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Starhub
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Belteshazzar
Master |
27-Mar-2019 09:07
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Again testing 150, dun look good | ||
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runaway
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26-Mar-2019 16:03
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You talk so much and yet you cant deliver $1.4X this week. I am still waiting, when? I think you don&rsquo t know how to answer. Let me give you another chance to redeem yourself. How about next week? |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
26-Mar-2019 15:06
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 Analysts Say > Research Reports StarHub - CGS-CIMB Research 2019-03-25: Not Time To Look Up At The Stars Yet  StarHub - Not Time To Look Up At The Stars Yet StarHub has revised packages & launched aggressive offers since Dec 2018. We are now factoring in larger mobile ARPU erosion and device subsidies. Maintain HOLD with an 18% lower target price of S$1.65. More Aggressive Offers From StarHub As Competition Intensifies In Dec 2018, StarHub (SGX:CC3) launched its new #hellochange postpaid device-bundled and SIM-only plans that contain bigger base data quotas, as well as substantial amounts of free data (valid for 12-24 months). In Feb 2019, StarHub came out with 10GB/50GB (FUP) data add-on offers for S$10/20 per month. In addition, we noted a significant 59% increase in subsidies for the iPhone XR (64GB) for its S$75/month postpaid plan vs. comparably-priced plans in Jun 2018 (iPhone 8, 64GB). Its competitors have done the same, in view of TPG?s commercial launch in 2H19F. Factoring In Larger ARPU Erosion & Device Subsidies In FY19-20F We are now factoring in a 12.5% p.a. erosion in StarHub?s postpaid base ARPU (ex-roaming) in FY19-20F (previous: -10% p.a.). We also raise our device subsidy estimates for FY19-21F, before assuming a gradual decline from FY22F onwards. On the positive side, we now project that StarHub would pay for the 700MHz spectrum in 2H20F and for amortisation to start in FY21F, one year later than our original estimate, due to delays in analogue switch-off in Indonesia (affects 700MHz usage in neighbouring countries). Earnings And Dividend Outlook Post-revision, we forecast StarHub?s core EPS to decline by 31.7%/37.5% y-o-y in FY19/ 20F, before rising slightly by 1.7% in FY21F as market competition starts to stabilise. We keep to a DPS of 9 Scts for FY19F, as per StarHub?s guidance. Based on an 80% payout ratio, our DPS estimates drop to 4.2/4.3 Scts in FY20/21F. We project net debt/EBITDA to rise from 1.5x at end-FY18 to a peak of 2.7x at end-FY21F, before easing in FY22F.  Key Risk Is Sizeable Mobile ARPU Erosion The key downside risk for StarHub is greater-than-expected mobile ARPU erosion. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that if mobile ARPU contracts by 15% p.a. in FY19-20F, our core EPS estimates would fall by 68.1% over FY18-21F (vs. our base case of -56.6%) and our Target Price would be 10.9% lower. If mobile ARPU contracts by 10% p.a. instead, our core EPS estimates would fall by a lesser 44.8% and our Target Price would be 11.5% higher. Maintain HOLD Target Price Lowered 18% To S$1.65 The impact of the attractive promotions and increased device subsidies may start to show progressively in 1Q-4Q19F, in our view. This, coupled with TPG?s commercial launch in 2H19F, leads us to think investor sentiment on StarHub will stay weak. Our revised DCF-based fair value is S$1.84. However, given the expected sharp drop in FY19-20F core EPS, we believe the stock lacks strong re-rating catalysts. Hence, we apply a 10% to our DCF-based fair value to arrive at a target price of S$1.65. FOONG Choong Chen CFA https://research.itradecimb.com/ |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 13:55
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4-corner fight ? What a joke! All the three established Telcos have millions of customers. When is TPG reaching its first 100,000 customers? |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 13:49
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You dont understand a simple sentence. You said this week Starhub would trade at $1.4X. It didnt happen. I said YanLord would report poorer results next Q, and a possible loss for 2019. Do you understand when is next Q? |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 13:20
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You cant tell the difference between one week and next Q? |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 13:08
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You talked big about $1.4X this week. Pls make it happen. You have two more days to restore your credibility. |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 12:43
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You talked big and talked down of Starhub. Despite the Dow 400 pt fall, it stays steady. What happened to your $1.4X? |
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lukewong82
Master |
26-Mar-2019 12:25
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U have to admire the guy' s determination to defend starhub. Anyway, I will only take an interest in starhub if the share price falls below $1.20 which is totally possible if the next results is so bad that they have to cut the dividends again (who knows).. becos they say they declare 80% of the profits for dividend, so if 80% of profits dip below the 9cents level, they have no choice to cut again. Then we have to monitor how TPG is doing. IF the reviews for TPG is very good and there is a high chance most users will port their lines over to TPG.. then really starhub share price will really tank below $1 possible. BUT below $1, I bet they will take Starhub private... So maybe a good price range to accumulate would be $1 to $1.20 But of course if they can turn around their profits and declare higher profits and say they are on the road to recovery , then perhaps share price will rise to $1.80.. But I still bet that their business is on the declining trend unless TPG co+cked up and we see many complains about TPG...But so far TPG review is quite ok..
