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Latest Forum Topics / Asian Pay TV Tr  Post Reply
Asian Pay Tv Tr
RogerTech
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19-Jul-2017 17:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		for those who are nervous holding APTT:
(1) IF APTT cash flow is negetive since IPO day to now, banks will not extend credit line
(2) IF the FCF is going to be negative forever, banks will cut off creditline
(3) IF the business model is UNSUSTAINABLE, banks will be the first of detecting it
SO FAR, none of them occur.

timothylim890      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:44) Posted:

Indeed as I had pointed out in an earlier post, APTT has strong operating cashflow (185m in 2016) which can more than cover its current interest on debt (55m in 2016 assuming 4.2% effective interest on about $1.3b debt). Even if it takes on more debt to fund CAPEX, operating cashflow can still cover.

Operating cashflow for 1Q2017 was 43.6m which is on track for the rest of 2017.

Perhaps for those more concerned, could delve a bit more into the breakdown for cashflows to ensure there are no fishy figures?

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:41) Posted:

how can it be? I quickly went thru the Annual Reports
let' s take 2013 AR as example:
(1) Operating cash flow is positive:S$79,704,000 (i.e. almost SGD 8 mio)
(2) Cash inflow from Financial activities > Cash outflow for investing activities (730,503,000 > 713,979,000)
In the past 2 years, the CAPEX will definitely make FCF negative, but it is tentative!
APTT have strong operating cashflow generation capability!

 
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timothylim890
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19-Jul-2017 16:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Indeed as I had pointed out in an earlier post, APTT has strong operating cashflow (185m in 2016) which can more than cover its current interest on debt (55m in 2016 assuming 4.2% effective interest on about $1.3b debt). Even if it takes on more debt to fund CAPEX, operating cashflow can still cover.

Operating cashflow for 1Q2017 was 43.6m which is on track for the rest of 2017.

Perhaps for those more concerned, could delve a bit more into the breakdown for cashflows to ensure there are no fishy figures?

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:41) Posted:

how can it be? I quickly went thru the Annual Reports
let' s take 2013 AR as example:
(1) Operating cash flow is positive:S$79,704,000 (i.e. almost SGD 8 mio)
(2) Cash inflow from Financial activities > Cash outflow for investing activities (730,503,000 > 713,979,000)
In the past 2 years, the CAPEX will definitely make FCF negative, but it is tentative!
APTT have strong operating cashflow generation capability!

 

kangaroo11      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:00) Posted:

Yes mah, already using FCF like u suggest.
But still negative leh.
NOT TENTATIVELY. IT IS NEGATIVE.
HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE.
NEGATIVE NOT ONLY IN THE RECENT YRS, BUT RECENT PRIOR FEW YRS, so i cant comprehend..
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RogerTech
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19-Jul-2017 16:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		correction: 
(1) Operating cash flow is positive:S$79,704,000 (i.e. almost SGD 80 mio)

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:41) Posted:

how can it be? I quickly went thru the Annual Reports
let' s take 2013 AR as example:
(1) Operating cash flow is positive:S$79,704,000 (i.e. almost SGD 8 mio)
(2) Cash inflow from Financial activities > Cash outflow for investing activities (730,503,000 > 713,979,000)
In the past 2 years, the CAPEX will definitely make FCF negative, but it is tentative!
APTT have strong operating cashflow generation capability!

 

kangaroo11      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:00) Posted:

Yes mah, already using FCF like u suggest.
But still negative leh.
NOT TENTATIVELY. IT IS NEGATIVE.
HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE.
NEGATIVE NOT ONLY IN THE RECENT YRS, BUT RECENT PRIOR FEW YRS, so i cant comprehend..
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RogerTech
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19-Jul-2017 16:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		how can it be? I quickly went thru the Annual Reports
let' s take 2013 AR as example:
(1) Operating cash flow is positive:S$79,704,000 (i.e. almost SGD 8 mio)
(2) Cash inflow from Financial activities > Cash outflow for investing activities (730,503,000 > 713,979,000)
In the past 2 years, the CAPEX will definitely make FCF negative, but it is tentative!
APTT have strong operating cashflow generation capability!

