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KrisEnergy
Superkilat
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06-Oct-2017 19:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Waste my money from sino Grandness and vested here.
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sbscap
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06-Oct-2017 17:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Kris will surge only if First Reserve can find someone to take out their stake since this is a PE firm with an exit time-table. Keppel is very unlikely to be the one. Some China firm maybe. Three First Reserve funds hold this stock. Until then, the stock will keep rising with oil price and then get hammered by First Reserve. Meaniwhile, I think there is enough cash for modest capex, hence the negative FCF. Cambodian oilfields should be positive.
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TraderBen
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06-Oct-2017 17:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If oil reovers to ard $80.. all funds will start to look at O& G stocks.. with keppel as its backer. I am sure more funds will be interested as well. back to IPO price is 10X. cheeky..

but i wasnt hoping for so much.. Just 3-4 x is enough for me to cash out..

spangle      ( Date: 06-Oct-2017 15:43) Posted:

the point is where is the 10x gain going to come from? Okay lets say take it private. at what price?

even if you sell the whole of kris, what you get is really just the 2P assets. The 2C assets and unclarified assets will be at a great discount.

TraderBen      ( Date: 06-Oct-2017 09:55) Posted:

Whatever reasons u can spot.. I am sure Keppel can.. I am sticking my head with keppel and temasek.. I have 11 cents to lose more maybe 10 times more than that to profit.. in invesments.. NO RISK NO GIANS..
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spangle
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06-Oct-2017 15:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		the point is where is the 10x gain going to come from? Okay lets say take it private. at what price?

even if you sell the whole of kris, what you get is really just the 2P assets. The 2C assets and unclarified assets will be at a great discount.

TraderBen      ( Date: 06-Oct-2017 09:55) Posted:

Whatever reasons u can spot.. I am sure Keppel can.. I am sticking my head with keppel and temasek.. I have 11 cents to lose more maybe 10 times more than that to profit.. in invesments.. NO RISK NO GIANS..
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michaeltan
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06-Oct-2017 12:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Suggest that Keppel  to buy 10% more the shares and change the name to Keppel-Energy. The name of Kris is not so auspicious.
Anyway OG is part of the core busines before  SPC was sold to petrochina. cheeky 

TraderBen      ( Date: 06-Oct-2017 10:13) Posted:

Yes true enough.. But thet invested more than 200m on Kris. and now its market cap is less than what they invested. I think they will rather take it private rather than losing all. by taking it private they can control within themselves. so i see 11-12 cents is on a lower risk side for me. but sad for those vested at $1 and above.
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TraderBen
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06-Oct-2017 10:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes true enough.. But thet invested more than 200m on Kris. and now its market cap is less than what they invested. I think they will rather take it private rather than losing all. by taking it private they can control within themselves. so i see 11-12 cents is on a lower risk side for me. but sad for those vested at $1 and above.
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kangaroo11
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06-Oct-2017 10:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro temasek & keppel also got lose money before alot alot of times leh, their big but it doesnt meant they are 100% sure correct, 100% always correct.

TraderBen      ( Date: 06-Oct-2017 09:55) Posted:

Whatever reasons u can spot.. I am sure Keppel can.. I am sticking my head with keppel and temasek.. I have 11 cents to lose more maybe 10 times more than that to profit.. in invesments.. NO RISK NO GIANS..
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TraderBen
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06-Oct-2017 09:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Whatever reasons u can spot.. I am sure Keppel can.. I am sticking my head with keppel and temasek.. I have 11 cents to lose more maybe 10 times more than that to profit.. in invesments.. NO RISK NO GIANS..
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Superkilat
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06-Oct-2017 08:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sgx announcement today.
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michaeltan
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06-Oct-2017 08:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		KrisEnergy has recently inks deal for the combodian oil field development. As far as the OG is concern, it is a potential company of which Keppel OG owns 40%. You should stay out of counter since you don' t have confidence at all of this company. It will be too late for you when the company discover new oils and you are not believe keppel may takes Kris private. You think Temasek & Keppel are so stupid!

The company fundamental has not changed. Can you explain why there are strong support for the  IPO at $1.10/sh & RI at $0.38/sh?

spangle      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 19:44) Posted:

for point 2. the conclusion is oil price cant increase. and production levels cant increase. which means, at the current trajectory of 7,000 boepd, the company continues to burn cash.

AND, dont forget, they are still paying alot to their employees and management. Something which i can never stomach. Already losing cash but still pay  so much!  Every 4th Quarter of the year, track the employee expense. it is always sky high at 40-45% of revenues.

spangle      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 19:41) Posted:

funny how you guys continue to hold this position.

