Back

Latest Forum Topics / Japfa

Post Reply

Japfa IPO 15 August Post Reply Rate topic
Ray12888 Veteran	13-Apr-2016 19:56        Ray12888 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A very strong stock.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	13-Apr-2016 14:04        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last:0.62      Vol:684k        +0.015 reaching target soon 66.5c  dyodd gd luck ozone2002      ( Date: 04-Mar-2016 10:36) Posted: Last:0.535     Vol:1773k     +0.005            Moving slowly but surely MY TP is book value of 66.5c gd luck dyodd ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Mar-2016 15:15) Posted:   Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01            good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd BUY Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39) Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside) Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery Where we differ: No comparison available Growth drivers intact 4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations of US$44m Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time, the group continued to deliver steady contribution from poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m (-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q). Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA (excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses) CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income. Valuation: Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY rating for the counter is reiterated. Key Risks to Our View: Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair value, and vice versa.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Msport Elite	12-Apr-2016 11:21        Msport About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	moving...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Msport Elite	12-Apr-2016 10:53        Msport About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Japfa Ltd [JAP SP, TP S$0.90] DBSV 11 April 2016   Japfa' s shares rallied after the company posted a 4Q15 net profit of US$34m that was substantially ahead of the US$14.5m that was expected.   Looking forward, we believe the growth drivers are still intact and forecast a 23% EBITDA CAGR over the next three years &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes as Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. While we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by a 6% CAGR over the same period, given the curbs on DOC capacity, we think that demand should continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income.   We think that the market is currently ignoring value contributions from Dairy and its regional Animal Protein subsidiaries, which continue to deliver consistent growth.  Thus, we reiterate our BUY call with an SOP-based target price of  S$0.90.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	21-Mar-2016 23:11        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last:0.595      Vol:809k        -0.015 nearing book value.. Gd luck DYODD  ozone2002      ( Date: 14-Mar-2016 18:40) Posted: Last:0.565      Vol:2355k        +0.01 reaching Book value soon
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
edmunk Member	18-Mar-2016 10:00        edmunk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Any news if there would be dividend for this stock?  Was told in the FY 2015 report that it will be announced during AGM.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Ray12888 Veteran	14-Mar-2016 20:18        Ray12888 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A nice trendy stock.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	14-Mar-2016 18:40        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last:0.565      Vol:2355k        +0.01 reaching Book value soon
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	04-Mar-2016 10:36        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last:0.535     Vol:1773k     +0.005            Moving slowly but surely MY TP is book value of 66.5c gd luck dyodd ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Mar-2016 15:15) Posted:   Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01            good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd BUY Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39) Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside) Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery Where we differ: No comparison available Growth drivers intact 4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations of US$44m Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time, the group continued to deliver steady contribution from poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m (-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q). Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA (excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses) CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income. Valuation: Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY rating for the counter is reiterated. Key Risks to Our View: Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair value, and vice versa. ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
edmunk Member	03-Mar-2016 09:58        edmunk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	IMO, pennies tend to be irrational and subjected to BB movements usually. Not too sure if I wanna go all fundamentals on this particular stock.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
victortan Elite	02-Mar-2016 16:52        victortan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	analyst are suck, nvr believe them, a analyst from nextinsight say that resource prima tg px 29c, when it was something trading at 15c, today it is just 4c. u trust them with a spinch of salt. They always behind the curve and look backward when the mkt is driving forwrd. u drivr car look back dont see front, and see what happen?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	02-Mar-2016 15:15        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01            good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd BUY Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39) Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside) Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery Where we differ: No comparison available Growth drivers intact 4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations of US$44m Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time, the group continued to deliver steady contribution from poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m (-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q). Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA (excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses) CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income. Valuation: Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY rating for the counter is reiterated. Key Risks to Our View: Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair value, and vice versa. ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
edmunk Member	29-Feb-2016 16:56        edmunk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For partial profits now.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
gsasgx Member	07-Jan-2016 08:55        gsasgx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	dont believe what dbs v recommends.... they projected .90... above ipo price.  i doubt so given it being overpriced from the start... spore1      ( Date: 06-Jan-2016 23:11) Posted: Japfa may cont to head further North. http://sporeshare.blog   spot.sg/2016/01/japfa.html
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
spore1 Supreme	06-Jan-2016 23:11        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Japfa may cont to head further North. http://sporeshare.blog   spot.sg/2016/01/japfa.html
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Ray12888 Veteran	03-Dec-2015 23:43        Ray12888 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Technically, this stock looks bullish I will put it in my watchlist to look for an entry signal.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
gsasgx Member	03-Dec-2015 13:38        gsasgx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	mgmt not so great.... high cost of operation ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	03-Dec-2015 13:28        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
ozone2002 Supreme	03-Dec-2015 13:25        ozone2002 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Japfa at 50c vs book value of 66.5c FY16. Still some upside  Gd luck DYODD
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
gsasgx Member	02-Dec-2015 10:45        gsasgx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	another dead one.... spore1      ( Date: 18-Nov-2015 12:21) Posted: Japfa rally.Top form going up spore1      ( Date: 03-Nov-2015 21:27) Posted: It could be BB's are pushing up the price.Tdy vol is high may cont to move up to test 50 cents
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   3521-3540 of 3685   Older>   Last