 

kangaroo11      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 16:00) Posted:

Yes mah, already using FCF like u suggest.
But still negative leh.
NOT TENTATIVELY. IT IS NEGATIVE.
HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE.
NEGATIVE NOT ONLY IN THE RECENT YRS, BUT RECENT PRIOR FEW YRS, so i cant comprehend...

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 15:00) Posted:

The key points shared by both APTT and KIT in common:
1.  it is totally wrong to evaluate APTT using EPS / PER.
2. You need to use FCF
3. The ahead-of-schedule CAPEX by APTT tentatively make the FCF negative, will rebound strongly after FY2018/FY2019
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kangaroo11
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19-Jul-2017 16:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes mah, already using FCF like u suggest.
But still negative leh.
NOT TENTATIVELY. IT IS NEGATIVE.
HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE.
NEGATIVE NOT ONLY IN THE RECENT YRS, BUT RECENT PRIOR FEW YRS, so i cant comprehend...

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 15:00) Posted:

The key points shared by both APTT and KIT in common:
1.  it is totally wrong to evaluate APTT using EPS / PER.
2. You need to use FCF
3. The ahead-of-schedule CAPEX by APTT tentatively make the FCF negative, will rebound strongly after FY2018/FY2019.

kangaroo11      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 13:48) Posted:

Regardless, APTV EPS and subsequently you mention FCF also been negative, for yrs 
And i cant comprehend how Keppel Infra Trust is even comparable to APTV.
Different trade, different geographical location, different end consumers.
How is a watermelon even similar to a honeydew? 
Just bcos both fruits are round?

 
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RogerTech
Member
19-Jul-2017 15:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The key points shared by both APTT and KIT in common:
1.  it is totally wrong to evaluate APTT using EPS / PER.
2. You need to use FCF
3. The ahead-of-schedule CAPEX by APTT tentatively make the FCF negative, will rebound strongly after FY2018/FY2019.

kangaroo11      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 13:48) Posted:

Regardless, APTV EPS and subsequently you mention FCF also been negative, for yrs 
And i cant comprehend how Keppel Infra Trust is even comparable to APTV.
Different trade, different geographical location, different end consumers.
How is a watermelon even similar to a honeydew? 
Just bcos both fruits are round?

 

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 11:46) Posted:

latest DPU data of Keppel Infra Trust (extracted from shareinvestor.com):
EPU: 0.01068
Trailing EPU: 0.01222
PE: 52.434
Trailing PE: 45.835

KIT annual DPU: 0.93 x 4 (SG cents) --> although annual EPS is just 1.068 SG cents
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Morello
Veteran
19-Jul-2017 14:35     
 
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Yells: "In it for the long haul"
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 Alert Admin 		yes made your point

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 11:46) Posted:

latest DPU data of Keppel Infra Trust (extracted from shareinvestor.com):
EPU: 0.01068
Trailing EPU: 0.01222
PE: 52.434
Trailing PE: 45.835

KIT annual DPU: 0.93 x 4 (SG cents) --> although annual EPS is just 1.068 SG cents
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kangaroo11
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19-Jul-2017 13:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Regardless, APTV EPS and subsequently you mention FCF also been negative, for yrs 
And i cant comprehend how Keppel Infra Trust is even comparable to APTV.
Different trade, different geographical location, different end consumers.
How is a watermelon even similar to a honeydew? 
Just bcos both fruits are round?

 

RogerTech      ( Date: 19-Jul-2017 11:46) Posted:

latest DPU data of Keppel Infra Trust (extracted from shareinvestor.com):
EPU: 0.01068
Trailing EPU: 0.01222
PE: 52.434
Trailing PE: 45.835

KIT annual DPU: 0.93 x 4 (SG cents) --> although annual EPS is just 1.068 SG cents
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RogerTech
Member
19-Jul-2017 11:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		latest DPU data of Keppel Infra Trust (extracted from shareinvestor.com):
EPU: 0.01068
Trailing EPU: 0.01222
PE: 52.434
Trailing PE: 45.835

