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China Fishery - Low PE
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nea03177
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02-Mar-2015 16:26
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Recovering. A few brokerages recommend buy.
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kirana
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02-Mar-2015 14:39
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To me it depends on personal investment horizon. Anything below $3.00 is a buy for long term. Anything $2.40-2.80 is a buy for medium term. | ||||
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mrwonderful
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02-Mar-2015 10:24
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Yeah, I like an objective post, even though I' m vested in it. I have gone long and short on different stocks before, so I' m not biased to buy buy buy. If people say stuff like it will hit $3.50, $4.00, it also makes neutral investors really skeptical. I think it ultimately boils down to this: If you think UE will be taken over, you may want to buy this stock. If not, you can either stay away or go short. Your choice.
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AldarSorouh
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02-Mar-2015 10:15
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I' m not trying to argue the price down. Like my comments in the sinograndness thread, I just present the facts and let people decide. Hearing opinions from too many yes man is not healthy. Oh, and though it might be down now, an announcement of a bid may reverse losses - who knows?
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mrwonderful
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02-Mar-2015 10:05
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Now down 2%. Results not meeting expectations? Or sell on news? |
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LongJiamPass
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02-Mar-2015 08:54
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seems like big fish reading forums, expect the unexpected guys. wont be surprise if it gaps down instead. |
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superuser
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02-Mar-2015 03:22
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As an investor of UE, I am not too concerned whether it gap up by 10 cents or not. However, I am confident that the share price will go beyond $2.90 during intraday trade. Many fund managers would be adding UE to their portoflio after a stellar performance. I would not be surprised if UE share price goes back to $3.20 by end of March. |
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skychar
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01-Mar-2015 21:48
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I have been silently reading this thread and will concur what kiara had speculated all these while, rumors had it that ocbc was offered 3.50 but rejected it. Why did ocbc rejected it? Is it other contenders like uxx, capxxx or even sph offered a better price? Mr C should be the one buying these past week and it would not be long when this stock will be halted again and the final price will be offered to buy the 30 per cent stake. So my friends, the time to buy is now when the expected target offered price should be more than 3.50. Even if it does not materialize, this stock gives a dividend of 2.6 per cent based on current price of 283, consistently, better than any bonds available. So not much risk as far I can see, agree? |
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skychar
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01-Mar-2015 21:24
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I agree, it' s not unreasonable to expect it to gap up at least 10c Soley based on dividends alone, AldarSorouh, if u not vested, no need to try so hard to argue the price down leh, ibanalystslave is vested u know ? Let the market decide lor
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IBanalystslave
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01-Mar-2015 21:10
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If you go by the market theory that all factors are reflected in the price already then Mondays price should at least reflect the 0.10 dividend. I substantiate this with precedence, open up UE' s chart go to 2014 February and you' ll see that after the good results, the price was adjusted upwards for the next two days. And please quote me properly, I said my forecast is as such and that the move should be, not the price will be as such.
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AldarSorouh
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01-Mar-2015 20:56
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Dude, that' s what I meant when I said that " Fortunately, UE is in a different industry and has attracted potential suitors." Maybe I need to highlight that phrase. As a property company, a suitable valuation is RNAV with a discount of 20 - 30%. Presence of potential suitors may/ will help eliminate the discount. But to claim that the share price will " gap up to at least $2.93 and to test $3 up to possible $3.10" is not really responsible. A correct conclusion would be the fact that any price movements would depend on the market' s interpretation of macro and company specific factors.
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IBanalystslave
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01-Mar-2015 20:23
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Because for a property development company, a significant portion of earnings will come from revaluation and capital gains. While for a company like NOL, they don' t exactly revalue the ships and revenue comes from charter fees. What' s more, UE used to be a conglomerate with businesses from different sectors and this demands what they call a conglomerate discount which is 20-30% of the latest NAV or what they call RNAV. If you look at a few of the recent company reports, this is shown as a notice of revaluation of assets. UE' s business now consists of 90+% of property which demands a lower discount or removal of the conglomerate discount, it' s RNAV is also estimated in consensus with most analysts to be about 3.60, couple that with the supposed suitors, reduced gearing ratio to about 0.5 and the 0.10 dividend payment, you would anticipate a increase in share price. An apple has to be compared to an apple not an orange. Just being critical with the utility of the analogy you used. But yes, the market will reaffirm the value in the next few days. Cheers
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AldarSorouh
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01-Mar-2015 20:12
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Not vested. I don' t understand why some investors were so happy that revenues and reported NPAT increase even though these line items included results from discontinued operations. One should look at the reported EPS on Pg 14 of the results. Even when accounting for discontinued operations, diluted EPS was down 19% year-on-year from 24.0 cents to 19.4 cents. If you only compare the EPS from continuing operations, it was down 60% year-on-year from 18.2 cents to 7.2 cents. It' s true that NAV per share (Pg 14) has increased by 3% to $2.93 and gearing has also declined. But one just has to look at NOL to understand that it' s possible for a stock to trade below NAV if the company is performing poorly in an extremely competitive industry. Fortunately, UE is in a different industry and has attracted potential suitors. Conclusion: I don' t know what will happen tommorrow. But Mr Market is always right.
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kirana
Senior |
01-Mar-2015 19:53
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I would say its going to be between 2.40 - 3.10 range bound. |
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nea03177
Senior |
01-Mar-2015 18:23
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Your message not easy to understand. You mean knock their head against a tree! Unlikely will drop to 2.40.
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pirateboy
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01-Mar-2015 18:10
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some say $2.40, others say $3.10. tomorrow, the market will reveal! the wrong one, touch the tree and come back in 1 minute and knock it down 50. those who make wrong prediction without being vested knock it down 100! |
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IBanalystslave
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01-Mar-2015 05:24
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Revenue: up 90+% Overall profit: up 100+% Debt/equity ratio: down 50+% NAV up Total Dividend: $0.10 Value of quoted securities: Mflex up significantly Overall attractiveness as takeover target and current bidders in the picture as additional motivators. forecast: to gap up to at least $2.93 and to test $3 up to possible $3.10 |
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mrwonderful
Veteran |
01-Mar-2015 02:48
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Saw that on BT too, but like you said, that is net profit from continuing operations. If you read their income statements, their net profit which includes discontinued operations, where they sold off their E& C arm, is much higher. They also used much of their divestment gains to reduce their debt ratio by half, which is a good sign IMO. NAV rose from $2.84 to $2.93. Again, any analysts can correct me if I am wrong. I am quite rusty with my accounting.
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AldarSorouh
Member |
01-Mar-2015 01:04
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You should not be celebrating when its net profit from continuing operations is down 49% to $46m. Most likely will gap down on Monday. United Engineers 2014 net profit down 49% to S$46m
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kirana
Senior |
28-Feb-2015 09:15
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This fairy tales should end with "they live happily forever and wver after". Something like that. | ||||
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