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Belteshazzar
Master |
26-Mar-2019 12:22
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I thought u r talking about future right issue 1:1at $1.2 u get $2.1b also. Ha ha ha
Why u look at reserves?
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 12:08
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Pls read the last full-year financial statements. B/L sheet carries a $2.1 billion reserves. Reserves = Retained earnings |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
26-Mar-2019 11:47
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Pls enlighten me on the 2.1b reserves
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lukewong82
Master |
26-Mar-2019 11:43
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Paying more dividend when a company has EXCESS cash is wrong.. ok .. good for u then. Cheers
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 10:58
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You asked a question- A or B? My answer - B. Share buy-back is buying a valuable asset undervalued by the market. A is wrong. Paying more dividend does not help to prop up the share price. As a shrewd investor, you spot value, and you make $ when buying, as the share will go up when the true value reveals. |
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 10:06
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Net debt, negative cash flow, less dividend... what else? You did not answer my questions? Dividend payout has Nothing to do with excess cash. It is pegged to the profit of the year. Share buy-back must satisfy two criteria: 1. The company Knows that its share is undervalued. 2. The company has excess cash for share buy-back. Cash is used for business operations as a priority. Any excess can be used for share buy-back, bonus payout.... that is why it is called excess cash. |
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lukewong82
Master |
26-Mar-2019 09:54
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I' m not here to argue with u or what. Is good that we engage in useful discussion. If starhub has excess cash, I would want to question the management of starhub why they cut dividends when they have excess cash. The excess cash should be returned to shareholders instead using to conduct share buyback which does not help the share price. AND precisely it is due to the cut in dividends that cause the share price to drop. U ask urself if u are a starhub shareholder: A) If they have excess cash, they should not have cut dividends and the share price would not have dropped and stayed at around $1.80 - $2. The excess cash should be used to increase the dividends instead which will then make the share price flying up. B) If they have excess cash, they go and cut dividends causing the share price to tank and then later use the excess cash to conduct share buyback which is useless anyway as can seen with share buyback at $1.60 recently, but the share price continued to drop instead. Which one u prefer if starhub has EXCESS cash? A or B ?
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lukewong82
Master |
26-Mar-2019 09:41
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CASH ON HAND = cash you have in ur account and may be needed to par debts and for daily operation. If the cash used for ur operation is more than the revenue, it results in negative cash flow which means cash out cannot catch up with cash in. Starhub is having negative cash flow meaning the cash that goes out cannot match the cash that comes in, in this case, there is no excess cash. That s why they are cutting dividends to preserve cash for daily operation and paring down of debts which are more essential. Things like share buyback is " luxury" items. If the cash out is lesser than cash in(revenue), you will generate positive cash flow , in this case it means u have EXCESS cash to spare. In this case the EXCESS cash is a luxury which may be used to perform share buyback (luxury item) on top of daily operation and paring down debts. U mentioned Starhub has EXCESS cash to conduct share buyback MAY mislead some investors into thinking Starhub has very strong footing. If Starhub has EXCESS cash as what u implied, they wun be cutting dividends so drastically and the share price would not tank. Imagine investors asking why starhub got excess cash and still cut dividends?
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lukewong82
Master |
26-Mar-2019 09:33
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Starhub uses CASH ON HAND to conduct share buyback. They do not have EXCESS CASH becos they are generating negative cashflow and they are burning cash, thats why they cut their dividend payout drastically recently. They are perserving their CASH ON HAND in order to par down debts which is a good thing. If they have EXCESS CASH, they would have increased dividend instead. It would be more useful to par down debts using their CASH ON HAND instead of wasting their CASH ON HAND conducting share buyback as the buyback has little impact on share price as can be seen with the share price hovering at multiyears low of $1.50 even after several buybacks recently.
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runaway
Senior |
26-Mar-2019 05:44
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Thank you for agreeing that Starhub has the cash on hand/excess cash to do share buy-back. You quoted financial numbers and projected Starhub as poor and with no money, net debt, negative cash flow... Mind you, Starhub is, and has been a profitable company. It made more than $200 mil last year, and $1.45 Billion in the last 5 years combined, with $2.1 Billion of Reserves. Pls define, in the context of listed company: 1. Cash on hand 2. Excess cash Pls explain the difference, and pls do not confuse cash with net debt, negative cash flow.... |
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lukewong82
Master |
25-Mar-2019 23:45
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I agree with u that Starhub has the ability to conduct share buyback because it has CASH ON HAND. BUT Starhub does NOT have EXCESS CASH. EXCESS CASH would mean they have positive cash flow already, excess cash after deducting financial expenses operating expenses etc.. but they are having Negative cash flow means they are bleeding cash so they dun have excess cash and they are heavily in debt. What they have is CASH ON HAND. By saying Starhub has excess cash, you are basically saying starhub is a cash rich company which is misleading. If they have excess cash, they wun be cutting dividends and getting into the trouble they are in now. Anyway no point debating this, I think many investors already know that Starhub is now conserving cash that' s why it is cutting the dividends. If Starhub has EXCESS cash as u claim, they would be happy to continue to give the 16 cents dividends to shareholders.
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