1. Even at 50-55 bucks oil price (i did by dd), the company' s FCF continues to be negative. FCF aside, just purely on cash flows, cash  flows are impacted because OCF is weak in the first place, and this is made worse with (1) 1.8m interest payments every quarter, (2) taxes, (3) continued capex from exploration and development.

2. for OCF to become stronger, either oil price or production levels need to increase. I capped oil price at 50-55 bucks and this will mean around 45-50 bucks realized oil price per barrel for the company, because kris usually sell its oil at a discount to Crude Brent.
Current production levels are low at around 7,000 boe per day. And to maintain this level of production, development capex required should be around 6-7m per quarter, based on historical trends.  I havent even consider the natural decline in rates of production, which is typically 3-5 years for oil wells. Which means to say, to maintain current boepd production rate, increasing development capex is required! This means that for them to increase production rates, they will have to spend even more on development capex (i.e. drilling of more wells). But the problem is, they cannot afford to because they dont have the cash!

3. Oil and gas properties (these are the ones that are producing oil) have been declining steadily since 2015. I dont look at exploration assets, because those are just fluff. If they dont continue to spend on exploration capex, they are not going to discover new oil fields, which will hurt them... But the problem is, they dont have the cash to do that and that exploration is hit or miss! This impactspoint number 2 more.

4. As such where is the value coming? Probably farm outs (i.e. selling of existing oil and gas assets, which they have done for one of the fields) But the problem is they can only sell at a massive discount due to the weak oil and gas industry now, plus kris is the one who is facing problems. Disstressed assets sell cheaply.

This company is a goner in my opinion and a ticking time bomb. What can save it? Finding more 2P assets. but this is only 1 step to the equation. They will then need to go to the market AGAIN, to ask for money (which will be tough) to develop the fields, and then first oil will come afterwards. the whole process will take maybe 2-3 years? Or otherwise, they discover oil, and then some private equity or bigger oil player comes around and takes kris private, which i think is dumb. I rather wait for the company to collpase then bid for the disstressed assets at cheap value
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Msport
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06-Oct-2017 08:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KrisEnergy%20Corporate%20Presentation%205Oct2017.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=473183
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spangle
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05-Oct-2017 19:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		for point 2. the conclusion is oil price cant increase. and production levels cant increase. which means, at the current trajectory of 7,000 boepd, the company continues to burn cash.

AND, dont forget, they are still paying alot to their employees and management. Something which i can never stomach. Already losing cash but still pay  so much!  Every 4th Quarter of the year, track the employee expense. it is always sky high at 40-45% of revenues.

spangle      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 19:41) Posted:

funny how you guys continue to hold this position.

1. Even at 50-55 bucks oil price (i did by dd), the company' s FCF continues to be negative. FCF aside, just purely on cash flows, cash  flows are impacted because OCF is weak in the first place, and this is made worse with (1) 1.8m interest payments every quarter, (2) taxes, (3) continued capex from exploration and development.

2. for OCF to become stronger, either oil price or production levels need to increase. I capped oil price at 50-55 bucks and this will mean around 45-50 bucks realized oil price per barrel for the company, because kris usually sell its oil at a discount to Crude Brent.
Current production levels are low at around 7,000 boe per day. And to maintain this level of production, development capex required should be around 6-7m per quarter, based on historical trends.  I havent even consider the natural decline in rates of production, which is typically 3-5 years for oil wells. Which means to say, to maintain current boepd production rate, increasing development capex is required! This means that for them to increase production rates, they will have to spend even more on development capex (i.e. drilling of more wells). But the problem is, they cannot afford to because they dont have the cash!

3. Oil and gas properties (these are the ones that are producing oil) have been declining steadily since 2015. I dont look at exploration assets, because those are just fluff. If they dont continue to spend on exploration capex, they are not going to discover new oil fields, which will hurt them... But the problem is, they dont have the cash to do that and that exploration is hit or miss! This impactspoint number 2 more.

4. As such where is the value coming? Probably farm outs (i.e. selling of existing oil and gas assets, which they have done for one of the fields) But the problem is they can only sell at a massive discount due to the weak oil and gas industry now, plus kris is the one who is facing problems. Disstressed assets sell cheaply.

This company is a goner in my opinion and a ticking time bomb. What can save it? Finding more 2P assets. but this is only 1 step to the equation. They will then need to go to the market AGAIN, to ask for money (which will be tough) to develop the fields, and then first oil will come afterwards. the whole process will take maybe 2-3 years? Or otherwise, they discover oil, and then some private equity or bigger oil player comes around and takes kris private, which i think is dumb. I rather wait for the company to collpase then bid for the disstressed assets at cheap value.

