| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
04-Feb-2015 12:01
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http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/03/with-strong-share-price-gains-since-oil-prices-collapsed-can-lower-oil-prices-really-save-this-company/ With the price of oil having fallen by more than 60% from its 2014-peak, companies that see oil-derived fuel as a big component of their operating costs have seen their share prices soar (the airlines are a great example). Shipping outfit Neptune Orient Lines Ltd (SGX: N03) also seems &ndash at first glance &ndash to be a beneficiary of lower oil prices. In 2013, Neptune Orient Lines had spent approximately US$1.50 billion on bunker costs (bunker is a type of fuel typically used by vessels) that&rsquo s around 17% of the company&rsquo s revenue of US$8.83 billion for that year. The market also seems to think that lower oil prices will be a boon for Neptune Orient Lines given that its impressive 18% gain in share price over the last three months coincides with the sharp decline in the price of oil. But, there are reasons to believe that any potential advantages Neptune Orient Lines can enjoy from lower fuel costs would be temporary at best. The situation is perhaps best explained by drawing an analogy between the shipping firm and Singapore Airlines Ltd (SGX: C6L). Both companies are in the transport business (though the clientele&rsquo s certainly different) and both belong to industries with poor business economics where intense price-competition is the norm. In the case of Singapore Airlines, cheaper fuel is an industry-wide phenomena, so it&rsquo s just a matter of time before any cost-savings are actually passed down to customers instead of being enjoyed by the company. In fact, there are already signs of this dynamic happening in the airline industry. There&rsquo s no reason to believe all these won&rsquo t happen to the shipping industry too. But whereas Singapore Airlines has a strong balance sheet and is considered a really well-run airline, Neptune Orient Lines is laden with debt. The shipping outfit&rsquo s total debt to equity ratio is really high at 259%, and its EBITDA to interest coverage ratio (a measure of how easily a company can service its loans) is only at 1. The latter figure shows how tight Neptune Orient Lines is with regards to its cash flow. The company really ought to try and make use of any extra breathing space it has &ndash courtesy of lower fuel costs &ndash to double-up its efforts to turn itself around. Foolish Summary There are many challenges for Neptune Orient Lines to overcome given its dreadful business performance over the past few years. For instance, it&rsquo s been close to six years since the financial crisis&rsquo worst days ended in 2009, but the shipping outfit has yet to recover, clocking losses in most years since then. Early last year, the company even announced that it might be placed on a watchlist maintained by the Singapore Exchange after suffering three years of consecutive losses the firm&rsquo s streak of annual-losses looks set to continue after it had clocked US$175 million in losses for the first nine months of 2014. Oil&rsquo s price declines are just a short-term blessing for Neptune Orient Lines. The company still needs to address many fundamental issues with its business such as its highly-geared balance sheet and its cost-inefficiencies in relation to its peers. For more investing analyses and important updates about the stock market, sign up to The Motley Fool Singapore' s free weekly investing newsletter, Take Stock Singapore. Written by David Kuo, it can help you grow your wealth in the years ahead. |
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
04-Feb-2015 05:42
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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The Official Battle (Red Cliff/ Chibi) between NOL (Sun Quan & Liu Bei) & Samudera (CaoCao) had begun!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToMwOSXKp14&index=9&list=FLIGZIWveB2xf_-PhUBfo0Mg |
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
04-Feb-2015 04:58
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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ANNOUCEMENT:
3 Jan Closing- NOL@ $0.99, Cosco@ $0.52 & Samudera shipping@ $0.295. ● From today onward, I will give view on NOL & Samudera Shipping. Cosco, with some value, will be excluded in my battle (shipping) report. |
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
04-Feb-2015 04:52
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Time do not lie. A sleeping dragon (NOL) underneath the waves waiting to be awaken.