KIT annual DPU: 0.93 x 4 (SG cents) --> although annual EPS is just 1.068 SG cents
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DoChun
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17-Jul-2017 08:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Suddenly so many ppls interested in this counter..
interesrting..
Will hold longer..
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RogerTech
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16-Jul-2017 11:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The heavy CAPEX due to " Taiwanese Legislative Yuan approved a package of Cable Law amendments" will be gradually over in FY2018/FY2019.
​ The Law amendments force APTT to spend the big CAPEX ahead of schedule by at least 3 years.
​ after that, FCF will become a big positive amount.
Again, don' t use EPS to evaluate. check Keppel Infra Trust PPT Preso.
​

kangaroo11      ( Date: 15-Jul-2017 12:01) Posted:



Unsustainable Dividend Payout

The Taiwanese Legislative Yuan approved a package of Cable Law amendments which became effective on 8 January 2016. The key impact to TBC is the requirement to switch-off analogue broadcasting and to deploy digital set-top boxes to all of its franchise areas as a condition for the renewal of its operating licences, scheduled for review in 2017-18. Coupled with TBC&rsquo s expansion into the greater Taichung region, these key developments will correspondingly lead to escalated capital expenditure in the coming years.

APTT adopts a distribution policy in which it intends to distribute 100 percent of its distributable free cash flow to unitholders on a quarterly basis. APTT has reported positive cash flow from operating activities consistently every year. However, if we were to take capital expenditure as well as interest costs paid into consideration, the available free cash flow will not be sufficient to cover the distribution to unitholders. This implies that the distribution to unitholders had to be funded by debts or available cash. Meanwhile, tracing APTT&rsquo s balance sheet a couple of years back would reveal that the available cash in its balance sheet was mostly attributable to proceeds from its IPO rather than from retained earnings from its business operations. This could be a cause for concern for APTT&rsquo s distribution sustainability, if it is simply paying out distribution from its offering proceeds rather than from its continuous business cash flow.

We noted that APTT&rsquo s distribution to unitholders is always greater than its reported net profit, resulting in a payout ratio of more than 100 percent every year. The unsustainable distribution could already be reflected in its declining distribution per unit (DPU) over the years. Assuming a FY16 DPU at the high side of $0.07, it is still a 15 percent drop from FY15&rsquo s DPU of $0.0825.

In view of the unusually high distribution payout ratio out of net profit and free cash flow, APTT&rsquo s distribution is unlikely to be sustainable over the long run.

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laksaman57
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15-Jul-2017 22:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.theedgesingapore.com/it-wise-invest-business-trusts
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kangaroo11
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15-Jul-2017 12:01     
 
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 Alert Admin

Unsustainable Dividend Payout

The Taiwanese Legislative Yuan approved a package of Cable Law amendments which became effective on 8 January 2016. The key impact to TBC is the requirement to switch-off analogue broadcasting and to deploy digital set-top boxes to all of its franchise areas as a condition for the renewal of its operating licences, scheduled for review in 2017-18. Coupled with TBC&rsquo s expansion into the greater Taichung region, these key developments will correspondingly lead to escalated capital expenditure in the coming years.

APTT adopts a distribution policy in which it intends to distribute 100 percent of its distributable free cash flow to unitholders on a quarterly basis. APTT has reported positive cash flow from operating activities consistently every year. However, if we were to take capital expenditure as well as interest costs paid into consideration, the available free cash flow will not be sufficient to cover the distribution to unitholders. This implies that the distribution to unitholders had to be funded by debts or available cash. Meanwhile, tracing APTT&rsquo s balance sheet a couple of years back would reveal that the available cash in its balance sheet was mostly attributable to proceeds from its IPO rather than from retained earnings from its business operations. This could be a cause for concern for APTT&rsquo s distribution sustainability, if it is simply paying out distribution from its offering proceeds rather than from its continuous business cash flow.

We noted that APTT&rsquo s distribution to unitholders is always greater than its reported net profit, resulting in a payout ratio of more than 100 percent every year. The unsustainable distribution could already be reflected in its declining distribution per unit (DPU) over the years. Assuming a FY16 DPU at the high side of $0.07, it is still a 15 percent drop from FY15&rsquo s DPU of $0.0825.

