| Latest Forum Topics / ComfortDelGro Last:1.29 -- |
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Medtecs
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alexchew
Master |
24-Oct-2017 11:32
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i think the key management will not jeapordise their career. They will just continue to do what they have always been doing, stick their heads in the ground, and continue to get fat salary. Afterall, those at the top, will be looking for retirement soon. This mess, will be a fight for the younger generations. The problem with this company, will be always two parts: 1. Old management that do not want to change and have too much to lose if they try to change (including, admitting they are already obsolete and no longer right for the job in today' s context) .They wont be able to compete against anyone unless they try to revamp its attitude to environment, including how it treats it' s " taxi uncles" . I heard when uber/grab joins, the management only threaten them by saying, you can' t use the app.. What is done for them to prevent grab/uber to take away the business? 2. Owners do not want to throw in more cash into this business anymore. A look at vicom for over the past few years results, the share price has been coming down. The business is going down yearly, but staff cost keeps going up. Little is spent on capex to improve on it' s revenue per employee and efficiencies. The market share is going down as more vehicles deregister.. What is comfort doing to this business that is by default, a cashcow? Simple study of how it runs this simple business, will tell you, they are not able to take up the bigger challenge in the face of mammoths such as grab and uber. A cut of the taxi rental rates and simplification of the taxi fares (especially booking fees + all these weird surcharges) are necessary to move forward as a first step. Until this happen, do not expect any recovery in taxi business.
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seba240698
Senior |
24-Oct-2017 10:52
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Thanks for the info, so if CDG scrap all its idle taxis, it will not lost money.
Let's hope CDG does the right thing.
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kelvintan84
Veteran |
24-Oct-2017 09:51
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It takes 7 hired drivers to breakeven 1 idle taxi.
Comfort has approximately 15k cars. Current idling rate at 9.1% (based on market avg, but we all know comfort definitely has ALOT more idling cabs) is 1365 cars. If the idling count break 1875, the taxi business will lose money. Whether comfort will react and stay nibble is everyone's guess.. But looking at their reaction to disruption, I would think they are dinosaurs.
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seba240698
Senior |
24-Oct-2017 09:36
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I could be simplistic in my thinking but how to lose money in taxi business? It is just like I buy a car and lease it out for an income, or buy a house and rent it out. If no hirer I just scrape my car and get back parf and COE. | ||||
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kelvintan84
Veteran |
24-Oct-2017 09:21
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I don't think investors are fool. It is true that comfort has other business that are profitable. But by giving the taxi business zero value is, in my opinion optimistic. We have seen how slow Comfort management react to disruption. I am of the opinion that the worse case is not the taxi business reaching zero value, but that the taxi business make loses, and management still clinch on to it, refusing to react.
1.92 to account for taxi business zero value 1.68 for taxi business to record first loss. 2.28 for cooperation with uber to take place (and subsequent fall back to 2.1 as investors wait for the effect of the cooperation)
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 21:47
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Sir, i have read report that $1.60 consist of other busineese in CDG eg Publuc Transport therefore it will not too low. Dont worry as long as u got holding power.
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Observers
Elite |
23-Oct-2017 21:28
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1& v=1ATAwLt1AkM
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Observers
Elite |
23-Oct-2017 21:25
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Still think driverless is years away? Audi driverless tested by our very own local celebrities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1& v=1ATAwLt1AkM |
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chiachiawee
Elite |
23-Oct-2017 19:13
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I think folks here are missing the point of focus. Whether grab is generating profit or incurring debt is none of the concern, and whether the drivers and riders are happy with grab is non of the business as well (but of course i enjoy the daily $5 OFF X 4), but the fact that grab keep offering discounts and grabbing most of the riders and this will certainly affect comfort' s earnings is the focus, as u can see its already priced in even since last year. Yes, Comfort does not only generate revenue from taxi, it is profitable and has other source of business. But, well, this is a forward looking market, and ppl will price in all the negative impact to the price as you can see, although its just from its taxi model. The question you have to think is well how long can grab keep offering, despite whether it makes or doesn' t, cause its all matters to comfort daily earnings. And for you as investor, take advantage of the irrationality of the other investors, or to go with the market. |
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seba240698
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 19:04
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Just in case some of you have the impression that drivers are having a good time with Grab. https://www.firstlane.com.sg/grabcar-driver-send-lawyer-letter-grab-demand-unpaid-earnings/ https://www.firstlane.com.sg/private-hire-drivers-pay-8x-taxes/ |
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seba240698
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 18:46
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Grab debts is not easy to find out but easy to guess. The most recent one S$952m. (must repay, that this is before interest) The latest previous one is S$2.7b, but I don' t consider this s debt because it is a sponsorship, don' t need to pay back. But these are not so improtant, I feel. What is important is Grab shows the whole world its busness model is just non sustainable, burning like $25m/mth (this figure you really have to correct me if I were wrong). In other words, once the loan/sponsrship stops, Grab has o close shop, there is no sign of profit in its Singapore operations (after 4 years). Now, we allnow Temasek invested in Grab, but that does not mean it will not feail, that does not mean Temasek will not expect any profit from Grab. Inthe latest sponsorship, did Teamsek took part? No (correct me if I were wrong). Waht Grab have to borrow this time now instead of sponsorship? Cannot get free money now? I don' t know.....
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seba240698
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 18:37
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Sir, just curious how do you get the number of $1.60 if alliance is unsuccessful? I read a few reports it is $1.90 if unsuccessful. |
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 18:08
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comforts end at 2.05 today. if alliance is succeessful prior to trading open tom, open p wilbe 2.35, 30 c increase. Believe me. The share prices down a lot so it will only go down o 1.60 if alliance is unsuccesful. It wil not go belo 1.6 cos supprted by 6 other businesses. | ||||
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 18:03
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i agree with you 100%. CDG is more tan taxi. There are 7 business in all. Price will not go down below $1.60 cos they are supported by other businesses.
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kerier
Veteran |
23-Oct-2017 17:38
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Question is when will the investors stop pouring money into Grab?
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rachellee
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 17:22
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People keep acting like CDG' s just about taxis and nothing else. And nobody stops to wonder just exactly how much debt Grab has, as compared to their assets. |
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 17:01
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if alliance | ||||
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 17:00
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i allianc successful, expect at least a 30 cents rise in opening at 8.57 hr n 20 seconds. If price is $2 on the eve, then the next day opening will be $2.30.
Dont worry for those who hold on to many lots ( i have 19 lots based on old method of 1 lot equal 1,000 shares) the lowest it can ge is $1.60. why i m saying this? comfortdelgo has 7 businsses. Taxi is the 2nd largest. 1st is Publiv Services such as sbs transit n ne, dt lines which are making profits. So i am not too worried. As long as got holding power n the alliance is positive, ok. just buy at $2.10 next time the starting time.
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leongyan
Master |
23-Oct-2017 16:28
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Sell into strength for those who bought below $2.. doubt it can hit 2.10
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oldcoconut
Senior |
23-Oct-2017 16:24
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The only hope if pice chiong now, is positive alliance. but so quiet & no other moves by comfortdelgo. Like a lamb for slaughter.
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