TraderBen      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 17:12) Posted:

closing near day high in green.. good signs..
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spangle
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05-Oct-2017 19:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		funny how you guys continue to hold this position.

1. Even at 50-55 bucks oil price (i did by dd), the company' s FCF continues to be negative. FCF aside, just purely on cash flows, cash  flows are impacted because OCF is weak in the first place, and this is made worse with (1) 1.8m interest payments every quarter, (2) taxes, (3) continued capex from exploration and development.

2. for OCF to become stronger, either oil price or production levels need to increase. I capped oil price at 50-55 bucks and this will mean around 45-50 bucks realized oil price per barrel for the company, because kris usually sell its oil at a discount to Crude Brent.
Current production levels are low at around 7,000 boe per day. And to maintain this level of production, development capex required should be around 6-7m per quarter, based on historical trends.  I havent even consider the natural decline in rates of production, which is typically 3-5 years for oil wells. Which means to say, to maintain current boepd production rate, increasing development capex is required! This means that for them to increase production rates, they will have to spend even more on development capex (i.e. drilling of more wells). But the problem is, they cannot afford to because they dont have the cash!

3. Oil and gas properties (these are the ones that are producing oil) have been declining steadily since 2015. I dont look at exploration assets, because those are just fluff. If they dont continue to spend on exploration capex, they are not going to discover new oil fields, which will hurt them... But the problem is, they dont have the cash to do that and that exploration is hit or miss! This impactspoint number 2 more.

4. As such where is the value coming? Probably farm outs (i.e. selling of existing oil and gas assets, which they have done for one of the fields) But the problem is they can only sell at a massive discount due to the weak oil and gas industry now, plus kris is the one who is facing problems. Disstressed assets sell cheaply.

This company is a goner in my opinion and a ticking time bomb. What can save it? Finding more 2P assets. but this is only 1 step to the equation. They will then need to go to the market AGAIN, to ask for money (which will be tough) to develop the fields, and then first oil will come afterwards. the whole process will take maybe 2-3 years? Or otherwise, they discover oil, and then some private equity or bigger oil player comes around and takes kris private, which i think is dumb. I rather wait for the company to collpase then bid for the disstressed assets at cheap value.

TraderBen      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 17:12) Posted:

closing near day high in green.. good signs..
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TraderBen
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05-Oct-2017 17:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		closing near day high in green.. good signs..
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kangaroo11
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05-Oct-2017 16:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		whahahahaha!!!

TraderBen      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 16:35) Posted:

If only that could happen! hahaha

kangaroo11      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 16:33) Posted:

how come so low? I' m targeting $1.8 by yr end lo
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TraderBen
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05-Oct-2017 16:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If only that could happen! hahaha

kangaroo11      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 16:33) Posted:

how come so low? I' m targeting $1.8 by yr end lol

TraderBen      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 11:39) Posted:

i second that.. i am targeting 0.18 before the end of the year.
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kangaroo11
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05-Oct-2017 16:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		how come so low? I' m targeting $1.8 by yr end lol

TraderBen      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 11:39) Posted:

i second that.. i am targeting 0.18 before the end of the year..

Superkilat      ( Date: 05-Oct-2017 11:37) Posted:

Time is up. It will shoot up anytime from now. This round should break 12.5 cents.


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sbscap
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05-Oct-2017 15:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		First Reserve is probably subjected to blackout, which may start around 3rd week Oct. The stock may recover next week, peaking when results are out. Results this quarter should be good. Stock price recovers, maybe head towards 13 and then First Reserve starts selling all the way down a couple of days after results to 11.5 again. I wonder who on earth would want to put money with such fund. Maybe Temasek? Lol.
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TraderBen
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05-Oct-2017 14:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		looking for strength... all the fake buy que and sell que
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Msport
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05-Oct-2017 12:43     
 
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 Alert Admin
Substantial Shareholders Number of shares held Percent of shares held
Keppel Corporation Limited 598,263,893 39.89%
First Reserve Corporation 494,367,469 32.96%
Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte. Ltd., Brokerage and Securities Investments 36,325,407 2.42%
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments 25,368,194 1.69%
OCBC Securities Private Limited, Securities Arm 10,649,788 0.71%

Company Description

KrisEnergy Ltd., an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Southeast Asia. The company holds working interests in five producing oil and/or gas fields in the Gulf of Thailand and onshore Bangladesh. It also participates in 11 blocks in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as KrisEnergy Holdings II Ltd. and changed its name to KrisEnergy Ltd. in July 2012. KrisEnergy Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is based in Singapore.
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