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FALCON ENERGY - UNDERVALUED WINNER TOP STOCK PICK
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sheerluck
Supreme |
16-Jun-2017 18:21
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Your reaction certainly do not suggest that you are just having FEG in your watch list. But this is just one of my baseless assumptions.
So you got facts and figures to discuss?
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siaolang
Member |
16-Jun-2017 17:39
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This is a new user who has read through the posts on this thread. Falcon Energy is on my watchlist and I' m trying to learn investing.   I dont know what are you suggesting but you like to make many baseless assumptions e.g    " Just use your original one and we can debate on the merit and risks of any companies." , " Falcon is going to be the next Swiber or Ezra." For your information it is a very straightforward " yes" or " no" answer to whether you are a shortsheller. At least declare your motivation and let people have a fair judgement of the posts you' ve made instead of manipulating and posting bias comments in the dark.   
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sheerluck
Supreme |
16-Jun-2017 15:54
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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By the way, no need to create a new account just to ask this question.   Just use your original one and we can debate on the merit and risks of any companies.
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sheerluck
Supreme |
16-Jun-2017 15:53
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Scammers paint beautiful stories to lure the unware.   When people caution them on no free lunch, and later it did turn out that it was a scam, they will blame the scammers. Stock market a bit different. Someone paint beautiful stories to lure the unware.   When people caution them and later it did turn out that it was the case, they will blame those that cautioned them labelling them in whatever way they want. You do your own homework.   Read comments on your own accord.   Act on your own choices.  
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siaolang
Member |
16-Jun-2017 15:11
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Sheerluck are you are shortseller? The effort you put in to bring the stock price down is beyond comprehension if you are not. At least MarcPh has stated clearly he has vested interest and refuted your point on the likelihood of Falcon becoming insolvent in the near future. 
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sheerluck
Supreme |
16-Jun-2017 13:41
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Seems great coming from a noteholders POV.   What about coming from a equity holder POV? If FEG just need some time to dispose off CHO then the focus will be how much time they are going to ask for.   How long will it take for FEG to cash out on CHO and how long are noteholders comfortable with? Now some figures for you to digest which i am pretty sure you can work out yourself as well. Based on Q3: Debt: US$181.5mil Cash: US$14.3mil Shareholders' s equity: US$274mil Net gearing: 61% BV: SGD48cts Now we know FEG recently sold 22% of CHO for SG$20mil.   $16mil to repay CIMB and $4mil keep as working capital.   FEG will recongise a loss of US$35mil, so using Q3 as well for an quick update Debt: US$169.3mil Cash: US$17.0mil Shareholders' s equity: US$239mil Net gearing: 64% BV: SGD41cts Now assuming FEG disposed of the remaining CHO at $60mil, repay that US$36mil note and recognise a loss of US$105mil on disposal, then Debt: US$133.3mil Cash: US$24.3mil Shareholders' s equity: US$133mil Net gearing: 82% BV: SGD23cts Now those CHO shares are collateral for loan from CIMB.   So to sell them off, FEG needs to pledges other asset as collateral or maybe CIMB prefer for FEG to repay them?   $40.2mil is about US$29mil.   Based on the last case, the remaining US$24.3 mil is insufficient to repay CIMB, so perhap some more asset sale? FEG has PPE with book value of US$387mil.   Has FEG made any impairment so far?   If they impairment anything from 25% to 30% (taking reference from recent Vallianz exercise) for FY audit, then that will knock out another US$106mil from their US$133mil giving a shareholder equity of US$26mil and BV of 4.5cts.   This is not taking into account any possible losses from their operation which seems to be the case going forward. This may seems like a pretty pressimistic view on FEG but one should be aware of the possible worst-case scenario.   It may or may not reach that point. So it is great that FEG is trying to sell CHO to repay noteholders but are you noteholders or equity holders?   Will it make equity holders better? DYDD  
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MarcPh
Senior |
16-Jun-2017 11:04
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Falcon' s effective-interest is 25% (50% of FTSG which has 50% stake in Keppel Jack-up rig). However FTSG is 50% owned by Falcon and 50% privately-owned by the two most important persons in Falcon. Quote from the announcement: It is also intended that subsequent to the said assignment, transfer or novation, the Guarantee will be replaced and reduced proportionately to reflect the Company& rsquo s 25% effective interest in the JV Company. http://falconenergy.com.sg/attach/sgx%20apr18.2013%20-%20fegannt.pdf CH Offshore' s market cap at current $0.25 is about $170mio. On paper, Falcon' s 65% stake is worth $110.5mio Taking a crazy-low valuation based on the sale-price to Zhang Haibo earlier, the low-ball realizable value is at least $59.6mio. (54.5% discount to paper value $110.5mio) There will be tonnes of buyers who will want to buy at such low-ball price.  To begin with this company don' t have crazy-level of debts, it is their earlier guarantees for the Keppel and china rigs that messed up their accounts. With most of the chinese rig obligations removed, let' s keep our fingers crossed and hope that the CH Offshore disposal rumour is true. Falcon will be able fetch $60-100mio for disposal of CH Offshore and fulfill most of their major debt obligations (Keppel rig and bonds). Have a good weekend.
