This week, Gold prices moved up and down on economic reporting and a major sell off of commodities. Weaker than expected manufacturing data released Monday put downward pressure on the dollar, causing a mild lift in the Gold price.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reflected a significant slowing of U.S. manufacturing expansion for March. The index slipped from 54.2 percent in February to 51.3 percent, surprising economists who expected levels to stay the same. The news of sluggish domestic manufacturing comes amid increasing optimism regarding the future of the U.S. economy. However, without a sustained period of positive data in industrial output and job markets, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its quantitative easing, which analysts forecast as a strong bullish factor for the long term appeal of Gold. All of Monday’s gains were quickly erased Tuesday as the financial outlook in the U.S. continued to improve. As  equities in the U.S. marketplace reach for all time highs, Precious Metals struggle for support. “There is an overwhelming sentiment that growth will remain slow and not inflationary, and that has eliminated some of the momentum investors in Gold,” SICA Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sica said. Economists now look toward Friday’s U.S. labor report for possible directional indicators.

As the week progressed, Gold continued to feel pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar. The market overlooked news coming from central bank policy meetings that saw the Bank of Japan state they will advocate further monetary easing as the European Central Bank holds steady to its policy. “We have a lot of liquidation of the Gold ETFs and the short position on the Comex for Gold remains very high, so a lot of the macro hedge fund selling have put pressure on Gold,” HSBC Metals Analyst Howard Wen said. Investors await Friday’s U.S. employment data, which will be yet another factor to show if the economy is developing at a successful rate. Gold and Silver prices rebounded significantly while stock futures dipped in the moments following the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Expectations for the number of jobs added in March were around 200,000, but the number came in at just 88,000. Earlier in the morning, UBS said in a note, “A significantly weaker-than-expected employment number could spark a powerful upside response (for Gold) given sentiment and the current level of shorts that would be forced to cover.” Though the number of new jobs was a disappointment, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent however, that is most likely due to fewer Americans looking for work. Federal Reserve policymakers have said recently that figures like the unemployment rate and the number of jobs added month-over-month are key factors in their decision on continuing monetary easing, which has historically been a boon for the Gold price.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEADLINES

Though the situation in Cyprus seemed to have been pushed to the backburner of investors’ minds,  some experts believe the crisis isn’t over yet. PIMCO CEO & Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian said, “Draconian capital controls have restored a sense of calm to a disorderly situation in Cyprus. At best, this is a short reprieve. If not followed by more fundamental (and inevitably controversial) decisions, it will just be a matter of weeks before the controls go from being a temporary solution to becoming part of an even deeper problem.” Many believe the issues in Cyprus are a microcosm of the region as a whole. The eurozone employment report was released Tuesday, showing unemployment in the region is higher than it’s ever been, and the numbers keep climbing. More than 19 million people are out of work as of February.  That is almost two million more unemployed citizens than this time last year.  “Such unacceptably high levels of unemployment are a tragedy for Europe and a signal of how serious a crisis some eurozone countries are now in,” EU Employment Commissioner Laszlo Andor said. Europe is not the only region with upsetting financial news this week. The  Bank of Japan’s announced that it would pump $1.4 trillion into asset purchases over the next two years, which is perhaps the most aggressive central bank easing policy to date. “I still think Japan's still the key story,” UBS Financial Services’ Director of Floor Operations Art Cashin said. “We're going to have to find out in a couple weeks whether that begins to move money through the Japanese economic system.” Liberal easing programs by central banks have traditionally been supportive of Gold. Many will wait to see what Japan’s stimulus program holds for world stock and Precious Metals markets.

At 5:00 pm (EDT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1582.10, Up $28.20.
• Silver, $27.37, Up $0.50.

Gold and Silver prices rebounded significantly while stock futures dipped in the moments following the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Expectations for the number of jobs added in March were around 200,000, but the number came in at just 88,000. Earlier in the morning, UBS said in a note, “A significantly weaker-than-expected employment number  could spark a powerful upside response (for Gold) given sentiment and the current level of shorts that would be forced to cover.”

Though the number of new jobs was a disappointment,  the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent however, that is most likely due to fewer Americans looking for work. Federal Reserve policymakers have said recently that figures like the unemployment rate and the number of jobs added month-over-month are key factors in their decision on continuing monetary easing, which has historically been a boon for the Gold price.

At 9:37 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,569.30, Up $15.40.
• Silver, $27.19, Up $0.32.

The Gold price dropped to a 10 month low overnight on the strength of the U.S. dollar. Similar commodities are also seeing price drops. The Silver price is at its lowest point since July and Platinum’s price is at a level not seen since August. Gold, a traditional safe haven investment, has missed the opportunity left open by the Bank of Japan’s easing steps and the recent tensions in the Korean peninsula. VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said, “At this point it's all about sentiment and if bailout talks in Cyprus, tensions in North Korea and BOJ (Bank of Japan) monetary easing have not triggered buying it is difficult that we will see a turnaround in prices any time soon.”

U.S. stock futures are taking advantage of Japan’s announcement of aggressive easing measures designed to pull the country from an extended deflationary period.  Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, said the BOJ “did the job and delivered a massive QE package – this is seen as more ‘juice’ for investors’ desire for riskier assets at the expense of safe havens.”The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England kept their respective monetary policies unchanged, as expected. This is the ninth month in a row that the ECB has left the rate where it is.

At 9:12 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,551.50, Down $3.50.
• Silver, $26.84, Down $0.06.

Precious Metals have fallen this morning after better-than-expected data out of the eurozone was released. Another factor that is weighing on Precious Metals is upcoming policy meetings in Japan and the eurozone, with investors  cautious of making big decisions  before those events. Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said, “Gold has found the support it needs but at the same has not really found the catalyst to take it out of the range we have seen for few weeks and weaker data haven't made any impact this morning as key macro events are still to come later in the week. Going forward into the second quarter, there seems to be a much better balance for Gold to react to economic data after speculative positions have been much reduced and exchange-traded products saw record outflows.”

The situation in Cyprus is still weighing heavily on investors’ minds. Though it has seemed to have been pushed to the backburner,  some experts believe the crisis isn’t over yet. PIMCO CEO & Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian said, “Draconian capital controls have restored a sense of calm to a disorderly situation in Cyprus. At best, this is a short reprieve. If not followed by more fundamental (and inevitably controversial) decisions, it will just be a matter of weeks before the controls go from being a temporary solution to becoming part of an even deeper problem.”

At 9:13 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,586.90, Down $15.00.
• Silver, $27.75, Down $0.28.