In view of the unusually high distribution payout ratio out of net profit and free cash flow, APTT&rsquo s distribution is unlikely to be sustainable over the long run.
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kangaroo11
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15-Jul-2017 11:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Free cash flow negative
Out more than In.
Rising debt
Stagnant revenue growth
Just make sure your out before the music stops. Lol
 

laksaman57      ( Date: 15-Jul-2017 07:51) Posted:

Anyway to figure out their free cash flow from their financial balance sheet in annual report ?

RogerTech      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 20:12) Posted:

This is a sort of utilities stock. we should use Free Cash Flow instead of EPS to calculate the dividend.
​ EPS may include accounting related item like asset depreciations or big CAPEX or amortizations -> which is not material given the fact APTT is a monopoly in some areas of Taiwan.
​ check Keppel Infra Trust -> sometimes their EPS is minus, but FCF is positive, they still can pay dividend.
​ Bear in mind: APTT has economical moat, it is monopolistic in the serviing areas in Taiwan
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laksaman57
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15-Jul-2017 07:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Anyway to figure out their free cash flow from their financial balance sheet in annual report ?

RogerTech      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 20:12) Posted:

This is a sort of utilities stock. we should use Free Cash Flow instead of EPS to calculate the dividend.
​ EPS may include accounting related item like asset depreciations or big CAPEX or amortizations -> which is not material given the fact APTT is a monopoly in some areas of Taiwan.
​ check Keppel Infra Trust -> sometimes their EPS is minus, but FCF is positive, they still can pay dividend.
​ Bear in mind: APTT has economical moat, it is monopolistic in the serviing areas in Taiwan.

TMW1986      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 19:06) Posted:

You are right. The dividends not sustainable i think
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TMW1986
Master
14-Jul-2017 20:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Depends on cash in bank. Borrowing and debt etc. Alot of factors. We shall see but taiwan economy not good. Aptv has reached it fair value already.

RogerTech      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 20:12) Posted:

This is a sort of utilities stock. we should use Free Cash Flow instead of EPS to calculate the dividend.
​ EPS may include accounting related item like asset depreciations or big CAPEX or amortizations -> which is not material given the fact APTT is a monopoly in some areas of Taiwan.
​ check Keppel Infra Trust -> sometimes their EPS is minus, but FCF is positive, they still can pay dividend.
​ Bear in mind: APTT has economical moat, it is monopolistic in the serviing areas in Taiwan.

TMW1986      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 19:06) Posted:

You are right. The dividends not sustainable i think
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RogerTech
Member
14-Jul-2017 20:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Banks are smart and sharply discerning: if they know APTT is using borrowed $ to pay dividend, Banks will NOT extend the credit line.
​ During investor dialog session early this year, the CEO/CFO disclosed: seveval banks were queueing for providing the credit line$.
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RogerTech
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14-Jul-2017 20:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is a sort of utilities stock. we should use Free Cash Flow instead of EPS to calculate the dividend.
​ EPS may include accounting related item like asset depreciations or big CAPEX or amortizations -> which is not material given the fact APTT is a monopoly in some areas of Taiwan.
​ check Keppel Infra Trust -> sometimes their EPS is minus, but FCF is positive, they still can pay dividend.
​ Bear in mind: APTT has economical moat, it is monopolistic in the serviing areas in Taiwan.

TMW1986      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 19:06) Posted:

You are right. The dividends not sustainable i think.

laksaman57      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 17:20) Posted:

How is it possible that dpu of 0.065 really sustainable when eps only 0.04 ? 😒


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TMW1986
Master
14-Jul-2017 19:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		You are right. The dividends not sustainable i think.

laksaman57      ( Date: 14-Jul-2017 17:20) Posted:

How is it possible that dpu of 0.065 really sustainable when eps only 0.04 ? 😒

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laksaman57
Supreme
14-Jul-2017 17:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How is it possible that dpu of 0.065 really sustainable when eps only 0.04 ? 😒
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