now right, travel on the cart, dun tell me another variant spotted? | ||||
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
31-Jul-2021 00:32
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Analysts warming up to SIA on narrowing loss in 1Q22Analysts are only just beginning to warm up to Singapore Airlines' (SIA) turnaround, following its lowest quarterly loss in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) since the pandemic began.On July 29, SIA reported net losses of $409 million for 1QFY2022 ended June 30. This is a 63.6%, or $714 million, improvement from the $1.1 billion loss it had posted the year before. In a July 28 note, DBS Group Research analysts Paul Yong and Jason Sum are upgrading SIA from " fully valued" to " hold" , with a raised target price of $4.90 from $3.60 previously. The new target price represents a 4% downside. While the recovery path remains uncertain, SIA has the balance sheet to wait it out, write Yong and Sum. The issuance of $6.2 billion mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs) ensures SIA remains financially sound and in a strong position to recover, say Yong and Sum. " The strong show of support from Temasek, which took up some 95% of the MCBs, boosts SIA' s pro-forma cash balance to approximately $14 billion, providing it with a firm buffer to navigate through the current crisis and fund the capital expenditure for its fleet renewal program." That said, the MCBs could also be highly dilutive, regardless if they are eventually redeemed or converted. A total of $9.7 billion of MCBs are now in issue, with a yield to call of 4% in the first four years and up to 6% in years eight to 10, meaning that the MCBs are highly dilutive whether they are redeemed or converted. " We believe SIA would look to redeem most, if not all, of these MCBs as soon as demand recovers and stabilises," write Yong and Sum. Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB analyst Raymond Yap is maintaining his " add" call on the airline, with a lowered target price of $5.54 from $5.64 previously. The new target price represents a 7.0% upside. " We expect international travel to resume gradually from late-2021F before becoming more meaningful by mid-2022F," writes Yap in a July 30 note. SIA said it had already deployed 28% of its pre-Covid-19 passenger available seat kilometres (ASK) capacity as at June 30, and forecasts its passenger ASK capacity to rise to 50% by Sept 30. The restoration of ASK capacity is net positive for the group, as it will be able to generate more freight income from the passenger planes' bellyhold cargo capacity. SIA noted that cargo demand and yields remain robust due to the shortfall in airfreight capacity as international air passenger networks have not been significantly restored. Even though passenger load factors will likely remain low, SIA said previously that it expects to be able to recover the variable costs from the flights from cargo revenues, among others. Higher oil prices are not likely to be of consequence to SIA in the next few quarters, writes Yap, as it had committed to a large hedge book pre-Covid-19 and is likely to be almost fully hedged for its currently small volume of fuel consumed. SIA' s debt-to-equity ratio stood at a manageable 0.67 times as at June 30, with gross cash balance of $13.7 billion almost as much as its gross debt balance of $15.1 billion. SIA has access to $2.1 billion of undrawn credit lines and additional headroom of $6 billion for sale and leaseback transactions of various aircraft. " As such, SIA is well positioned to be a competitive winner in the post-pandemic world," says Yap. As at 3.24pm, shares in SIA are trading flat at $5.18. |
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TradeExpert
Veteran |
30-Jul-2021 22:40
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Agree Even if the funds short the counter, it will have to trend with extreme caution and be very quick to cover position after shorting it. Now it' s a buy in on dips below $4.9 and on weakness. Ah Gong orTH will save SIA at all cost and will not let it sink. If SIA sink, singapore economy will sink as well. Have to hold for long term to see it rebound to at least $6. A matter of timing.
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TradeExpert
Veteran |
30-Jul-2021 22:33
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Lolxx..... Shh.... Just keep your mouth shut!... 
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y2jchris
Veteran |
30-Jul-2021 16:18
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its a long term war man Even if all airline stock global buy.. now who have oil price hedge advantage makes a big diff.. Anyone can just throw price to cover the payment of aircraft... Its hard to tell who will win the war leh.
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PorkLegoGuy999
Member |
30-Jul-2021 16:05
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my mouth was shut all the time... i typed it out... do you open your mouth all the time while u' re typing? 
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TradeExpert
Veteran |
30-Jul-2021 15:43
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Aiyo.... If price drop, look at the chart and fundamentals to buy in on weakness lor. If price go up, do profit taking. And if you are dare devil, you can just short it and cover position subsequently. Before you open your mouth, make sure you know what you are talking about. Otherwise, it' s better that you keep your mouth shut. 
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PorkLegoGuy999
Member |
30-Jul-2021 13:07
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did i say anything on $6 today? i said " everytime when there is a price drop" ...
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TA_Expert
Supreme |
30-Jul-2021 12:37
Yells: "The World has changed" |
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SIA losses well absorbed by the market. No fund dare to short against TH. They know that they can' t win TH who has a war chest of more than 1 trillion. So when the govt made a statement last year, all funds know that they cannot short the stock. Airline stocks are a buy now globally. |
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TradeExpert
Veteran |
30-Jul-2021 12:33
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Lolxx wonder who talk nonsense... Haha... Be realistic la. To have a counter to go to $6 today from $5.1x, it' s almost 16% increase within a day. SGX will have flag for queries. US Stock increasement at most is approx 5% a day. Least to say Sg stock counter can hit approx 5% increase within a day. Usually it' s within 3% increasement. Facts, FIgures and Charts says it all. Unless you live in caves...
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Singpost
Master |
30-Jul-2021 12:22
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how SIA price has to rise to recover losess.?
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