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MarcPh
Senior |
16-Jun-2017 10:54
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Falcon' s effective-interest is 25% (50% of FTSG which has 50% stake in Keppel Jack-up rig). However FTSG is 50% owned by Falcon and 50% privately-owned by the two most important persons in Falcon. Quote from the announcement: It is also intended that subsequent to the said assignment, transfer or novation, the Guarantee will be replaced and reduced proportionately to reflect the Company&rsquo s 25% effective interest in the JV Company. http://falconenergy.com.sg/attach/sgx%20apr18.2013%20-%20fegannt.pdf
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AndyLoss
Master |
15-Jun-2017 23:30
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I think no option but to hold for 1 or 2 yrs... 
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MarcPh
Senior |
15-Jun-2017 15:05
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hi there, According to this article https://tradehaven.net/2017/06/12/singapore-bonds-fact-checking-the-news It speculated that bond holders meeting on the 14th of June is about  buying some time for the company to dispose of its majority stake in Chuan Hup Offshore, the only, debt-free mainboard listed O& G company in Singapore. The article appears to be right that the company is seeking maturity extension to dispose majority stake in CH Offshore. Taking clue from this week' s drop in CH Offshore share price and stablisation in Falcon' s share prics, all these make sense. As of today, Falcon' s bond is ranked as the second best performing SGD bond in the past 3 months. It reaffirms that recent rig cancellation is a credit positive development. This is why the bonds are not a serious concern. A recent IE Singapore financial support for Pacific Radiance is worth much more than that. https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/top-bonds ![]() Lastly, in my earlier post that you quoted, my main concern was the jack-up rig with Keppel. The good thing is that Falcon' s exposure is 50%. This is the main hurdle. Once it' s solved, the worst is over. ![]()  
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kangaroo11
Veteran |
15-Jun-2017 00:13
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Yawn! Going to sleep now, good night!!! | ||||
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sheerluck
Supreme |
14-Jun-2017 21:38
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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UPDATE ON INFORMAL MEETING WITH NOTEHOLDERS The Board wishes to inform Shareholders and Noteholders that the Company has indicated to Noteholders present that the Company intends to seek the indulgence of Noteholders for an extension of the maturity date of the Notes and waiver of all financial covenants by way of a consent solicitation exercise (&ldquo Consent Solicitation Exercise&rdquo ).  ********************************************************************************************************** Expected outcome!   FEG asking noteholder to extend and waive all financial convenants.   Exactly the same route as most O& G who finally throw the towel. Ask yourself this simple question.   If you are the note holders and having seens what Swiber and EZRA did to their bondholders, will you agree to this?   I expect this round noteholders will not agree unless they don' t want their money back.   FEG should feel the pricepressure tml.  
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kangaroo11
Veteran |
14-Jun-2017 15:20
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rather than wait for someone, you eat lah, not hungry meh? Lol!
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sheerluck
Supreme |
14-Jun-2017 14:26
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Informal meeting with noteholders today.   What will they be discussing? | ||||
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calvinlooi
Senior |
14-Jun-2017 13:42
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It seems to me that there is a someone who is trying to collect Falcon shares but no one willing to sell at low price, whenever there is a seller short at low price  the someone will eat up the shares. Really hope that the someone will eat up the shares to 0.06++ |
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danger
Supreme |
13-Jun-2017 16:58
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LOAD TO HUAT !!! COMING !!! TRADING AT 0.1 x BOOK VALUE !!! |
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ruready
Supreme |
13-Jun-2017 16:21
Yells: "Follow the micro penny , May be this is the last train" |
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Cheap cheap buy 
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ruready
Supreme |
13-Jun-2017 14:21
Yells: "Follow the micro penny , May be this is the last train" |
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Welldone one by one rescue ! 危 机 | ||||
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AndyLoss
Master |
13-Jun-2017 14:20
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no more guts la..)
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kangaroo11
Veteran |
13-Jun-2017 14:07
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You buy lor!!! Whahahahaha!!!
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