In term of its assets & market real value, NOL is the leader of container shipping stock in SGX. |
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 19:53
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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We need to know that NOL is better than Samudera Shipping in any ways. Samudera is ranked far too behind, to even talk about merger LOL | ||||
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 14:43
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http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/499010-drewry-shipping-alliances-mean-greater-choice-lower-freight-rates http://www.sinoshipnews.com/News/Evergreen-charters-11-ultra-large-containerships/3w3c3581.html 4 Alliances generally were formed. 1) 2M - formed by top 2 Maersk Line and MSC 2) O3 - formed by no. 3 and another 2 fast growing asian companies CMA CGM, United Shipping Co., and China Container Shipping Line 3) G6 - formed by No.4 Hapag Lloyd, APL(NOL), Hyundai Merchant Marine, Mitsui, Nippon, OOCL 4) CKYH plus E - Formed by no.5 Evergreen plus China&rsquo s Cosco Taiwan&rsquo s Yang Ming, Japan&rsquo s K Line and South Korea&rsquo s Hanjin. http://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ Based on the latest container shipping, if considered the future delivered container vessels which are high efficient and larger container vessels. G6 will drop to no. 4 and become the alliance with lowest combined capacities and older fleet. So sad, but this is fact that NOL is at G6 and their situation is at worst. All the companies forming as alliances are generally operating on the main international routes. NOL supporter may say, they are other container shipping companies which are not forming the alliances, but in fact, they are not competing on the same main international routes. Good luck to holders. Coming quarter result is very important to your investment. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 14:22
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http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2015/02/02/427966/Evergreen-Group.htm http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/149873-maersk-line-considering-10-new-mega-boxships-for-15-billion Order & order, never stop even the market is so over capacity. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 14:05
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Some positive news for you to look forward the result released. The one not doing well is MOL and unfortunately she is NOL good friend who NOL chartered 5 new built vessel to her. Can NOL do well like others or sink together with MOL. http://info.chineseshipping.com.cn/eninfo/Shipping/201502/t20150202_1247992.shtml http://info.chineseshipping.com.cn/eninfo/Shipping/201502/t20150202_1247986.shtml http://info.chineseshipping.com.cn/eninfo/Shipping/201502/t20150202_1247983.shtml
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Feb-2015 11:32
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no choice....i like to gamble...hahaha.. i also waiting for judgment day at 13 Feb 2015. Let' s see how it turn out. Another point to consider, NOL sales is demoninated in USD, so stronger USD also good for NOL. Let' s just keep our fingers cross...:-).
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 11:03
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Sell on news? I believe this round up is due to foreign buying force. DBS come in to correct and update their target price with the sales of APL logistic in the future. Not only, NOL is facing the sell down, other container shipping lines also face the same sell down recently. BDI is at record low, this imply raw material market is very bad which may imply the worsen situation of product market in next 6 month. You can bet on it. But i will wait for the result to see if NOL can breakeven in this coming quarter. Present price is not attractive, I don' t want my money to be stuck just for a potential 10% rally but 20% or more dropping risk. Good luck bro.
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ascend88
Master |
02-Feb-2015 10:46
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Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy profit from folly rather than participate in it. |
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ascend88
Master |
02-Feb-2015 10:43
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wise indeed....
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Feb-2015 10:40
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this a common con trick by analyst one...normally after analyst issue BUY, the price will drop/correct so thy can collect at cheaper price. dun lose heart, NOl report coming in before CNY...let' s see, i will topup at 0.96
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KAMAL0883
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 10:25
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1.05 not really a bad price to buy if you born before 1980 ..... |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 10:17
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This is the fact which has been last for years. But when NOL went out, all holders seem like blind and go to buy above 1.05, even DBS has given 1.10 TP including the sales of APL Logistic.
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Feb-2015 10:11
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0.96 coming |
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KAMAL0883
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 10:09
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very hopeless counter...... those Management not capable at all |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Feb-2015 09:40
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Lol....
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Feb-2015 08:38
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5million married deal today.... |
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nqing87
Supreme |
01-Feb-2015 21:51
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Dividend record FYI.. FY2009: 0 cents FY2010: SGD 4.6 cents FY2011: 0 cents FY2012: 0 cents FY2013: 0 cents FY2014: FY results reporting on around feb 13.. 3 year consecutive losses from 2011 to 2013..
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